Last week, President Trump said he expects much lower interest rates once he can install a new Federal Reserve chair next May. However, growing opposition to a December rate cut inside the central bank suggests he might not get his way. Adding to the uncertainty on this front, New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that another rate reduction “in the near term” could be warranted, while Boston Fed President said Saturday that she sees no strong need for another interest-rate cut next month. The uncertainty means markets will be scrutinizing data and will look to the Fed’s Beige Book, or summary of current economic conditions, on Wednesday for clues. The federal government won’t release a standalone inflation report for October, which means that the Fed will have jobs and inflation data no more recent than September’s on hand when officials meet for the policy meeting in December. Overseas, the U.K.'s autumn budget, central-bank decisions in New Zealand and South Korea, India’s GDP release and Tokyo’s inflation print will be in focus.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is facing more internal resistance no matter what he chooses to do in December than to any other decision in his nearly eight-year tenure. That divide could persist well into next year, which means that simply changing the chair won’t guarantee more rate reductions.

Some Fed veterans worry that Trump, rather than accept that outcome, will take even more forceful steps to curb the central bank’s independence and secure lower rates.

The U.K. autumn budget on Wednesday will take center stage in the week ahead. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax rises to fix the public finances, but specific measures are unclear in the wake of a reported U-turn on income-tax hikes. In the U.S., uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision in December means markets will be scrutinizing data. It will be a shortened week with Thanksgiving on Thursday, meaning the bond and stock markets are closed that day and close early the following day. And in Asia-Pacific, central-bank decisions in New Zealand and South Korea will be front and center as the region continues to navigate tariff-related uncertainties and market volatility on AI-linked jitters. Markets will also closely watch for India’s GDP release for signs of whether domestic momentum remains solid enough to anchor growth expectations, while Tokyo’s inflation print will help investors gauge the Bank of Japan’s next steps.

8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
12 p.m.: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization annual revision

8:30 a.m.: PPI
8:30 a.m.: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
9 a.m.: U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9 a.m.: U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9 a.m.: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices
10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence Index
10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales Index

Corporate earnings calls have been filled with talk about a K-shaped economy, in which high-income consumers spend while low-income consumers pull back. But Truist economist Mike Skordeles doesn't see it that way. "K-shape gives a connotation that the low end spending is going down. It's not going down," Skordeles tells WSJ. Instead, there is a "two-speed" economy, in which low-income consumer spending is still rising, but at a much slower pace than high-income spending. "The low end is doing well, hanging in there, certainly resilient," Skordeles says, adding that nonmanagement wages are still rising at a faster pace than before the pandemic. —- Nicholas Miller

• After a drop in trade in September, flat sales seen by Canadian retailers last month point to cracks in the consumers’ resilience as the fallout from the trade war with the U.S. lingers.
• Confidence among German firms worsened in November, as businesses downgraded their previous optimism of a hoped-for economic boost from the government’s spending plans.
• Japan’s cabinet has approved $135 billion of stimulus to help households cope with rising living costs and boost economic growth, firing off the first fiscal salvo under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.