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Auto Sales Slump; Studies Show Surprising Effects of Tariffs; QXO Builds Acquisition War Chest

By Mark R. Long | WSJ Logistics Report

 

Toyota said it wouldn't be able to keep footing the bill for tariffs, and that prices would go up. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

General Motors and several rivals posted year-end sales slumps, a slowdown that is expected to continue as consumers resist higher prices. GM said its sales fell 7% in the final quarter of 2025, with Honda, Hyundai, Mazda and Nissan also reporting declines toward year’s end.

Analysts and automakers forecast declining sales this year after three years of annual gains, the WSJ’s Christopher Otts and Sharon Terlep write. Belt-tightening American car buyers are colliding with tariff costs that companies probably won’t keep eating. Toyota, for one, said it won’t be able to keep footing the bill for tariffs, and that prices would go up for the Japanese auto giant and for its competitors. Honda posted a 9.5% drop in U.S. sales, with its production hit hard by a semiconductor shortage.

Further cuts to interest rates could lower car payments and boost demand, and a new tax deduction for auto-loan interest also could spur purchases of U.S.-assembled vehicles. In addition, automakers are looking for a U.S. trade deal with Canada and Mexico that would reduce the current 25% tariff on vehicles assembled in those countries.

  • Honda said it will suspend operations at three Chinese factories longer than planned because of a semiconductor shortage. (Nikkei Asia)
 
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Number of the Day

42,200

Net orders of Class 8 heavy-duty trucks and tractors in December, more than double the previous month and up 21% from a year earlier, according to FTR

 

Economy & Trade

The highest tariffs in almost a century haven’t caused the massive surge in inflation many economists feared. A pair of new studies show that shouldn’t have come as a surprise.

Data analyzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicate previous tariff hikes actually slowed down price growth, the WSJ’s Konrad Putzier writes. A separate paper from Northwestern University economists shows tariff increases only nudged inflation a little higher. Both papers, however, conclude that tariffs tend to hurt the economy and that a blow to consumer and business demand likely explains why the impact on inflation is so limited.

The San Francisco Fed economists found a 1-percentage-point increase in tariffs went along with a 0.6-percentage-point drop in inflation. They also found rising tariffs went hand-in-hand with rising unemployment. The Northwestern economists found the price-boosting effects of tariffs were muted because rising import costs were counterbalanced by falling demand.

 
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Quotable

“Just to raise production by half a million barrels per day will take them two years and at least $10 billion, so you can just imagine the scale of what we are dealing with.”

— Amrita Sen, founder of research consultancy Energy Aspects, on reviving Venezuela’s oil industry
 

Building Supplies

QXO Chairman and CEO Brad Jacobs rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on April 30, 2025. BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS

QXO said funds affiliated with Apollo Global Management and others would invest $1.2 billion to help the building-supplies company run by serial entrepreneur Brad Jacobs build its war chest for acquisitions. Paul R. La Monica of Barron’s writes that the new convertible perpetual preferred stock the investors plan to buy can be converted into common stock at $23.25 a share, an 18% premium to Friday’s closing price.

The investors in the new shares, which will pay a 4.75% annual dividend, are committing to buy the stock to help fund one or more acquisitions through July 15, the company said. QXO last year bought Beacon Roofing Supply for $11 billion. It was outbid last year by Home Depot in its effort to acquire drywall distributor GMX. Jacobs said in August that QXO, which analysts expect to generate about $11 billion in revenue this year, aims to reach $50 billion in annual sales within a decade, largely through acquisitions.

 

In Other News

  • U.S. factory activity unexpectedly decreased in December, with the Institute of Supply Management’s purchasing managers index falling to 47.9 from 48.2 in November. (WSJ)
  • A private gauge of China’s service activity slowed to 52.0 in December, the softest expansion in six months. (WSJ)
  • U.S. copper prices reached a new record high, surpassing a previous peak from July, driven by strong demand and limited supply. (WSJ)
  • The U.S blockade of Venezuela halted virtually all oil movements out of the country, except for shipments made for Chevron, according to Kpler. (WSJ)
  • BlueScope Steel received a takeover offer from Australia’s SGH and U.S.-based Steel Dynamics that values the steelmaker’s equity at $8.8 billion. (WSJ)
  • Defense contractor L3Harris Technologies agreed to sell a 60% stake in the Aerojet Rocketdyne product lines to private equity firm AE Industrial Partners, in a deal valued at $845 million. (WSJ)
  • AT&T plans to relocate its global headquarters from downtown Dallas to a nearby suburb, a move that would deal another blow to the city’s reeling central business district. (WSJ)
  • Marcus Lemonis, former chief executive of Camping World, has been appointed as the new CEO of Bed Bath & Beyond. (WSJ)
  • The White House shifted control of the licensing process for deepwater ports to the Maritime Administration from the Coast Guard, aiming to speed energy-project backlogs. (gCaptain)
  • Ocean carriers are adding capacity to serve the Asia-Northern Europe trade as shippers race to move cargo before Chinese factories close for the Lunar New Year holiday. (Journal of Commerce)
  • Germany’s Transport Overseas Group acquired Cleveland’s Allround Forwarding Midwest and opened a U.S. headquarters in the Ohio city. (DC Velocity)
  • R.J. Corman Railroad named former BNSF Railway operations chief Matt Igoe as its chief operating officer. (TrainsPRO)
  • Delaware-based Trinity Logistics said it acquired Minnesota’s Granite Logistics for an undisclosed sum. (Transport Topics)
 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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