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July 12, 2021 - Brief Issue 226

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Fauci Predicts Vaccines Will Get Full Approval, Says It’s a “Technical Issue”; Advocates for Local Vaccine Mandates (Health & Science)

CDC: Fully Vaccinated Students and Teachers Don’t Need to Mask (Health & Science)

Breath-based Coronavirus Tests In Development (Health & Science)

Tech Companies Buy Vaccines on Behalf of Taiwan (Around the World)

Thai Health Workers Vaccinated with Sinovac Infected (Around the World)

Europe Struggles to Vaccinate Undocumented Immigrants (Around the World)

South Africa Extends Tight Restrictions Again (Around the World)

Iranians Get Vaccinated in Armenia (Around the World)

D.C. Tenants Struggle to Get Rent Relief as Use It or Lose It Deadline Approaches (U.S. Government & Politics)

WSJ: Economists Say Inflation Will Last for Years (U.S. Economy)

Politico-Harvard Survey: Americans Divided on Vaccine Mandates (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,854,127 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 607,157 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 334,151,648 vaccine doses, with 55.5% of all Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 48% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older  67.6% have received at least one dose, and 58.8% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 186,902,683 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,033,883 deaths.

Fauci Predicts Vaccines Will Get Full Approval, Says It’s a “Technical Issue”; Advocates for Local Vaccine Mandates

On Sunday, top medical adviser Anthony Fauci, stated that he is confident that the FDA will provide full approval to Covid vaccines (Politico). Fauci called full approval “only a technical issue,” noting, “It's the FDA dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s. But there's no doubt in my mind that these vaccines are going to get full approval because of the extraordinary amount of positive data.” Fauci made the comments on ABC’s “This Week” pointing to the issue of some who, according to him, “when you use the terminology ‘emergency use authorization,’ they kind of think it's a tenuous data showing that it works so that it's safe.” Fauci’s comments come as many medical experts have called for the FDA to provide full approval pointing to the emergency use status as a stumbling block for efforts to encourage people to get vaccinated (Politico).

Also on Sunday, Fauci advocated for the importance of local vaccine mandates (Politico). Fauci told CNN’s Jake Tapper, “I have been of this opinion, and I remain of that opinion, that I do believe at the local level, Jake, there should be more mandates,” adding, “There really should be. We're talking about life-and-death situation. We have lost 600,000 Americans already.” Fauci, however, did not call for a federal mandate, and the Biden administration has repeatedly said it does not seek a federal mandate.

CDC: Fully Vaccinated Students and Teachers Don’t Need to Mask

On Friday, the CDC updated its guidance on masking to say that fully vaccinated teachers and students do not need to wear masks when they return to school in the Fall (Politico). Politico writes, “The CDC said people two and up who are unvaccinated should continue to wear masks in school, particularly in indoor and crowded settings. Students and teachers should also try maintain at least 3 feet of physical distance to reduce transmission, according to the updated guidelines.” The CDC, however, noted that local decisions will be important and that some schools may choose to require masks given local conditions and emphasized that schools should be deliberate about loosening their Covid practices stating, “They should remove them one at a time and monitor closely (with adequate testing) for any increases in COVID-19 case”

Breath-based Coronavirus Tests In Development

Breathalyzer tests, like the ones used to detect alcohol use, have long been seen as having potential for use in detecting diseases by scientists. Now, developers are hoping that the portable, easy-to-use devices can be turned into a tool for detecting the coronavirus. One such device, called SpiroNose and developed by the Dutch company Breathomix, was recently used to test competitors for the EuroVision Song Contest (NYT). The device analyzed the chemical compounds in each contestant’s breath to detect signs of a coronavirus infection; if the performers tested negative they were allowed onstage to compete. Others are in development across the world; in May Singapore’s health agency granted provisional authorization to two breath-based tests and in the U.S., researchers at Ohio State University have applied for FDA authorization for their breathalyzer. 

Bonus Read: “Bat Scientists Warn That the World May Never Know Covid-19 Origins,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Asia

Tech Companies Buy Vaccines on Behalf of Taiwan

On Sunday BioNTech and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Co., a licensed distribute of BioNTech’s vaccine in China, issued a joint statement saying that they would sell 10 million shots to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., an iPhone assembler better known as Foxconn, and a private charity controlled by Foxconn founder Terry Gou (WSJ). The vaccines will be purchased through a drug distributor and then donated to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The roundabout arrangement effectively ends a geopolitical fight with China over access to the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccines, which Taiwan has been trying to buy for months. Taiwan, a democratically-ruled island of roughly 24 million people that Beijing claims as part of Chinese territory, has claimed that China has been blocking its access to vaccines made in Europe, which China has denied. As the Wall Street Journal writes, “In the end, the arrangement required a delicate dance in which the Taipei government, while refusing Beijing’s donation of vaccines, signaled that it was willing to acquire the BioNTech vaccine indirectly—as long as the doses didn’t physically come from mainland China—and then allowing Foxconn and TSMC to negotiate on its behalf.”

