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November 16, 2020 - Brief Issue 119

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Vaccine Update: Moderna’s Coronavirus Vaccine is 94.5% Effective, Early Data Show; 20 Million Americans Could Receive Vaccines in December; States Still Lack Funds to Distribute Vaccines (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Cases Continue to Spike; U.S. Records 11 Million Total Cases; Hospitalizations and Deaths on the Rise; Disproportionate Burden on Black, Latino, and Native American Communities (Health & Science)

Fauci: Expect Return to Normalcy in the Second or Third Quarter of 2021 (Health & Science)

States Enact New Restrictions Amid Covid-19 Surge (Health & Science)

Bars, Borders Remain Closed Across Europe; German Minister Says Prepare for Another 4-5 Months of Lockdown; UK PM Self-Isolates After Contact Tests Positive (Around the World)

Mexico Surpasses One Million Confirmed Coronavirus Cases (Around the World)

India Struggles with Spike in Cases (Around the World)

 China’s New Testing Policy for Travelers Doesn’t Make Sense (Around the World)

Japan’s Economy Bounced Back, For Now (Around the World)

Health Experts, Some Republican Governors Worry About Trump’s Stalling on Transition as Coronavirus Cases Surge (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Team: National Lockdown Would be Last Resort (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pandemic Expands Acceptance of Digital Commerce (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic May Change Retirement for Americans (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 11,037,776 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 246,217 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 4,185,463 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 162,748,492 tests. Worldwide, there have been 54,424,726 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,317,812 deaths. At least 34,993,347 people have recovered from the virus.

Vaccine Update: Moderna’s Coronavirus Vaccine is 94.5% Effective, Early Data Show; 20 Million Americans Could Receive Vaccines in December; States Still Lack Funds to Distribute Vaccines

The drugmaker Moderna announced on Monday morning that its coronavirus vaccine was 94.5% effective based on early results from its study (NYT). Researchers said the results were better than expected, but a vaccine will not be ready for distribution for months. In Moderna’s study, 95 people contracted the coronavirus, five who were vaccinated and 90 who received placebo shots. Stéphane Bancel, the chief executive of Moderna, said in a statement that the results had provided “the first clinical validation that our vaccine can prevent Covid-19 disease, including severe disease.” Moderna is the second company to report on preliminary data on a successful vaccine; Pfizer, in collaboration with BioNTech, was the first, reporting a week ago that its vaccine was more than 90% effective. 

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, co-leader of Operation Warp Speed, said Friday that about 20 million Americans can expect to be vaccinated against coronavirus in December (Politico). Between 25 and 30 million Americans would likely receive their vaccinations each month thereafter. Frontline workers and high-risk individuals would be the first to receive vaccines, a process which could take several months. Federal health officials have said that the general public will likely not have access to a vaccine until Summer 2021.

Despite the prospect of millions of vaccines becoming available next month, states say they still lack the funding to distribute them (NYT). The Trump administration has left distribution logistics largely up to the states and has failed to appropriate the necessary funding. State officials say they need roughly $8.4 billion more in federal funding to expand online record keeping systems, train medical professionals, secure vaccination sites, and run public messaging campaigns. 

Covid-19 Cases Continue to Spike; U.S. Records 11 Million Total Cases; Hospitalizations and Deaths on the Rise; Disproportionate Burden on Black, Latino, and Native American Communities

On Sunday, after weeks of record-breaking Covid-19 case numbers, the United States surpassed 11 million total cases (NYT, WSJ, Johns Hopkins). The milestone came just a week after the U.S. reached 10 million cases. Sunday was also the thirteenth straight day of more than 100,000 new daily reported cases; a new high of over 177,000 cases was recorded on Friday.

Hospitalization and death rates rose more slowly than they did in the early spring, prompting hopes that the worst effects of the pandemic were behind us. Now, however, hospitalizations are threatening to overwhelm some institutions, and the seven-day average for daily Covid-19 deaths is now over 1,000 (NYT). Currently, more than 69,000 people are hospitalized with the virus, more than at any other point during the pandemic.

“It’s getting bad and it’s potentially going to get a lot worse,” said Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “The months ahead are looking quite horrifying.”

Black, Latino, and Native American populations continue to experience outsized effects of the pandemic, with each group experiencing hospitalization rates roughly four times higher than that of white Americans. These disproportionate burdens have been linked to higher infection rates, with non-white Americans comprising a larger proportion of essential service industries and being more likely to live in multi-generational households in densely populated areas.

