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December 8, 2020 - Brief Issue 128

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee to Meet Thursday; Covid-19 Vaccine Could Be Administered in the U.S. As Soon As Friday But Some Say Rollout Timeline Is Unrealistic; Trump Administration Officials Passed on Buying Additional Doses of Pfizer Vaccine, Now Pfizer Can’t Supply More Doses Until June or July (Health & Science)

Text Messaging System For Tracking Covid-19 Vaccine Side Effects May Be Vulnerable to Manipulation (Health & Science)

Los Angeles Schools to Close Beginning Thursday as California Stay-at-Home Orders Take Effect; New York Schools Navigate Reopening (Health & Science)

Britain Begins Covid-19 Vaccination Program (Around the World)

Europe Could be Beating Second Wave (Around the World)

Governor of São Paulo Says Vaccine Will Be Mandatory, President Bolsonaro Says No (Around the World)

Australia Extends Ban on Leaving the Country (Around the World) 

South Korea Will Buy Vaccine Doses, Vaccinate People Eventually (Around the World)

Biden Transition Watch: Jeff Zients Tapped as Covid-19 Coordinator; Vivek Murphy for Surgeon General; Rochelle Walensky for CDC Director; Xavier Becerra for HHS Head, Would Be the First Latino to Hold the Position (U.S. Government & Politics)

Millions Unemployed and Behind on Rent as Holidays Approach (U.S. Economy)

Dow Jones Falls as Coronavirus Cases Surge (U.S. Economy)

Anti-Vaccine Advocates Rebranding as Advocates of Medical Freedom (U.S. Society)

New Data Quantifies Learning Losses for U.S. Students (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 14,954,331 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 283,743 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 5,714,557 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 209,934,174 tests. Worldwide, there have been 67,650,207 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,545,723 deaths. At least 43,569,234 people have recovered from the virus.

FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee to Meet Thursday; Covid-19 Vaccine Could Be Administered in the U.S. As Soon As Friday But Some Say Rollout Timeline Is Unrealistic; Trump Administration Officials Passed on Buying Additional Doses of Pfizer Vaccine, Now Pfizer Can’t Supply More Doses Until June or July

If all goes as expected, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could grant emergency authorization to the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine as early as Friday of this week. On Tuesday, the FDA and Pfizer will release documents containing details about the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, along with the agency’s initial assessment. An all-day advisory committee meeting, which will include time for public comments, will take place on Thursday to discuss in detail the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. James Hildreth, a member of the FDA advisory committee, said that the FDA could decide to issue an emergency use authorization shortly thereafter and that vaccines could start being administered as soon as Friday. Leaders of Operation Warp Speed have said that they are prepared to vaccinate 20 million people this month, which would account for most of the long-term care residents and health care workers who are slated to receive the vaccine first (WaPo, The Hill)

However, hospitals and health officials aren’t as certain that rollout of the critical vaccine can be done that quickly. Many health care systems, even in large metropolitan areas, do not have final information about how many vaccines they will receive and when. Smaller facilities face logistical challenges with receiving and storing the vaccine, which must be kept at minus 70 degrees Celsius in ultra-cold freezers. Administrators have expressed frustration with the lack of details about the distribution of the yet-to-be-approved vaccine. Hildreth said that the U.S. Army will be charged with finalizing a distribution infrastructure upon vaccine approval, something the military does “very well” (STAT, The Hill).

Even as hospitals grapple with the uncertainty of a fast-paced rollout of a vaccine that still awaits FDA authorization, they are hurrying to finalize prioritization plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has officially recommended vaccinating health care workers and long-term care residents first, but even the planned 20 million vaccine doses to be distributed this month will fall slightly short of reaching all of these individuals. About 21 million health care workers and three million long-term care residents live in the United States. Some hospitals plan to use a lottery system to decide which of these individuals will receive the vaccine first. Others will prioritize those with the most contact with Covid-19 patients (WSJ).

