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Prediction Markets Race for New Users; Brad Reese Sits Down With MrBeast; VW Dealers Revolt Over DTC Scout
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Welcome back. Today, a struggle is underway to define a new product category—and I don’t mean AI.
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Twenty-three-year-old prediction markets influencer Gigi Alcaraz, part of Kalshi’s ambitious plans to win over women and expand further beyond sports wagers. Amy Lombard for WSJ
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Prediction markets are rushing to expand their customer base with marketing aimed at college students and young women. But negative PR, including around losses among young people, simultaneously threatens to put new limits on their growth.
Kalshi last fall announced a nationwide push to sponsor campus clubs, for example, calling college campuses a key to “bringing the next 100M users to prediction markets.” Rival Polymarket has offered to pay fraternities to sign up users, money that can be spent on throwing “epic parties.” One frat raised $30,510 over two weeks.
In addition to new users, The Wall Street Journal reports, results include:
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Students are losing hundreds of dollars on false rumors. The National Collegiate Athletic Association is raising alarms about betting on college games, and a student athletic department employee was fired for betting on Kalshi. Meanwhile, student groups are hosting parties with Polymarket-branded beer pong sets.
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In a separate piece over the weekend, The Journal described Kalshi’s efforts to reach more women. The company is featuring women in ads, paying them to post on social media about their prediction-market bets and hosting in-person events like an upcoming “Bachelorette” watch party.
Here’s part of the pitch for and by women, according to Hannah Erin Lang and Oyin Adedoyin’s report:
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Aggie Rozite also has been paid by Kalshi to post on social media. She cites a simple reason for wanting to get more women into prediction markets.
“The whole premise [of prediction markets] is the wisdom of the crowd,” said Rozite, who lives in New York and runs the account @KalshiGirls on X. “You can’t have only half the population giving wisdom.”
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Great point, except for critics who say the product isn’t wisdom, but betting.
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Stella Case, a 19-year-old student in Massachusetts, said she was surprised when members of her college investing club—who are mostly male—said they have tried prediction markets.
“I don’t think you’re investing in a real asset, you’re investing in an outcome,” said Case, who prefers traditional investments like stocks and exchange-traded funds. “It doesn’t really speak to my risk profile.”
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Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
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Qualcomm CMO on Brand-Building, AI, and the Power of Partnerships
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In an interview, Qualcomm EVP and CMO Don McGuire discusses building brand resonance at scale through strategic partnerships, AI workflows, and a passion-led approach to marketing. Read More
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Brad Reese tries a Feastables peanut butter cup in a YouTube video with MrBeast. MrBeast/YouTube
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The WSJ Leadership Institute’s Katie Deighton writes for the newsletter:
Brad Reese, the opinionated grandson of the Reese’s founder whom I profiled last month, continues on his mission to raise hell for Hershey after previously alleging that it has begun dropping milk chocolate and peanut butter for cheaper ingredients in some products.
Yesterday the 70-year-old LinkedIn devotee appeared in a Shorts video on MrBeast’s YouTube channel, dressed in his usual Reese’s merch but enthusiastically trying the creator’s own Feastables peanut butter cups.
The video, which like much of MrBeast’s content blurs the line between ad and entertainment, racked up more than 3 million views in less than 24 hours.
MrBeast, it’s worth remembering, is the one who turned the once-obscure Reese into a headline by amplifying one of his LinkedIn posts on X. Hershey for its part has defended its products while trying not to give Reese any more oxygen.
What’s uncertain is how much restraint the company will afford to Reese now that he’s crossed over into promoting another candy company.
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Christopher Otts/WSJ
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Volkswagen dealers are suing the automaker over its plans to sell the new SUV from its Scout Motors brand directly to consumers, citing laws that cement dealers’ place in car sales, Christopher Otts writes in The Journal. But the related marketing questions look knottier to me.
Scout believes that direct sales give customers a better experience and provide the company with more insights.
“You can be dramatically more efficient with every single car that you make and exactly where that car goes,” Scout CEO Scott Keogh said.
Dealers argue that they’re essential for keeping customers happy after they drive off the lot. “Selling the car is the easy part,” said VW dealer Fred Ippolito. “It’s maintaining the customer for the next 10 years and servicing them and taking care of them—that’s where the difficulty comes in, and the manufacturer is just not equipped to do that.”
Scout plans to address that by opening 100 company-owned showrooms and service centers in the U.S. and Canada—with enough service techs that they say customers will never have trouble having their cars looked at.
Executives suggest dealers are overrating their place in consumers’ hearts.
“We have heard over and over again, ‘Please give me an alternative,’” said Cody Thacker, Scout’s vice president of commercial operations. “You see that there is very little trust in auto dealers today.”
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“There are leaders who are—especially in B-to-B—really strong demand-gen oriented CMOs. There are leaders who are very brand-oriented CMOs. There are people that are very product-oriented CMOs. When you’re talking about someone who comes up through a demand-gen [background]… it’s much harder for that leader to [have] the full view, whereas if you come up through the brand realm, it’s much easier to adopt a broader mindset around brand as your most valuable asset.”
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— Kimberly Storin, CMO of Zoom, speaking on a panel Friday at The Conference Board’s Corporate Communications & Brand Summit in Brooklyn about the advantages and disadvantages of combining the chief marketing and communications roles into one person
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The community where marketing leaders drop the corporate speak and share what’s actually happening. The WSJ CMO Council unites leaders from the world’s most influential brands including Adobe, Audi, Google, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Meta, Taco Bell, P&G and Verizon.
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The Justice Department and Live Nation have reached a settlement that resolves the government’s monopolization lawsuit against the company, sparing the concerts-and-ticketing giant from the threat of its business being broken up. [WSJ]
President Trump has fallen in love with the shoe brand Florsheim, to the point that he’s buying pairs for White House visitors. “All the boys have them,” said a female White House official. Another joked, “It’s hysterical because everybody’s afraid not to wear them.” [WSJ]
Burger King’s social-media managers had been cooking up stunts to make their president a sensation well before McDonald’s gave them an opening. [WSJ]
Hims & Hers struck a deal with Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk to end their feud and sell weight-loss drugs together. [Bloomberg]
Airlines are reducing or eliminating loyalty miles awarded for flying basic economy. [Washington Post]
Disney and Pixar’s “Hoppers” opened to an estimated $88 million worldwide this weekend, the biggest debut for an original animated movie since 2017, but still below Pixar’s hits of the past. [WSJ]
Gen Z mall rats are providing a bright spot in a business that never really won over millennials. [WSJ]
Kofi Amoo-Gottfried is leaving DoorDash after seven years as CMO. [Adweek]
No, entry-level finance workers don’t really wear Loro Piana suits, Hermès ties and Bvlgari watches. [WSJ]
Netflix ended its partnership with Meghan Markle’s lifestyle brand “As Ever.” [NYP]
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