Fauci: Expect Return to Normalcy in the Second or Third Quarter of 2021

Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Sunday that Americans should expect a gradual return to normal through 2021 (CNN, Fox). Dr. Fauci spoke encouragingly about Pfizer’s vaccine, which early results suggest is highly effective. If most Americans take the vaccine when it becomes available to them, Fauci said, “we could start getting things back into relative normal as we get into the second and third quarter of the year.” In the meantime, he said, “we can’t abandon fundamental public health measures.”

States Enact New Restrictions Amid Covid-19 Surge

At least 45 states reported higher Covid-19 infection rates this week than last, prompting many states to enact new restrictions. Utah and Ohio have enacted or updated mask mandates, New Mexico has placed restrictions on non-essential businesses and several states, including New York, Maryland and Oregon, have tightened their restrictions on indoor dining. In North Dakota, currently one of the hardest-hit states, Governor Doug Burgum announced a mask mandate, limits on indoor dining and suspension of high school sports and extracurricular activities. Michigan and Washington state each enacted strict measures Sunday night, with Michigan closing schools and prohibiting virtually all public indoor gatherings and Washington closing or restricting most non-essential businesses and prohibiting social gatherings beyond one household (CNN, NYT, WSJ).

Study Discovers Why Some Patients Might Experience More Severe Covid-19 Symptoms

An international study published in the research journal Science may help explain why some patients experience drastically different Covid-19 outcomes (NBC, Hill). The team of researchers examined a group of proteins called interferons (IFNs), which help the body eliminate foreign invaders such as viruses. According to the study, approximately 10% of the 987 severely affected Covid-19 patients in the study had a genetic mutation that caused autoantibodies – antibodies that attack the body instead of pathogens – to inhibit IFNs, preventing them from effectively clearing the virus.

None of the 663 people with mild or moderate Covid-19 symptoms had any sign of the autoantibodies, the study found. Interestingly, 94% of severely ill patients with high antibody counts were male – an unexpected finding, considering that autoimmune disorders are more common in women. Experts believe this could help explain why more men than women become critically ill with Covid-19.

"This is one of the most important things we've learned about the immune system since the start of the pandemic," said Dr. Eric Topol, executive vice president for research at Scripps Research in San Diego, who was not involved in the study. "This is a breakthrough finding."

People With Developmental Disorders Face High Risk From Covid-19

A new analysis performed by FAIR Health found that people with developmental disorders were at greater risk of dying from Covid-19 than any other risk group, including those with lung cancer (STAT, NYT). The study analyzed a large database of medical claims and studied outcomes of more than 460,000 patients diagnosed with Covid-19 between April and August. Those with developmental disorders were over three times as likely to die from Covid-19 than those with no identified risk factors.

The study raises questions about vaccine distribution guidelines. So far, the guidelines have prioritized medical workers and certain at-risk individuals, but they have not yet listed people with intellectual disabilities as high priority for early vaccination. Dr. Arthur Caplan, director of medical ethics at the New York University Grossman School of Medicine, said there should be “no question” that these individuals “must be given priority for vaccination.”

The study also identified several other health conditions as increasing the risk of death from Covid-19, including lung cancer, spina bifida, Alzheimer’s disease, and certain cancers and other chronic health problems. The authors of the study wrote that they hoped their study would “provide actionable data to support policies on vaccine distribution and prioritization.” 

Biden Advisor: Indoor Dining Poses Much Greater Risk than School Opening for Viral Spread

Dr. Celine Gounder, one of President-elect Joe Biden’s Coronavirus advisors, said Saturday that indoor dining poses a much larger risk for viral spread than in-person schooling (CBS). Gounder said that local officials should consider both risk of transmission and how essential a service is when making decisions on closing and reopening.

“Restaurants indoor dining is far riskier, far more likely to lead to transmission than are schools,” Gounder said. “They should be closed first and schools not until later.” Dr. Gounder added that in areas with high transmission, it is unsafe for schools to meet in person.

Bonus Read: Doctors Are Calling It Quits Under Stress of the Pandemic,’ (NYT).

Around the World

Record-Breaking Weekend for Coronavirus Cases, Says WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) said Saturday’s figures of 660,905 and Friday’s 645,410 both surpassed the previous daily case record which was recorded at 614,013 on November 7, according to AFP. Within Saturday’s new cases, the WHO’s Americas region registered a one-day record high of 269,225 new confirmed infections. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director-general, warned on Friday that there was “a long way to go” in getting the virus under control globally.