Even though additional doses are badly needed, Pfizer has notified the Trump administration that it will not be able to supply additional Covid-19 vaccines until late June or July because other countries have purchased most of its supply (WaPo). This could mean a delay in the United States’ ambitious goal of vaccinating most Americans by late spring or early summer. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, who oversees logistics for Operation Warp Speed, said he was not concerned, saying several other vaccines would be available by that time. Some other officials said supplies from other companies may be insufficient, however.

Earlier this year, Pfizer advised Operation Warp Speed officials to purchase 200 million doses of the vaccine, enough to vaccinate 100 million people (NYT). Officials purchased only 100 million, saying they could not justify purchasing so many doses prior to FDA authorization (AP). Moderna’s vaccine is next in line to receive emergency approval and Dr. Moncef Slaoui, chief science adviser to Operation Warp Speed, said that the U.S. government planned to purchase vaccines from many manufacturers, including Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, both of which could begin supplying vaccines to the U.S. as early as February. According to the New York Times, President Trump is planning on Tuesday “to issue an executive order that proclaims that other nations will not get the U.S. supplies of its vaccine until Americans have been inoculated. But the order appears to have no real teeth and does not expand the U.S. supply of doses, according to a description of the order on Monday by senior administration officials.” Bonus Read: “What You Need to Know About the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca Vaccines,” (WaPo)

Text Messaging System For Tracking Covid-19 Vaccine Side Effects May Be Vulnerable to Manipulation

When a Covid-19 vaccine is rolled out, one essential task for health officials will be to monitor and respond to reports of side effects. Even very large clinical trials cannot capture all possible reactions to a new vaccine, so continued monitoring is essential for ensuring safety for all recipients. In order to keep up with side effect reporting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is employing a new text messaging system known as v-safe. Using the program, vaccine recipients can report any side effects, potentially alerting officials early to any adverse reactions.

However, some technology experts have said the system may be vulnerable to attack by hackers or anti-vaccine advocates who could file false reports, possibly fueling vaccine hesitancy among the general population or making it difficult for officials to follow up with legitimate claims. The self-reporting system will send text messages to users asking them if they have experienced symptoms or had difficulty completing tasks in the days and weeks following vaccination. According to the CDC, v-safe is in the final stages of testing, including testing for security. The system will be used in conjunction with multiple vaccine monitoring systems, including the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS), which has been in use for thirty years (WaPo).

Los Angeles Schools to Close Beginning Thursday as California Stay-at-Home Orders Take Effect; New York Schools Navigate Reopening

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said on Monday that he told California officials that they “really [didn’t] have any choice” in their move to impose stay-at-home orders on much of the state. According to a directive by California Governor Gavin Newsom, stay-at-home orders are to go into effect in a region when ICU capacity drops below 15%, a threshold which two of the five regions currently meet. The plan has been met with anger from some, particularly restaurant owners who have struggled throughout the pandemic. According to Newsom, the plan is meant to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, an increasingly common scenario around the country (Politico). Fauci said that California officials consulted with him before moving ahead with the orders, asking if he agreed that the orders were necessary.“When you have a challenge to the health care system, you’ve got to do something like that,” he told officials. 

In light of the renewed Covid-19 surges and stay-at-home orders around the state, schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District will close for in-person learning starting on Thursday. Some are worried about the impact on students, particularly younger students and those with special needs, who often struggle the most with online learning. Superintendent Austin Beutner acknowledged the difficulty of the decision but said that “right now [coronavirus] is at extraordinary and quite dangerous levels” (LA Times).