Thai Health Workers Vaccinated with Sinovac Infected 

Thailand’s health ministry said on Sunday that more than 600 medical workers who received two doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine have been infected with Covid-19. Data from the health ministry showed that 618 health workers out of 677,348 who were vaccinated became infected between April and July. An expert panel has recommended that a third dose be given to health workers to trigger immunity, according to health official Sopon Iamsirithawon. "This will be a different vaccine, either viral vector AstraZeneca or an mRNA vaccine, which Thailand will be receiving in the near term," he said, adding that the recommendation will be considered on Monday (Reuters). Indonesia, which also relied heavily on Sinovac vaccines, said on Friday that it would be administering doses of the Moderna vaccine to its medical workers.

Bonus Read: “One Village Quelled the Virus. The Next Was Overrun. It’s a Bad Sign for India.” (NYT).

Europe

Europe Struggles to Vaccinate Undocumented Immigrants

Undocumented immigrants are being overlooked in some European countries as they race to inoculate residents against Covid-19 even though the European Union published guidance calling for member states to include all immigrants in vaccination programs regardless of their legal status (WaPo). An estimated 4.8 million unauthorized immigrants lived in 32 European countries as of 2017, according to the Pew Research Center. And even though studies show they are more vulnerable to the coronavirus, many countries have excluded them from vaccination drives, either in policy or practice. And with vaccination policies and procedures varying widely across Europe, low vaccination rates among some immigrant groups are an ongoing problem that is getting more serious as the Delta variant circulates. A survey by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control showed that around 64% of adults have received at least one dose of a vaccine and roughly 44% are fully vaccinated. 

Africa

South Africa Extends Tight Restrictions Again

On Sunday, South Africa announced that its tight Covid-19 rules would be extended for another 14 days, including a ban on gatherings, a curfew from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m., and a prohibition on the sale of alcohol (Reuters). The country is currently experiencing its third wave of infections driven by the more contagious Delta variant. "Our health system countrywide remains under pressure," President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a televised address to the nation. A new record of 26,000 cases in a 24-hour period was set earlier this month and hospitals have been at the breaking point since then. The vaccination campaign in South Africa has been slow, with 4.2 million doses administered to the population of 60 million. But Ramaphosa said on Sunday that a government committee was working on adding Sinovac’s CoronaVac vaccine to the program. In the meantime, the African Union and European Union have agreed for a local pharmaceutical company, Aspen, to deliver more than 17 million Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses to South Africa and other African countries over the next three months. But even as the vaccination campaign picks up speed, it isn’t enough to combat the current surge. “Africa has just marked the continent’s most dire pandemic week ever. But the worst is yet to come as the fast-moving third wave continues to gain speed and new ground,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organization’s regional director for Africa (AP). “The end to this precipitous rise is still weeks away. Cases are doubling now every 18 days, compared with every 21 days only a week ago,” she added Thursday.

Middle East

Iranians Get Vaccinated in Armenia

Thousands of Iranians are going to Armenia to be vaccinated against Covid-19 as the Iranian government struggles to get its vaccination campaign up and running. Over the past two weeks, Iran’s average daily caseload has increased by 62% and only about 2% of Iran’s 84 million people have been vaccinated (NYT). But in neighboring Armenia, a country of three million people, vaccine doses are flowing freely because vaccine hesitancy due to misinformation and conspiracy theories run rampant. As a result, officials announced in May that foreigners could get vaccinated without registration and mobile clinics were set up on the streets to make getting vaccinated even easier. Iranians are able to enter the country without a visa and the drive from the border to the Armenian capital Yerevan is about seven hours, though recent videos  posted on social media showed a line of cars at the border and claimed the wait time to cross was 13 hours. The number of flights between Tehran and Yerevan have increased recently and are currently sold out until late August. Armenian officials have not said how many foreign nationals have received vaccinations. 

