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May 12, 2021 - Brief Issue 196

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

CDC’s Figures for Outdoor Covid-19 Transmission Reflect an Overabundance of Caution, Experts Say (Health & Science)

A Handful of States Have Already Hit Biden’s Goal of 70% Vaccination, While Others Battle Widespread Vaccine Skepticism (Health & Science)

Combination Tests Help Doctors, Patients Distinguish Between Covid-19 and Other Illnesses (Health & Science)

Potential Pan-Coronavirus Shot Fends Off Covid-19, Variants, and Other Coronaviruses (Health & Science)

After Pfizer Authorization, White Houses Pushes for Vaccination Among Children (Health & Science)

Black Fungus Cases Increase in India, Worrying Doctors (Around the World)

Southeast Asia Struggles with Virus (Around the World)

Latin Americans Book Flights to the US for Covid-19 Vaccinations (Around the World)

Brazil’s Health Agency Calls to Suspend AstraZeneca Vaccine for Pregnant Women (Around the World)

State Department Review of Covid Policy Criticizes “Void of Leadership” Under Trump, Pompeo (U.S. Government & Politics)

Uber and Lyft to Make Trips for Vaccination Free in Partnership with the White House (U.S. Government & Politics)

Job Openings Hit Record High Despite Hiring Slowdown (U.S. Economy)

Diet Companies Reaping the Benefits as People Aim to Drop the Pandemic Pounds (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 32,779,414 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 582,848 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 446,863,658 tests and administered 263,132,561 vaccine doses, with 46.2% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 35.1% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 159,732,343 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,319,169 deaths. At least 95,819,194 people have recovered from the virus.

CDC’s Figures for Outdoor Covid-19 Transmission Reflect an Overabundance of Caution, Experts Say

As part of new outdoor mask guidelines released last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that under 10% of coronavirus infections occur outdoors − but experts say this figure is misleading, since the actual percentage is likely much lower (NYT, Fox). There are no documented Covid-19 cases traced to casual outdoor interactions, and while research on the subject is limited, the percentage of cases spread outdoors may fall around 0.1%. “I’m sure it’s possible for transmission to occur outdoors in the right circumstances,” said Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania, “but if we had to put a number on it, I would say much less than 1 percent.” Observational data from Britain, where outdoor masking is rare, suggest that inside transmission is far more likely. Yet the CDC has kept its figure at 10% and continues to push for masking in busy outdoor spaces. While this is partly due to a misclassification of global Covid-19 data inflating the number of cases transmitted outdoors, health experts say the CDC’s conservative estimate reflects an abundance of caution. The CDC has been garnering criticism of its conservative guidance, which some say is out of touch with how Americans actually live and might underplay the benefits of vaccination (STAT). “There’s still a lot of abstinence-only in their Covid guidances,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “People somehow kind of walled off what they know about HIV, opioid use, and hep C … and we are the worse for it.”

A Handful of States Have Already Hit Biden’s Goal of 70% Vaccination, While Others Battle Widespread Vaccine Skepticism

In Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont, over 70% of the adult population is at least partially vaccinated against Covid-19, making these three states the first to reach the vaccination percentage President Biden set as a national goal for July 4 (CNN). Maine, Connecticut, and Hawaii are close behind. This comes as daily vaccination rates continue to drop − the U.S. experienced another 20% decrease in the daily vaccination rate average over the past week − and data show persistent hesitancy surrounding the vaccine. In some states, including Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Kentucky, and Ohio, over 20% of adults said they would “definitely” or “probably” not get the shot, posing serious challenges to Biden’s July 4 target of having 70% of U.S. adults at least partially inoculated. The Biden administration has redirected its focus from mass vaccination sites to walk-in pharmacies and pop-up clinics, with the goal of reaching more people on a local level. 

