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December 2, 2020, Brief Issue 125

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.K. is First to Approve the BioNTech and Pfizer Vaccine; EU Aims to Approve First Covid-19 Vaccine by December 29 (Health & Science)

U.S. CDC Advisory Panel Recommends First Vaccines Go To Residents and Employees of Long-Term Care Facilities, CDC To Decide Today (Health & Science)

Hospitals Across the U.S. Experience Nursing Shortages as Almost 100,000 People Hospitalized with Coronavirus (Health & Science)

Dr. Slaoui: Covid-19 Vaccines Are Safe; Significant Side Effects Occur in 10-15% of Recipients (Health & Science)

Drop-off in U.S. Covid-19 Numbers Likely Artificial; Experts Warn of a ‘Horrible’ Winter (Health & Science)

Red Cross Chief Says Vaccine Misinformation is a ‘Parallel Pandemic’ (Health & Science)

Russia Suffers Worst Day in Terms of Death Toll, Tries to Import Drugs (Around the World)

European Study Finds Food Habits Changed Drastically During Lockdown (Around the World)

India Says It May Not Need to Vaccinate Entire Population (Around the World)

Japan Passes Law to Make Covid-19 Vaccines Free (Around the World)

Bipartisan U.S. Senate Group Pushes $908 Billion Stimulus (U.S. Government) 

U.S. Manufacturing Slowed in November Due to Coronavirus Surge (U.S. Economy) 

Thanksgiving Retail Down From Last Year in U.S. (U.S. Economy) 

Families Sue California, Alleging Lack of “Basic Educational Equality” In Remote Learning; Analysis of U.S. Test Scores Shows Educational Disadvantages for Black, Hispanic and Poor Students (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 13,725,917 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 270,669 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 5,226,581 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 194,157,032 tests. Worldwide, there have been 63,938,037 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,481,750 deaths. At least 41,091,281 people have recovered from the virus.

U.K. is First to Approve the BioNTech and Pfizer Vaccine; EU Aims to Approve First Covid-19 Vaccine by December 29

The U.K. has approved the BioNTech and Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, becoming the first country in the world to do so. British regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, says the vaccine is safe for distribution and that immunizations could start within days (BBC). The U.K. has already ordered 40 million doses, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. The first 800,000 doses are expected to arrive in the country in the coming days. The vaccine is the fastest ever to go from concept to distribution; it took only 10 months to go through the developmental steps that normally take 10 years. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted: "It's the protection of vaccines that will ultimately allow us to reclaim our lives and get the economy moving again." NHS Chief Executive, Sir Simon Stevens, said the health service was preparing for "the largest-scale vaccination campaign in our country's history." Around 50 hospitals are on standby to distribute the vaccine and temporary vaccination centers have been set up in preparation. The approval from Britain will not have an effect on the distribution of the hundreds of millions of doses that other countries have procured in prepaid contracts, but it does put pressure on EU countries and the United States to move more quickly in the approval process (NYT). 

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) said that it plans to convene by December 29 to decide whether to approve the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech (WSJ, AP). The anticipated date is later than some European countries had hoped as other wealthy Western nations aim for approval by Christmas. The EU has also received a vaccine approval request from Moderna and expects to make a decision on the vaccine as soon as January 12.

Although drug regulation agencies have all received the same data on similar timelines, the EMA requires cooperation from all 27 member states, somewhat slowing the decision making process. The European agency aims for a quick turnaround should a vaccine be approved, and BioNTech has said that the administration of the vaccine could begin in Europe by the end of the year.

Bonus read: "Interpol warns that Covid-19 vaccines could be targeted by criminals" (Reuters). 

U.S. CDC Advisory Panel Recommends First Vaccines Go To Residents and Employees of Long-Term Care Facilities, CDC Will Decide Today

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), an independent panel advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), voted Tuesday to recommend that Covid-19 vaccines first be given to residents and employees of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities (NYT). CDC director Robert Redfield will decide Wednesday whether to make this an official recommendation to states when vaccine distribution begins as soon as mid-December. Though states are allowed to make their own decisions about vaccine distribution, they have historically followed ACIP’s official recommendations. Approximately 39% of Covid-19 deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities, and caregivers in such facilities are also at risk.

Hospitals Across the U.S. Experience Nursing Shortages as Almost 100,000 People Hospitalized with Coronavirus Across the Country

Hospital officials across the U.S. are reporting severe staffing shortages, particularly of nurses (CIDRAP, AP). Even before the pandemic, there were approximately 100,000 open nursing positions, and the situation has only worsened, especially in intensive care units. Since the start of the pandemic, nurses have faced longer hours and higher stress. Many have had to quarantine after they or a family member became ill with Covid-19. In Flint, Michigan, the nurse-to-patient ratio went from the recommended 1:1 to 1:4. In November, North Dakota attempted to address its nursing shortage by allowing asymptomatic nurses infected with coronavirus to continue working with Covid-19 patients.

