Major U.S. importers are facing off against the world’s largest ocean carriers in an early gut check for trade in 2026.

The WSJ’s Logistics Report writes that retailers are expecting favorable deals as they kick off talks next month for ocean shipping contracts that link factories in Asia to warehouses in America. 

Spot rates to ship boxes from China, Japan and South Korea to the U.S. West Coast have been falling for weeks and recently dropped below long-term contract rates, according to Oslo-based transportation-data firm Xeneta.

Shipping-industry specialists say rates are falling because the supply of space on containerships exceeds demand as carriers take delivery of new ships bought with the proceeds from pandemic-era profits.

Imports are expected to fall for most of the first half of this year compared with year-ago levels. The declines mask a healthy demand for goods because they compare to an abnormal influx of cargo last year as importers raced to get ahead of tariffs.

The National Retail Federation recently forecast that nationwide import volumes for the first half of this year will be down about 2% compared with last year. Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at San Francisco-based forwarder Flexport, said most importers he talks to expect full-year import volumes to be flat.

World trade flows grew at a faster rate last year despite a jump in U.S. tariffs, but are expected to slow this year as duties take their toll. The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Hannon writes that the volume of goods moving across national borders increased by 4.4% in 2025, a pickup from the 2.5% rate of growth recorded in 2024, according to figures from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

The acceleration is a surprise, given the sharp rise in U.S. tariffs. Shortly after President Trump announced his country-specific tariffs in April, the World Trade Organization forecast trade flows would fall in 2025. However, many tariff rates were subsequently lowered, while few of America’s trading partners retaliated by raising their own duties. Chinese businesses that faced high duties found buyers elsewhere, while the boom in AI-related investment boosted U.S. imports from other parts of Asia.

Nvidia reported record sales and income for the most recent quarter. (WSJ)

Discount retailer TJX posted a jump in profit and sales during the most recent quarter. (WSJ)

DoorDash is winding down delivery services in Qatar, Singapore, Japan and Uzbekistan. (WSJ)

Republican and Democratic lawmakers are pushing the Navy to award contracts for at least 15 submarines. (WSJ)

WiseTech Global will cut about 2,000 jobs as the logistics-software provider leans into artificial intelligence to boost profitability. (MarketWatch)

British luxury carmaker Aston Martin is laying off 20% of its global workforce because tariffs have cut into profitability. (New York Times)

Tesla’s Megacharger network for its heavy-duty Semi trucks is starting to take shape. (Commercial Carrier Journal)

Jeremy Nixon is stepping down as CEO of Ocean Network Express on July 1 to be replaced by Till Ole Barrelet. (Journal of Commerce)

As much as one-quarter of Chinese exports to the U.S. last year evaded tariffs. (Bloomberg)

Another panel will look at how to incorporate national security into trade compliance, with speakers Kevin O’Connor, general counsel at Lockheed Martin, and Joseph Moreno, general counsel at SAP NS2.

Request a complimentary invitation here using the code COMPLIMENTARY. Attendance is limited, and all requests are subject to approval.

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.