Combination Tests Help Doctors, Patients Distinguish Between Covid-19 and Other Illnesses

Though flu cases dropped drastically in the U.S. last winter, thanks to public health measures directed at Covid-19, experts anticipate higher case counts this coming flu season as people return to work and school, wear masks less often, and encounter germs their immune systems haven’t fought off for over a year (NYT). According to Dr. Geoffrey Baird of the University of Washington in Seattle, as the flu spreads, more people will want to know if what they have is the flu or Covid-19. New combination tests are likely to help with that. California-based company Cepheid received Food and Drug Administration authorization for its “quad test,” which uses polymerase chain reaction technology to test for the coronavirus, two types of flu, and another common respiratory virus, last September. That test is now available across the U.S., with similar ones on the market or in development. A French company called  bioMérieux sells a test that can identify 22 pathogens including the coronavirus. While these “multiplex” tests may have difficulty identifying co-infections, where multiple pathogens are present in the body, they nonetheless offer promise as experts anticipate an increase in testing for Covid-19 and other diseases. “We in the laboratory are preparing for another big boom in testing,” Baird said. “Even if people are vaccinated, they’re going to wonder, ‘Am I the breakthrough case?’”

Potential Pan-Coronavirus Shot Fends Off Covid-19, Variants, and Other Coronaviruses

A possible new “pan-coronavirus” vaccine developed by researchers from the Duke Human Vaccine Institute appears to offer protection against SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing Covid-19, as well as some of its variants and other coronaviruses altogether (Medical Xpress). Published in Nature, results showed this vaccine to be 100% effective in preventing Covid-19 infections in monkeys. The Duke team identified a receptor binding domain present in SARS-CoV-2, its variants, and SARS-adjacent bat coronaviruses, then designed a nanoparticle vaccine targeting this specific spot. "Basically what we've done is take multiple copies of a small part of the coronavirus to make the body's immune system respond to it in a heightened way," said lead author Dr. Kevin Saunders. "We found that not only did that increase the body's ability to inhibit the virus from causing infection, but it also targets this cross-reactive site of vulnerability on the spike protein more frequently. We think that's why this vaccine is effective against SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2 and at least four of its common variants, plus additional animal coronaviruses." Senior author Dr. Barton Haynes emphasized that three coronavirus epidemics have occurred globally in the past two decades, so a pan-coronavirus vaccine would have major public health implications. 

After Pfizer Authorization, White Houses Pushes for Vaccination Among Children

After the Food and Drug Administration authorized the Pfizer vaccine for emergency use in kids 12 to 15 years old this Tuesday, CDC director Rochelle Walensky encouraged children to ask for the shot, even if their parents aren’t sold on the vaccine (WaPo). Experts say getting kids vaccinated is a critical step in curbing the spread of the virus, but a recent poll found that less than a third of parents are willing to have their children vaccinated as soon as possible (NYT, CNN). With the vaccination of young adolescents slated to start later this week, officials are trying to set up effective pathways for getting kids vaccinated, looking to schools, beaches, parks, and summer camps as possible vaccination sites. Pediatricians, who often build close relationships with families, are a particular target − President Biden said last week that he would ship Pfizer doses directly to pediatric offices. The Biden administration is expecting enough data to start authorizing vaccines for Americans even younger than 12 by late fall (WSJ). 

Bonus Reads: “Inside the Quest to Reach the Unvaccinated,” (Politico); “The Myriad Ways Sewage Surveillance is Helping Fight COVID Around the World,” (Nature). 

Around the World

Asia

Black Fungus Cases Increase in India, Worrying Doctors

Doctors in India noticed a troubling trend among patients who had recovered from Covid-19: they came back to the hospital with different symptoms, like sinus pain, blurred vision, black and bloody nasal discharge, and discoloration around the nose. The cause was a deadly fungal infection called mucormycosis that doctors have discovered to be increasingly common in people with immune systems weakened by Covid-19 and the steroids used to treat it. The infection, known as “black fungus,” remains rare but it is becoming more prevalent. “The death rate from mucormycosis is 50 percent,” said Amarinder Singh Malhi from All India Institute of Medical Science, a public hospital in New Delhi (WaPo). “The death rate from covid is 2.5 percent. So we have to use these steroids very cautiously.” P Suresh, head of ophthalmology at Fortis Hospital in Mulund, near Mumbai, told Reuters his hospital had treated at least 10 mucormycosis patients in the past two weeks — twice as many as they had the entire year before the pandemic. All had been infected with Covid-19 and most were diabetic or had received immunosuppressants, such as steroids. 

