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Asia in Review

No. 44, October/2019, 5

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to the fifth issue of ‘Asia in Review’ (AiR) in October providing you an update on the latest developments in constitutional politics, law reform and governance as well as in geopolitics and international relations in Asia.

I wish you an informative read.

With the best wishes,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Police shift to early intervention tactics in curbing protesters' violence

(dql) Amid violence during last weekend’s protest rally [Reuters], the Hong Kong police admitted at a press conference on Monday that, in order to curb violence in the city, they have switched to more aggressive tactics of early intervention, including intercepting masks-wearing or  black-dressed during stop-and-search operations in MTR stations, on the streets and in targeted vehicles. The police also announced that front line staff are now wearing white tags allowing identification of their unit and section. [South China Morning Post]

In an earlier development last week, Hong Kong’s legislature formally withdrew the extradition bill that prompted the ongoing protests while Hong Kong’s High Court issued an interim injunction on a Department of Justice’s request to help protect police from doxxing by banning the publication of personal information and photographs of police officers and their families without their consent. Rights activists raised concerns over this “serious restriction of freedom of expression.” [BBC] [Quartz] [Deutsche Welle]

Meanwhile, pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong has been banned from running in the upcoming district council elections on 24 November citing his advocacy of Hong Kong’s ‘self-determination’ as a breach of electoral laws of the city. Wong denounced his disqualification as “political screening and censorship.”[Hong Kong Free Press]

China's new cryptography law

(dql) China has passed a new cryptography law in a move to regulate the utilization and management of cryptography, to facilitate the development of the cryptography business and to ensure the security of cyberspace and information, according to [Reuters].

The law, effective on January 1, 2020, was endorsed on Saturday by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and came shortly after President Xi Jinping’s urged the country to speed up research and investment into the development of blockchain technology to allow China to “occupy a commanding position in innovation and gain new superiority in this industry”. [Xinhua 2, in Chinese] [South China Morning Post]

The law is widely seen as paving the way for the roll out of China’s digital currency. [Technode] [beincrypto]

China set to crack down on manipulated economic data  

(dql) In an attempt to clamp down on submission of fraudulent economic data, the Chinese government has announced a reform of the country's current statistics law. According to the bill released last week, harsher punishments will be introduced for local leaders, mayors and governors if found guilty of cheating. 

The move comes amid growing skepticism over the credibility of official economic data in China. New figures for China’s 6% economic growth in the third quarter of this year released by the National Bureau of Statistics’ were challenged by an outspoken Chinese economist citing an increase of government revenue of 3% from a year earlier and a drop in corporate profits from January to August to 1.7%. [South China Morning Post]

South Korea:  Rallies continue in Seoul over reform of prosecution

(dql) The reform of the prosecution in South Korea continues to divide the country’s society. [AiR No. 43, October/2019, 4]

While a large group of liberal protesters staged a rally on Saturday in support of the reform, containing as most controversial part the creation of an independent body to investigate corruption allegations involving senior government officials, conservatives took to streets to protest the proposed anti-corruption investigation body. Leaders of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party joined a rally on Friday demanding the withdrawal of the reform bill on the independent corruption investigation body and the resignation of President Moon Jae-in, among others. [Korea Times]

At the center of the controversy are diverging perceptions of the proposed independent agency. On the one hand, liberals press for this agency, to be headed by a Cabinet minister, to crackdown on the exclusive power of prosecutors to investigate and indict people accused of wrongdoing without any other government agency able can check their power. Meanwhile, conservatives question the unchecked powers of the new body and the power to demand the police or prosecution to hand over even an open case. [Korea Herald]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Judge imposes death penalty on 16 people 

(nj/jk) After 6 months of trial 16 people have been sentenced to death by a court near the capital  of Bangladesh, Dhaka, for burning a Bangladeshi student alive for accusing the principal of the school of sexual harassment. Prior to the killing the perpetrators urged the victim to withdraw her complaint, which she refused. [The Straits Times] [Aljazeera]

The student reported sexual harassment by the principal of her school in late March and on April 6, the young woman was lured on the rooftop of her school where classmates tied her hands and feet and set her on fire. 

