Consumers' view of the economy slid further in April, a new survey showed, reflecting an anxious outlook as President Trump's new tariffs take hold. Consumer expectations fell to the lowest since October 2011 in the Conference Board survey.

Today will bring key readings on how the economy performed this year before Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April, with the first official estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter and personal income and spending data for March to be released. The March reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the personal-consumption expenditures price index—is also due today.

The Conference Board’s measure of consumer expectations sank to 54.4—well below the level of 80 that the research group says often signals a recession ahead. Consumers' assessment of the current economy also declined. This index sank to 86, below the 87.3 that analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast. Write-in responses showed "tariffs are now on top of consumers' minds," the Conference Board said. "Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy."

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• China’s Export Orders Plunge, Hit by Trump’s Trade War

A full briefcase of new U.S. data this week will show how trade tensions are starting to reshape the economy—without yet revealing the tariffs’ full impact. The days ahead bring updates on economic growth, personal income and spending, inflation and the labor market, set to reveal more of how people and businesses prepared for and responded to the first few weeks of the steep tariffs President Trump announced in April.

5 a.m.: EU Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP
7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Advance estimate GDP
9:45 a.m.: Chicago Business Barometer/ISM-Chicago Business Survey/Chicago PMI
10 a.m.: U.S. Pending Home Sales Index
10 a.m.: U.S. Personal Income and Outlays

5 a.m.: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting decision
7:30 a.m.: Challenger U.S. Job-Cut Report
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On U.S. Business Manufacturing PMI

President Trump thinks trade wars are easy to win for one simple reason. Other countries depend more on the U.S. than vice versa, and will therefore give the U.S. almost anything to preserve market access. Canada’s voters may have just poked a hole in that theory, writes WSJ's Greg Ip. On Monday they returned the Liberals to power under a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who promises, far from bending to Trump, to carve out a more independent path altogether from the U.S. It is a potentially costly and arduous path, but one Canadians appear willing to accept as the price of sovereignty.

The Chinese yuan is likely to weaken somewhat further on the back of President Trump’s tariffs, Commerzbank economist Tommy Wu says in a note. The U.S. and China might try to de-escalate trade tensions at some point, he says. However, trade talks “may not happen any time soon, nor will they result in any material outcomes quickly.” Tariffs could trim China’s gross domestic product by 2% or more over the next two years, he says. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has been setting weaker daily yuan fixings, suggesting it favors allowing a slow currency depreciation as part of monetary policy easing. Commerzbank expects the dollar to rise to 7.50 against the onshore yuan by June, from 7.2731 currently.

— Renae Dyer

• The U.S. trade deficit in goods grew 9.6% to $162 billion in March, according to advance data from the Census Bureau, up from $147.8 billion from February. Exports picked up in March from the prior month, but imports rose by much more. The number, if it holds when final trade data on goods and services for March is released May 6, would be a record.
• The number of job openings in the U.S. fell in March to a six-month low just as some of the Trump administration’s tariffs began to kick in, but the big question is what will happen in the coming months as the trade wars drag on. The answer is still unclear, but surveys show many businesses plan to freeze hiring until they get a better sense of how the economy is responding. New job postings dropped to 7.2 million in March from 7.5 million in the prior month, the government said. That’s the fewest openings since September and reflects low levels last seen at the tail end of the pandemic. (MarketWatch)
• The eurozone economy grew at a faster pace in the first three months of the year, aided by U.S. businesses building up stocks of imported goods in anticipation of higher tariffs. The bloc's economy expanded 0.4% on quarter in the three months to March, faster than the 0.2% pace of the final quarter of 2024, the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat said Wednesday.
• The French economy recovered only weakly at the start of a year that promises further pressure from trade tariffs. Gross domestic product increased by 0.1% in the three months through March, just reversing a contraction in the previous quarter, the French statistics authority said Wednesday.
• Australian inflation slowed in the first quarter of 2025, supporting the case for the country’s central bank to keep cutting interest rates next month. The consumer-price index rose 0.9% in the three months through March and by 2.4% compared with the same period a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
• A private gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity showed a slowdown in April, the same month that the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on China. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March, hitting its lowest level since January but marking a seventh straight month in expansion territory, Caixin Media Co. and S&P Global said Wednesday. (MarketWatch)

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to Hardika.Singh@wsj.com.