Southeast Asia Struggles with Virus 

Southeast Asian countries that had kept the virus at bay for most of 2020 are now struggling to contain outbreaks that are threatening to overwhelm fragile healthcare systems. Across the region, the globally daily new cases remain at “an unacceptably high plateau” that leaves the entire world in continued danger, director general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said on Monday (NYT). In Southeast Asia, Dr. Tedros noted that “cases and deaths are still increasing rapidly.” Cambodia and Thailand, which kept the virus under control throughout 2020, have lately recorded sharp increases in infections. On Monday Malaysia announced a new nationwide lockdown, two days after recording its highest daily case total since January. 

Americas

Latin Americans Book Flights to the US for Covid-19 Vaccinations

From Mexico to Argentina, thousands of Latin Americans are flying to the U.S. to take advantage of one of the world’s most successful vaccination campaigns (Reuters). Latin America is one of the regions hardest hit by the pandemic, with the death toll set to pass 1 million this month, and many countries haven’t been able to get their vaccination programs up and running. Many people who have or can get U.S. visas don’t want to wait any longer and some U.S. cities are welcoming them with open arms; as we covered in a previous brief, New York City will be offering vaccines to tourists at iconic sites across the city. The U.S. embassy in Peru recently advised residents on Twitter that travelers could visit the United States for medical treatment, including vaccinations. The uptick in vaccine tourism has fueled an increase in fares.

Brazil’s Health Agency Calls to Suspend AstraZeneca Vaccine for Pregnant Women

Anvisa, Brazil’s health authority, has called for an immediate suspension of the use of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine among pregnant women (WSJ). The agency said late Monday that the recommendation was the result of “constant monitoring of adverse events related to Covid vaccines in use in the country” but did not give further details. According to Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, authorities were investigating the death of a pregnant woman in Rio de Janeiro who had taken the vaccine. The AstraZeneca shot is being produced locally in Brazil by the public research center Fiocruz and is one of the main vaccines being administered in the country. Brazil has also been using the CoronaVac shot, developed by Chinese firm Sinovac. 

U.S. Government & Politics

State Department Review of Covid Policy Criticizes “Void of Leadership” Under Trump, Pompeo

On Tuesday, Politico reported that an unreleased State Department report reviewing U.S. Covid policy criticized a “void of U.S. international leadership” amid the pandemic (Politico). Politico writes, “Portions of a draft report, obtained by POLITICO, cited former President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from international forums as weakening U.S. global leadership. The findings are detailed in a draft of the State Department’s wide-ranging Covid-19 Interim Review, a report laying out what the Department learned in the first year of the global pandemic.” The document Politico reviewed was a draft document, and the final may not include all the phrasings in it. The document, which notes a range of complaints from career State Department officials also states, “[T]he decision to reassure Americans of their safety and avoid damaging the economy delayed warnings to American citizens about travel during a pandemic until well after airlines were cutting flights and borders were closing around the world.” The document also pointed to the Trump administration’s antagonistic relationship with the WHO and other multilateral organizations.

Uber and Lyft to Make Trips for Vaccination Free in Partnership with the White House

As part of a partnership with the White House, the ridesharing companies Uber and Lyft will make trips to and from vaccination sites free until July 4 (NYT, WSJ). On Tuesday, White House Covid-19 Coordinator Jeff Zients described the plan, which is part of the administration’s effort to reach 70% vaccination by July 4. The Wall Street Journal writes, “The administration will provide data on about 80,000 vaccination sites to Lyft and Uber as part of the transportation partnership, a senior administration official said.” Both companies have already provided free or lower cost rides to vaccination sites in some cases, but the Journal notes, “the rides will now be free to anyone in the U.S. who is going to a vaccination site to get the shot, and Lyft and Uber will promote the rides to and from tens of thousands of vaccination sites through their apps.” The function will launch in the next two weeks.

Biden Thanks Bipartisan Group of Governors for Efforts on Covid

On Tuesday, President Biden met with and praised the pandemic response efforts of a bipartisan group of six governors (WaPo, WaPo). Biden stated, “It isn’t Democratic progress and Republican progress. It’s American progress. And now we’ve got to take the next step together” while reemphasizing his goal of 70% vaccination by July 4. Ohio’s Republican Governor Mike DeWine stated during the virtual meeting, which discussed best practices, “I think you’re seeing governors continue to push out and go to where people are,” adding, “We have some health departments literally out knocking on doors. We have mobile clinics going around, and we want to reach people exactly where they are.”

