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ECB’s Chief Economist Sees Prolonged Period Of High Inflation

  • European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said eurozone inflation will remain high despite a recent fall in energy prices.
  • The ECB raised its key interest rate last week, the first time in almost three years, due to energy price jumps from a Middle East conflict.
  • Lane stated concerns about central banks diverging from the Federal Reserve are not relevant for the ECB, which will pursue its objective.

 
BOJ Deputy Governor Warns of Risk from Delaying Rate Hikes

  • Bank of Japan Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino warned that tightening monetary policy too slowly poses a greater danger than raising interest rates.
  • Consumer prices, excluding fresh food, climbed 1.4% in May from a year earlier, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
  • The yen’s persistent weakness is an inflationary headache, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warning of decisive steps against speculative movements.
Russia’s Central Bank Cuts Key Rate After Economy Contracts

  • Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 14.25% from 14.5% for the ninth straight meeting.
  • The central bank said further rate reductions are possible but may not fall as rapidly as expected due to higher government spending.
  • The central bank stated fiscal policy will be more accommodative, potentially requiring a higher key rate path than expected.
Warsh Overhauls How the Fed Talks and Keeps Markets Guessing on Rates

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh trimmed the policy statement and declined a rate forecast, launching task forces while pledging to bring inflation down.
  • Warsh’s removal of forward guidance left the committee’s direction unclear.
  • Analysts expressed uncertainty about Warsh’s stance, with some crediting his inflation pledge and others questioning his communication approach.
Swiss Central Bank Holds Rates as War Pushes Up Inflation Forecast

  • The Swiss National Bank kept its key policy rate at zero and signaled increased readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market.
  • The central bank raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 due to higher energy prices from the Iran war.
  • The Swiss franc cooled against the euro and U.S. dollar since early March, following an agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
Norway’s Central Bank Holds Key Rate But Still Signals a Hike Later This Year

  • Norges Bank held its key policy rate at 4.25% on Thursday, but still expects to lift the rate later this year.
  • Annual core inflation in Norway remains elevated at 3.4%, staying above the 2% target for over four years.
  • Norges Bank forecasts now point to a policy rate just above 4.5% by year-end, up from previous signals.
Canada Producer Prices Continue to Rise, Climbing 1.2% in May

  • Canada’s industrial product price index rose 1.2% in May and 13.6% year-over-year, the steepest since mid-2022, due to the Iran war.
  • Raw material prices, tracking costs paid by manufacturers, increased 0.7% in May and 33.4% from a year earlier.
  • Consumer price inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year in April, its fastest pace in almost two years, largely due to gasoline prices.
Irish Central Bank Cuts Growth Forecast as Volatility Roils Eurozone

  • Ireland’s central bank expects the country’s GDP to fall by 2.7% this year, reversing a prior 1.3% growth forecast due to a large drop in U.S. exports.
  • Ireland’s GDP is highly volatile due to large U.S. pharmaceutical and technology companies, which drove a 12.3% expansion in 2025.
  • The volatility of Ireland’s GDP complicates eurozone forecasts; the ECB’s 2026 projection did not include Ireland’s revised Q1 data.
U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

  • U.S. jobless claims fell to 226,000 in the week through June 18, signaling employers held back from widespread layoffs.
  • Continuing claims totaled 1.81 million in the week through June 6, up from a revised 1.79 million a week earlier.
  • While jobless claims have ticked up in recent weeks, economists say the readings are still low and suggestive of a healthy labor market.
SEC Proposes to Eliminate Quarterly Reporting Requirement for Public Companies

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed amendments that would allow public companies the option to file reports semiannually.
  • Companies could file one semiannual report and one annual report, replacing three quarterly reports and one annual report.
  • The proposal aims to provide companies greater flexibility in choosing a reporting frequency that best serves their needs.
CME Sues U.S. Regulator to Stop Kalshi From Offering Popular ‘Perp’ Futures

  • CME Group sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday to block Kalshi from listing perpetual futures.
  • CME alleges the CFTC violated U.S. law by classifying Kalshi’s perpetual futures as futures, not swaps, allowing Kalshi to avoid strict regulations.
  • CME claims the CFTC’s approval inflicts “textbook competitive injury” as perpetual futures target its retail customer base.
 

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