Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 24, June/2021, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week's AiR providing you with an update on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

Special greetings are extended in this issue to readers in Iceland and in the Seychelles which celebrate Independence Day and National Day in this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief 

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Anti-foreign sanctions law adopted by top legislature 

(dx) The Standing Committee of China's National People’s Congress (NPCSC), the top decision-making body of the country’s legislature, adopted an anti-foreign sanctions law to “counter, fight and oppose unilateral sanctions on China imposed by foreign countries, safeguard its national sovereignty, security and development interests as well as to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens and organizations.” 

The law, which codifies a number of retaliatory actions against Western sanctions already in place, targets those who interfere in China’s internal affairs and “smear, contain and suppress China.” Specified measures include: refusing visa issuance, banning entry into China, invalidating visas and deportation; sealing up, seizing and freezing property in China; prohibiting from conducting related transactions with domestic organizations or individuals. [Xinhua] [South China Morning Post]

The law, immediately effective, comes at the heels of China’s counter-sanctions in retaliation to sanctions against it from the US, the European Union, the UK and Canada over Beijing’s tightened control over Hong Kong and treatment of ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang. [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]

An unofficial translation of the law is available at [China Law Translate].

China: Law banning defamation of military personnel passed

(dx) Chinese lawmakers passed a law on the protection of status, rights and interests of military personnel banning defamation of members of the armed forces and the desecration of plaques in honour of military personnel. [Xinhua]

Indicating the sensitivity of the issue, a popular Chinese internet blogger with more than two and a half million followers was sentenced in May to eight months in prison for suggesting that the number of Chinese casualties during last year’s border clash with India was higher than the government's count. [DW]

China: Films in breach of national security law to be banned in Hong Kong

(dx) New censorship guidelines were introduced in Hong Kong to make the city’s filmmakers toe a new line under the Hong Kong national security law. Under the amended Film Censorship Ordinance, censors are now authorized to ban movies that are deemed “endorsing, supporting, promoting, glorifying or inciting” acts which are stipulated in the security law as offenses including subversion, secession, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces.

The legislative move has deepened concerns among filmmakers over growing political censorship and erosion of media freedom and freedom of expression in Hong Kong. 

In a related development, the screening of “Far From Home”, which portrays political divisions following the 2019 anti-government protests, was withdrawn from 15th Fresh Wave International Short Film Festival after if failed to obtain approval from censors. [South China Morning Post] [Associated Press] [China Digital Rights] [VoA]]

Japan: Parties boost female candidates' number ahead of polls

(dx) Japanese political parties are competing to include more female candidates ahead of the House of Representatives election this fall. Many parties have set numerical goals for female candidates, with the Democratic Party for the People, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Japanese Communist Party - all of them are opposition parties - aiming for having female lawmakers account for 35%, 30% and 50% respectively in their organizations. Currently, women comprise just 9.9% of lawmakers in the House of Representatives and 22.9% in the House of Councillors. [Mainichi]

In a separate development, the Diet passed an amendment to the “Act on Promotion of Gender Equality in the Political Field” urging political parties, the national and local governments to take measures to prevent sexual harassment and "matahara" (harassment over pregnancy and childbirth), which are considered major barriers that prevent the number of females in the political field from increasing. 

The Act was passed in 2018 and calls on the political parties to equalize female and male candidates. [Asahi Shimbun, in Japanese] [Japanese Law Translation] [Asahi Shimbun]

Japan: LGBTQ activists push for equality act before Olympics

(dx) Japanese sexual minority groups and their supporters submitted requests to the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a last-ditch effort to get the equality act passed before the Tokyo Olympics. Earlier, the submission of a cross-party bill, which aims at protecting LGBT groups from discrimination and promoting awareness among the public of LGBT, was suspended due to strong resistances from LDP's conservatives. Currently, LGBTQ activists are pushing for the passage of the equality act since international attention falls on Tokyo as it hosts the Olympics, but the prospect of the passage of legislation is uncertain. [Asahi Shimbun] [see AiR No. 22 June/2021, 1]

Japan: Suga’s approval rating sinks to record low

(dx) The approval rating for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's Cabinet has dropped to a record-low 37% while the disapproval rate hit 50%, up from 46% in May. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s approval rating fell to 33%, the lowest since the inauguration of the Suga Cabinet. The plunge in public confidence for Suga’s administration is widely attributed to the relatively slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout, recent LDP gift and money scandals and general disapproval over the decision to hold the Tokyo Olympic Games. [Yomiuri, in Japanese] [Gzero Media]

Mongolia: Ruling party candidate wins presidential election by great margin 

(nm) Former Prime Minister and current chairman of the ruling Mongolian People Party (MPP) Ukhnaa Khurelsukh won Mongolia’s presidential election by a great margin, replacing outgoing President Battulga Khaltmaa. The candidate of the National Labor Party came in second, while Erdene Sodnomzundui, candidate of the Democratic Party (DP) of incumbent President Battulga Khatmaa, only received 6 percent of the vote.

The MPP is now controlling all three major branches of government as the party also holds a supermajority in parliament and controls the office of the prime minister, a concentration of power that is seen by some observers as a risk to Mongolia’s democracy. Making use of its supermajority, the MPP passed constitutional amendments limiting presidents to a single six-year term in 2019, thereby practically preventing incumbent Battulga from seeking re-election. 

Top campaign issues included reviving the economy and tackling unemployment and corruption. Mongolia had closed its border relatively early in the pandemic and initially managed to contain any major Covid-19 outbreaks. However, in 2020, the nation’s resource-based and largely China-dependent economy also experienced its worst contraction (5.3%) since the early 1990s. [The Diplomat] [The Washington Post] [Nikkei Asia] 

If you wish to learn more about the institutional arrangements of Mongolia’s political system and about why these very arrangements might be a factor in Mongolia’s recent political trouble, please see this blog entry on [Verfassungsblog].

North Korea: Party contributions increased by 30-55% for Russia-based workers 

(nds) According to South Korean online newspaper Daily NK, North Korea has significantly increased the “party contributions” that Korean workers in Russia has to pay to the government. While party contributions have been hiked little by little every year, it has never rich this percentage before. Furthermore, North Korean authorities are reportedly planning to send another batch of workers to China, Russia, Egypt, Syria, and other countries in the Middle East. 

North Korea has begun to aggressively secure foreign currency through its overseas workers. It shows the will of the North to develop its economy by all possible means. It is to compensate for the losses due to economic sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic. [Daily NK]

South Korea: Main opposition party elects youngest-ever leader

(nm) South Korea’s major opposition People Power Party (PPP) elected 36-year-old start-up founder Lee Jun-seok who has never served as lawmaker as its new leader. With the election, Lee became the youngest leader of any major political party in the nation’s democratic history, indicating the much-debated generational shift in South Korean politics and reflecting growing calls for change. Following the election, polls indicated a rise in public support for the conservative party. 

In his acceptance speech, Lee said the PPP’s task now was to win the presidential elections set for March of next year and to end the divisive type of politics that has dominated South Korean political culture for decades. Lee himself is too young to seek presidency as the constitution requires presidential candidates to be at least 40 years old. 

Soaring housing prices and deepened inequality have contributed to a decline in President Moon Jae-in and his ruling Democratic Party’s popularity in recent local elections, exposing young voters as a crucial voter block. [Nikkei Asia] [Bloomberg] [Korea Herald] [Korea Times]

South Korea: Supreme Court remands bribery case of former vice justice minister 

(nm) South Korea’s Supreme Court has remanded the bribery case of former Vice Justice Minister Kim Hak-ui to a lower court for retrial last week as it called into question the reliability of the testimony used against Kim. According to the court, it could not “rule out the possibility” that one witness altered his testimony due to appeasement or pressure on side of the prosecution. The relevant witness had changed his initial position after being questioned by the prosecution. 

Kim faces several charges in different cases. In 2019, he had been indicted on charges of receiving bribes and sexual favours, was however cleared of all charges by a district court and later found partially guilty of bribery by an appellate court. He is further involved in a controversial case in which the Ministry of Justice allegedly enforced an illegal exit ban to stop him from leaving South Korea in 2019. [Korea Herald]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Twitter blocks more accounts over support for farmers’ protests, following government order

(ad) In compliance with the Indian government’s new IT rules, US micro-blogging giant Twitter has blocked access to four accounts which had been used to voice support for Indian farmers staging protests on New Delhi's borders for over six months.

One such user is the Indo-Canadian pop singer JazzyB who had apparently tweeted posts that provoked communal sentiments within the Sikh community. Others targeted include users who have voiced criticisms of the current regime in India including cartoonists and newspaper founders. While they all received Twitter's notice, they did not receive any information on which law enforcement agency was taking action and specific reasons as to why their accounts were blocked. [The Straits Times]

Social media giants Twitter and Facebook Inc are engaged in a worsening conflict with Prime Minister Modi's administration. Tensions escalated last month when police officers visited Twitter's New Delhi premises over its labelling of a tweet by a governing party spokesman as “manipulated media” [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1] - a move described as "intimidation tactics" by the American company.

While Twitter previously agreed to make key appointments in line with the new IT regulations [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2], critics say the guidelines leave a lot of room for confusion and wrongful accusation. Specifically, they claim that system for reporting allows any law enforcement member to report, which could lead to blatant targeting and an immense amount of power at the hands of these agencies. [Indian Express]

India: Tribal communities continue to protest against security camp in their region

(ad) Tribal residents from over 30 villages joined in on a protest against the security camp in Chhattisgarh since May 2021. Their initial demands were to remove the security camp and return the used land to its rightful owners, who were members of the tribal community. However, the protests became violent, leading to police retaliation. Three members of the protest died in the clash. The police have claimed that the three men killed by security personnel were Maoists who were the first to open fire.

In light of the incident, a delegation of tribal residents will meet Chhattisgarh’s Chief Minister. The demands of the protests have increased to include a full investigation into the violence against tribal members, especially the three men who died during the protests. Moreover, the demands also include a promise to maintain the memorial built for the deceased. [The Indian Express]

Pakistan: Government unveils budget for next fiscal year

(lm) Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin on June 11 presented a $54 billion federal budget for the next fiscal year 2021-2022, an increase of $4.4 billion over the last budget. The new budget is based on an ambitious growth target of 4.5 percent and tripling spending on public sector development, with an election just two years away. [Dawn 1] [Gulf Today]

16 percent of the budget, or about $8.7 billion, have been earmarked for defense spending, an increase of $28 million over the previous fiscal year. All services have received an equal raise of about 6.2. percent.

Among the three formally uniformed services, the Army - as always - has the biggest share of the pie with almost 48 percent ($4.2 billion), while the Air Force will be given around 21 percent ($1.8 billion). The Navy, in turn, will get 10.85 percent ($950 million), and inter-services organizations are being allocated 20.32 percent ($1.8 billion). [Dawn 2]

The proposed defense allocation for the next fiscal year assumes added significance, coming as it does against the larger backdrop of a thaw in relations with Islamabad’s archrival India, and the withdrawal of US forces from neighboring Afghanistan, which has given rise to concerns that violence among the warring groups could intensify in the absence of a political settlement and Pakistan could face the spillover of instability.

Pakistan: Government introduces bill criminalizing forced disappearances

The government has introduced a bill to parliament’s lower house which criminalizes enforced disappearances with 10-year imprisonment, after the proposed law had languished at the draft stage for more than two years.

Introduced by Minister for Human Rights Shireen Mazari, the Criminal Laws (Amendment) Act, 2021 states that a new section should be inserted into the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC) and the Code of Criminal Procedure. [The Express Tribune]

Earlier this year, the Islamabad High Court, after hearing a petition on a disappearance case from 2015, ruled that Prime Minister Khan and his cabinet were responsible for the state’s failure to protect its citizens “because the buck stops at the top.”

In March, then, the prime minister vowed that the draft law to criminalize enforced disappearances would be “fast-tracked”, while he met with families of people who had been forcibly disappeared.

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Indonesia's former graft investigator warns of death stroke for anti-corruption agency

(sa) Novel Baswedan, a former senior investigator at Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), outed during a civic knowledge test in May, recently mentioned in an interview to Reuters that his firing could be the end to the well-known agency. [Reuters]

Novel is one out of 75 other investigators sacked who also failed the civil service examination. He and the other officials at the time were investigating into the corruption of social aid programs, more so Covid-19 aid. [see AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]

In recent years, Indonesia's corruption has been worsening with its Corruption Perception Index dropping by three points, marking a sharp change from its upwards improvement since 1995.  [Transparency International] Novel remarked that in the past cases could run up to the tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Lately, it has been in to tens or hundreds of millions of dollars (Reuters).

