Good day. A key procedural vote that could determine whether Judy Shelton has enough support to win confirmation to the Federal Reserve board could come as soon as today. Yesterday, a third Republican senator said he wouldn't support President Trump's pick for the open governor's seat, making her confirmation prospects more uncertain. Meanwhile, Fed No. 2 Richard Clarida said he expects more fiscal and monetary stimulus will be needed. And on the regulatory front, Securities and Exchange Commission leader Jay Clayton is on the way out.

Now on to today’s news and analysis.

A third Republican senator said he would oppose the confirmation of a nominee of President Trump to a seat on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, setting up a close vote as soon as this week. In a statement, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) said he wouldn’t support the nomination of Judy Shelton, an outspoken critic of the central bank and close ally of Mr. Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow, leaving her with support from no more than 50 senators.

• SEC Whistleblower Program Sets New Records in 2020

Few companies have benefited more from the e-commerce shopping boom sparked by the pandemic than Dutch payments firm Adyen NV. The best-performing large stock in Europe this year, Adyen is up almost 120%, vaulting its market value to nearly $60 billion, bigger than some of the region’s top banks, including Swiss giant UBS. 

8 a.m.: European Central Bank’s de Guindos speaks at virtual EU-South America financial regulation forum
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Commerce Department releases October retail sales
9:15 a.m.: Federal Reserve releases October U.S. industrial production
11 a.m.: European Central Bank’s Lagarde speaks in online Q&A during Bloomberg New Economy Forum; Bank of England’s Ramsden gives public lecture for University of Nottingham
1 p.m.: Fed’s Powell speaks in Bay Area Council webcast; Fed’s Brainard gives welcoming remarks at virtual exploring careers in economics event; Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks in virtual series on racism and the economy
2 p.m.: New York Fed’s Williams serves as moderator for discussion with Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi at virtual Economic Club of New York event; Bank of Canada’s Macklem speaks at online forum on sustainable finance and transition to low-carbon economy
3 p.m.: Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks on economy at virtual Charleston, S.C., Metro Chamber of Commerce event

Time N/A: Bank of Thailand releases policy statement
3:15 a.m.: European Central Bank’s Enria speaks at online conference on the banking union
5:30 a.m.: Bank of England’s Haldane speas at online TheCityUK conference
8:15 a.m.: Bank of Canada’s Wilkins speaks at virtual Women’s Forum Global Meeting
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Commerce Department releases October housing starts
10 a.m.: Chicago Fed’s Evans speaks at virtual summit on regional competitiveness
11:30 a.m.: Bank of England’s Bailey speaks in online conversation with U.S. Rep. Langevin at Carnegie Institute for World Peace
12:15 p.m.: New York Fed’s Williams speaks at Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing virtual event
1:20 p.m.: St. Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks online on economy and monetary policy to Rotary Club of Hot Springs National Park
7 p.m.: Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, Richmond Fed’s Barkin speak at Federal Reserve education webinar

Banks remain in a solid position to withstand stress as the coronavirus pandemic once again picks up steam, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday. The biggest change now facing banks is charge-offs, which reflect “the potential impact of a renewed deterioration in employment and the macroeconomic environment more broadly.” That said, while charge-offs are rising, they don’t yet compare with what was seen during the approach to the financial crisis in 2008, the report said. “Combining the improved liquidity and deteriorated capital under stress, run vulnerability has remained almost unchanged,” the report said. Its findings appear to echo what Fed officials have been saying, which is that the financial system was well prepared for this crisis due to regulation and seems to be navigating it well so far. (Michael S. Derby)

• Retail sales likely increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October from a month earlier, economists surveyed by the Journal estimate. 
• Manufacturing activity in New York state further slowed in November, data from the New York Fed showed. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's general business conditions index fell to 6.3 in November from 10.5 the prior month. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• Aluminum futures reached their highest level since 2018, hitting $1,968.50 a metric ton, helped by hopes of Chinese demand. (DJN)
• Indonesia's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 4% Thursday, according to seven of 11 economists polled by the Journal. (DJN)
• Norway's mainland GDP rose +5.2% in the third quarter. (DJN) 
• Australia's payroll jobs increased 0.5% over the two weeks to Oct. 31, compared with a decrease of 0.1% two weeks earlier. (DJN)

This newsletter is compiled by James Christie in San Francisco and Ed Ballard in London. 

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