Meanwhile, New York City is navigating school reopening in the face of rising case numbers. Some public schools in the city opened Monday, just three weeks after a full shutdown of schools. Mayor Bill de Blasio has made keeping schools open a top priority, revising the regulations that closed schools in the first place. Previously, a school shutdown would have been triggered if the city’s test positivity rate rose above 3%, an event which led to the earlier shutdown. Emerging evidence, however, suggests that schools are relatively low-risk for viral spread, and experts are beginning to advocate more for prioritizing in-person learning. Under the new city guidelines, schools will conduct weekly Covid-19 tests. Two cases in different parts of a school building, without a clear link, would cause that individual school to close. It is hoped that the approach will prevent the virus from spreading in schools and that, even though individual schools may close, most students will be able to attend classes in person for a larger portion of the school year (NYT). 

Scandals Involving AstraZeneca Partner Kangtai May Undermine Covid-19 Vaccine Confidence in China

The Chinese drug company Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products and its CEO, Du Weimin, have been the subject of vaccine scandal for the past several years. In 2016, a government official was jailed for accepting a bribe from Mr. Du to greenlight clinical trials for two of the company’s vaccines. Now, Kangtai, which currently produces a quarter of the world’s vaccines, is set to be the exclusive producer of the vaccine made by AstraZeneca for mainland China (NYT).

Drug companies in China have been beset by scandal for years, with hundreds of officials accused of taking bribes from vaccine companies. Oversight of vaccine development and production has historically been weak, and regulators have often not been transparent. As a result, some citizens are distrustful of Chinese-made vaccines, with many wealthier parents preferring to have their children vaccinated with equivalent, Western-made vaccines. Dr. Ray Yip, former head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in China, said he considers Kangtai to be one of the top vaccine companies in the country. AstraZeneca said in a statement that it “conducts appropriate and thorough due diligence prior to entering an agreement with any entity.” 

Bonus Reads: “Covid-19 Vaccine Safety and the Public Trust: Lessons from Paul Meier and Polio,” (STAT); “Exposed to Covid-19 During the Holidays? Here Are Safe Tests and Practices,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Europe

Britain Begins Covid-19 Vaccination Program

Britain kicked off its inoculation campaign today, becoming the first nation to do so using a fully tested vaccine and starting off a global effort to fight Covid-19. Doctors, nurses, certain people over 80, and nursing home workers will be among the first to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (NYT). Early Tuesday morning, Margaret Keenan, 90, a former jewelry shop assistant, became the first person anywhere in the world to receive a clinically authorized, fully tested coronavirus vaccine. “I feel so privileged to be the first person vaccinated against Covid-19,” Ms. Keenan said after receiving the shot at a hospital in Coventry (AP). “It means I can finally look forward to spending time with my family and friends in the New Year after being on my own for most of the year.” Health workers began administering the vaccine six days after British regulators granted approval. Britain received 800,000 doses of the vaccine in the first shipment that were distributed to 50 hospitals around the country. British Health Minister Matt Hancock said he expects millions of people in the country to receive a vaccine by Christmas (Reuters).

Europe Could be Beating Second Wave

As both infection rates and death rates climbed throughout the autumn, officials across Europe warned that the holidays would look different this year unless people accepted new restrictions in time to get the coronavirus under control. It seems as though those restrictions are finally working, as Europe’s seven-day average of newly confirmed cases is trending downward. After implementing a strict lockdown and closing nonessential businesses, France has brought daily new cases from about 50,000 a day to roughly 10,000 (WaPo). A month ago, Belgium had the worst infection rate in Europe, with experts warning of the potential collapse of the nation’s health-care infrastructure. Now, it has the fifth lowest infection rate on the continent and plans in place to start distributing vaccines in the first week of January (Brussels Times, Politico). On Friday, the Italian government announced an easing of restrictions in parts of the country, as coronavirus incidence rates dropped for the second consecutive week (WaPo). But the situation remains tense in Germany, where after standing out as a covid success story for much of the year, “Germany now has higher per capita infection rates than any of the five biggest countries in Europe besides Italy” (WaPo). Bonus Read: “Bergamo’s Pandemic Survivors Carry Scars Unseen and Incalculable,” (NYT).