Indonesia: Terrorist attack on airport in Papua

(sa) On June 3, Papuan terrorists descended upon Aminggaru Airport in Ilaga, Puncak District, Papua Province, in the process burning several utilities such as the control tower, a civil helicopter, an excavator, and houses of the airport's employees. Security personnel engaged in a gunfight with the terrorists. Three dead civilians and three injured civilians were counted amongst the casualties [Antara 1]. 

Such attacks are a trend in the hit-and-run tactic employed by the Papuan separatists as they seek to leverage an element of surprise in striking state facilities, civilians, and inciting terror. Recent targets have included school teachers, street food vendors, and students, on top of security personnel [see AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4].

The Indonesian State in response has been deploying greater number of troops to counter rising insurgencies with some success. Last month, Densus 88, a special operations counter-terrorist group nabbed ten terrorists suspected to carry out Church bombings [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1].

The push to secure Papua comes as Indonesia’s House of Representatives renews Papua’s autonomous status [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]. Several politicians have described its security status as a challenge towards development, with People’s Consultative Assembly Speaker Bambang Soesatyo commenting that it is not "easy to develop Papua if the armed Papuan terrorists' acts of terror against innocent civilians there get intensified and escalated." [Antara 2]  

Indonesia: Papua separatist leader arrested for fake news

(sa) Manuel Metemko, Chairman of the West Papua National Committee (KNPB), was arrested last week by the Nemangkawi Task Force, a joint military and police team, in Merauke District in Papua on charges of incitement through misinformation and spreading hatred on social media. [Union of Catholic Asia News]

KNPB is a group of Papuan non-governmental organizations (NGOs) campaigning for a self-determination referendum for the Papuan people of West Papua.

Indonesia: Majority Muslim group blocks minority Muslim mosque-construction in East Java

(sa) On 7 June, several hundreds of Muslims identifying by the Nahdlatul Ulama Muslim group, the largest Muslim organization in Indonesia, pressurized the Sraten Village local government in East Java to halt the construction of a Muhammadiyah, the second largest Muslim organization, mosque. Nahdlatul Ulama has an estimated 80 million followers while Muhammadiyah has around 30 million. The conflict stems out of the group’s religious and political differences. [Human Rights Watch 1]

Human Rights Watch attributes such troubling relations to a 2006 regulation issued by the 2006 Indonesian Government of then President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The regulation is dedicated to “Religious Harmony, Empowering Religious Harmony Forums, and Constructing Houses of Worship”, and paved the way for “majority religious group in an area to effectively veto minority religious groups from constructing houses of worship.” Militant Islamist groups, in aiming to close Christian churches in Muslim-majority provinces, often cited the regulation. 

President Jokowi Widodo had promised in 2014 to repeal the regulation, acknowledging that it was being used to close religious minorities’ worship places. However, he failed to do so, and in 2019 picked Ma’ruf Amin, a Muslim cleric and the drafter the regulation, to be his Vice President. [Human Rights Watch 2]

Malaysia: Goldman Sachs to return outstanding US$1.26 billion payment in 1MDB scandal

(tcy) As its subsidiary Goldman Sachs Malaysia (GS Malaysia) was due to be sentenced by a US District Court last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc has been given 10 days to return the Malaysian government the remaining US$1.26 billion of a US$2.5 billion penalty. GS Malaysia had earlier pleaded guilty to violating anti-bribery provisions of the US the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal. [Malay Mail 1]

Investigators in the US and Malaysia has estimated that at least US$4.5 billion was stolen from the 1MDB between 2009 and 2014, in a wide-ranging scandal that has implicated high-level officials, banks and financial institutions around the world. [see No. 19, May/2021, 2]

1MDB, a now-insolvent state-owned strategic development company founded in 2009 to promote the country’s economic development, and its three subsidiaries have also filed a suit against the stepson of former Prime Minister Najib Razak, Riza Shahriz Abdul Aziz, suspected of misappropriating US$250 million to finance movie productions and purchase real estate. [Malay Mail 2]

In July last year, Najib was found guilty of money laundering, abuse of power and criminal breach of trust connected to the 1MDB scandal. [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4]

Malaysia: Penang South Islands project to proceed despite objections

(tcy) The Penang state government announced that it will proceed with the Penang South Islands (PSI) project, citing its socio-economic benefits such as job creation and economic growth through domestic and international investments as well as promising to implement measures to mitigate the project’s on the affected people and the environment including a socioeconomic plan for fishermen and green initiatives for the PSI development. [Bernama]

The Penang South Islands project, also known as the three-island reclamation project, is a proposed land reclamation project to the south of Penang Island, and is meant to host a mix of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings and activities. The project has caused significant controversy, with doubts surrounding its environmental soundness and socio-economic impact. Aside from an appeal by the fishermen whose livelihoods will be disrupted, there have also been many other calls, including those by ministers, for the government to cancel the project. [see AIR No. 23, June/2021, 2]

Malaysia: King meets political leaders to discuss COVID-19 pandemic and Emergency

(tcy) Amid public discontent over the government’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis and calls for Parliament to reconvene [see AIR No. 23, June/2021, 2], Malaysia’s king has completed a series of meetings from June 9-11 with political party leaders across the political divide to discuss the COVID-19 and Emergency situation. These include opposition leader and president of the People’s Justice Party (Parti Keadilan Rakyat, PKR) Anwar Ibrahim, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Democratic Action Party secretary general Lim Guan Eng, and UMNO chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, amongst others. 

The King met with Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin on June 9, which the palace later clarified had been for their regular pre-Cabinet briefing. [The Straits Times]

During their audiences with the King, both UMNO and PKR chiefs urged the King to end the ongoing state of emergency and for Parliament to reconvene, amid speculations that the Emergency, which is due to end on August 1, may be extended. [Malay Mail 1] [The Straits Times 2] Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad also suggested the formation of a National Operations Council (Mageran) to steer the country towards overcoming the health, economic, and social issues it currently faces. A National Operations Council is a special body of politicians and experts trained to handle crises, and such a body was last formed during the 1969 Emergency due to racial riots. [Malay Mail 2] However, the prime minister’s aide has spoken out against this suggestion, saying that the formation of a National Operations Council would impede the government’s plans and efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis. [Bernama 1] 

Some have commented that the King’s unilateral decision to summon the political leaders without seeking the advice of the prime minister or Cabinet is a signal that Muhyiddin’s term in power is coming to an end. [Malay Mail3]

In a latest development, the King received on Monday four top leaders from the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), ruling coalition in the Borneo and supporter of Perikatan Nasional, the state government coalition. A statement released after the audience reassured that the “presence of a strong and stable government to ensure COVID-19 programme and (economic) implementation are well-grounded.” [Channel News Asia]

A Special Meeting of Malay Rulers will be held this week to discuss efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. [Bernama 2] 

Malaysia: Country to focus on fighting COVID-19 before holding general elections

(tcy) UMNO elections director Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman has urged parties not to pressure the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government to hold the 15th general elections anytime soon as the country struggles to combat the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the country. This comes after the Sarawak state election and three by-elections were postponed under provisions of the Emergency (Extended Powers) Ordinance 2021. [Bernama 1] 

Last November, the Sabah state elections held in September caused a spike in COVID-19 cases throughout Malaysia, after mass movements of thousands of political campaigners and free-mingling between politicians and voters throughout the two-week campaign. [The Straits Times] 

Malaysia: No new amnesty program for undocumented migrants

(tcy) Defying criticism of the government’s recent harsh clampdown on migrants under the COVID-19 lockdown [see AIR No. 23, June/2021, 2], Home Minister Hamzah Zainudin signaled to continue a hardline policy clarifying that Malaysia will not have another amnesty program for undocumented migrants as the foreign worker recalibration from November 2020 was ongoing.  

In November 2020, the government launched the Illegal Immigration Recalibration Plan under which illegal immigrants were allowed to return to their country of origin voluntarily, and eligible employers could hire illegal immigrants as foreign workers. The scheme will terminate on June 30.

Hamzah added the government has introduced a repatriation program for those willing to return to their home countries voluntarily and that immigration enforcement to detect undocumented migrants would continue. [Malay Mail] 

Under this program, Malaysia has recently announced that it will be deporting 7200 undocumented workers to Indonesia. [Reuters 1] 

Besides criticism over cracking down on migrant workers, Malaysia has also received criticism for its treatment of Rohingya refugees. Amnesty International Malaysia blamed the Malaysian government after the Immigration Department shared a post on Facebook advocating anti-Rohingya sentiments and stating that Rohingya refugees are ‘unwelcomed’ in the country. [Malay Mail 1] Government officials recently mentioned that it was unable to deport the Rohingya refugees currently detained here as no other country including Myanmar was willing to accept them. [Malay Mail 2]

Meanwhile, Malaysia’s Industrial Court also ruled in favor of migrant workers in a labor dispute against American tire manufacturer Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT.O) following allegations of unpaid wages and employee mistreatment at the firm’s Malaysian factory. [Reuters 2]

Myanmar: Junta trial of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi hears first testimony

(lm) The trial of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi heard its first testimony in a junta court on June 14, more than four months since the military’s putsch removed her government in February. 

On the first day of the evidence hearings, Suu Kyi’s defense team cross-examined witnesses over charges she improperly imported walkie-talkies and flouted coronavirus restrictions during last November’s elections that her National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. Government prosecutors will have until June 28 to finish their presentation in the court in the country’s capital, Naypyitaw, after which Suu Kyi’s defense team will have until July 26 to present its case [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]. [South China Morning Post]

Days before evidence hearings commenced, the junta also formally charged Suu Kyi and other officials with corruption, one of the most serious of the now seven cases against the civilian leader since her detention in February. Senior government officials face a maximum of 15 years in prison if convicted on corruption charges. [The Straits Times]

According to the notification, the Anti-Corruption Commission alleges it found Suu Kyi had illegally accepted $600,000 as well as gold from the former Yangon region chief minister. The charges also accuse her of abuse of power in leasing a Yangon property as headquarters of a non-profit charity she founded in 2012, resulting in the state losing out on $3.15 million in revenue. [Bloomberg]

A separate case started on June 15, where she is charged with sedition alongside ousted president Win Myint and another senior member of the NLD. Earlier this month, the junta moved Suu Kyi and Win Myint from their residences in the capital to an unknown location [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2].

Suu Kyi also faces criminal charges under the Burma Official Secrets Act, which carries up to 14 years in prison [see AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1]. If convicted of all charges, Suu Kyi faces more than a decade in jail.

Myanmar: Pro-Rohingya social media campaign gathers mass support

(lm) Hundreds of thousands of Myanmar’s anti-military government protesters on June 13 flooded social media with pictures of themselves wearing black in a show of solidarity with the Rohingya, a minority group that is among the most persecuted in the country. [Al Jazeera]

The move assumes added significance, coming as it did a day after Myanmar’s military junta announced that it does not recognize the identity of the Rohingya people or their right to return home, and thus clearly indicates social and political reconciliation between Rohingya and other Myanmar people. [The Straits Times]

Though the situation remains formidable both for Rohingya in Myanmar and for those who seek to return from Bangladesh, that is, certain social and political fault lines that have been present throughout Myanmar’s recent history seem to be shifting.

The emerging reconciliation was also visible offline, when Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) – a shadow government formed by civilian lawmakers deposed by the military – earlier this month released a progressive policy position statement lauded by many observers. The NUG’s statement declared its intent to do away with Myanmar’s problematic and outdated 1982 citizenship law, and to ensure birthright citizenship to all people born in Myanmar as well as to the children of Myanmar citizens.

This would effectively mean the acknowledgement of existing citizenship rights for the Rohingya.

The June 3 statement also clarified the NUG’s position regarding the current International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation on crimes committed by the Tatmadaw against the Rohingya. Previously, the NUG had only mentioned that it would consider accepting the ICC’s jurisdiction to investigate the Tatmadaw’s crimes since the coup, which would not cover earlier periods of violence against the Rohingya. According to the June 3 statement, however, the NUG intends to “initiate processes to grant the ICC jurisdiction over crimes committed in Myanmar against the Rohingyas and other communities” – a commitment that offers hope for full accountability.

