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March 22, 2021 - Brief Issue 171

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Ramps Up Its Vaccination Efforts (Health & Science)

Brazilian P.1 Variant Pops Up in NYC (Health & Science)

European Medicines Agency Declares AstraZeneca Safe, Despite Rare Blood Clotting (Health & Science)

Study Finds Covid-19 Circulated in China Months Before Outbreak (Health & Science)

Flu Shots Reduce Risk of Contracting Covid-19 (Health & Science)

Global Outcry Grows Over Drug Monopolies (Around the World)

Nigerians’ Deep Distrust of Pfizer Could Harm Vaccination Efforts (Around the World)

As India Battles Another Wave, Vaccine Campaign Could Disrupt Global Supply (Around the World)

U.K. Sets Daily Vaccination Record (Around the World)

Palestinians Expand Vaccination Campaign After COVAX Shipment (Around the World)

Covid Outbreak Partially Closes Mar-a-Lago (U.S. Government & Politics)

Teachers’ Union Expresses Concern Over Three-Foot CDC Guidelines (U.S. Government & Politics)

Stimulus Checks Drive Stock Buying Spree (U.S. Economy)

Housing Market Drives an Influx of New Realtors into Competitive Field (U.S. Economy)

Nationwide Protests Against Anti-Asian Racism (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,819,107 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 542,359 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 381,190,995 tests and distributed 156,734,555 vaccine doses, with 124,481,412 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 123,247,535 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,716,275 deaths. At least 69,850,542 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. Ramps Up Its Vaccination Efforts

As vaccine production and distribution become more streamlined, the U.S. is expected to get 76 million people fully vaccinated in March, 75 million in April, and 89 million more in May (WSJ). About 2.5 million people are vaccinated daily, five times the rate in January. 

Major vaccine manufacturers – Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson – have optimized their production efforts, after limited initial supplies and a rocky start. Moderna of Cambridge, MA took three months to make its first 20 million doses, but after smoothing out kinks in its supply chain and speeding up vaccine inspection and packaging, Modern now makes about 40 million shots per month for U.S. markets. Pfizer of New York produces 13 million vaccines a week, more than twice its rate in February. The company started recycling filters needed for vaccine production, began producing a key raw material in its own factories, and has expanded factory resources in Michigan. Johnson & Johnson – whose vaccine was most recently approved – is expected to ramp up its vaccine output, as well. 

As of Sunday, 24.5% of the total U.S. population had received at least one dose of the vaccine and 13.3% were fully vaccinated, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported (NYT). 

Brazilian P.1 Variant Pops Up in NYC

New York reported its first case of the Brazilian P.1 coronavirus variant, in an elderly Brooklyn resident with no travel history, on Saturday (NYT). At least 48 cases of the highly contagious variant have been reported across the U.S, the majority of them in Florida. Experts are concerned about the P.1 variant because it shares some structural similarities with the South African B.1.351 variant – known to lessen the effectiveness of vaccines – and is more likely to reinfect those already recovered from Covid-19. “The detection of the Brazilian variant here in New York further underscores the importance of taking all the appropriate steps to continue to protect your health,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said.

On Sunday, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb said while a fourth wave of Covid-19 is unlikely, new variants that can reinfect recovered patients and evade vaccines pose a threat to the country’s success against the virus (CNN). 

European Medicines Agency Declares AstraZeneca Safe, Despite Rare Blood Clotting

The European Medicines Agency declared Thursday that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, which lost traction in Europe after reports of blood clots, is “safe and effective” (Science News, WaPo, Reuters). At least a dozen countries will resume use of the shot, and EMA will continue monitoring the situation. 

Despite this announcement, skepticism may follow the AstraZeneca shot as vaccinations pick back up. French Health Minister Olivier Véran said the country’s health advisory body would only recommend the vaccine to people 55 and older, due to the age range of patients in which blood clots were reported. Following EMA’s announcement, researchers in both Germany and Norway found that in very rare cases, the vaccine can in fact trigger an immune response that leads to platelet clotting (WaPo). Germany’s medical regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, said this clotting reaction should be treated with an infusion of intravenous immunoglobulins to neutralize the immune response. So far, Germany has identified only 13 cases of clotting out of 1.6 million AstraZeneca recipients. Almost all of those cases occurred in women. 

Study Finds Covid-19 Circulated in China Months Before Outbreak

A study published in Science estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was likely circulating near Wuhan, China about two months before the first recorded case in humans (Science Daily). Based at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine, the researchers used a computational model and molecular dating techniques to place the emergence of the virus in the Hubei province during mid-October 2019 at the earliest. Though the first outbreak occurred at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in December 2019, the earliest recorded Covid-19 cases were actually unrelated to this location. 

Senior author Dr. Joel Wertheim said his team’s computational model predicted very low levels of viral circulation in China before December 2019. "Given that, it's hard to reconcile these low levels of virus in China with claims of infections in Europe and the U.S. at the same time," Wertheim said. "I am quite skeptical of claims of COVID-19 outside China at that time."