Americas

Governor of São Paulo Says Vaccine Will Be Mandatory, President Bolsonaro Says No

Governor João Doria told reporters that getting vaccinated against the coronavirus will be mandatory in Brazil’s most populous state. “I’ve guaranteed that the 45 million Brazilians here in São Paulo will be vaccinated, and the vaccine will be obligatory,” Gov. João Doria told reporters (WaPo). “We will take legal measures if there are any setbacks in this regard.” As countries around the world race to approve the vaccine and firm up distribution plans, the question of whether or not the vaccine should be made mandatory is becoming more critical. Gov. Doria and President Jair Bolsonaro are now locked in a political battle over this very question, where individual rights go up against social responsibility. Doria said he plans to begin vaccinating people in the state as soon as January but Bolsonaro has said that the vaccine will not be made mandatory. Bolsonaro has taken a cavalier attitude with the pandemic from the beginning, calling it a “little flu” and urging people to ignore lockdown restrictions and get on with their lives. But Bolsonaro’s opinion is at odds with legislation he signed earlier this year that would make the vaccine mandatory. “If you read the 2020 law, it’s clear,” said Bruno Santos Cunha, a municipal attorney in the northeast city of Recife, where he specializes in civil liberties law. “State governments, and even city governments, they have the power to introduce mandatory vaccinations. It was adopted during the covid crisis, and Bolsonaro signed it.” Enforcement of the law is another issue, however, and how the disagreement between Doria and Bolsonaro will play out remains to be seen.

Asia and Australia

Australia Extends Ban on Leaving the Country

Australia is extending its ban on international cruise ships and Australians leaving the country except under exceptional circumstances for another three months (AP). Announced Tuesday, the extension means that the human biosecurity emergency declaration will last for another year in spite of a decline in Covid-19 cases. Australia has imposed some of the strictest border closures in the world, requiring citizens and permanent residents to apply for a permit and prove exceptional circumstances in order to leave the country. 

South Korea Will Buy Vaccine Doses, Vaccinate People Eventually

South Korea said on Tuesday that it had signed deals to receive enough coronavirus vaccines to inoculate 44 million people next year but also said it was in no hurry to do so and would wait to allow more time to observe potential side effects (Reuters). The South Korean government has arranged to buy 20 million doses each from AstraZeneca Plc, Pfizer Inc, and Moderna Inc, and another four million doses from Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen, enough to cover up to 34 million people, Health Minister Park Neung-hoo told reporters at a briefing. Additional doses for 10 million people will be procured through the World Health Organization’s vaccine project, COVAX. Park said: “We don’t see the need to hurriedly begin vaccination without ensuring that the vaccines’ risks have been verified,” but he did add: “We had initially planned to secure vaccines for 30 million people but decided to purchase more, as there is uncertainty over the success of the vaccine candidates and the competition is intense among countries for early purchases.” 

China’s Trade Surplus Up

China’s trade surplus reached a record in November, up 21% from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs report on Monday (WSJ). The resulting $75.42 billion trade surplus toppe the record set in May. The Wall Street Journal writes: “China’s exports have topped market expectations since the second quarter, when Beijing moved to restart the world’s second-largest economy after lockdowns and Covid-19 outbreaks at the start of the year. During the pandemic, protective gear and work-from-home tech products have served as pillars for China’s overseas trade, helping it gain global market share.”