Myanmar: Junta accuses ethnic armies over bombings

(lm) Myanmar’s junta on June 12 accused some of the country’s two-dozen ethnic armed groups of providing training to its opponents to carry out a wave of bombings that it said had targeted public buildings, including schools. [The Straits Times]

In the four months since the February 1 military takeover, cities across the country have been rocked by more than 300 bomb blasts, and the ruling junta and its opponents are trading blame over the explosions and the rising death toll. Just throughout May, more than 100 schools and other education facilities were attacked, according to new data from a child rights organization. [Al Jazeera]

Experts believe that both sides of the conflict appear responsible for the attacks, but resistance fighters claim that they only target the military and would not harm civilians. The junta, in turn, claims the bombings are all carried out by protesters to incite fear and instability.

In related news, Myanmar’s junta-controlled media o June 14 accused the Karen National Defence Organisation (KNDO) of killing 25 construction workers in the east of the country after abducting a group of 47 people last month. [Reuters]

Fighting has intensified in eastern Myanmar since the coup and clashes have driven thousands of people from their homes. The KNDO, which has been fighting for greater autonomy for the Karen people since 1947, is among the ethnic armed groups that have strongly opposed the military takeover.

Against this backdrop, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, said on June 11 Myanmar has plunged from a “fragile democracy to a human rights catastrophe” – pointing with particular concern at the escalating violence in Kayah State, Chin State and Kachin State. 

State-run television later condemned Bachelet’s comments, saying that the international body “should not be biased”. [UN News]

Ethnic armed group in Myanmar to abide ceasefire agreement

(lm) The chief of staff of the armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU) said on June 9 that he would uphold the principles of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) the organization had signed in 2015 with the ousted National League for Democracy (NDL) government, along with several other insurgent groups [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. [The Irrawaddy]

The statement of the leader of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) assumes added significance, coming as it does a month after the KNU’s chairman, General Saw Mutu Sae Poe, urged all stakeholders to follow the negotiation channels offered by the military junta to solve the country’s “arising political problems”. [AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]

The general’s statement followed on multiple airstrikes carried out by the military since late March in retaliation for attacks on military outposts by the KNLA, displacing more than 30,000 people in the area. [AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5]. It therefore prompted mixed reactions, including strong criticism from Karen communities.

Philippines: Duterte rejects peace talks with rebels

(lp) After the landmine attack reportedly committed by the New People’s Army (NPA), President Rodrigo Duterte said he would not pursue peace talks with ‘communist’ rebels. Later, the Philippine National Police (PNP) lamented that the NPA did not turn over suspects behind the attack, even though it did recognize its participation. However, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) incorrectly accused three persons slain during the alleged encounter as NPA members, even though they are reportedly just farmers. [The Manila Times] [Inquirer] [Manila Bulletin]

Singapore: President, ministers condemn recent slew of racist incidents

(tcy) Present Halimah Yacob, Education Minister Chan Chun Sing, and Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugan have condemned the recent spate of racist incidents in Singapore, which go against the values of racial tolerance and harmony in Singapore. [The Straits Times]

In the past week, a video capturing a polytechnic lecturer confronting a mixed-race couple and making racist remarks has gone viral on social media, and subsequently a former student also spoke out about past experiences with the lecturer who allegedly made denigrating remarks about Islam in class. [Mothership.sg 1] [Mothership.sg 2]

Police are also investigating a woman for disrupting her neighbors’ Hindu prayers by clanging a gong repeatedly, after a video clip of the incident was posted on Facebook. [Mothership.sg 3]

Singapore has been seeing an uptick in incidents reflecting racial intolerance and open displays of racist behaviour [see AIR No. 20, May/2021, 3]. The rise in racist and xenophobic sentiments have sparked criticism and debate among Singaporeans about whether racial harmony in Singapore’s multiracial society is under threat.

Singapore: Individual detained under Internal Security Act for spying for China

(tcy) A Singaporean academic who had previously been jailed in the United States on charges of spying for China has been detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA) since January, according to the island nation’s intelligence agency, the Internal Security Department (ISD). [South China Morning Post] [The Straits Times]

The ISD stated that the man was recruited by Chinese agents during a trip to Beijing in 2015 and was tasked to source information and provide political reports on issues of interest to his foreign handlers, including information relating to the US and Singapore, in exchange for monetary gains.

He was arrested in Singapore in December of last year, following his deportation from the US, where he had served a 14-month prison term.

The ISA authorizes the home affairs minister to detain individuals without trial for two-year terms that can be renewed at the minister’s discretion. In recent years, the colonial-era law has been used against suspected militants.

Singapore: President passes major infrastructure law allowing government borrowing

(tcy) President Halimah Yacob has approved the Bill for the Significant Infrastructure Government Loan Act (Singa), which will enable the Government to borrow up to $90 billion for major long-term infrastructure that lasts for at least 50 years. The President also said that the law would allow the government to distribute fiscal responsibility more equitably across the generations who will benefit from the projects. [The Straits Times]

Singapore: Individual planning to join ISIS detained

(tcy) A Singaporean housewife and former religious teacher was detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA) for planning to travel to Syria to take up armed violence with the terrorist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). She had been radicalized by her husband, who was arrested for similar offences earlier this year, and had been in communication with overseas ISIS supporters online. [The Straits Times]

Thailand: Anti-corruption agency prepares corruption charges against PM’s brother, lawmakers

(pr) The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has found grounds to the allegation that General Preecha Chan-o-cha, a Senator and the younger brother of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, falsely declared his assets.

He allegedly did not include a house and his wife’s bank account in the asset declaration list when he served as a member of the now-defunct National Legislative Assembly, the country’s legislative body during the National Council for Peace and Order military junta between 2014 and 2019.

The NACC has summoned General Preecha to acknowledge the charges and is expecting the Senator to show by the end of the month. Thereafter, the accused will be given 15 days to come up with a rebuttal or to seek an extension. After that, NACC commissioners will decide whether to forward the case to prosecutors or not. [Bangkok Post 1]

The NACC also found grounds to allegations against three sitting and one former lawmaker who allegedly let fellow lawmakers use their voting cards in Parliament during a House deliberation last year. [Bangkok Post]

The irregularity was submitted to the Constitutional Court. It found that the votes for the second and third readings of the bill must be recast due to the proxy voting, but the bill’s overall legality was upheld. The Constitutional Court did not rule on the alleged violations of individual lawmakers [see, AiR, No. 6, February/2020, 2].

If found guilty, the six individuals involved could face up to 20 years in prison. Moreover, if the case is forwarded to the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions, the Court may order the sitting lawmakers to be suspended from parliamentary duty and if convicted, they will lose their status.

Thailand: Authorities to intensify efforts combatting ‘fake news’, new law under study

(pr) Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon has instructed the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society (MDES) and relevant security agencies to resolutely clamp down on the dissemination of false information on social media platforms, which is believed to compound the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha also instructed the Council of State, the government's legal advisory body, to prepare a legal comparison of laws and regulations – including those in foreign countries – addressing the spread of false information online. The findings will be presented to the Cabinet to inform further action, as the 2007 Computer Crime Act, the key legislation hitherto used by Thai authorities to limit the dissemination of false information, is considered insufficient. [Bangkok Post]

In related developments, the MDES is also working on a draft bill enabling authorities to collect log flies from internet providers and overseeing the registration of social media platforms to limit the dissemination of false information. The draft proposal is expected to be available later this month [see AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4, AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1].

Thailand: Commission backs Singchai Thaninson as next Attorney-General

(pr) The Public Prosecutor Commission has unanimously nominated current Deputy Attorney-General Singchai Thaninson to serve as the country’s 16th Attorney-General (AG), replacing Wongsakul Kittipromwong. [Bangkok Post]

Wongsakul will complete his term in September this year, upon turning 65 years during the current fiscal year. His successor, Singchai will commence his term in October and is expected to serve until September 2022. His nomination will be fist forwarded to the Senate, and later to the King for royal approval. 

Singchai received his Bachelor of Laws and Master of Political Science degrees from Thammasat University and is a barrister-at-law of the Thai Bar Association. He held many important positions in the Office of the Attorney General, such as Director-General of the Department of Attorney-General's Litigation Affairs and Director-General of the Department of Criminal Litigation. He is also currently a Deputy Secretary-General, and a Committee Member of the Thai Bar Association under the Royal Patronage. [Thai PBS, in Thai]

Thailand: Government offers some details on secret budget allocations

(pr) The government has provided some details regarding classified funds allocated under the proposed $99.7 billion fiscal budget bill for 2022, to disprove opposition criticism that it should be more transparent about its defense spending.

According to the Prime Minister Operations Centre (PMOC), classified funds make up 0.03 percent, or $29.8 million, of the total budget. The PMOC defines a secret budget or allocation as a government budget earmarked for funding confidential operations of government organizations in areas of defense, narcotics suppression, and intelligence. [Bangkok Post]

A significant amount of the budget allocation is said to be allocated for security operations in the deep south of Thailand, where conflict has been ongoing for 16 years.

Regarding the oversight of spending this budget, the PMOC said there are regulations enacted for scrutinization, which also specify conditions for use. However, observers say that scrutiny of the spending is difficult as these classified funds can be spent secretly due to their nature and the Cabinet can approve more without being subject to scrutiny.

The PMOC’s announcement came after the opposition Pheu Thai Party last week declared that its members in the budget-examination committee would investigate these classified funds allocated to ministries and agencies [see AiR No. No. 23, June/2021, 2]. According to a Party lawmaker, another $16 million have been put aside and earmarked as secret spending for the Defence Ministry, in addition to $17.9 million for the Prime Minister’s Office.

Thailand: House of Representatives and Senate approve executive loan decree, debt projection nears ceiling

(pr) Thailand’s upper house of parliament on June 14 voted 205 to zero, with two abstentions, to approve an executive decree which allows the government to borrow an $15.9 billion, at a time when Ministry of Finance has nearly exhausted a $32 billion stimulus package authorized by the Senate in June of last year. [Bangkok Post 1]

The Senate’s approval came after parliament’s lower house June 11 voted 270 to 196 in favor of the bill, after three days of debating.

On the first day of the debate, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said that the country was in critical need of the loan because nobody knew how long it would take to bring the coronavirus crisis under control. Opposition parties, in turn, said they were not convinced the borrowing would enable the government to contain the pandemic while also casting doubt on how transparent the spending would be. [Bangkok Post 2] [Bangkok Post 3]

The decree was published in the Government Gazette earlier this month; a former finance minister days later petitioned the Supreme Administrative Court asking it to revoke cabinet’s approval of the decree. [AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4].

About $963 million of the amount is earmarked for the procurement of medical supplies, vaccines and research, $9.63 billion for funding relief schemes, and $5.45 billion for social and economic recovery. Borrowing must be completed by September 2022. 

In light of the expected additional borrowing, the Public Debt Management Office estimates Thailand’s public debt-to-GDP ratio to have reached 58.6 percent by the end of the fiscal year, which is near the fiscal sustainability framework ceiling of 60 percent.

What is more, the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers’ Association this week issued a joint statement with a GDP expansion estimate of between 0.5 percent and 2 percent. The prediction comes after the International Monetary Fund earlier this month said the kingdom’s economic recovery was expected to be sluggish, uneven, and subject to heightened uncertainty, with a projected GDP growth of 2.6 percent this year. [South China Morning Post]

Thailand: Joint parliament session on charter proposals scheduled for June 22,23

(pr) Members of parliament’s lower and upper house have agreed to hold a joint parliamentary session on June 22 and 23 to discuss amendments to the 2017 Constitution, as attempts to amend the charter have stalled since parliamentarians failed to finish the second reading of a bill on a national referendum in April. [Bangkok Post 1]

Calls to amend the Constitution on a chapter-to-chapter basis had been growing since March, when an opposition-sponsored charter amendment bill failed to get the support of a majority of members of the House and at least of one-third, or 84, of the Senators, as required as per Section 256 of the Constitution [see AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5].

During an extraordinary session held in April, then, the joint parliament failed to finish the second reading of a government-sponsored referendum bill, which had past its first reading in December of last year. The exercise had to be suspended when too few lawmakers and Senators showed up to reach the minimum quorum, chiefly because of widespread concern among them about the third wave of COVID-19 infections. [AiR No. 15, April/2021, 2].

Amendments to the Constitution are now expected to be pursuit via three bills – two government-sponsored and one opposition-backed.