In a country where social stigma leads to a majority of sexual violence being unreported, the case provoked indignation, and funeral prayers in her honor were attended by thousands in her home town. Prime Minister Hasina reacted by promising that “none of the culprits will be spared legal action”. [Asia in Review, 4/4/2019]

For well-founded research on causes and consequences of violence against women in Bangladesh see: [UN Women]

Bangladesh: doubt on Rohingya relocation

(jk) The relocation of thousands of Rohingya refugees that was apparently agreed upon [Asia in Review, No. 43, October/2019, 4]has been heavily doubted by human rights NGO Fortify Rights who, based on on-the-ground research, claim that they were hard-pressed to identify a single refugee who had even been consulted - let alone agreed to - relocating to the island. [Straits Times]

Sri Lanka: Dark future for Sri Lanka's Democracy?

(jk) The presidential election next month may well return a member of the Rajapaksa family to the presidency. Some observers fear that should this happen, Sri Lanka's democracy may not survive. It is feared that Gotabaya may repeat some of the patterns of his brother's reign, which critical observers characterize by nepotism, human rights abuses, and a foreign policy oriented towards the People's Republic of China not always strictly in the national interest. [Australian Strategic Policy Institute] 

The orientation towards the PRC is something that the presidential candidate would "restore", according to one of his advisors. [Reuters]

Pakistan: Opposition starts "long march" on Islamabad, demanding PM's resignation 

(jk) Opposition forces in Pakistan have started a "long march" from Karachi to Islamabad this past weekend. They plan to get to Islamabad by October 31 where their protests against the government and PM Khan will culminate. [Al Jazeera] 

India: BJP does a little worse than expected in state elections 

(jk) India saw two state elections last week for which the results show that the ruling BJP fared slightly worse than many had expected after it swept to victory for Modi's second term not long ago. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party is leading in the western state of Maharashtra, home to Mumbai, but it ended up with fewer seats than in the previous state election in 2014. 

In the northern state of Haryana, many of the BJP's ruling ministers lost their seat and the party failed to win a majority. Congress, although behind the BJP, is looking at doubling its seats there and may even throw its hat in the ring to forge an alliance that could form the government. [The Economic Times] [India Today 1 , India Today 2]

Incidentally, in Jammu and Kashmir local body elections in which a small number of elected representatives voted for higher body officials were held amid a largely continuing communications lockdown. The elections were boycotted by the main opposition parties, including the Indian Congress. [Straits Times]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Indonesia: President Widodo appoints Prabowo Subianto as his Defence Minister

(ls) Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled his new 38-member Cabinet, which contains politicians from across the aisle as well as professionals. More than a third of the ministers are from his previous government. The new Defence Minister is Prabowo Subianto, the former army general and chairman of the opposition Gerindra party who challenged Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections. After the election, Prabowo first rejected the results and asked for a constitutional court ruling, which ruled in Widodo’s favor. [Straits Times]

Prabowo’s appointment has met with criticism from human rights groups and others who have questioned his fitness to lead a ministry that should be spearheading military reforms. As commander of the Army’s special forces, Kopassus, Prabowo was allegedly involved in the forced disappearance of prodemocracy activists between 1997 and 1998. He has also been accused of being involved in other human-rights abuses, including during the Army’s East Timor counter-insurgency operations in the 1970s. Prabowo has repeatedly denied all such allegations. [Jakarta Post]

It appears that Widodo’s strategy favors compromise over confrontation. Some observers note that, on the one hand, there is a risk is that tensions between Jokowi and Prabowo will not subside and that the choice could pave the way for the politicization of the armed forces and police. On the other hand, the choice could bring political stability after five years of heated rivalry. [BBC]

Indonesia: Violent clashes as Widodo visits Papua

(ls/nj) Three people have been killed in clashes between police and rebels in Indonesia’s Papua region. The violence erupted as President Joko Widodo was visiting the restive region. However, the incident appeared unrelated to weeks of unrest that saw dozens killed when riots broke out in the region’s Wamena city last month, with some victims burned alive when buildings were set on fire. Since mid-August, Papua has been hit by waves of mass protests and violence over claims of racism and calls for self-rule. [Star Online]

Myanmar: Intensified fights in Rakhine state

(ls/nj) In intense fighting in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, the ethnic armed group Arakan Army took more than 50 people as prisoners, most belonging to the security forces. 14 people have been rescued in the meantime. Arakan Army rebels reported many dead in military attacks on boats carrying soldiers. The rebels draw on deep-seated historical resentment felt by some in Rakhine toward the ethnic Bamar majority that dominates the central government. The Rohingya situation is not directly linked to the Arakan Army’s fight to win greater autonomy. [Reuters]