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Transition Watch: Jeff Zients Tapped as Covid-19 Coordinator; Vivek Murphy for Surgeon General; Rochelle Walensky for CDC Director; Xavier Becerra for HHS Head, Would be the First Latino to Hold the Position

The prospective Biden team responsible for U.S. health policy and the coronavirus continues to fill in. On Monday, President Elect Biden tapped Jeff Zients, who co-chairs the transition team and was a former Obama administration official, to be his Covid-19 coordinator, and Vivek Murphy, former Surgeon General, to reprise his role in that position (Politico). Politico also notes, “Marcella Nunez-Smith, a co-chair of Biden’s Covid-19 advisory board, will also take a key role in the administration’s response, focused on health disparities.” On Sunday, Politico reported that “President-elect Joe Biden has selected Rochelle Walensky, the chief of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital, to run the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention” citing two sources (Politico). Walensy, who would replace Robert Redfield as CDC director, is also a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. Biden has also tapped California Attorney General Xavier Becerra to head the Department of Health and Human Services (Politico). Politico writes, “Becerra, 62, gained national recognition in recent years for overseeing California’s multitude of legal battles against President Donald Trump’s administration — as well as helming blue states’ defense against a GOP lawsuit aimed at eliminating Obamacare.” Becerra would be the first Latino to run the department. It is not clear what role the head of HHS would have in the pandemic response under the Biden administration. Politico notes, “The president-elect team’s focus on setting up a pandemic response team within the White House has raised questions about the role the health secretary will play in the Biden administration, according to four people familiar with the process, creating additional uncertainty around the Cabinet post.”

Hawley Urges Trump to Veto Covid Stimulus Without Checks

On Saturday, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) urged Trump to veto any Covid relief bill that does not include further checks for Americans in a phone call (Politico). Hawley told Politico, “I said, ‘I think it's vital that any relief include direct payments, and I'm not gonna vote for it if it doesn't.’ And I also urged him to veto any bill that did not have direct payments in it.” A spokesman for Trump refused to comment on Hawley’s call, but stated, “President Trump understands that Americans are hurting and need relief, which is why the White House continues to engage with those in congressional leadership who are serious about moving quickly to approve billions in aid.” The House Democratic proposal includes direct payments to Americans, but the Senate Republicans have not included them in their proposal.

Bonus Read: “Tighter Coronavirus Restrictions Would Save Thousands of Lives, but Elected Officials are Wary of Economic, Political Costs,” (WaPo). 

U.S. Economy

Millions Unemployed and Behind on Rent as Holidays Approach

As the holidays approach, millions of Americans are unemployed and/or behind on rent, according to a report in the Washington Post on Monday citing an analysis by Moody’s (WaPo). The Post writes, “Millions of Americans who lost their jobs during the pandemic have fallen thousands of dollars behind on rent and utility bills, a warning sign that people are running out of money for basic needs. Nearly 12 million renters will owe an average of $5,850 in back rent and utilities by January, Moody’s Analytics warns. Last month 9 million renters said they were behind on rent, according to a Census Bureau survey.” The impact is not equally borne. The Post notes: “The numbers were especially high for families with children, with 21 percent falling behind on rent, and among families of color. About 29 percent of Black families and 17 percent of Hispanic renters were behind, the Census Bureau reported.” Another analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found as the Post puts it, “1.3 million such households are now an average of $5,400 in debt on rent and utilities, after those people had lost jobs and their family’s income plunged.” Charlie Harak, a senior attorney with the National Consumer Law Center told the Post, “The tidal wave is coming. It’s going to be really horrible for people,” adding, “The number of people who are now 90 days behind and the dollars they are behind are growing quite significantly.” As we have covered in prior briefs, in the absence of government action, a number of protections supporting those struggling with rent will expire. The Post writes: “Many unemployed Americans were able to delay paying rent this fall under eviction moratoriums. But those protections end soon, and landlords and utilities are eager to get paid,because they have their own bills and taxes to pay. Economists warn low-income families won’t be able to suddenly pay back three to six months of rent at once. The federal eviction moratorium is slated to end on Dec. 31, even as coronavirus cases spike and the economic recovery fizzles. Researchers at the Philadelphia Fed say even their conservative forecast warns evictions will spike 50 percent higher next year.” Bonus Read: “‘It Makes Me Angry’: These Are the Jobless in a City Filled With Wealth,” (NYT).