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) has already submitted an amendment bill to Parliament President Chuan Leekpai. The key element in the PPRP-sponsored bill deals with provisions associated with the voting system, seeking to revert from the current single ballot for constituency and party-list MPs to two separate ballots. Importantly, the draft does not propose any changes to Section 272, which empowers the 250 appointed Senators to vote in the election of the prime minister. [AiR No. 16, April/2021, 3]

The current mixed-member proportional representation system uses only one ballot and makes it difficult for any one party to win a majority of seats to form a single-party government. Meanwhile, Section 272 has been criticized as a tool to keep the Prime Minister in power as the Senators were handpicked by those associated with the junta from the 2014 coup.

Another charter amendment bill expected to be tabled for Parliament’s consideration is sponsored by Democrat, Bhumjaithai and Chartthaipattana Parties, all constituent parties of the ruling government coalition.

The opposition Pheu Thai Party (PTP), in turn, has announced it will submit a charter amendment motion that targets five different sections of the 2007 Constitution - most notably Section 256 - to pave the way for a charter drafting assembly.

Other sections to be amended under the bill seek the inclusion of more rights and liberties, amendment of the voting system in favor of a two-ballots system, removal of the Senate’s power in choosing the Prime Minister as outlined in Section 272, and the deletion of all provisions legalizing all the announcements and orders of the now-defunct executive body of the military junta, the National Council for Peace and Order.

Importantly, the PTP is pressing for its referendum draft bill to be heard first, because it seeks to introduce sweeping changes to the 2007 Constitution and thus - as per a ruling by the Constitution Court this March - requires a public referendum be conducted prior to and following the amendment process [see AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. [Bangkok Post 2]

The bill submitted by PPRP is expected to receive parliamentary approval with support of the Senate. However, observers are skeptical of the proposed changes by the PPRP as the single-ballot voting system is beneficial to it and prevents big parties like PTP from forming a single-party majority, as demonstrated in the last general election. They also warn that this may be a ruse to buy time, as PPRP and the Senate can reject the bill in the subsequent readings.

Other observers believe that the single-ballot system which helped PPRP in the last general election may come back and stab it in the back as PPRP is gaining popularity while PTP is losing its influence so it may have the opposite effect. New parties like Thai Srang Thai Party of Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, former PTP chief strategist, and Kla Party led by former Democrat Korn Chatikavanij may form a coalition with PPRP if they can secure a good number of seats. [Bangkok Post 3]

Thailand: Leaders of ruling PPRP dismiss possibility of snap election

(pr) Leading government officials, including Deputy Prime Ministers Wissanu Krea-ngam and Prawit Wongsuwan have dismissed growing speculations that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha might dissolve parliament’s lower house and call for early elections, one year before the four-year term expires. [Bangkok Post 1]

The rebuffs follow on comments by the prime minister, who earlier last week called on members of his Cabinet to expedite project proposals for next year as the government has one year left in office. In an ensuing press briefing Prime Minister Prayut also discussed other issues to be addressed, including economic revitalization and education reform. Observers have interpreted the remarks as an indication of a possible dissolution of the House of Representative. [Bangkok Post 2]

Reports of growing disunity and bickering between the ruling Phalang Pracharat Party, the leading party in the coalition, and its three major partners, the Bhumjaithai, Democrat, and Chat Thai Phatthana Parties, lent further weight to the speculations. Especially Public Health Minister and leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul, was believed to be upset when Prime Minister Prayut transferred ministerial powers covering 31 laws under his direct control in an effort to control the COVID-19 pandemic [see AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1].

Moreover, A PPRP source said the party leader instructed its members, lawmakers, and ministers to prepare for the election. Main coalition parties have also expressed readiness for a new election.

Observers believe that if the Prime Minister were to dissolve parliament’s lower house, he would do it early next year when the pandemic situation is expected to have improved and the economy has recovered.

Moreover, according to the law, the next general election utilizes a method of primary votes where party members vote for their electoral constituency and party-list candidates. To field candidates, political parties must have branches in constituencies. However, the PPRP does not have sufficient party branches yet. Therefore, if the party pushed for an amendment on the primary vote method, this may be considered a clear sign that a general election is looming. [Bangkok Post 3]

At this stage, however, academics and sources in the PPRP and Democrat Party believe that it is unlikely that Prime Minister Prayut would dissolve the House and call for snap elections. For a new election risks a shift in political power, especially if constituent parties of the ruling coalition gain more seats. As things stand, Prayut can use the dissolution of House as leverage to keep the ruling coalition intact.

As for the next election, the Prime Minister will call for an election only when the PPRP has a political advantage.

Importantly, there are several factors which determine whether the Prime Minister remains in power such as the popularity of the PPRP and the result of the constitution amendment process: Many observers believe that PPRP is still popular in the provinces due to financial relief schemes and cash handouts. The PPRP’s win in the by-elections demonstrate the growth of the party. The change in executive leadership of Thamanat Prompow as secretary-general of the PPRP is also necessary to secure support bases [see article in this edition]. [Bangkok Post 4]

Thailand: Ruling PPRP gears up for annual meeting, amid rumors of new party secretary general

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) is preparing for its annual party assembly to be held on 18 June in the northeastern province of Khon Kaen. [Bangkok Post]

In the run-up to the party congress, reports had emerged claiming the meeting might consider a proposal to replace incumbent PPRP Secretary-General Anucha Nakasai with Thamanat Prompow. Observers took the view that PPRP leader and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon might push for changes in the party leadership in order to revamp party leadership to secure support bases for votes in the event of snap elections.

Anucha Nakasai, who currently also serves as Minister of the Prime Minister's Office, is a key member of the Sam Mitr (Three Allies) faction, which was instrumental in cobbling together the PPRP with veteran politicians from several parties, including Pheu Thai Party [see AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1].

More recently, however, the faction was said to have upset Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha in its attempt to secure the energy portfolio during the latest cabinet reshuffle. The faction is also believed to be on bad terms with Labor Minister Narumon Pinyosinwat, who is considered one of Prawit’s close confidants.

Thamanat, in turn, is the sitting Deputy Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister. He is a high-profile politician, another confidant of Prawit, and a power broker of the coalition. The Constitutional Court ruled in May that he was qualified to retain his position despite a conviction by an Australian court for drug-trafficking [see AiR No. No. 19, May/2021, 2].

Thailand: Official Information Act Amendment Bill withdrawn from Parliament

(pr) Following public outcry by civil society groups, the government has withdrawn a bill proposing to amend the Official Information Act, after it was already scheduled for parliamentary consideration. [Prachatai, in Thai]

The amendments proposed by the Prime Minister’s Office would allow state officials to prohibit the disclosure of any official information deemed potentially damaging to the monarchy, national defense and security, and intelligence, among others. It also increased the punishment for violations from a maximum of three years imprisonment to ten years. The bill was approved by the Cabinet in March.

Observers view that draft amendments to the Official Information Act would have further restricted access to public information which leads to corruption susceptibility, and reduction of the power of the media in reporting on government actions.

Thailand: Myanmar journalists and crew members arrested in Thailand now ‘safe in third country’

(pr) Three Myanmar journalists and two activists who illegally crossed into Thailand to flee the military crackdown are now safe in a third country, after facing possible deportation, their news station said on June 7. [Prachatai English]

The group of five was arrested in the northern city of Chiang Mai in May and charged with illegal entry soon thereafter. A Thai court earlier this month convicted them of illegal entry with seven-months imprisonment but had their sentences suspended for one year and fined them $128 each. [AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]

Thailand: Three individuals face royal defamation charge, one reported by private citizen

(pr) Prominent protest leader Chaiamorn “Ammy” Kaewwiboonpan and another activist are facing royal defamation charges for an incident dating back to a protest earlier in January this year. Both have already reported to police, and were granted bail on the condition that they not flee or tamper with the evidence.

Chaiamorn was previously granted conditional bail on May 11 from charges including lèse majesté for burning the King’s portrait and sedition for his actions during political rallies. His bail conditions require that he not dishonor the monarchy or cause unrest. [AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]

According to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, this is the 17th royal defamation case in which the public prosecutor has ordered an indictment since the law began to be used against pro-democracy protesters in November 2020. Royal defamation is a criminal offense under Thai law and carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison.

In related news, the president of the Blind Society Association of Thailand alleged to the police that another blind person has committed lèse majesté for sharing a comment critical of the Queen. [Prachatai English 2]

Thailand: Opposition Move Forward Party proposes new bill to protect indigenous culture

(pr) Lawmakers from the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) have submitted a bill on the protection of indigenous peoples’ rights and culture to Speaker of Parliament’s lower house Chuan Leekpai. The “Strengthening and Protection of Ethnic Way of Life” bill proposes the indigenous people’s rights of preservation and utilization of natural resources and pursuance of their cultural heritage without facing discrimination. [Prachatai English]

Thailand is a signatory to the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), a non-binding instrument which provides universal framework of minimum standards for the protection of indigenous peoples. Yet, the country does currently not have a comprehensive national legislation on the protection of indigenous peoples.

In addition to the bill proposed by MFP, several other bills on indigenous people rights have been proposed, including a draft by the Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn Anthropology Centre, which, if passed, would establish a mechanism for government agencies to resolve indigenous right issues. The draft is now completed and is currently in the process of gathering opinions from relevant stakeholders.

The Network of Indigenous Peoples in Thailand, in turn, proposed a bill on the establishment of an indigenous people council to better protect their rights and strengthen the unity of indigenous peoples. The bill, backed by over 13,000 signatures, was submitted to parliament earlier in April.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

G7 Summit 2021: Key takeaways and plans for the future

(ad) This year’s G7 Summit took place in Cornwall in the United Kingdom from 11th June to 13th June, with discussions over climate change, the pandemic and international relations. The meeting included the leaders of the G7, as well as representatives of European Commission and European Council and three guest nations, Australia, India and South Korea.

The Summit had three important focuses.

First is to donate 1 billion vaccines to poorer nations to help combat COVID-19. However, this pledge falls extremely short of the actual doses needed, up to 11 billion doses. Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called the summit “an unforgivable moral failure” and that these efforts will still leave millions of people unvaccinated. 

The second item on the agenda was on the environment. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that the G7 wanted to “drive a global Green Industrial Revolution”. The G7 leaders all committed to reducing their carbon emissions by 50 percent by 2030. They also pledged to stop using coal and end support for the fossil fuel sector. Their ultimate goal is to use wind, solar and other renewable sources of energy. However, they never agreed on a date to stop using coal. Greenpeace International Executive Director Jennifer Morgan voiced her disappointment over this, “This was a moment when the G7 could have shown historic leadership, and instead they left a massive void”. [CNA] [Singapore Tattler] [Deutsche Welle]

The third and perhaps the most important agenda for the summit was how the G7 as a whole could combat China’s rising influence. Prior to the summit, Chinese Embassy’s spokesperson in London stated, “The days when global decisions were dictated by a small group of countries are long gone”, specifically targeting the G7 Summit.

For most G7 countries, dealing with China has proved to be a paradox, whereby they needed China to cooperate with them over climate change and simultaneously, maintain a strong stance against China’s human rights violations and exploitative methods.

Biden’s Indo-Pacific policy director described this as “complex coexistence paradigms”. President Biden has proposed plans for a western belt and road initiative, designed to counter China’s growing dominance. The Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative is created to provide infrastructure to low- and middle-income nations. Council of Foreign Relations representative Jennifer Hillman stated that B3W was created not to get rid of the Belt and Road initiative, but instead to provide an alternative competitor to balance the power struggle. [The Guardian] [White House]

China poses “systemic challenges”, NATO says

(dql) The 30 leaders of the NATO allies agreed at their summit in Brussels on Monday to send a strong signal to China. Their communiqué, which touches in 79 points on a wide range of issues including also Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, and climate change to outer space, states with regards to China that “China’s stated ambitions and assertive behaviour present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security.” It, further, cited Beijing’s coercive policies contradicting “fundamental values enshrined in the Washington Treaty,” the NATO founding treaty, as well as its “rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal,” as sources of the NATO’s security concerns. At the same time, the NATO “remains NATO maintains a constructive dialogue with China where possible,” welcoming “opportunities to engage with China on areas of relevance to the Alliance and on common challenges such as climate change.” [NATO]

The communiqué demonstrates the alliance’s robust stance towards China. However, remarks of European leaders also reflect reluctance to see Europe and their countries dragged into a outright confrontation and showdown with China. French President Macron cautioned that “NATO is a military organization, the issue of our relationship with China isn’t just a military issue,” stressing the importance “that we don’t scatter ourselves and that we don’t bias our relationship with China.” Similarly, German Chancellor Merkel demanded a “right balance” in dealing with China, underscoring that on many issues it is not possible to ignore China. [Reuters] [New York Times][Politico] [DW]

US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, used the NATO summit (and the G7 summit) for a successful and forceful demonstration of his determination to reclaim US leadership in global governance under his motto “America is back.” [Washington Post]

Biden is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Geneva for bilateral talks amid frosty US-Russian relations.