Europe

Bars, Borders Remain Closed Across Europe; German Minister Says Prepare for Another 4-5 Months of Lockdown; UK PM Self-Isolates After Contact Tests Positive

Strict measures are in place across Europe as countries try to fight the rise in coronavirus cases. On Saturday, Vienna ordered a three-week lockdown starting on Tuesday in hopes of bringing case numbers under control before Christmas. Austria has one of Europe’s highest infection rates per capita; new cases hit a record of 9,586 on Friday -- nine times higher than it was during the peak of the first wave (Guardian). Residents must now stay at home all day with exceptions for shopping for essentials and exercise. Secondary schools have switched to remote learning, but primary schools and kindergartens are continuing in person. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said on Saturday when addressing the nation, "My urgent plea for the next four weeks is: meet nobody," and explained that "every social contact is one too many" (AP).

In Germany, residents have already been in a “lockdown light” since the beginning of November, but daily infections have continued to rise, hitting a record 23,452 cases on Friday (Reuters). Now, officials are set to meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel again on Monday to discuss extending the lockdown and perhaps even tightening restrictions, including closing some schools or at least modifying schedules for in-person learning. German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that the partial lockdown measures would likely last many more months, saying: "The infection figures are still too high. Much higher than two weeks ago…despite all efforts, a change for the better has not yet been achieved." Altmaier warned against a "yo-yo shutdown with constant opening and closing of the economy," and said that Germans might have to continue living under coronavirus restrictions for the next four to five months.

Greece has limited public gatherings to less than four people and closed schools as hospitals became overwhelmed by coronavirus cases (Guardian). On Saturday the government announced that primary schools, kindergartens, and daycare centers would be closed and that no public gatherings would be allowed. The restrictions come just ahead of the anniversary of the anti-junta demonstration, a celebratory time for many Greeks to remember the 1973 crackdown that is generally considered to have broken the junta’s grip on power and restored democracy in the country. This year, a fine of €5,000 will be issued to legal entities (like political parties) and €3,000 to individuals who organize gatherings.

In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating after being in close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid-19. The Daily Telegraph says the Prime Minister’s plans for a “reset” of his office have been thrown into “disarray.” A decision on a Brexit deal with the European Union is due as early as this week and a plan for bringing the country out of the national lockdown in two weeks’ time were two big ticket items on the prime minister’s agenda for this week that are now being called into question as he works in isolation. But a spokesperson from his office said: “The prime minister will follow the rules and is self-isolating. He will carry on working from Downing Street, including on leading the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. The PM is well and does not have any symptoms of Covid-19” (Guardian). The prime minister was hospitalized and treated for Covid-19 in April. The U.K. registered 24,962 new cases on Sunday and is currently in a national lockdown in hopes of bringing the case count under control (BBC). 

Americas

Mexico Surpasses One Million Confirmed Coronavirus Cases

On Saturday Mexico surpassed one million confirmed coronavirus cases since the beginning of the pandemic (Reuters). The official tally also includes 98,259 deaths. However, health officials have noted that the real number of both cases and deaths is likely significantly higher than the reported figures, as testing has been limited. 

Asia

India Struggles with Spike in Cases

India, and specifically the capital, Delhi, is struggling to contain a surge in new coronavirus cases combined with a rise in pollution levels. Experts warn that the virus coupled with the toxic air and dropping temperatures could be particularly deadly. Last week, Delhi had the highest number of cases seen anywhere in the country, adding thousands of cases every day -- hitting over 8,500 cases in a 24-hour period at one point. On Monday, the Health Ministry raised India’s total number of cases to more than 8.84 million (AP). Millions of people marked the festival of Diwali over the weekend, in spite of the rise in cases, and experts believe the gatherings will lead to an increase in cases in the weeks to come. On Sunday, Delhi authorities said the city would airlift medical professionals and procure more medical equipment, including adding 300 intensive care unit beds, in an effort to fight the rise in cases. Delhi's chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, said that testing would be ramped up from 60,000 per day to around 100,000 tests (BBC). India has the second-highest caseload in the world, after the United States. 

