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January 21, 2021 - Brief Issue 140

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine Fully Effective Against U.K. Coronavirus Strain, Study Finds (Health & Science)

Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine Helps U.K. Reach Nursing Home Residents (Health & Science)

Temperature Control Issues During Shipment Cause Loss of Over 16,000 Moderna Vaccines (Health & Science)

Germany Seeks Discussions with New Biden Administration Over Vaccine Distribution (Around the World)

Rising Covid Cases Globally and Slow Vaccination Pose Challenges for Postponed Tokyo Olympics (Around the World)

Doctors in Peru Stage Hunger Strike Over Government’s Lack of Preparation (Around the World)

Biden Signs Wave of Executive Orders, Including on Pandemic Response (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Surgeon General Steps Down at Biden’s Request (U.S. Government & Politics)

Restaurants Report Sales Increases in January, Due in Part to Stimulus (U.S. Economy)

Americans Are Not Draining Retirement Funds Despite Pandemic (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 24,438,938 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 406,162 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 284,629,249 tests and distributed 35,990,150 vaccine doses, with 14,270,441 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 96,943,570 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,077,096 deaths. At least 53,477,475 people have recovered from the virus.

Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine Fully Effective Against U.K. Coronavirus Strain, Study Finds

A new study conducted by Pfizer and BioNTech has found that the Covid-19 vaccine developed by the companies remains effective against the recently identified B117 coronavirus strain (STAT). The findings have not yet been peer reviewed, but they confirm experts’ expectations that vaccines currently being distributed will protect against the increasingly common variant. The B117 strain, first identified in the U.K., is believed to be approximately 50% more contagious than the original strain and is beginning to spread across the United States.

The researchers created pseudoviruses, which are safer for research purposes than fully infectious viruses, that contained genetic information from either the original reference strain or the B117 mutated strain. These pseudoviruses were then exposed to antibodies from people who had received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The study found that the antibodies were just as effective at neutralizing the mutant strain as the original. Although larger studies should be conducted to confirm the results, the study is a good sign that the Pfizer/BioNTech and other vaccines will effectively neutralize the threat of the B117 variant. Experts say it is possible that a mutant could arise that would escape vaccine protection. However, vaccines are designed to elicit a strong immune response that can protect against minor variations of a pathogen. Given the high efficacy of most Covid-19 vaccines in production, they could likely withstand a slight drop in efficacy and still provide strong protection.

Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine Helps U.K. Reach Nursing Home Residents

Covid-19 has had an outsize impact on nursing homes, killing tens of thousands of elderly long-term care residents. While many countries, including the U.S., have struggled to vaccinate nursing home residents, the U.K. has now vaccinated nearly half its nursing home population (WSJ). Part of this success is due to the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University. Unlike the mRNA vaccines developed by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, which has not yet been authorized in other Western countries, can be stored and shipped at normal refrigerated temperatures. This makes it easier for facilities without large cold storage capacities to store and administer the vaccines. For nursing homes in the U.K., the ease of transportation and storage has allowed mobile vaccination clinics to visit many nursing home residents, who often have limited ability to travel off-site. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved in India, Morocco and some Latin American countries, and the vaccine has been instrumental in reaching nursing home residents and smaller, more rural clinics.

Temperature Control Issues During Shipment Cause Loss of Over 16,000 Moderna Vaccines

On Monday, health workers in Maine and Michigan discovered that thousands of doses of vaccine had been spoiled during shipment (WaPo). Temperature trackers on the outside of the boxes indicated that, at some point during shipment, temperatures had risen above acceptable levels, rendering the vaccines unusable. Officials in Maine were forced to throw out 4,400 doses, while Michigan had to discard almost 12,000. The shipment issues have prompted investigations by the Centers for Disease control and Prevention, Moderna and a distributor to identify the issue and prevent such problems from occurring again.

The problem highlights a key logistical issue with both the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. Both vaccines must be stored at freezing temperatures and can be difficult to transport for that reason. Dr. Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that despite the unfortunate situation, “it’s also good to remember that the system has these safeguards in place so that if they happen, we know about them immediately.”

Covid-19 Spread Remains High in Texas, Death Toll Reaches 32,000

Covid-19 cases in Texas have been steadily rising since October, when new cases had plateaued at about 4,000 per day. Now, the state is seeing more than 20,000 new cases per day, on average (NYT). Border cities in particular have been hit hard. In Laredo, 35 to 40 percent of hospital beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, higher than anywhere else in the state. Residents are warned to stay home as hospitals find themselves overwhelmed. In Del Rio, 30 percent of Covid-19 tests are positive, indicating insufficient testing. 

In total, more than 32,000 people have died of Covid-19 in Texas. The state has received more than 1.7 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines and has administered 1.3 million, and approximately 4.4% of the population has received at least one dose (WaPo). However, vaccination is far from the only measure needed to contain the virus in the near future. Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins warned residents about the B117 coronavirus variant, a more contagious form of the virus that has been identified in multiple cities across Texas. Jenkins predicted that “January and February will be our toughest months here in North Texas” and asked residents to “avoid crowds, wear their mask, [and] forgo get-togethers” as the state tries to get its Covid-19 cases under control.