China-US relations: US Senate passes massive spending plan to counter Chinese technology challenge

(dql) In a rare bi-partisan move, US Senate lawmakers from both political parties approved a bill to boost technology research and production to counter China’s technology challenge. The bill authorizes 250 billion USD in funding for technology research, semiconductor development and manufacturing, as well as subsidies for robot makers and chipmakers. [BBC]

The bill’s passage comes as the US and European Union are expected to announce the creation of a new joint technology body, the US-EU Trade and Technology Council, aimed at setting up new global trade standards for emerging technology, promoting democratic values online and identifying ways for both sides to cooperate in cutting-edge research and development. [CNBC]

Meanwhile, Sino-US tensions over human rights and the origin of the coronavirus flared up in a phone call between China’s top foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. While the latter reiterated concerns over the erosion of democratic norms in Hong Kong and over “genocide and crimes against humanity” and demanded a second investigation of the origin of the virus in China, the former denounced “any despicable acts that use the epidemic as an excuse to slander China and to shift blames,” as well as US-fabricated “lies about Xinjiang in an attempt to sabotage the stability and unity in Xinjiang.” [AP]

Japan-Taiwan relations are “non-governmental”, Tokyo confirms 

(nd) Following Beijing’s protest over a recent reference to the Taiwan as a country, the Japanese government has backtracked and re-affirmed that the country’s relations with Taiwan are non-governmental, practical and based on Tokyo’s recognition of China’s “one country, two systems” and of China as the sole legitimate government. 

China’s protest came after Prime Minister Yohishide Suga in a parliamentary debate had called Taiwan a country during a press conference. [The China Post] 

Meanwhile, a motion calling for Taiwan’s attendance at the World Health Assembly (WHA) was unanimously approved by Japan’s Upper House on 11 June, marking first time that Japan’s House of Councillors has supported Taiwan’s participation in international organizations through a resolution. [Taiwan News]

Taiwan, US to resume talks on Trade and Investment Framework Agreement

(nd) On 10 June, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai had a virtual meeting with Taiwanese Minister-Without-Portfolio John Deng to discuss US-Taiwan trade relations. The two officials committed to convening the 11th Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) Council meeting, which has been dormant since 2016. The meeting will take place in the coming weeks. [Focus Taiwan]

For political, economic and strategic reasons why the time is ripe for a US-Taiwan free trade agreement, see David Sacks and Jennifer Hillman in [Council on Foreign Relations]. 

Cross-strait relations: Chinese warplanes in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone

(nds) Tawain’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed that a Chinese Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane flew into the southwest corner of Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on 12 June. In response, Taiwan's government issued radio warnings, sent aircraft, and deployed air defense missile systems to track the plane.

It is the third time this month that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force has violated Taiwan's ADIZ. [Taiwan News]

In a latest development, China sent 28 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone on Tuesday. The move comes a day after the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carried out maritime security operations, strike exercises and coordinated tactical training in the South China Sea. [South China Morning Post 1]

Meanwhile, the Chinese military has reportedly deployed additional surveillance forces in the air and waters near a disputed South China Sea archipelago, including a Type-815G spy ship, a navy Y-8Q maritime patrol aircraft and a KJ-500 airborne early warning and control plane. [South China Morning Post 2]

Taiwan expresses appreciation for G7 support

(nds) Taiwanese authorities have extended their appreciation to the leaders of the Group of Seven, following their communique in which they underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues. It is the first time that G7 leaders have expressed such Taiwan-friendly content, reflecting a shift towards a more muscular stance against China with regards to cross-strait relations.

Although most countries, including G7 members, do not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, they have recently deepened their support for the island. [Taiwan News]

South Korea-China relations: G7 summit exposes Seoul’s balancing act in US-China conflict 

(nm) As the Group of Seven (G7) leaders met for their annual summit last week, the need for South Korea to carefully balance the interests of the United States and its allies on the one hand and Chinese interests on the other hand has been exposed. In a joint statement issued after the summit, the G7 nations urged China to respect human rights and fundamental freedoms in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, but South Korea’s vice foreign minister claims no such topics were discussed in the meetings South Korea partook in, dismissing claims that Seoul’s participation in the gathering could lead to Seoul siding with the United States. In a phone call prior to the summit, Chinese foreign minister Wany Yi reportedly told his South Korean counterpart Chung Eui-yong, Seoul should not become trapped in a “biased” way of thinking and that both nations needed to maintain a “political consensus”. China is South Korea’s largest trading partner while the US functions as Seoul’s most important military ally. [Korea Times 1] [Korea Times 2] [Korea Herald 1]

On the sidelines of the summit, President Moon Jae-in further met the leaders of several nations, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and US foreign minister Antony Blinken. Blinken and Moon discussed follow-up measures to their nations’ May 21 summit, stressing multilateral efforts in the region, a speedy vaccine distribution, and the Myanmar conflict, while reaffirming their commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Following the summit, Moon also travelled to Austria as the first Korean president to make a state visit to the country since the establishment of bilateral ties in 1892. [Korea Herald 2] [Korea Herald 3] [Korea Herald  4] [Korea Herald 5]

South Korea-Japan relations: Bilateral summit meeting called off by Japan 

(nm) According to the South Korean foreign ministry, Japan has unilaterally called off a planned bilateral meeting between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on the sidelines of last week’s Group of Seven (G7) summit in England, referring to the conflict around the debated Dokdo/Takeshima – or Liancourt Rocks – islets. South Korea, alongside Australia, India, and South Africa, had been invited to this year’s G7 summit as a guest nation. 

This week, South Korea is conducting its annual military drill on and around Liancourt Rocks which are at the center of a diplomatic dispute between the two nations as both claim them as part of their territory. The conflict around the islets erupts regularly and was renewed recently as Japan identified them as part of its territory on an official map for the Tokyo Olympics. [Korea Herald 1]

The planned bilateral meeting had been met with some anticipation and some observers had even speculated for a trilateral meeting including the United States which would have highlighted the three nations’ partnership in the Indo-Pacific region. According to one Japanese newspaper, the Japanese government also opposed the expansion of the Group of Seven to include South Korea. [Nikkei Asia 1] [Korea Times 1] [Korea Times 2] [Korea Herald 2]

Although the United States are currently trying to build a stable trilateral cooperation with both Japan and South Korea, wartime issues and economic tensions are considerable obstacles and have led to the deterioration of bilateral relations. A recent South Korean court ruling rejecting compensation claims by victims of wartime forced labour against several Japanese companies, however, supposedly opened up some room for a diplomatic solution to the issue. [Nikkei Asia 2] 

Inter-Korean relations: Seoul calls for reconciliatory spirit ahead of summit anniversary 

(nm) South Korea’s unification ministry called on North Korea to respect the spirit of reconciliation and to respond to efforts of dialogue as this week marks the 21st anniversary of the June 15 Declaration adopted in Pyongyang in 2000 which establishes the principle of peaceful reunification and the normalisation of relations between the two Koreas. 

Also, this week, President Moon Jae-in of South Korea said Seoul would proactively push for cooperation to provide North Korea with Covid-19 vaccines, if Pyongyang agrees, as his nation is working towards becoming a “global vaccine production hub”.  

Relations between Pyongyang and Seoul have not significantly improved since the failed 2019 summit between Washington and Pyongyang which ended without a deal. Recent inter-Korean tensions include anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets which had been sent over the border from South Korea by activist groups in defiance of a recently established South Korean anti-leafletting law as well as the lifting of US guidelines on South Korea’s missile capabilities. [Korea Herald 1] [Korea Herald 2]

North Korea: G7 group calls for complete denuclearization of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)

(nd) The Group of Seven (G7) released a joint statement, on 13 June, calling for the complete denuclearization of the DPRK while welcoming the U.S. commitment under President Joe Biden to engage with North Korea through diplomacy. The G7 leaders demanded a "verifiable and irreversible" abandonment of Pyongyang's ballistic programs and weapons of mass destruction. 

This joint statement is in line with the summit that took place between President Moon Jae-in and President Joe Biden last month. At the time, the U.S. president already emphasized Washington's willingness to engage diplomatically with Pyongyang to take pragmatic steps toward denuclearization. The DPRK reportedly remains silent to this demand. [Yonhap] 

North Korea: NATO leaders call on North Korea to engage in dialogue with the United States

(nd) The United States and 29 other member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) asked North Korea to engage in "meaningful" dialogue with Washington to achieve complete denuclearization. Besides, they urge Pyongyang to fully implement its international obligations while also calling on others to fully implement the United Nations Security Council resolutions on North Korea.

Since the Hanoi summit in February 2019, North Korea remained on the sidelines of the denuclearization negotiations. Discussions between Leader Kim Jong-un and former U.S. President Donald Trump ended without a deal. North Korea has yet to answer to the U.S. recent overtures. [Yonhap]

Pakistan snubs United States, says it has focus on its own ‘interests’

(ra/lm) Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi last week categorically stated his country would not give any military base to the United States, in response to a flurry of speculations in this matter. In an interview, the top diplomat also said Pakistan would have to look after its own interests, indicating that granting basing rights to the US is not considered advantageous. [The Diplomat] [The News International]

The remarks came hot on the heels of an article by The New York Times that said C.I.A. director William J. Burns had made an unannounced visit in recent weeks to Islamabad to meet with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa and General Faiz Hameed, the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country’s military intelligence agency. [New York Times]

The visit came after US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1]. It also followed a meeting between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and his Pakistani counterpart, Moeed Yusuf [see AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4], one of the few known in-person, high-level meetings between the countries under US President Biden’s administration.

Burns’s secret visit to Islamabad assumes added significance, coming against the backdrop of recent intelligence reports that highlight gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan, and thus have boosted Washington’s last-minutes efforts to secure bases close to Afghanistan to ensure a long-term intelligence-gathering presence — in addition to military and C.I.A. counterterrorism operations —long after the deadline that President Biden has set for troops to leave the country. [Voice of America]

But the complexity of the continuing conflict has led to thorny diplomatic negotiations as the military pushes to have all forces out by early to mid-July, well before President Biden’s deadline of September 11.

In discussions between US and Pakistani officials, the Pakistanis have reportedly demanded a variety of restrictions in exchange for the use of a base in the country, and they have effectively required that they sign off on any targets that either the C.I.A. or the military would want to hit inside Afghanistan.

Moreover, potential military cooperation with the US has given Pakistan “some space” to delay a raise in power tariffs and sales taxes requested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin.            Islamabad is in talks with the Washington-based institution to release the next tranche of funding under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, which should eventually bring Islamabad $6 billion [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. [Financial Times]

Indian foreign Minister meets with Qatar’s NSA, as New Delhi opens channels with Afghan Taliban

(ad/lm) Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar last week made a surprise stopover in Qatar to meet with Doha’s National Security Advisor Mohamed Bin Ahmed Al Mesned in Doha on June 9.

The meeting assumes added significance, coming as it does at a time when New Delhi is believed to have opened channels of communication with Afghan Taliban factions and leaders – a move that marks a significant shift from its long-held position of not engaging with the hard-line insurgent group in any way. [Hindustan Times]

India’s change of heart comes at a time when the United States last week reached the midpoint in its task of withdrawing troops and equipment out of Afghanistan before the September 11 deadline set by US President Biden. Importantly, recent intelligence reports have suggested that Taliban militants are gathering across Afghanistan in preparation for a possible takeover of the country by force as US and NATO troops exit over the next few months. [Bloomberg]

Lending further credence is the fact that Jaishankar’s visit coincided with a meeting between US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad and Abdul Hakim Sheikh, the Taliban’s key negotiator. The meeting, the latest in series of meetings held last week to review to the peace process in Afghanistan, was the first between Washington and the Taliban first since mid-May, following weeks of stalemate. [Doha News]

Close ties between the Taliban and the Pakistani military establishment have long prevented New Delhi from establishing contacts with the Islamist insurgent group. Moreover, India’s contributions to Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development efforts lag other regional players – most notably Russia, China and Iran.