Hospitals have had to curtail services, and nurses have sometimes been required to work in areas for which they have limited training. Nurses and health officials continue to ask communities to do their part to reduce hospital strain by following social distancing guidelines and wearing masks.

The staffing crisis is exacerbated by the continued increase in coronavirus patients; almost 100,000 people are currently hospitalized from Covid-19 across the country, a record high, as states and cities consider implementing new restrictions following the Thanksgiving holiday (Guardian, WaPo). 

Dr. Slaoui: Covid-19 Vaccines Are Safe; Significant Side Effects Occur in 10-15% of Recipients

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the vaccine expert who leads the Covid-19 vaccine program Operation Warp Speed, said on Tuesday that the vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna are safe and have mild side effects for most people (CNBC). About 10-15% of volunteers in the clinical trials experienced “significantly noticeable” side effects, including fatigue, high fever, body aches, and headaches. Health experts say that officials should be open about the potential side effects of the vaccine so that the public knows what to expect and will return for the second dose.

“We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park,” said Dr. Sandra Fryhofer of the American Medical Association. “They are going to know they had a vaccine. They are probably not going to feel wonderful. But they’ve got to come back for that second dose.”

Drop-off in U.S. Covid-19 Numbers Likely Artificial; Experts Warn of a ‘Horrible’ Winter

After weeks of sharply rising cases, the average daily caseload in the U.S. finally appeared to tick downward over the Thanksgiving holiday. However, experts say this drop is likely an artifact of limited testing over the holiday (NYT). David Leonhardt of the New York Times explained that, while deaths typically lag behind cases by about three weeks, both cases and deaths seemed to drop by a similar percentage in the days surrounding Thanksgiving. Due to a slowdown in testing over the holiday, new cases are likely to go unreported and new deaths potentially attributed to other causes. Experts believe cases are still on the rise and could worsen significantly in the coming weeks.

Even with vaccine approval likely around the corner, health officials warn that it is not time to ease up on public health measures. It will likely be several months before a vaccine is available to everyone, and several more before sufficient numbers of people have taken the vaccine to curtail community spread. Some epidemiologists predict that the death toll could double by March (NYT). Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, predicted that “the next three months are going to be just horrible.” Health officials remain optimistic about the potential of a vaccine, and updated policies from the incoming administration, to turn the pandemic around in the spring.

Red Cross Chief Says Vaccine Misinformation is a ‘Parallel Pandemic’

Francesco Rocca, president of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, called on U.N. correspondents on Monday to combat mistrust and misinformation on Covid-19 vaccines and pandemic response measures (CNN).

"To beat Covid-19, we also need to defeat the parallel pandemic of mistrust that has consistently hindered our collective response to this disease, and that could undermine our shared ability to vaccinate against it," he said. Scientists estimate that around 80% of the population will need to be vaccinated in order to prevent community spread of Covid-19, but vaccine hesitancy is growing in many parts of the world. Distrust of or misinformation about basic public health interventions such as mask wearing have also become commonplace. Rocca emphasized that coordinated efforts to build trust and combat misinformation should be viewed as essential components of equitable Covid-19 distribution.

Around the World

Europe

Russia Suffers Worst Day in Terms of Death Toll, Tries to Import Drugs to Treat Coronavirus

Wednesday marked the worst day in terms of daily death toll for Russia since the pandemic began; the government reported 589 deaths in a 24-hour period, bringing the total number of deaths to 41,053 (Guardian). On Tuesday, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said that the government is trying to import foreign-made drugs to fight the pandemic as there is a shortage of products in the country (Reuters). Russia has been developing several vaccines against the virus and also produces Coronavir and Avifavir domestically, two anti-clotting drugs that are based on Favipiravir, a drug developed in Japan and used widely there as treatment for coronavirus. But Murashko said there was a problem with the supply of Favipiravir in some regions. Russia has the fourth-largest number of Covid-19 cases in the world with 2,322,056 infections, trailing behind the United States, India, and Brazil.

