U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June and ISM reports on manufacturing and services are due this holiday-shortened week. 

Republicans are rushing to get the tax-and-spending megabill to President Trump's desk by Friday.

Also, the Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy in the U.K. at 10 a.m. ET Monday. Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated discussion at 1 p.m. in Aspen.

In economic data, ISM’s Chicago business barometer, due at 9:45 a.m., will provide a measure on the state of trade and the economy.

The June jobs report is due at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in June, according to a Wall Street Journal poll. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a tick to 4.3%.

The European Central Bank said it will respond in a “forceful or persistent” manner to big swings in inflation, reflecting the lessons learned from the postpandemic price surge in its latest strategy review.

In common with other central banks, the ECB was criticized for being too slow to respond to a pickup in inflation in 2021 that saw the annual rate peak at above 10% by late 2022.

Central bankers concede that they underestimated the impact of interruptions to supply on prices, having been more used to focusing on demand surges as a source of inflation.

The Federal Reserve's targeted inflation measure ticked slightly higher in May, but the numbers didn't show a big tariff-related upswing. Prices rose by 2.3% over the 12 months through May, according to the personal-consumption expenditures price index, a reacceleration from 2.1% a month earlier.

The Senate geared up for an unpredictable battle Monday over final passage of the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill,” after Republicans narrowly advanced the measure in a 51-49 weekend vote.

The 940-page legislation is driving a wedge between the GOP’s two wings, just as the party is racing to pass the measure this week. Centrists have raised concerns about cutting benefit programs and straining state budgets, while fiscal conservatives are pushing for even more cuts to rein in federal budget deficits.

8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Investment Position
9:45 a.m.: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
7 p.m.: U.S.-United Kingdom Economic Prosperity Deal comes into effect by the end of this month

9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
10 a.m.: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10 a.m.: RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
11 a.m.: Global Manufacturing PMI
4 p.m.: Domestic Auto Industry Sales

China will need stronger policy support in the later part of this year, UOB economist Ho Woei Chen writes in a note. That would come when the high base and payback from strong front-loading in 1H could contribute to a sharp reversal in growth momentum, she adds. It only expects China's central bank to cut rates by an additional 10 bps in 4Q, with the seven-day reverse repo rate ending the year at 1.30%, she says. The prospect of another 50bp cut to the reserve requirement ratio remains, UOB adds.  — Jiahui Huang

Demand for U.S. equities rises as market fears about geopolitical and trade tensions ease, Saxo's Charu Chanana says in a note. Rising prospects of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the coming months are also driving the rally, she says. A wide range of sectors are outperforming, "indicating that this is not just a tech story anymore", Chanana says. The U.S. stocks index S&P 500 climbs more than 4% in June. — Miriam Mukuru

TD Securities says April's GDP report—showing a 0.1% decline—means the Bank of Canada is edging closer to another rate cut. The firm's view is based on the contents of the latest BOC minutes. TD says the minutes indicate that growth needs to be close to zero before BOC officials consider further rate relief. That threshold was cleared with the April GDP data, which also suggests another drop in May. The other threshold is a slowing inflation outlook. Data this week indicates core CPI is slightly moderating, and the BOC might seek further evidence of moderation when June inflation data comes out in July. — Paul Vieira

• Japan’s industrial production increased modestly in May, but the rebound is likely to be temporary due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and concerns over a global slowdown. Industrial production rose 0.5% in May from the previous month, after declining 1.1% in April, data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Monday. (WSJ)
• China’s manufacturing activity declined for the third straight month in June as trade frictions with the U.S. continued to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index for June–the first full month after the China-U.S. trade truce was reached in London–came in at 49.7, edging up from May’s 49.5 and matching the 49.7 tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. (WSJ)
• Canada announced late on Sunday that it is rescinding a digital-services tax in a bid to salvage trade discussions with the U.S. after President Trump paused talks on Friday. (WSJ)
• Public calls for lower interest rates of the kind directed by President Trump toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are not a threat to the central bank’s independence, the Bank for International Settlements said Sunday. (WSJ) 
• Conflict in the Middle East has pushed inflation higher for the first time in 2025 and weakened confidence in the eurozone, according to data released Friday. Consumer prices were 0.8% higher in France and 2.2% higher in Spain in June than a year earlier compared with 0.6% and 2% in May, respectively, according to European Union harmonized data. Both were slightly stronger readings than expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. (WSJ) 
• Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in economies that have been blighted by armed conflict, which has become more common over the course of this century, the World Bank said Friday. (WSJ)
• Another flare-up in the Taiwan dollar’s strength is unwelcome news for the island’s exporters and life insurers. The New Taiwan dollar hit a three-year high against the greenback on Friday, bringing year-to-date gains to around 12%
• The S&P 500 on Friday touched its first new high since February, capping a dizzying 23% rally from the depths of April’s tariff-induced selloff.
• Services activity in the middle of the U.S. eased in June but remained positive, while expectations for future activity stayed favorable, according to a monthly survey by the Kansas City Fed. (Dow Jones Newswires)

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.