But the perception that the Taliban are no longer a monolithic organisation, and some factions may not be completely under the sway of Pakistan, has gained ground in recent years.

New Delhi’s outreach is largely being led by Indian security officials and has focused on Taliban factions and leaders that are perceived as being “nationalist” or – unlike the Haqqani Network or members of the Quetta Shura – outside the sphere of influence of Pakistan and Iran. A case in point is Abdul Ghani Baradar, the co-founder of the Taliban in Afghanistan and one of the group’s main negotiators. Importantly, Baradar signed the deal with then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in February 2020 that paved the way for the current withdrawal of US troops.

Importantly, the outreach to Taliban leaders is proceeding in parallel with New Delhi’s engagement with different segments of the Afghan leadership, including President Ashraf Ghani’s government and key leaders such as former president Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation.        A visit to Kabul last month by joint secretary JP Singh, the external affairs ministry’s point person for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, was part of the continuing engagement with Afghan leaders.

Pakistan hopes to secure nearly $16 billion in foreign loans

(ra/lm) Beyond the uncertainty on and across its borders with neighboring Afghanistan, Pakistan currently faces another major challenge - debt rescheduling – as the government is planning to secure nearly $16 billion in foreign loans in the next fiscal year to meet requirements of maturing external public debt and finance a $4 billion fiscal budget deficit. [Dawn] [The Express Tribune]

Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance expects $15.7 billion in borrowings for the fiscal year 2021-22, a nearly 10 percent increase over this year's revised estimates of foreign economic assistance. What is more, nearly two-third of these loans will be used to return the maturing external public debt, excluding interest payment. 

Over the course of the outgoing fiscal year, the government has received an estimated $14.3 billion in foreign loans, the so far highest in the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) tenure. Cumulatively, the PTI government has borrowed $38.7 billion. Between July 2018 and March of this year, the PTI government has added $15 billion in external public debt, while the rest of the loans was used to repay the maturing loans.

Prime Minister Khan’s government is currently in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the next loan tranche of $1 billion that will be disbursed at the beginning of new fiscal year, subject to an agreement between the two sides.

Pakistan expects to receive $3.1 billion from the IMF in the next fiscal year, subject to successful completion of quarterly reviews. During the current fiscal year, the IMF approved a $500 million disbursement to Pakistan, the third loan tranche under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) which should eventually bring Islamabad $6 billion [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4].

Overall, Islamabad hopes to secure $5.4 billion in budgetary support from multilateral creditors in next fiscal year, including the IMF, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Islamic Development Bank.

China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor enters second phase

(lm) Less than two months after top leaders of China and Pakistan agreed to accelerate the completion of projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) [see AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4], subtle signs of unease between the two sides over the future direction and subsequent funding of the major infrastructure agreement have increased.

Since it was launched six years ago, the far-reaching project has come to represent Beijing’s wider geopolitical ambitions, with CPEC forming the backbone of China's presence in Pakistan and symbolizing the “all-weather friendship” between the two countries.    Over the years, however, CPEC has morphed in size and scope. Though often valued at $62 billion, only about $25 billion worth of CPEC projects have so far been developed, giving rise to concerns that the alliance has been exacting on Pakistan’s resources, people and international reputation. [AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2]

More recently, Pakistani government officials have raised concerns over Beijing’s reluctance to provide new loans for the construction of Mainline-1, a $6.8 billion project to upgrade railway infrastructure in the Peshawar – Lahore – Karachi corridor [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]. [The Express Tribune]

Work on the first phase of the project was scheduled to commence in January and be completed in 2024. Earlier in April, Pakistan indicated its approval to a revised Chinese loan proposal, agreeing to borrow $6 billion in both Chinese and US currencies. The remaining $800 million were supposed to be provided by Islamabad as equity. [AiR No. 17, April/2021, 4]

But Pakistan has only allocated approx. $39.6 million for the project in its proposed budget for the next fiscal year, which is almost 40 percent less than what it had indicated at the initial budget approval stage. Pakistani officials said they hopes to secure funding from China for the major railroad project in next fiscal year.

Moreover, a subsidiary of Pakistan’s largest Independent Power Producer (IPP) is facing liquidity issues because of unpaid government subsidies. Islamabad’s circular debt grew to almost $15 billion before the government two weeks ago paid more than $550 million to 20 IPPs under renegotiated power purchase agreements [see AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1]. [Dawn]

Pakistan’s Gwadar Port loses luster as Saudi Arabia shifts $10 billion deal to Karachi

(ra/lm) Saudi Arabia has decided to shift a proposed $10 billion oil refinery to Karachi from Gwadar, the focal point China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan, lending further weight to concerns that Riyadh is attaching a declining importance to Islamabad. [Nikkei Asia] [The Interpreter]

During a 2019 visit to Pakistan by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, more than $20 billion of Saudi investments in Pakistan was announced, including $10 billion in an oil refinery and petrochemical complex at in the port city Gwadar. At the time, Islamabad was struggling with declining foreign exchange reserves.

But during Pakistani Prime Minister Khan’s recent visit, the Saudis only agreed to finance $500 million worth of projects in Pakistan under the Saudi Development Fund, a significantly scaled-down economic footprint [see AiR No. 19, May/2021, 2].

Experts say a mega oil refinery in Gwadar was never feasible, because it would have necessitated the construction of a 600-kilometre oil pipeline connecting the city with the country’s consumption centers, most notably the city of Karachi.

Another reason for Riyadh’s decision might be the ongoing negotiations between Pakistan and Russia on investment in the country’s energy sector. In 2019, a Russian delegation pledged investment of $14 billion in different energy projects including pipelines. So far, these pledges have not materialized, but Moscow's pledge provided Pakistan with an alternative to the Saudis, which probably irritated Riyadh.

Of course, the general global economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices will have also played a role. But at the same time, the Saudi petroleum and natural gas company behind the refinery, Saudi Aramco, is implementing plans to invest in a $70 billion complex in India under a joint venture.

Local politicians consider the shifting of the oil refinery a huge loss for economic development in Gwadar, the fulcrum of 50$ billion in projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For the decision has shattered the image of the port city as an up-and-coming major commercial hub, which was expected to add 1.2 million additional jobs in the region.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Khan holds phone conversation with British counterpart Johnson

(ra) On July 7, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke over the phone to discuss the current situation in Afghanistan. Both leaders agreed on the need to ensure a long-term future of peace and stability in the country. [GOV.UK]

Importantly, the United Kingdom has seen itself as a mediator between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Most notably General Sir Nick Carter, the British Chief of the Defense Staff, is believed to have played a key role in facilitating a recent meeting between Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Vice-President Amrullah Saleh in the Afghan capital Kabul on May 6 [see AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]

Indian foreign minister visits New Delhi’s East African partner, Kenya

(ad) India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on June 12 commenced a two-day visit to Kenya aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation for peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. The visit signals New Delhi’s ambitions to strengthen ties with key African allies, especially as the country plans to host the fourth India-Africa Summit later in the year. [The East African]

Both India and Kenya are currently serving on the UN Security Council until December next year. Moreover, alongside with South Africa, Seychelles, Mauritius and various other countries in the western part of the Indian Ocean, the two countries are member states of the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation.

To explore a widening partnership, a series of meetings was held, most notably the third session of the India-Kenya Joint Commission, which had last met in March 2019 in New Delhi. During his visit, the Indian top diplomat also interacted with the Indian diaspora in Kenya, which has over 80,000 residents of Indian origin, with 20,000 being Indian citizens. [The Print]

India, Kuwait sign agreement to streamline recruitment of Indian domestic workers

(ad) India and Kuwait have signed an agreement to streamline the recruitment of Indian domestic workers, the key outcome of a visit by India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Doha that concluded on June 11. [The Hindu] [Times of India] 

Jaishankar arrived in Kuwait City on June 8 - his first visit to the oil-rich Gulf nation – to further cement bilateral ties and thank Kuwait for supporting India during the raging second wave of Covid-19 pandemic by acting as logistics hub for liquid medical oxygen supplies to western India.

Other points of concern were the welfare of the Indian community in the Gulf as well as strengthening trade interests that would aid in economic recovery post COVID-19.

US official raises concerns of Indian government’s actions

(ad) A high-ranking US official in a congressional hearing last week said that “some of the Indian government’s actions have raised concerns that are inconsistent with India’s democratic values”.

Dean Thompson, Acting Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, took examples of “increasing restrictions on freedom of expression” and “detention of human rights activists and journalists”. Thompson also said Washington regularly engages in and on these issues, including the important work of civil society. [The Indian Express]

China, Pakistan to set up joint media outlet to counter West’s ‘info dominance’, according to report

(ra) A new media organization to counter Western-centric narratives promoted in the news is in the works by China and Pakistan. Both countries hope to create a television channel to promote narratives that view Pakistan and China in a positive light.

Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated the importance of giving China a more trustworthy image in the eyes of the world. While China has reportedly agreed to fund the new organization, Pakistan has considered setting up the new organizational headquarters within its borders. [WION]

While China’s internal political and media culture does not allow for open media, Pakistan’s seems favorable for a media outlet to begin its work. However, Pakistan’s lack of financial resources can be overcome with China’s financial wealth – making for a synergistic collaboration between both countries. The new media channel hopes to mirror Qatar’s Al-Jazeera or Russia’s RT network, aiming to include journalists at an international level. [Hindustan Times]

Pakistan, Iraq discuss bilateral relations

(ra) Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Iraqi President Barham Salih met in Baghdad on 29 May to express his country’s desire to expand bilateral ties between the two countries. He also affirmed Pakistan’s support for Iraq’s sovereignty. [The News]

Qureshi also met with his Iraqi counterparty Fuad Hussein. Both ministers expressed interest in enhancing cooperation with each other in the United Nations and the Organisation of the Islamic Cooperation. Previously, Pakistan had cooperated with Iraq to provide Iraq relief goods to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. [Tribune]

Pakistan potential buyer of Ukrainian anti-tank guided missile system

(ra) Pakistan is a potential buyer of a new anti-tank guided missile system produced by a Ukrainian defense company. In May, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa visited a military test site in Kharkiv, Ukraine, to witness tests of the anti-tank missile system and other combat vehicles. During his visit, General Bajwa expressed his interest in “enhancing defense cooperation” with Ukraine by transferring technologies and exchanging mutually beneficial experiences with each other. [South Asia Monitor]

Indian and Thai navies conduct coordinated patrol exercises

(ad) The navies of India and Thailand on June 11 concluded the 31st edition of biannual Coordinated Patrol (CORPAT) exercise in the Andaman Sea. [Defence Aviation Post]

To reinforce maritime links, the two navies have been carrying out CORPAT along their International Maritime Boundary Line since 2005, with the aim of ensuring safety and security of shipping and international trade in the region.

Myanmar junta defends response to crisis amid ASEAN criticism

(lm) Myanmar’s foreign minister has defended the junta’s plan for restoring democracy, after a meeting at which his Southeast Asian counterparts pressed the military to implement a five-point “consensus” concluded at the ASEAN Summit held back in April. [The Straits Times]

At the China-ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting on June 6, the bloc’s top diplomats expressed disappointment at the "very slow" progress made by Myanmar on its five-point roadmap for ending the turmoil that has continued since the army staged a coup an ousted elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1. [AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]

But on June 8, in the only reference to the ASEAN proposal, state media in Myanmar cited Foreign Minister Maung Lwin as telling his ASEAN counterparts that the junta had made progress on its own five-step roadmap for the country, which was unveiled by the governing body of the regime, the State Administration Council, after the coup. [see The Global New Light of Myanmar]

What is more, in the only reference to the ASEAN proposal, Lwin was cited as saying "discussions were made cordially" on it during recent discussion between two high-ranking ASEAN officials and the Myanmar military leadership.

UN Rights envoy warns of risk of starvation in Myanmar’s Kayah State

(lm) Myanmar’s eastern state of Kayah could suffer a “massive” loss of life, a UN human rights investigator warned on June 9, as more than 100,000 people have fled their homes to escape conflict. [The Straits Times]

Myanmar's military has been battling on multiple fronts to impose order, more than four months after its takeover against leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her elected government sparked nationwide protests. Kayah State, which borders Thailand, is one of several regions where volunteer People's Defence Forces have clashed with Myanmar's well-equipped army, the Tatmadaw, which has responded with artillery and air strikes.