China’s New Testing Policy for Travelers Doesn’t Make Sense

China is now requiring all airline passengers to present a negative antibody test before boarding their flight, but scientists consider the test useless in efforts to curb disease transmission (NYT). The new policy, announced at the end of October, requires inbound travelers to have results of an antibody test, but the test is not reliable in ruling out infections and it also does not prove that the person isn’t transmitting the virus to others. As health experts learned more about the novel coronavirus, it became clear that the timing of the antibody response to the virus does not kick into gear until levels of the pathogen are waning, meaning that an antibody test is not reliable in detecting an active infection, especially at its early stages when the risk of infecting others is high. Health experts are criticizing the requirement, saying it adds an unnecessary step for travelers who are trying to make their way home without much added benefit, especially since China also requires a polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., test. That test can detect the virus even when it is present at very low levels in the body and is considered more reliable than the antibody tests. While requiring two different types of tests sounds like a sound plan in theory, China’s choice of the antibody test as the safety net doesn’t make much sense, according to health experts. 

Japan’s Economy Bounced Back, For Now

Japan’s economy, the third largest in the world, surged 5% in the July-to-September period after three quarters of contraction (WSJ). The rebound follows spurts of growth in the U.S. and China, the world’s largest and second-largest economies, respectively, after the initial downturn caused by the pandemic. Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at the Meiji Yasuda Research Institute urged caution, however, saying, “The rate of expansion is high, but the real economy is not as good as the numbers. It’s only about halfway recovered from its enormous fall” (NYT). Experts also believe that the economic recovery may be difficult to maintain through the winter months as the virus surges in Europe and the U.S. and begins reemerging in Japan; even though daily case counts have yet to pass the 2,000 mark cases are growing steadily in recent weeks.

China Reports Finding Coronavirus on Frozen Foods

Several Chinese provincial capitals reported over the weekend that they had detected Covid-19 on beef, tripe, and pork coming from Brazil, Bolivia, New Zealand, and Argentina (Reuters). China is increasing testing of imported frozen foods after previously detecting the virus on several other shipments. A positive finding triggers a temporary import ban, though the World Health Organization says the risk of catching Covid-19 from frozen foods is low. So far, more than 7,500 people who may have been exposed to the contaminated products have tested negative for the virus.

Bonus Read: “Governments Set to Show More Patience in Tackling Pandemic Debts,” (WSJ).

U.S. Government & Politics

Health Experts, Some Republican Governors Worry About Trump’s Stalling on Transition as Coronavirus Cases Surge

The Trump administration’s stalling on accepting Biden as the President Elect and starting a transition process drew criticism from health experts over the weekend as coronavirus cases continued to surge (Politico). On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN, “Of course it would be better” for the transition process to begin, adding, “That is obvious.” The stalled transition drew criticism as well from members of Biden’s advisory task force. “We are in a very dangerous period, the most dangerous public health period since 1918,” Dr. Michael Osterholm commented on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” According to Former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, co-chair of Biden’s advisory committee, the Trump administration has not yet shared its plans with the President Elect’s team. The Trump administration’s stalling also drew criticism from Ohio’s Republican Governor, Mike DeWine, who said that while Trump could legitimately pursue legal challenges, “we also need to begin that process.” Arkansas’ Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson similarly commented, “we want to make sure that there is a smooth transition, particularly when it comes to the vaccine distribution, the coronavirus, that everybody understands what we’re doing there and what the plan is for the future.” Meanwhile Biden’s choice to be his Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, called for better cooperation in the transition (WaPo). He told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” “Right now we have a crisis that’s getting worse,” adding, “We had never had a day with 100,000 cases in a single day until last week. By next week, we may see 200,000 cases in a single day.” Bonus Read: “Trump Tunes Out Pandemic Surge as he Focuses on Denying Election Loss,” (WaPo).

Biden Team: National Lockdown Would be Last Resort

On Sunday, Vivek Murphy, co-chair of Joe Biden’s coronavirus advisory committee and former Surgeon General told Fox News that a nationwide lockdown would be “a measure of last resort” (Politico). Murphy commented, “We have got to approach this with the position of a scalpel rather than the blunt force of an ax.” Dr. Michael Osterholm had previously floated a four to six week national lockdown but later said he had not discussed the matter with other members of the advisory team and walked back his comments. Bonus Read: “Businesses Brace for Mandatory Workplace Safety Rules Under Biden,” (Politico).