Philippines: Mayor who is on Duterte’s “narco list” is killed 

(ls) The mayor of a town in Misamis Occidental province in the Philippines was shot dead on Friday. David Navarro was killed outside the Office of the Ombudsman while in police custody and being transported to the city prosecutor’s office for inquest proceedings on an assault complaint. Navarro was tagged by President Rodrigo Duterte as a “narco-politician.” In March, Duterte released a list of 46 local government officials, including Navarro, allegedly linked to illegal drug activity. In the Philippines, local politicians and journalists are frequent victims of attacks. [PhilStar] [Rappler]

Thailand: Government coalition wins one seat in by-election

(ls) In a by-election to the Thai parliament, a Future Forward Party candidate was defeated by a politician of Chartthaipattana, a party in the Palang Pracharath Party-led coalition government. The by-election was called after the previous Future Forward Party MP, who had won the district earlier this year, resigned due to health problems. The victory for the government camp comes after two small parties each occupying one parliamentary seat had left the coalition earlier this year. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Oath saga about to be ended

(ls) The House committee on the prevention and suppression of corruption of the Thai parliament has called Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to clarify his failure to complete the recital of the oath of office in July. However, Prayut rejected the call, saying the issue was over already. In a related ruling by the Constitutional Court earlier this year, the court ahd said oath-taking is a political issue and concerns a “specific relationship” between the administrative branch and the monarchy. It declined to rule on the matter. [Bangkok Post]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Mike Pence sweeping swipe at Beijing 

(dql) Amid ongoing trade negotiations between China and USA, in which both sides “have come close to finalizing parts of a phase one deal”, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, [CNBC] US Vice-President Mike Pence in speech delivered last week made it clear that Chinese-US relations are defined by a structural and systematic rivalry by calling China a “strategic and economic rival” in a “great power competition that is under way”. 

Praising US President Trump’s “clear eyed visions of the US-China relationship” and his “bold and decisive actions to correct the failed policies of the past to strengthen America”, Pence sharply criticized Beijing on a wide range of issues, including unfair trade practices, militarization of the South China Sea, pressure on Taiwan's demo-cracy, which he described as “better path for all Chinese people”, increasing intervention and curtailing of rights in Hong Kong, and human rights violations in Xinjiang. Nevertheless, Pence stressed that the US does not intend to decouple from China, but seeks “engagement with China and China’s engagement with the wider world but engagement in a manner consistent with fairness, mutual respect, and the international rules of commerce.” [Reuters][Straits Times] [Youtube]

China’s Foreign Ministry hit back and accused Pence of “sheer arrogance and hypocrisy” and “political prejudice and lies”, adding that a “small handful of American politicians headed by Pence [..]. are trying to interfere with China’s internal affairs and hamper China’s stability and development. [New York Times] [South China Morning Post]

China to host intra-Afghan talks after 4-party meeting in Moscow

(dql) Last week representatives of China, Russia, Pakistan and the USA met in Moscow and renewed support for a “comprehensive and sustainable peace agreement.” In a joint statement all four countries welcomed Beijing’s proposal for an intra-Afghan meeting of representatives of the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, other Afghan leaders and the Taliban in Beijing this week. [Voice of America]

In early September the year-long dialogue between the USA and the Taliban was halted following deadly insurgent attacks in Kabul, causing the death of an American soldier and others.

China angered over European Parliament’s human rights award for Uighur economist

(dql) In a move angering China, the European Parliament last week awarded the 2019 Sakharov Prize to Uighur economist Ilham Tohti, a fierce critic of China‘s treatment of the Uighur people. China, which jailed Thohti for life over charges of separatism in 2014, blamed the European Parliament for “celebrating a terrorist”. [Straits Times]

The move appears even more provocative as Tohti was awarded the prize on the same day when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with EU’s foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini in Beijing to discuss foreign policy issues. [South China Morning Post]

South Korea’s parliament ratifies UK free trade agreement

(dql) South Korea's National Assembly on Monday ratified the free trade agreement between Seoul and London which will be effective automatically in case of a no-deal Brexit. In case of an agreement on a Brexit deal between Britain and the European Union the FTA will be implemented after the transition period. [European Views]

Taiwan set to buy US F-16 fighter jets for 8 billion USD

(dql) Taiwan's parliament passed a bill to the purchase of F-16 fighter jets from the United States and to create a special budget of 8 billion USD. It would be the first purchase of US combat planes in 27 years. [Focus Taiwan]

Nepal refuses China on extradition treaty and is protecting Tibetan exiles 

(jk) As previously reported, a couple of weeks ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping made important visits to two of China’s direct neighbours, India and Nepal [Asia in Review, No. 42, October/2019, 3].

While Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not discuss political topics such as Kashmir and focused on improving economic exchanges, Xi and Nepal's President Bidya Devi Bhandari announced a "strategic partnership of cooperation featuring ever-lasting friendship for development and prosperity”, signed a number of MoUs, and celebrated promises of investing around US$500 million in different development projects [India Today], including US$21 million for the Nepalese Army in “disaster relief materials” over the next three years [Reuters]. It was the first Chinese president in 22 years to visit the country, and a rail link with Tibet was one of the focal points of the visit. 

Nepal is home to thousands of exiled Tibetans, and their treatment has long been an issue of tension. After the visit however, it is important to point out that Nepal refused to conclude an extradition treaty that China was apparently after. [The Economic Times]

U.S. suspends trade benefits for Thailand

(ls) The United States have suspended US$1.3 billion in trade preferences for Thailand because of its failure “to adequately provide internationally-recognized worker rights”, such as protection for freedom of association and collective bargaining. The suspension will take effect in April 2020 and covers 573 types of goods which will face a higher import tariff of 4.5%. The U.S. action comes after Thailand took steps against fishing industry abuses, prompting the European Commission to lift the threat of a ban on Thai seafood. [South China Morning Post]

The U.S. is Thailand’s second-largest export market. However, the Commerce Ministry said that only 0.01% of overall Thai exports would be affected by the changes to the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). Thai exports have struggled this year because of the strength of its currency and the fallout of the US-China trade war. The U.S. previously granted GSP benefits to Thai products worth a total of $1.8 billion, though Thailand has not made full use of the eligibility. [Bangkok Post] [Straits Times]

South China Sea: Philippines lifts moratorium as Vietnam prepares for new tensions with China 

(ls) The Philippines will lift a 2018 moratorium on foreign scientific research in its exclusive economic zone so it can exploit marine resources. The previous ban was issued in February 2018 on an area called the Benham Rise, which the United Nations in 2012 declared part of the Philippines’ continental shelf. This year, two Chinese research vessels were spotted in Philippine-controlled waters, which became the subject of a diplomatic protest in August. In another incident, the Philippines protested the presence of more than 100 Chinese fishing vessels. Earlier this month, however, the Philippines welcomed the Russian oil firm Rosneft to explore the waters. [Reuters 1]

Meanwhile, a Chinese oil survey vessel that has been in the center of a tense standoff with Vietnamese vessels in the South China Sea left Vietnamese-controlled waters after more than three months. According to observers, it is likely that now China will send an oil rig to drill in the area where the vessel had conducted seismic surveys in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, which could result in a sharp rise of tensions. However, also Vietnam has partnered up with Rosneft. [Reuters 2]

Russia boosts up Philippines’ defence industry

(nj) Less than a month after Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte´s second state visit to Russia, latest developments have revealed that defence relations between the two countries are improving. Russia is eager to provide their arms technology in order to support the Philippines in developing their own defence industry. Though some of the defence equipment might not be compatible with the ones provided by the U.S., the Philippines is likely to cooperate. [The South China Morning Post]

Background Reading

Russia silently returns to South Asia to balance the US and China

(jk) Moscow announced its return by supporting India on the Kashmir issue after New Delhi abrogated Article 370, calling it an internal matter of India. A close look at Russia’s moves in South Asia, from Afghanistan to Bangladesh reveals that Moscow is positioning itself as an independent actor in the region, bold enough to balance both the US and China." [Observer Research Foundation]

The role of social media companies in shaping political discourse in Indonesia

(ls) The New Mandala has published a piece by Aldila Irsyad who argues that social media companies have more control than the government of Indonesia in limiting the freedom of expression of its citizens. Irsyad discusses the question to what extent they will control the political discourse in Indonesia. [New Mandala]

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