European Study Finds Food Habits Changed Drastically During Lockdown

Eating and food-buying habits have changed due to lockdown, probably permanently, according to a study by EIT Food, Europe’s leading food innovation initiative supported by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT). The study surveyed 5,000 consumers across ten European countries to analyze if and how lockdown measures caused behavioral change in relation to food buying and consumption. The research was done by a consortium of universities led by Aarhus University in Denmark. The study found that “consumers across Europe suffered financial hardship during the COVID-19 pandemic. A third of respondents (34%) lost part or all of their income and more than half (55%) said they found it difficult to make ends meet every month. Despite this, European consumers reported buying more in almost every food category.” It also found that “the largest behavioural shift was the way we shop, with nearly half of consumers reporting an increase in online shopping (45%); bulk purchases (47%); and carefully planned shopping trips (45%).” Researchers believe that some of the behavioral changes around food buying and preparing will continue after the pandemic ends, saying they found that “nearly a third of consumers said it will be more important to have time to cook home-made meals (27%) and to continue eating more varied foods (30%) after the pandemic.”

Asia

India Says It May Not Need to Vaccinate Entire Population

India may not need to vaccinate all 1.3 billion people in order to inoculate a critical mass, government officials said on Tuesday (Reuters). “...If we are able to vaccinate a critical mass of people, and break that virus transmission, then we may not have to vaccinate the entire population,” Balram Bhargava, Director General of the state-run Indian Council Of Medical Research, said at the press briefing. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized the importance of a vaccine to control Covid-19 and said in October that the government was preparing to reach every citizen as soon as a vaccine was ready. But Rajesh Bhushan, the top bureaucrat in the federal health ministry, said at a news conference on Tuesday that “the government has never spoken about vaccinating the entire country.” World Health Organization experts have pointed to a 65%-70% vaccine coverage rate as sufficient to reach population immunity.

Japan Passes Law to Make Covid-19 Vaccines Free

On Wednesday Japan’s parliament passed a law that makes vaccinations against Covid-19 free, urging people to get inoculated once the vaccines become available (WaPo). The revision to existing laws passed by the Upper House of parliament says that people are “obliged to make efforts” to receive the coronavirus vaccine, but a Health Ministry official, speaking anonymously, told the Washington Post that the vaccine would not be mandatory. The law also says the government would pay for treatment if the vaccines cause any health problems, according to public broadcaster NHK. It will also compensate the drug company for any damages they might have to pay to individuals who experience complications. Japan has deals with Pfizer, Astra Zeneca, and local vaccine developers for hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines to be delivered in the first half of 2021

U.S. Government & Politics

Bipartisan Senate Group Pushes $908 Billion Stimulus

A bipartisan group of senators on Tuesday proposed a new $908 billion stimulus plan that proponents hope will break the months of political deadlock over the terms of a new coronavirus relief package. Moderate senators in both parties unveiled the plan at a morning press conference. Supporters include Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), and Susan Collins (R-Maine). While details were limited, it would include $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits for four months, $160 billion for state and local governments and a moratorium on certain pandemic-related lawsuits against companies, among other provisions. The deal, although falling short of the $2 trillion stimulus proposed by Democrats, would be almost twice as much as the $500 billion package proposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The deal has no buy-in from either McConnell or President Donald Trump, who has largely stayed out of the debate since losing the November 3 election (WaPo, Politico). McConnell appeared cold to the proposal on Tuesday when he introduced another bill worth around $500 billion at a weekly press conference. “We just don’t have time to waste time,” said McConnell (The Hill).

Nevada Governor Hits Back Over Trump Tweet

Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak on Tuesday blasted President Donald Trump’s “unconscionable” tweet accusing a Reno medical center of setting up a fake Covid-19 ward. The president retweeted a post on Tuesday morning from an account called NetworkInVegas.com falsely claiming that the Renown Regional Medical Center in Reno had lied about converting its garage into a Covid-19 unit. It included a selfie of a man in a hazmat suit, who turned out to be an emergency room doctor at the facility, standing in the garage with no patients in view. The president’s retweet was accompanied with the words “Fake election results in Nevada, also!” Jacob Keeperman, the doctor in the photo, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he had taken the selfie at the start of the ward’s first day of operation on Sunday before patients had arrived. The Democratic governor released a statement later on Tuesday saying that Trump’s “consistent misleading rhetoric on Covid-19 is dangerous and reckless, and today's implication that Renown's alternate care site is a ‘fake hospital’ is among the worst examples we've seen” (The Hill, Las Vegas Review-Journal).

U.S. Economy

Manufacturing Slowed in November Due to Coronavirus Surge

Manufacturing expansion slowed in November as a resurgence in coronavirus cases across the U.S. kept employees at home. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) index gave last month a factory activity rating of 57.5. That number was down from 59.3 in October, the highest level reported since November 2018. Under the ISM’s methodology, any number above 50 indicates expansion. The ISM blamed the slowdown on a combination of increased absenteeism and difficulties in hiring replacements during the pandemic. The slowdown hit petroleum and coal products manufacturing, as well as printing, particularly hard, with both sectors contracting. Sixteen other industries, including metal and machinery manufacturing, saw expansion. But while factory activity overall has thus far remained fairly resilient, experts fear that it is the beginning of a prolonged slowdown. “The feared economic slowdown is starting, but it is pretty slow off the blocks,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics in Holland, Pennsylvania (Reuters).