Scratch-and-Sniff Test Could Be the Next Covid-19 Screening Tool

Since the start of the pandemic, schools, hospitals and offices have implemented screening tests at their door to try to identify people who may be infected with coronavirus but don’t yet have obvious symptoms. One of the most common screening tools is the simple temperature check, often taken by infrared thermometer. This screening method has been largely ineffectual, however – many people who contract coronavirus never develop a fever, and fevers are often short-lived.

In contrast, between 50 and 90 percent of people with Covid-19 experience loss of smell, also known as anosmia and often lasting several days. This is where scratch-and-sniff tests could come in handy. According to a study posted last month to the preprint server Medrxiv, these tests could drive down the spread of coronavirus if used widely enough (NYT). Dr. Derek Toomre, an author on the study, has created a device called the U-Smell-It test, a 50-cent paper card with a small array of scratch-and-sniff scents. Testers are asked to sniff the scents one at a time and use a smartphone app to guess each scent. Those who correctly identify three out of five scents (randomized so that patterns cannot be memorized) pass the screening.

The test is not without its limitations, of course – loss of smell can be caused by other viruses or by allergies, and diminished sense of smell is common among older adults. Although anosmia is a defining characteristic of Covid-19, not everyone who is infected develops this symptom. Scent screening may also pose a barrier to recovered patients, who often have lingering scent loss even after recovery. And even if the test proves more effective than temperature screening, it takes longer to implement and is more complicated than a simple temperature check, possibly reducing the likelihood of widespread use. 

California Coronavirus Variant May Be Driving State’s Spread

While trying to identify cases of the B117 coronavirus variant, the more-contagious form of the virus that is beginning to spread around the United States, California scientists identified an entirely new coronavirus strain (NYT). The strain, known as CAL.20C, appears to have originated in California. The first cases likely appeared in July, but the variant circulated only at low levels until November. According to a study that has not yet been published, the CAL.20C variant accounted for more than half of all virus genome samples on January 13.

Although more research is needed to determine whether the strain is more contagious than other strains, some scientists suspect an increase in infectivity is behind the recent surge in Covid-19 cases in California. There is no evidence that the new strain is more deadly than other strains. So far, the CAL.20C has been identified in 10 other states and the District of Columbia, though it is unclear how prevalent the strain is outside of California.

Bonus Reads: “US Needs National COVID 'Smart Testing' Strategy, APHL Says,” (CIDRAP); “The Second-Generation COVID Vaccines Are Coming,” (Scientific American).

Around the World

Europe

Germany Seeks Discussions with New Biden Administration Over Vaccine Distribution

The German government is seeking discussions with the new Biden administration over requested changes to the U.S. policy that prioritizes vaccine production for the U.S. at U.S. production facilities (Politico). Politico reports, “The German government is ‘keen to enter into talks’ with the new U.S. administration to agree changes to the U.S. policy that prioritizes local coronavirus vaccine supply at U.S. production facilities, according to a document from the German health ministry. In a lengthy document published Tuesday that responded to questions from Germany’s Social Democrats, the health ministry sets out why the U.S. was able to secure additional supply of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines for specific dates, whereas the EU's increase in supply is set to come ‘in 2021.’”

Asia

Rising Covid Cases Globally and Slow Vaccination Pose Challenges for Postponed Tokyo Olympics

The Tokyo Olympics, which were originally set to be held in 2020 but were postponed to July 2021, face two new challenges, the rising global number of coronavirus cases and the slow rate of vaccination (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Organizers of the Tokyo Olympics face a long list of obstacles as they attempt to carry off the postponed Games in six months—and the alarming rise in Covid cases around the world recently is only one of them. Potentially bigger hurdles include the need to speed up Covid-19 vaccinations globally and in the U.S. and convincing a skeptical Japanese public to accept vaccines and welcome thousands of visitors from around the globe.” The Journal notes, “Although Olympic organizers have said they won’t require vaccines for fans and athletes coming to the Games, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has said he wants almost everyone in Japan vaccinated by the Olympics’ July 23 start. Japan has secured enough vaccines to inoculate all of its population, though none has yet received local regulatory approval and the country hasn’t started vaccinations.” Meanwhile, the Japanese public remains skeptical of vaccination with one poll showing a third of the public as unwilling to get vaccinated. The Olympics organizers hope to make a decision on how to manage fans by April and continue to consider holding the games without an in-person audience.

Americas

Doctors in Peru Stage Hunger Strike Over Government’s Lack of Preparation

Leaders of a doctors’ union in Peru staged a hunger strike on Tuesday to protest what they are calling the government’s “shameless lack of preparation” for a second wave of coronavirus infections (NYT). The Peruvian union, which includes 12,000 doctors in the state-run EsSalud health care network, said that public hospitals were facing the same problems they encountered early on in the pandemic, including a lack of personal protective equipment, medical supplies, and support staff. Teodoro Quiñones, the secretary general of the union, said that ventilators were in short supply and EsSalud had dismissed staff after cases declined following the first wave and never hired them back once cases began climbing again. 