Wertheim also said that, surprisingly, two out of three simulated epidemics died out on their own. This suggests that humans encounter zoonotic – or, animal-to-human – viruses like SARS-CoV-2 all the time, but only occasionally does a pathogen explode into a pandemic. 

Flu Shots Reduce Risk of Contracting Covid-19

A study published in the American Journal of Infection Control suggests that the flu shot lowers the risk of contracting Covid-19 by 24%. Researchers based at the University of Michigan surveyed over 27,000 patients; those who had received their flu shot were significantly less likely to test positive for Covid-19, independent of other risk factors like BMI and smoking (U of M). Moreover, those who had a flu shot and tested positive for Covid-19 were less likely to experience severe complications from the virus. 

Senior author Dr. Marion Hofmann Bowman said she hopes her team’s data will help combat misinformation associating the flu vaccine with Covid-19 infections (these claims have already been debunked) (Reuters). It’s still unclear whether people who get the flu vaccine are just more Covid-cautious, or if the flu vaccine actually primes the immune system to better fight off the coronavirus. No matter what, Hofmann said, she hopes the study will help assuage vaccine skepticism. 

Bonus Reads: “Has COVID Peaked? Maybe, But It’s Too Soon to Be Sure,” (Nature); “Five Reasons Why COVID Herd Immunity is Probably Impossible,” (Nature). 

Around the World

Global Outcry Grows Over Drug Monopolies

An immunization gap between rich and poor countries is growing but drug companies have rebuffed calls to share proprietary information and technology with companies in developing nations. Residents of wealthy and middle-income countries have received about 90% of the nearly 400 million vaccines delivered so far (WaPo). Under current projections, many of the rest will have to wait years to vaccinate residents. Now, a growing chorus of health officials and advocacy groups worldwide are calling for Western governments to use aggressive powers to force companies to publish vaccine recipes and manufacturing processes. In the U.S., a patent is expected to be issued by the end of this month on an invention in a National Institutes of Health lab that swaps a pair of amino acids in the coronavirus spike protein, a process that is at the heart of at least five major Covid-19 vaccines. The government will control that patent and as such, would have leverage over drug companies to force them to expand access to developing nations (NYT). As the Washington Post writes, “The fights over vaccine supply are not just over a moral duty of Western nations to prevent deaths and illness overseas. Lack of supply and lopsided distribution threaten to leave entire continents open as breeding grounds for coronavirus mutations. Those variants, if they prove resistant to vaccines, could spread anywhere in the world, including in Western countries that have been vaccinated first.”

Africa

Nigerians’ Deep Distrust of Pfizer Could Harm Vaccination Efforts

Many Nigerians have a deep distrust of foreign-made medicine because of a history of clinical trials and medical experimentation in Africa. For example, in 1996, Pfizer pledged to fight a meningitis epidemic in West Africa while testing a new drug, but instead of stopping the outbreak, eleven children died in a clinical trial. Families of the children and the government in the city of Kano received millions of dollars in a lawsuit settlement. Now, that memory looms over the coronavirus vaccine rollout and health officials say fears of the vaccine could undermine efforts to end the pandemic. According to the Washington Post, “A recent survey by the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of 15,000 people across 15 African nations found that 79 percent would take a coronavirus vaccine if it were safe — but a quarter thought it would be unsafe. The Nigerians polled were slightly more reluctant to accept a shot at 76 percent. An Afrobarometer survey of neighboring countries — Benin, Liberia, Senegal, Niger and Togo — uncovered a far less optimistic outlook: Just 4 in 10 said they’d probably try to get vaccinated, according to the early March findings.” Nigeria has deployed teams of public health educators to meet with religious leaders, village chiefs, shop owners, and other local leaders in hopes of gaining their help in swaying communities. “We cannot just dismiss the skepticism,” said Faisal Shuaib, head of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency, which is in charge of the rollout. “We have to recognize that people have their own concerns. We need to listen to them, and then we have to do the extra work that is required.”

Asia 

As India Battles Another Wave, Vaccine Campaign Could Disrupt Global Supply

The state of Maharashtra is leading the country into a second wave of coronavirus infections even as entire districts of the state have gone back into lockdown. Confirmed infections in India have risen to about 31,600 per day and deaths shot up 82% over a recent two week period (NYT). Officials are under pressure from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ramp up testing and vaccinations, especially in Mumbai, the country’s financial hub. The vaccination campaign could affect supply around the world as the Serum Institute of India, a pharmaceutical company that manufactures the AstraZeneca vaccine, must adjust its exports based on domestic demand. India has given away or sold tens of millions of doses to other countries even as it struggles to vaccinate its own population. Last week, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that a drop in Britain’s Covid-19 vaccine supply was due to a delay in delivery of five million doses that were being manufactured in India. 