Thanksgiving Retail Down From Last Year in U.S.

American shoppers spent less money over the Thanksgiving holiday than last year. About 186 million people shopped from Thanksgiving Day through Monday, down from 190 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation industry group. Those who did shop spent an average of $312 each, down from $362 last year. The National Retail Federation blamed the lackluster sales on an unusually high number of earlier holiday sales events designed to stagger crowds from congregating inside stores on Black Friday. Other analysts have pointed to consumer uncertainty over the economy and pandemic. “It’s going to be a tough holiday season for most retailers,” Paula Rosenblum, managing partner at RSR Research, told the Washington Post. “Target, Walmart, grocers and sporting goods stores are cleaning up, but hundreds of thousands of independent retailers have already gone out of business. Things are going to get worse before they get better.” As we noted on Monday, a drop in visits to brick and mortar retail on Black Friday was anticipated by industry analysts. Online sales, however, rose heavily in line with expectations, with Friday and Monday setting records as the second and first busiest online shopping days in U.S. history respectively (WaPo).

Bonus Read: “Reinventing Workers for the Post-Covid Economy,” (NYT).

U.S. Society

Families Sue California, Alleging Lack of “Basic Educational Equality” In Remote Learning; Analysis of U.S. Test Scores Shows Educational Disadvantages for Black, Hispanic and Poor Students

Seven Californian families are suing the state, alleging that Black and Latino students are receiving substandard education amid pandemic-induced school closures. The lawsuit argues that minority students have been disproportionately facing a lack of access to laptops and reliable internet, haphazard instruction and unreachable teachers. “The change in the delivery of education left many already-underserved students functionally unable to attend school,” according to the complaint, which was filed on Monday in the Alameda Superior Court. “The State continues to refuse to step up and meet its constitutional obligation to ensure basic educational equality or indeed any education at all,” it continues. State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, who is listed as a defendant, acknowledged shortcomings but maintained that the state was addressing their concerns. “There is no question that this pandemic has disproportionately impacted those who have been made vulnerable by historic and systemic inequities,” admitted Thurmond in a statement, adding that the state has nonetheless been working intensively during the pandemic to improve remote educational access (WaPo).

As students experience educational disruptions and adjust to online learning environments, educators and parents have worried about the impact such disruptions are having. Several new reports have offered an early look at the potential impacts of the pandemic on children’s education (NBC). A new report from the NWEA, formerly the Northwest Evaluation center, analyzed test scores given to nearly 4.4 million U.S. students in third through eighth grade. As expected, average math scores dropped from previous years, with students scoring an average of five to 10 points lower than students who took the test last year. Reading scores for most students remained similar to previous years. For Black and Hispanic students and students attending high-poverty schools, however, reading scores dropped, indicating that the pandemic may be disproportionately harming educational progress in these students. Dr. Megan Kuhfeld, the senior NWEA scientist who led the study, said the results are a cause for concern, noting that educational gaps now could lead to learning difficulties in later grades.

Film Production at Los Angeles Testing Site Axed By Mayor Following Backlash

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti intervened to keep the Union Station coronavirus testing site open on Tuesday after it emerged that it was to be closed for one day to accommodate a Hollywood film crew. Previously, the company operating the test site announced that it was shuttering the center for one day for an “event.” It later emerged that the closure was to allow filming for the remake to the teen romantic comedy “She’s All That” starring TikTok personality Addison Rae. The news sparked backlash from residents concerned about the wisdom of closing down a test site amid a coronavirus surge. A total of 504 people had tests scheduled at the location for Tuesday. FilmLA, the public benefit corporation responsible for processing filming permits in Los Angeles, denied knowledge of the permit’s issuance. “All we know at this hour is that this decision wasn’t made by FilmLA or the city’s film permit approver LAPD, nor was it sought by the production company seeking to film at Union Station,” Philip Sokoloski, a spokesman for FilmLA, told the Los Angeles Times. The mayor’s office also said it was caught off guard, maintaining it only heard of the closure on Monday (WaPo, Los Angeles Times).

Analysis & Arguments

A German couple of Turkish descent have been integral to developing BioNTech and Pfizer’s vaccine candidate and while their story should be challenging resentment against immigrants but some of the messaging is only solidifying the unease in Germany around the topic of immigration, writes Anna Sauerbrey (NYT). 

Matthias Blamont looks at instances of the flu in Europe this winter and asking if the silver lining to the Covid-19 pandemic is minimal flu cases (Reuters).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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