According to the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, "indiscriminate attacks by security forces against civilian areas" have triggered an exodus into nearby forests, with an estimated 100,000 people forced to flee their homes. The UN official also warned that “mass deaths from starvation, disease, and exposure, on a scale we have not yet seen since the February 1 coup, could occur in Kayah State absent immediate action". [The Straits Times 1]

In related news, international medical charity Doctors Without Borders warned on June 9 of "life-threatening" consequences for thousands of HIV and tuberculosis patients in Myanmar after it was ordered by the junta to stop work in the southeastern city of Dawei. Since February, Dawei - the hometown of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing - has seen near daily protests since the putsch, and brutal crackdowns by security forces. [The Straits Times 2]

The previous day, the International Red Cross said it was urgently ramping up efforts to meet the humanitarian needs of 236,000 people in Myanmar, already reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic before the coup struck. The announcement came after the charity's president was granted a rare meeting with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing on June 3 and made the case for better humanitarian access to conflict areas [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2].

Singapore’s prime minister advises Australia to engage with China

(tcy/lm) During a meeting on June 10, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong advised his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison to try and engage with a rising and assertive China. The Australian prime minister arrived in Singapore late on June 9 in a brief stopover on the island nation en route to the G7 Plus summit in the United Kingdom, where he met US President Biden. [see article in this edition] [The Sydney Morning Herald]

The two leaders signed a Memorandum of Understanding on health care and health technology and agreed to start talks on a "fintech bridge" which would make it easier to cooperate on financial technology. They also agreed to begin developing the infrastructure for a travel bubble between the countries, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison declaring he wants the South-East Asian nation to be the next cab off the rank for quarantine-free travel after New Zealand. [abc News]

When exchanging views on how best to handle the increasing strategic competition between the US and China, said Beijing’s substantial presence means countries like Australia will have to work with it on areas of mutual interest rather than ideological differences. The remarks clearly echoed Lee’s previous statements, in which he had argued that Southeast Asia must not be forced into choosing on whether to side with the US or China. [The Diplomat]

Implicit in Lee’s comments to the Australian prime minister was a criticism of an increasing combative rhetoric under Morrison’s coalition government, some of whose officials have in recent months begun speaking openly of war with China.

Importantly, a joint published after the meeting included a passage about the importance of upholding freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. Yet, it did not go as far as the joint statement issued the previous day by the Australian and Japanese foreign affairs and defense ministers, who voiced “serious” or “grave” concerns about a range of issues involving China, including the situation in the East and South China seas, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. [Prime Minister of Australia]

US says full access to Cambodia naval base during invited visit was denied

(lm) The United States’ embassy in Phnom Penh said on June 11 that its defense attaché had been refused full access to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base during an invited visit, just days after Washington expressed concern about China’s military activities at the base. [The Straits Times]

While on an official visit to Cambodia, on June 1, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman raised questions about China’s military presence at the Ream Naval Base and sought clarification about rapid construction of two buildings just north of where United States-funded facilities were demolished by Phnom Penh last year. [AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]

After meeting Sherman, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen agreed to let the US embassy conduct regular visits, with the embassy’s defence attaché invited to the base on June 11. He also suggested that the official should be accompanied by journalists to clear the doubt of alleged government plans for hosting Chinese military assets and personnel.

But during the brief visit, Cambodian military officials refused to allow the US official full access to the Naval Base. The defence attaché therefore ended the tour and requested Cambodian military officials reschedule the visit with full access at the earliest opportunity.

The embassy said routine and frequent visits by US and other foreign military attaches to the base would be an important step towards greater transparency and mutual trust.

Cambodia to battle human trafficking with Vietnam and US

(ad) Vietnamese representatives in Cambodia have received numerous reports on Vietnamese citizens being targeted and cheated by human trafficking rings. According to the Vietnamese embassy in Cambodia, these rings are led by Chinese nationals and include Cambodian and Vietnamese nationals as well. The Vietnamese agencies have contacted authorities in Cambodia to combat and save victims. Human trafficking rings have been targeting migrant workers due to job losses during the pandemic. [Khmer Times]

On a similar note, the US has reaffirmed its commitment to battling human trafficking in Cambodia. The US embassy stated that “Human trafficking affects people in every country on earth, and the United States encourages stronger efforts in Cambodia to prosecute traffickers, protect victims and prevent human trafficking”. With human trafficking on the rise due to the pandemic, it is a serious cause of concern. [Phnom Penh Post]

Japan, Czech Republic work with Cambodia over human resource development

(ad) Japan has recently pledged to continue providing more scholarships and training courses to Cambodia through the Ministry of Interior. The cooperation between the two countries will focus on health, human resource training and social assistance. Similarly, the Czech Republic has also promised its assistance to Cambodia in the human resource industry. Their cooperation will focus more on trade, investment and human resource training. [Khmer Times] [Agence Kampuchea Presse]

Indonesia purchases new frigates from Italian shipbuilder

(sa) Last week, Indonesia signed a deal with Fincantieri, an Italian commercial and military shipbuilder that services the Italian Navy, for six new frigates. In addition, Indonesia purchased two frigates soon to be retired from the Italian Navy and placed into Fincantieri care. [Defense News] 

The move comes as Beijing asserts dominance over the South China Sea region, which Indonesia has laid claims to, through sending its navy and building naval bases. [South China Morning Post]

Indonesia: Indonesian Minster for Maritime Affairs and Investment meets with Chinese Foreign Minister as South China Sea region receives ASEAN attention

(sa) Indonesian Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Pandjaitan, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in China for the inaugural meeting of the China-Indonesia high-level dialogue cooperation mechanism, with both sides signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to enable a “platform for closer dialogue” between the two governments. 

Beyond the MoU, the dialogue between the two sides sought to bolster collaboration a number of areas including healthcare and Covid vaccines, Belt and Road initiative projects, maritime issues as well as cultural and civic exchanges.  

While the dialogue might pay the way for a stronger Sino-Indonesian relations, the South China Sea issue and in particular China’s claims of parts within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone around the Natuna Islands may prove to be a stumbling block in the relationship, with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi calling the region “a test” for Sino-ASEAN relations. [South China Morning Post] [Jakarta Post]

Indonesia: Transportation Minister meets with South Korean Ambassador affirming transportation cooperation

(sa) Indonesian Transportation Minister Budi Karya Sumadi met with South Korean Korean Ambassador Tae Sung Park on 14 June 2021 in discussing the two countries’ commitments with regards to the former’s transportation projects. [Antara News]

Two key projects were discussed, the first project was the Bali Provincial Government’s collaborations with the South Korean government of which there are two components. The first component is to conduct a pre-feasibility study, through the KRNA, on the construction of a light-rail transit (LRT) connecting the Ngurah Rai Airport and Seminyak.  The second collaboration of the Bali Government is its financial cooperation proposal to South Korea for a feasibility study on the same LRT line. [Antara News]

The second project was the Jakarta MRT Fatmawati – Taman Mini Indonesia Inda (TMII) route, which South Korea expressed a desire to cooperate in its construction. Besides these two, several other projects were discussed such as a coal transportation railway line in Sumagsel, Hang Nadim Airport in Batam, and more. [Antara News]

Indonesia, along with South Africa and Mexico, backs G7 Global Tax reform proposal 

(sa) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati along with the Finance Ministers of South Africa Tito Mboweni and Mexico Arturo Herrera Gutierrez, in a joint article with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, endorsed the Group of Seven (G7)’s proposal to the international tax system. [Reuters]

The changes are solely targeted at multinational firms as the G7 economies agreed on a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. Beyond raising tax rates, the changes are also targeted at tax havens to prevent mass capital outflows from the countries multinational corporations such as the likes of Google and Facebook who shift their profits to low-tax offshore havens. [Reuters]

The expected capital inflows and outflows because of the proposed changes are set to have clear losers, it has been expected that Ireland, Brazil, and Hungary are expected to lose from the deal. [Allianz]

Indonesia receives deported citizens from Malaysia and Rohingya refugees 

(sa) Indonesia is preparing to receive around 7200 illegal migrants from Malaysia [Reuters 1]. The development comes as Malaysia grapples with a recent spike in Covid-19 cases that saw the country enter lockdown on June 1 [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1]. 

The 7200 people are expected to be mostly of vulnerable status as Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Human Development Femmy Eka Kartika Putri clarified that in their communications with Malaysia, that Indonesia desired groups such as women and children, who are usually held in detention centres, to be repatriated first. [Reuters 1]

Besides the repatriation of its own citizens, Indonesia also received 81 Rohingya refugees who set off from Bangladesh’s shores as the refugees landed on Idaman Island in Aceh. The refugees have been at sea for 110 days and initially started with 90 refugees on February 11 when it set sail. Indian Coast Guards had found 8 people dead when it tracked the vessel in February. [Reuters 2]

The fate of the refugees in Indonesia are unknown as Wahyu Sisilo, founder of the Migrant Care, an Indonesian non-governmental group, remarked that Indonesian authorities are ill-prepared to receive the planned influx of 7,200 to-be-repatriated Indonesian citizens. According to him, “there are no specific mitigation efforts post-deportation”.  [Reuters 1]

Malaysia: Maritime agency confirms Chinese vessel encroached on Malaysian waters 

(tcy) Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) confirmed that a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel had been detected encroaching Malaysian waters off the coast of Miri on June 4 at Beting Patinggi Ali, also known as Luconia Shoals, which is one of the largest and least-known reef complexes in the South China Sea. [Malay Mail] 

The incident comes shortly after an airspace incursion where 16 aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army-Air Force (PLAAF) were detected flying into the Malaysian Maritime Zone (MMZ) airspace and close to Malaysia’s national airspace on May 31. [Bernama 1] 

Analysts have noted that Malaysia’s response to this incident and to the recent airspace incursion has been uncharacteristically outspoken, pointing to Malaysia’s growing dissatisfaction, given that Malaysia normally refrains from protesting in public view when Chinese ships pass into its waters due to the deep economic relationship it has with China, who is also much stronger militarily. Experts say that the increased frequency of such incursions is likely to be China’s signal of unhappiness towards Malaysia for joining the United States, China’s rival superpower, for military air exercises in the South China Sea in April. [Voice Of Asia]

Philippines: No escalation of territorial dispute, xxtension of cooperation agreement with the United States.

(lp) Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian said this week that the dispute over the Philippines’ exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea is not too important to undermine bilateral relations between these countries. Moreover, Chinese President Xi Jinping celebrated the 46th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and the Philippines, all while ignoring the latter’s diplomatic protests with Chinese ships on Philippine territory. In turn, President Rodrigo Duterte did not mention the territorial dispute, but rather celebrated, hoped for long-lasting diplomatic ties with China. [ABS-CBN] [Philippine Star 1]

Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture (DA) claimed that the increased presence of Bureaus of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) operatives in the South China Sea boosted the confidence of Filipinos to catch fish in the area. Moreover, the Chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) visited Pagasa Island, which is eyed to convert into a logistics hub for their forces deployed in the area, to assert the Philippines’ claims over the territory. Furthermore, the alliance of activist fisherfolk groups PAMALAKAYA held a protest in front of the Chinese Embassy to denounce China’s incursion into Philippine territory. [Philippine News Agency] [Reuters] [SupChina]

Besides a bill to identify the Philippines’ maritime zones, some Filipino officials are pushing for increased strength of the AFP maritime forces, preservation of coral reefs, protection of the deep sea. [South China Morning Post] [Philippine Star 2] [Rappler] [Manila Bulletin 1]

During a recent assembly, the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China vowed to avoid activities that could escalate tension in the contested South China Sea. Meanwhile, Duterte extended the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US for six more months so that he can review it more closely. He had previously demanded the US to explain their inaction in the 2012 Panatag standoff, when China took islands from the Philippines, before discussing the VFA. [Manila Standard] [Manila Bulletin 2] [Radio Free Asia]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

16 June 2021 @ 11:00 - 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Open Society Foundations, USA

50 Years of the Failed Drug War and its Consequences in Latin America: A Conversation with Former President of Mexico Ernesto Zedillo. 

This event will feature a conversation between former Mexican President Zedillo and Open Society’s Global Drug Policy Program director Kasia Malinowska about the United States’ 50-year war on drugs, its disastrous effects in Mexico and Latin America, and the untold social, economic, and political damage it has caused in both consuming and producing nations.