Dow Jones Falls as Coronavirus Cases Surge 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on Monday amid news of surging coronavirus cases across the country (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The blue-chip index fell 125 points, or 0.4%, in midday trading. The S&P 500 ticked down less than 0.1%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%.” The average had previously hit a record high last week.

Small Hedge Funds Doing Well in Tough Times

Hedge funds have struggled this year, underperforming the market as a whole, but according to the Wall Street Journal some smaller funds are performing very well despite the impact of the coronavirus (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Funds with less than $1 billion in assets are benefiting from their more manageable portfolios. They can dart in and out of holdings to protect gains or minimize losses amid the market volatility that has characterized this year. They also get more bang for their buck—making investments that require less firepower to affect their overall performance.” The pandemic explains part of the reason larger funds are struggling. The Journal writes, “Many of these funds’ larger peers—including some of the industry’s best-known names—have lost money this year, caught off guard by sudden market swings resulting from the pandemic.”

U.S. Society

Anti-Vaccine Advocates Rebranding as Advocates of Medical Freedom

Opponents of vaccines are rebranding as advocates of medical freedom, and developing ties with religious and civil liberties organizations, according to a report in Politico on Saturday (Politico). Politico writes that “this emerging coalition, which draws from both ends of the political spectrum, is turning its attention to coronavirus vaccines — and any states or employers who might try to make getting the shots mandatory. These anti-vaccine activists are seeking to capitalize on resistance to existing public health measures along with concerns that the hunt for Covid-19 shots has been politicized.” According to a November Gallup poll, about 60% of Americans are currently willing to get a coronavirus vaccine. Jonathan Berman, a physiologist and author of a book on the movement, told Politico “The anti-vaccine movement has been going for years and years without a big audience, so the anti-mask thing, which has become very common now, suddenly gives the anti-vaccines an audience.” Stephanie Stock, a president of Ohio Advocates for Medical Freedom which opposes mandatory vaccination, told Politico, “With a lot of focus on Covid-19, we’re hoping to get something on protection on the Covid-19 vaccine specifically.”

New Data Quantifies Learning Losses for U.S. Students

New data from national, state and district sources are showing that students are falling behind academically, with the most vulnerable students experiencing the biggest losses. The Washington Post reports that a study to be released this week by McKinsey & Co found that white students were behind by one to three months in math, whereas students of color were behind by three to five months. The company predicts that losses will escalate as education continues to be disrupted for many students. Other testing agencies have reported similar findings, and data from individual school districts show an increase in failing grades, particularly among vulnerable students. Renaissance Learning released a recent report estimating that students in fifth and sixth grades would require an additional 12 weeks of instruction to catch up to beginning-of-year expectations.

Mirroring the trend are rates of applications for college admissions and federal student aid, down 16 percent. The dip was more pronounced in Hispanic and low-income students and for first-generation college students. Around the country, experts are considering how to catch students up. Some have suggested high-intensity tutoring over the summer, but these programs would cost tens of billions of dollars to reach all U.S. students at a time when many school districts are already struggling. Some policymakers have proposed protections from spending cuts to schools receiving federal coronavirus aid.

“Something out of the ordinary is needed to help these kids catch up,” said Emma Dorn, one of the authors of the McKinsey report. “No matter what we do now, tangible learning loss has already occurred.”

Bonus Reads: “Covid-19 Ushers in a New Era of Full-Time Travel,” (WSJ); “She Saved Her 7-Year-Old Brother’s Life. Then the Virus Threatened to Take It,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

The Washington Post looks at what to expect this “critical” week on the vaccine front (WaPo).

Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health, warns that dropping hospitalization rates are actually a bad sign suggesting the hospital system is being overrun (WaPo).

Elisabeth Rosenthal argues for a graphic public campaign showing the impact of the pandemic (NYT).

CNN looks at how people are keeping their relationships going during the pandemic (CNN).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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