Canada Expects Vaccine Shortages Amid Manufacturing Disruptions

Pfizer told Canadian leaders on Tuesday that it would not receive additional doses of the vaccine this week due to manufacturing delays at its Belgium facility (CNN). Because of a Trump executive order, vaccines manufactured in nearby U.S. facilities are not exported to Canada. Ontario Premier Doug Ford voiced frustration with Pfizer and called on President Biden to send 1 million vaccine doses to Canada as it waits out manufacturing delays in Europe. Because U.S. supplies are also limited, the new president is unlikely to export vaccines immediately.

The manufacturing delay will likely cause a significant vaccine shortage in Canada. Major General Dany Fortin, the head of the country’s vaccine rollout program, said that he expected a 50% reduction in expected vaccine allocation over the next month due to the delay.

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Signs Wave of Executive Orders, Including on Pandemic Response

On Wednesday, after being sworn in as president, President Biden signed a wave of executive orders including multiple orders regarding the pandemic (CBS, WaPo, CNN). The orders included a mask mandate for federal workers, an order reorganizing the governmental response to the pandemic that notably reinstituted the Obama era Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense in the National Security Council, which had been scrapped under the Trump administration, and a letter notifying the World Health Organization that the U.S. does not intend to leave the organization, reversing Trump’s policy. Biden also took action to extend the moratorium on evictions and provide student loan relief (WSJ). Bonus Read: “Biden is ‘Inheriting a Disaster’ as Coronavirus Continues to Grip Nation Amid Chaotic Vaccine Rollout,” (WaPo). 

U.S. Surgeon General Steps Down at Biden’s Request

U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams confirmed via Tweet on Wednesday morning that he would resign as Surgeon General at the request of President Biden’s team (Politico). In a separate Facebook post, Adams wrote, “I hope in 2021 and beyond, we can focus more on what unites us, and rise above what divides us.” Adams was confirmed in September 2017 to fill a four year term, and his resignation will place him a few months short of his tenure, likely leaving the Biden administration without a Surgeon General for a few weeks. Politico notes that Adams, the second African American to serve in the role, played “a key role in communicating public health measures to prevent against Covid-19, especially with minority communities devastated by the virus” but also came under criticism for not sufficiently challenging Trump’s downplaying of the pandemic.

Bonus Read: “Biden’s Covid Fight Meets a Big Test: Red-State Politics,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Restaurants Report Sales Increases in January, Due in Part to Stimulus 

U.S. restaurants have reported increases in their sales so far in January 2021, pointing to the impact of economic stimulus funds (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Restaurants chains say they are getting a sales bump from the latest round of stimulus money going to households, but spending patterns from the first batch of checks earlier in the pandemic suggest the lift can fade quickly.” The Journal writes, “Church’s Chicken, Checkers Drive-In Restaurants Inc., Noodles & Co. and TGI Fridays are among the companies crediting higher sales to the stimulus, according to executives. Some McDonald’s Corp. restaurant owners also attributed strong January sales to the recent checks, as did fine-dining chain Fogo de Chão.”

U.S. Society

Americans Are Not Draining Retirement Funds Despite Pandemic

Even as many feared that Americans would end up draining their retirement savings in order to survive the economic impact of the pandemic, the Wall Street Journal reports that they are not doing so and that withdrawals remain limited (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Workers affected by the pandemic continued to withdraw money from their retirement accounts in the final months of 2020. But, as happened earlier in the year, the increase in the number of people taking withdrawals was modest. Congress in late March let people pull as much as $100,000 from individual retirement accounts or 401(k)-type plans by Dec. 31 without the 10% early-withdrawal penalty that generally applies under age 59½. Not many took that option.” According to the Journal, “In 2020, Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest 401(k) provider, said 1.6 million people, or 6.3% of eligible participants in plans it administers, took some money out. Fidelity and many other 401(k) record-keepers reported that although the number of people taking Covid-19-related withdrawals continued to grow in the final three months of 2020, the rate of increase was modest and largely in line with what occurred in earlier months, even as the option to take a penalty-free withdrawal ended on Dec. 31.” Meanwhile Vanguard Group reported that 5.7% took the penalty free withdrawal option, T. Rowe Price Group reported that 8% took the option, and Alight Solutions LLC said 6% did. Rob Austin, director of research at Alight told the Journal, “Given how many people have been impacted by Covid, 6% can be viewed as good news.” However, the Journal notes that one major reason that withdrawals have been lower than expected is that the economic impact of the pandemic has disproportionately hit those with few if any savings to begin with.

Bonus Read: “Outdoor Dining Menus Heat Up With Comfort Foods,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Whet Moser writes on how the pandemic provides a tragic beginning to Biden’s presidency (Atlantic).

Ramesh Ponnuru writes that Trump could have won if among other things he had shown that he cared about Covid’s victims and made a real effort on stimulus (Bloomberg).

Jeet Heer writes that Trump almost won, and Biden should learn from the economic relief steps he took and their political role as well as those he didn’t (Nation).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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