For more information, see [Open Society Foundations].

17 June 2021 @ 10:30 - 11:30 am (GMT-4), Open Society Foundations, USA

Sermon Series: 50th Anniversary of the War on Drugs 

June 17, 2021, will mark 50 years since U.S. President Richard Nixon declared drugs to be “public enemy number one,” launching a national campaign to criminalize drug use. This online event will expose the fallouts of the War on drugs policies including mass incarceration, civil liberties abuses, over-policing and mistreatment of people of color, and human rights violations in the United States and around the world. 

Further event details are provided at [Open Society Foundations].

        17 June 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT+2), Institut Montaigne, Switzerland                 

Green Deal: A Paradigm Shift for Our Economic Model? 

This webinar takes a closer look at the EU’s Green Deal, considering the union’s current path of economic development, the deal’s implications for social cohesion, cooperation and conflict between member states, the role of France and Germany in the transformation, and if the deal leads to a paradigm shift or if it rather still faces significant obstacles.  

For more information, visit [Institut Montaigne].

17 June 2021 @ 12:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Hudson Institute, USA 

A Discussion on Innovation Policy and Patents 

This expert panel will look at reliable and effective patents as drivers of innovation and economic growth, considering the role of patents in creating new products and services and the impact of intellectual property waivers on innovation and economic growth. 

Please see [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

     17 June 2021 @ 5:30 p.m. (GMT+5.30), Centre for Policy Research, India                

One year after Galwan: The road ahead for Sino India Relations 

One year after Indian and Chinese soldiers lost their lives in a clash in the Galwan Valley as part of the border crisis, this panel discussion evaluates the conflict from an Indian perspective: What are the diplomatic, military, political and economic choices before India? Where does the road from Galwan lead to for Sino-Indian relations?

Please see [CPR] if you wish to learn more about the event. 

17 June 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy               

Israel: Which Implications for the Post-Netanyahu Era? 

With Israel’s parliament recently approving a new coalition government led by Naftali Bennett, an era in Israeli politics is coming to an end. This event therefore seeks to analyse: Will the new fragmented coalition be able to lead the country for the next four years? How will the government face pressing issues including appeasement between different Israeli communities and the diplomatic stance towards Palestinians and the region as a whole? 

For more information, please visit [ISPI].

17 June 2021 @ 3:00 a.m. (GMT+2), European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany            

Trapped in an age of economic coercion – How can the EU effectively navigate it? 

As geopolitics and economics are increasingly intertwined and as export controls and sanctions are becoming the new military interventions and arms races, this webinar discusses the EU’s stance in and chances of effectively navigating this age of economic coercion. The event will also consider the roles played by the United States and China. 

If you wish to learn more about the event and for mandatory registration, please visit [ECFR].

17/18 June 2021 @ 11:30 a.m. (GMT+2), Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law, Germany              

The Individual in International Law

In this virtual workshop, participants are encouraged to actively discuss the draft papers of the book project The Individual in International Law – History and Theory, focussing in particular on the history of law, history of ideas, jurisprudence and legal theory, as well as critical approaches to international law. 

If you are interested in joining the discussion, please visit [MPIL] for more information and how to register. 

18 June 2021 @ 9:30 a.m. (GMT+2), European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany          

What is feminist diplomacy in action? 

In the lead-up to the Generation Equality Forum held at the end of June and organized by UN Women, this event will explore the meaning and role of feminist diplomacy in today’s world of great power competition, its chances, and the steps that remain to be taken in order for it to become a mainstream approach. The event invites some of the lead figures in feminist foreign policy, including Swedish Ambassador for Gender Equality and former diplomat Ann Bernes.  

For more information, please visit [ECFR].

18 June 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), National Endowment for Democracy, United States           

Report Launch | A full-spectrum response to sharp power: the vulnerabilities and strengths of open societies 

As globalization has led to increased intertwinement of democracies and autocracies, the comprising effects of the sharp power of autocratic regimes have become apparent across an array of sectors in open societies, including the media, the knowledge sector, technologies, and commerce. This discussion and report launch will take a look at the concerted action that democracies might take to counter those tendencies. 

If you wish to learn more about the event and for mandatory registration, please visit [NED].

18 June 2021 @ 9:30 - 10:30 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore 

Southeast Asia, the United States and China: Stumbling into the New World Order 

This talk examines the impact of political, social and economic instability in the US on Washington’s ability to manage and fulfill its various security obligations in the Asia Pacific region

If you wish to join the event, you can register here: [ISEAS]

        21 June 2021 @ 5:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Egmont Institute, Belgium             

The Refugee Convention at 70: Lessons and Perspectives in a changing world 

The 1961 UN Refugee Convention and its subsequent 1967 Protocol are still at the core of today’s refugee protection system, but the rights set out in the Convention are simultaneously often breached by contracting states. Against this backdrop, the Convention’s anniversary calls for a re-evaluation of the tools included, the UNHCR’s role in protecting refugees, the situation of refugees in Belgium, and the Belgian position in the EU debate. 

Details are accessible under [Egmont Institute].

21 June 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. (GMT+9), Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan 

The World View of China in Competition with the New U.S. Administration 

As part of a broader project that analyses China’s politics, economy, society, diplomacy, and security through the lens of Japanese experts, this first public forum invites experts to discuss why China is taking an assertive stance against the US and the world view that might be informing China’s posture. Registration by 18 June is required. 

If you are interested in participating in the event, please visit [SPF].

21 June 2021 @ 3:30 p.m. (GMT+2), The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden              

Presidential elections in Iran in the shadow of sanctions and political legitimacy deficit 

In the aftermath of the 18 June Iranian presidential elections, this event invites two eminent Iran experts to unpack what the elections and their results could entail for the future of Iran. Registration is required. 

If you are interested in joining the event, please visit [UI].

21 June 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), CATO Institute, USA

Can International Rules Improve Domestic Regulation of Digital Trade? 

National debates over policies that affect the flow of digital information are heating up as censorship, surveillance, control over personal data, and requirements to store data locally have emerged as contentious political issues. At the same time, governments are negotiating international agreements that constrain their ability to regulate domestically. What exactly are the problems that have been caused by domestic regulation of the flow of digital information? And can international agreements help solve them? Find answers to these question at this webinar.

For more information, see [CATO].

22 June 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Hoover Institution, USA

Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter 

These seminars will feature applications of natural language processing, structured human readings, and machine learning methods to text as data to examine policy issues in economics, history, national security, political science, and other fields.

Please register here: [Hoover]

22 June 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 pm (GMT-4), Pacific Council on International Policy, USA

U.S. STRATEGY ON THE MIDDLE EAST WITH CHUCK HAGEL AND BARBARA SLAVIN 

U.S. strategy on Iran and the greater Middle East is evolving in 2021 under new leadership in Washington and a new administration coming soon in Tehran. With the ongoing efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Iran nuclear deal) on the one hand and Iran’s presidential elections slated for June 18 on the other, can we expect significant changes in U.S.-Iran relations? 

For more information, see [PCIP].

22/23 June 2021 (GMT+2), Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy               

People, Planet & Prosperity Global Policy Forum 

Inviting several high-level politicians and experts in international cooperation, this two-day program covers a wide range of topics related to global cooperation, including but not limited to global health, migration, sustainable development, social cohesion and development, as well as finance and trade. 

Details and registration are accessible under [ISPI]. 

22 June 2021 @ 4:30 p.m. (GMT+2), European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany            

Resisting Economic Coercion – What Europe can do to strengthen itself 

This is the second webinar in the mini-series on the global use of economic coercion and will launch a new policy brief which introduces concrete proposals for EU policymakers regarding countermeasures and deterrence under an anti-coercion instrument that the European Commission is set to propose in Octobre 2021. 

Please visit [ECFR] for more information. 

23 June 2021 @ 9:30 a.m. (GMT+2), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Sweden              

Trick and Treat: Firearms diversion through fraud in the European Union 

This event will focus on the diversion of firearms from the legal into the illegal markets through fraudulent mechanisms, an oftentimes overlooked topic in empirical research. After presenting the main findings of a recent project on firearms fraud, European firearms experts will reflect on the findings from a policy, law enforcement, and research perspective. 

For more information, please see [SIPRI].

23 June 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Bruegel, Belgium               

How to spend it? A closer look at the recovery plans 

As part of the Covid-19 pandemic recovery efforts, the EU has implemented its Next Generation EU instrument with the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) as its largest component. The RRF supports member states in their efforts on reform and public investment projects and most states have submitted their national plans already. Before the EU Commission hands out its evaluations, this event takes a closer look at the plans, asking how countries plan to spend and if they plan to spend sustainably. 

Please visit [Bruegel] for more information. 

23 June 2021 @ 9:00 am (GMT-4) Hoover Institution, USA

Mexico: How to Advance Security, Promote Prosperity, and Foster Cooperation in our Western Hemisphere Neighborhood

This event will discuss opportunities to promote peace and prosperity as well as prevailing foreign perceptions of the United States in the Western Hemisphere and beyond. 

Please register here: [Hoover]

24 June 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:00 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore 

Climate Action in the United States and Implications for Southeast Asia 

This webinar will consider the Biden administration’s policy direction on climate change in the lead-up to the UN Climate Conference in November 2021 and provide a forum for discussion about how Southeast Asia might respond.

Find more about the event at [ISEAS].

24 June, 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:00 pm (GMT-4), Nikkei Asia, New York/USA 

China #1? Will the Middle Kingdom replace the U.S. as the world's leading super power?

As China's Communist Party celebrates its 100th anniversary, and Beijing under Xi Jinping seems increasingly ascendant, this webinar asks a critical question: does China have what it takes to surpass the U.S. as the world’s preeminent leader, or are there structural and systemic flaws within – from its population growth to its governance model – which limit its ability to do so? 

Further information are available at [Nikkei Asia]. 

25 June 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT+9), Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan                

Ecology Note – From Critical Thinking to Critical Action 

In cooperation with UNEP on Environmental Technologies, this webinar evaluates the effects and the lessons learned from the educational material Ecology Note distributed in Asian partner countries to foster environmental education. The presentation and discussion analyse how environmental education can be designed, how it can be implemented through an active learning approach, and how international cooperation as well as international best practice can contribute to meaningful learning. 

Please see [IGES] for more information. 

Recent book releases 

Elliot Ackerman, 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, Penguin Press, 320 pages,  March 9, 2021, reviewed in [Asian Review Book].

Jonathan Rauch, The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth, Brookings Institution Press, 280 pages, June 22, 2021, with a review in [New York Times]. 

Calls

Vernon Press invites to submit papers for its edited volume "Living the Independence Dream: Ukraine and Ukrainians in Contemporary Socio-Political Context". Closing date for submission is July 15, 2021. For more information, see [vernonpress]

Violence: An international journal is launching a call for papers on the theme “Mediation in the process of exiting political violence”. Closing date for submission is September 30, 2021. For more information, see [FMSH]. 

Jobs & positions

The United Nations is hiring a “Principal Legal Officer” at its Office of Legal Affairs in New York. Closing date for applications is July 28, 2021. For more details, see [UN Careers].

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is offering a position of “Senior Human Resources Officer”. Deadline for applications is July 28, 2021. Further information are available at [UN Careers].

The United Nations Department of Political Affairs and Peace-building is seeking a “Political Affairs Officer” responsible for the following duties: Conducting extensive research and analysis for the Repertoire of the Practice of the Security Council; drafting, reviewing, editing and revising and contributing to the drafting of Supplements of the Repertoire of the Practice of the Security Council and its case studies, etc. Closing date for applications is July 28, 2021. If you want to know more about the vacancy, see [UN Careers].

The International Organization for Migration is recruiting a Project Assistant - Migration Mainstreaming, General Service to provide an administrative and logistical support to the implementation of project activities. Applications can be submitted until June 24, 2021. For more details, see [IOM].

The Asian Development Bank invites to submit applications for the position of “Senior Human Resource Assistant” who will provide administrative and technical support in the BPRS to ensure the quality of HR services delivery for ADB staff that include onboarding, off-boarding, transfers, and other HR related processes. Closing date for application is June 15, 2021. For further information detail, see [ADB].

The United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Republic is hiring an “Investigations Assistant”. Deadline for applications is June 18, 2021.  See [UN Careers] for more information. 

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