NY Governor Cuomo Threatens to Sue Trump Over Equitable Vaccine Distribution

On Sunday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo threatened to sue the Trump administration in an effort to ensure plans provide for equitable distribution of vaccines once they are developed (Politico). Cuomo stated, “The Trump administration is designing the distribution plan, and their plan basically has private health care companies administer the vaccines,” adding, “The president talks about CVS and Walgreens and national chains. Sure. But they are mainly located in rich communities, not in poor communities. My friends, we cannot compound the racial injustice that Covid has already created. And let me be clear — the Black and brown communities that were first on the list of who died cannot be last on the list of who receives the vaccines, period.” In the absence of changes, New York per the plan would join a lawsuit with the NAACP and the Urban League. Cuomo stated, “I tell you today, if the Trump administration does not change this plan and does not provide an equitable vaccine process we will enforce our legal rights, we will bring legal action to protect New Yorkers.”

Poll Workers Test Positive for Coronavirus, Election’s Overall Role Unclear

Dozens of poll workers have tested positive for coronavirus since election day, though it is unclear what role the election itself may have played and what it’s net impact on the virus’ path will be (Politico). At least two dozen poll workers tested positive in Missouri and there are also cases in New York, Iowa, Indiana, and Virginia. Politico cautions, “The infections cannot be tied definitively to polling places. Because Covid-19 is spreading rapidly in the U.S., there is no way to determine yet whether in-person voting on Election Day contributed to the surge, public health experts said.”

U.S. Economy

Pandemic Expands Acceptance of Digital Commerce

As a result of the pandemic, the role of digital commerce in American life is expanding (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “A recent survey by consulting firm McKinsey & Co. found that about three out of four people have tried a new shopping method due to the coronavirus and that more than half of all consumers intend to continue using curbside pickup and grocery-delivery services after the pandemic is over. Nearly 70% of consumers surveyed intend to continue buying online for store pickup.” McKinsey concluded that the changes in Americans’ purchasing practices would likely have taken a decade to occur in the absence of the pandemic. Bonus Read: "Coronavirus Surge Tests the Smallest Companies,” (WSJ).

Tyson Foods Prepares for Virus Surge

The meatpacking giant, Tyson Foods, is preparing to deal with the nation’s surging number of coronavirus cases, according to a report Sunday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal reports, “Tyson Foods Inc. is using infection-tracking algorithms and ongoing employee testing to shield workers at the biggest U.S. meatpacker from a fresh surge in coronavirus cases and keep grocery stores stocked, its chief executive said.” Dean Banks, the company’s CEO, also pointed to the addition of more space and dividers at workstations. Banks told the Journal, “Everyone is concerned about a second or third wave.” Meatpacking plants including those run by Tyson were hit hard in previous waves of the pandemic, sparking concern as cases are again surging across the nation. The CDC counted 16,000 meatpacking plant workers who caught the virus from the start of the pandemic through May. Disruptions in the supply line due to the effects of coronavirus also led to shortages at grocery stores while forcing some farmers to cull their livestock.

U.S. Society

Pandemic May Change Retirement for Americans

The pandemic may change how Americans retire, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The virus is bringing sweeping change, mainly by ‘accelerating developments already under way,’ says physician and entrepreneur Bill Thomas. For example, ‘isolation of older people has long been a problem, but Covid is focusing attention on the issue and adding urgency’ to address it.” Among those changes is a possible growth in people retiring in place. Greater regulatory attention in the wake of significant deaths at nursing homes along with the disruptive impact of the virus may force many retirement homes to shut down. However, at the same time, greater focus on ways for virtually connecting people stuck at home may benefit retirees. The pandemic may also be shortening peoples lifespans (both those who contract the disease and those who don’t as a result of disruptions to healthy practices), and disrupting people’s ability to save for retirement. The Journal also notes that people may change how they view their retirement accounts, increasingly using it for other purposes, and may lead to greater attention to planning for death as people consider the issue due to the virus’s impact. 

Bonus Reads: “How the Pandemic is Shifting Workplace Benefits: Prepaid Legal Plans, IT Help Desks for Kids,” (WaPo); “Masks, Coronavirus Tests and Dancer ‘Pods’: How the Washington Ballet Tackled its New Digital Season,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Ed Yong looks at the crisis facing healthcare systems around the country and the effect the surge in coronavirus cases is having on nurses and doctors (Atlantic). 

Tom Siestama writes on lessons for eating out in the cold from Alaska, Scandinavia, and the South Pole (WaPo).

The New York Times editorial board writes that there are ways the U.S. can avoid the worst of the new surge in coronavirus cases (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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