U.S. Government & Politics

D.C. Tenants Struggle to Get Rent Relief as Use It or Lose It Deadline Approaches

The Washington Post reports that many D.C. tenants are struggling to get rent relief as a September “use it or lose it” deadline for federal monies slated to provide such relief approaches (WaPo). The Post writes, “As the District hustles to meet an end-of-September, use-it-or-lose-it deadline to distribute tens of millions in federal emergency rent relief, volunteer- and nonprofit-led efforts have sought to plug holes in a government response that critics have described as reactive and impersonal. To date, the city has given out less than a fifth of the $200 million Congress awarded the District in December, according to D.C.’s deputy mayor for planning and economic development, John Falcicchio.” The Post notes that the city “has acknowledged that the application has been buggy and the lengthy turnaround time for distributing the funds is problematic” while contending that it has made improvements. Falcicchio told the Post that in an attempt to encourage use, the city will set a “soft deadline” of August 15, writing, “Renters who apply after that date will still be considered for rent and utilities reimbursements, Falcicchio said, but under U.S. Treasury Department rules, if the District doesn’t dole out $130 million by Sept. 30, it may not be allowed to keep what is left of its $200 million allotment.” The city will also offer cash incentives. But advocates contend that public awareness is not necessarily the key factor at work. The Post writes, “according to several District officials, lawyers and advocates, the problems with the District’s program to distribute the federal aid known as STAY DC (Stronger Together by Assisting You) go far beyond a lack of public awareness or interest. The application itself may be crippling the process.”

HHS Secretary Says Vaccine Comments Taken Out of Context

On Thursday, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra contended that Republican critics of his comment that “it is absolutely the government’s business” to know who is vaccinated takes his comments out of context (Politico). Becerra tweeted regarding the reaction to his comment earlier in the day that “Some comments I made today are being taken wildly out of context. To be clear: government has no database tracking who is vaccinated. We're encouraging people to step up to protect themselves, others by getting vaccinated. It's the best way to save lives and end this pandemic.” Becerra’s initial comment came amid the Biden administration’s push to get more people vaccinated including an emphasis on door-to-door efforts. That push drew criticism from Republicans. Representative Andy Biggs (R-AZ) tweeted, “It’s NONE of the [government’s] business knowing who has or hasn’t been vaccinated” and Texas Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw tweeted, “How about don’t knock on my door. You’re not my parents. You’re the government. Make the vaccine available, and let people be free to choose.” Addressing the comments on CNN, Becerra stated, “Perhaps we should point out that the federal government has spent trillions of dollars to try to keep Americans alive during this pandemic,” adding, “So it is absolutely the government’s business,” adding, “knocking on a door has never been against the law.” Becerra’s comment drew criticism, prompting his tweet that he was being taken out of context. For example, Republican Senator Ron Johnson called Becerra, “Big Brother Becerra.” 

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “The Soaring Market that Threatens to Derail the Economic Recovery,” (Politico).

WSJ: Economists Say Inflation Will Last for Years

The Wall Street Journal reports that in a survey it conducted, economists increasingly predicted that inflation will continue for years (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high inflation would go and for how long, compared with their previous expectations in April. The respondents on average now expect a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023. That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993.” The assessments come as the Commerce Department’s measure of inflation increased 3.4% in May compared to the same period last year, the largest increase since the 1990s. The Journal writes that in their survey economists described “a generational shift from the lower inflation of the past two decades, a shift that could create new challenges for households, policy makers and investors who came to expect inflation closer to or below 2%.” Meanwhile on Friday, the Federal Reserve released a report that maintains its general view that inflation will not be lasting and that current inflationary pressures are due to “largely transitory factors.”

Bonus Read: “Banks Are in the Economy’s Waiting Room,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Politico-Harvard Survey: Americans Divided on Vaccine Mandates

A Politico-Harvard survey found that Americans are about evenly divided on the question of mandating vaccination for students to attend school - 50% support, 49% oppose - and for employees to return to work - 53% support, 46% oppose - (Politico). However, the stances are polarized by party affiliation. Politico writes, “Most Democrats support forcing employees and students to be vaccinated before they return to work or the classroom, and approve of government-issued documents certifying their status. Republicans oppose the government or most employers infringing on their individual choice.” Despite the polarization, on some issues, including mandating vaccination for teachers and health workers and on requiring proof of vaccination for boarding flights or cruise ships, there was bipartisan support. 

Analysis & Arguments

Sam Russek writes on how remote work is killing the businesses located in Houston’s tunnels (Texas Monthly).

Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern explain how endangered species are being traded illegally even more now since tourism has diminished due to the pandemic (Foreign Policy).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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