Fauci: Rand Paul is “Entirely and Completely Incorrect”

In the latest clash of comments between Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul and Dr. Anthony Fauci, Fauci criticized Senator Paul’s suggestion that U.S. funded research in China that made the coronavirus more contagious, “entirely and completely incorrect” (WaPo). During a Senate hearing, Senator Paul had stated, “The U.S. government should admit that the Wuhan Virology Institute was experimenting to enhance the coronavirus’s ability to infect humans. Juicing up super viruses is not new.” Fauci replied, “Senator Paul, with all due respect, you are entirely, entirely and completely incorrect that the NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain of function research in the Wuhan Institute.” Senator Paul then began to say “Government scientists like yourself who favor gain function …” into which Fauci interrupted, “I don’t favor gain of function research in China and you are saying things that are not correct.” The Washington Post writes regarding the subject, “Last year, the Trump administration forced the NIH to terminate a grant for a study that examined how coronaviruses spread from bats to humans. The study’s sponsor was a New York-based nonprofit group called EcoHealth Alliance, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology had a subgrant under the contract. The NIH halted payments to the subcontractor in Wuhan last year as experts tried to determine whether the virus could have slipped out of the lab in Wuhan. Some right-wing media and politicians have seized on the theory that the virus was engineered in or escaped from the lab in Wuhan, and suggested falsely that the NIH helped fund that research.” Senator Paul and Fauci had previously clashed in another hearing in March over the importance of masks.

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Dow Drops More Than 400 Points as Stock Selloff Extends,” (WSJ).

Job Openings Hit Record High Despite Hiring Slowdown 

Job opening listings reached a record high at the end of March even as April’s jobs report suggested that the number of people actually being hired has slowed (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Job openings reached a record level of 8.1 million at the end of March, reflecting a widening gap between open positions and workers willing and able to take those roles. Available jobs rose by a seasonally adjusted 600,000 in March to exceed the prior record of 7.6 million set in November 2018, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Data from job search site Indeed.com separately showed job posting continued to rise in April, ending the month 24% higher than February 2020’s pre-pandemic level.” Multiple factors may contribute to the difference between available jobs and actual hiring. The Journal writes, “There were still more unemployed Americans—9.7 million in March—than open jobs, but there are several factors economists see for why workers aren’t taking available positions. Those include expanded unemployment benefits, fear of contracting Covid-19 and a lack of child care. Some unemployed workers may not have the skills or desire to take available jobs in fields such as manufacturing, which added 134,000 available jobs in March, or construction, which added 72,000.” Meanwhile, a lot of the growth was in the hospitality and food service industries, where the average wage may not be competitive with what people are receiving through unemployment benefits. As the boosted unemployment benefit expires and as students return to school, likely lowering the impact of child care needs for some workers, hiring may increase.

Americans Are Paying Down Credit Card Debt to the Woe of Banks

Amid the pandemic, Americans have been paying down their credit card debt, a trend that does not sit well with the banks that issue credit cards (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Americans are paying down their credit-card debt at levels not seen in years. That is good news for everyone but credit-card issuers. Large card issuers that cater to borrowers ranging from the affluent to the subprime say that overall card balances—and thus the firms’ interest income—are falling. To make up for it, issuers are spending more on marketing and loosening their underwriting standards.” The trend likely reflects both changes in purchasing patterns and how Americans are using their stimulus funds.

U.S. Society

Diet Companies Reaping the Benefits as People Aim to Drop the Pandemic Pounds

The New York Times reports that diet companies are reaping the benefits as many Americans seek to drop the weight they put on during the pandemic (NYT). The Times reports, “In recent weeks and months, companies that sell plans to help lose weight have seen jumps in new business. The privately held Noom, which offers customized health plans on its app starting at $59 a month, has seen that app downloaded nearly four million times in the United States in the past year, making it one of the most downloaded health and fitness apps, according to Apptopia. Similarly, with access to many of its studios all over the world restricted for much of the past year, WW International, formerly known as Weight Watchers, reported last week that it had 4.2 million digital subscribers, a 16 percent jump from a year earlier.” Research suggests that pandemic weight gain is far from a myth. One small study found that during stay-at-home orders, its participants gained half a pound every ten days. 

Analysis & Arguments

Derek Thompson examines why vaccinations are slowing down (Atlantic).

Rahul Bhatia writes on Covid misinformation in India (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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