Europe

U.K. Sets Daily Vaccination Record

On Saturday, a daily record of 844,285 Covid-19 vaccine doses were administered in the U.K. thanks to what Health Secretary Matt Hancock called a “mammoth team effort” (Reuters). More than 27.6 million people, over half the adult population, have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and some 2.2 million have received both doses. On Sunday, the U.K. recorded 33 new deaths due to the virus, the lowest figure since October, and new infections were also down, with 5,312 cases reported. 

Italian Parents, Children Protest School Closures

Thousands of Italian parents, children, and teachers gathered to protest in squares around the country on Sunday against the closure of schools due to Covid-19. The protests were held in more than 35 squares, including Rome’s Piazza del Popolo and Milan’s central Piazza Duomo, and were the first of any significance since Mario Draghi’s national unity government took office last month. “We are asking for one thing: that our schools be given the status of essential public services and immediately reopened,” the Rome arm of the “Open Schools” national network that organized the demonstrations said in a statement (Reuters). Schools have been switching between in-person and remote learning for the past year, with the latest closure starting on March 15. 

Middle East

Palestinians Expand Vaccination Campaign After COVAX Shipment

The Palestinian Health Ministry administered the first does of coronavirus vaccines it received from the global COVAX initiative on Sunday, focusing on healthcare workers and older residents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. COVAX, an initiative led by the World Health Organization to ensure equitable access to vaccines, delivered 61,400 vaccines to the Palestinian Authority on Wednesday and 21,300 were shipped to the blockaded, Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip (AP). Infections have been surging in the West Bank in recent weeks and until now the Palestinian Authority had only secured 10,000 doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine and 2,000 doses from Israel -- not enough to cover the roughly 3 million Palestinians living there.

U.S. Government & Politics

Covid Outbreak Partially Closes Mar-a-Lago

Former President Trump’s Florida club Mar-a-Lago has partially closed due to a Covid outbreak (Politico). Politico writes, “That’s according to several people familiar with the situation, including a club member who received a phone call about the closure Friday. A receptionist at the Mar-a-Lago club confirmed the news, saying it was closed until further notice, but declined to comment further.” Trump has been living at Mar-a-Lago since leaving Washington, D.C.

Teachers’ Union Expresses Concern Over Three-Foot CDC Guidelines

In light of new evidence, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has revised its guidance that students and staff should remain six feet apart, declaring three feet to be sufficient to prevent the spread of Covid-19 (NYT, WaPo). A recent study published in Clinical Infectious Diseases found that three feet of social distancing does not significantly increase coronavirus infection rates in schools.

CDC director Rochelle Walensky said a switch to three-foot distancing could allow more students to return to school in-person. But the American Federation of Teachers, a national union, is skeptical. Randi Weingarten, the union’s president, said the CDC shouldn’t rush to loosen its safety measures simply to get more kids in the classroom. “All of a sudden, because we can’t squeeze in every single kid if it’s six feet, that miraculously there’s now studies that say three feet are fine,” Weingarten said. “And what’s going to happen is, people are just not going to trust it.” The president of another major teacher’s union, the National Educational Association, said that more research into distancing guidelines is needed. 

U.S. Economy

Stimulus Checks Drive Stock Buying Spree

The distribution of stimulus checks as part of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package recently signed into law is helping drive a stock buying spree, the New York Times reports (NYT). The Times reports, “Analysts at Deutsche Bank recently estimated that as much as $170 billion from the latest round of stimulus payments could flow into the stock market. They conducted a survey of retail traders in which respondents said they planned to put roughly 40 percent of any payment they received — or $2 of every $5 — into the stock market. Traders between the ages of 25 and 34 said they expected to put half of their stimulus check into stocks.” Abraham Sanchez, a 28-year-old trumpet player, told the Times how he used all but $200 of his check when it arrived, putting it mostly into AMC theaters stock as the chain reopened its cinemas across California. Mr. Sanchez told the Times, “I was like: ‘You know what? Whatever. I’ll give it a shot.” The Times writes, “Mr. Sanchez gained $170 on paper. ‘It was kind of nice,’ he said. The shares have since fallen, but he’s still sitting on a paper profit of about $120 and doesn’t plan to sell. Mr. Sanchez is by no means wealthy. While the pandemic halved what he used to make from his gig in a brass band, he gets by because of his day job as a store manager. He worries that the pandemic might flare up again, or cost him his job. But Mr. Sanchez, who lives with three roommates, didn’t need the stimulus money to make ends meet. So he was willing to gamble.” The Times points out, “For a decade before the pandemic, small investors accounted for roughly a tenth of trading activity in the stock market. But in the last year, they have become responsible for close to a quarter, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.”

Housing Market Drives an Influx of New Realtors into Competitive Field

The hot housing market that has emerged amid the pandemic is helping drive an influx of people into the real estate agent profession (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The red-hot housing market has achieved a number of milestones this past year. Perhaps the most telling is this: There are more real-estate agents than homes for sale in the U.S.” However, many of these new realtors are finding it a competitive field. Michael Mitchell, who got his realtor license after being furloughed from a managerial role at a restaurant chain, told the Journal that despite getting his license in October, he has not gotten any clients yet and that the effort is also complicated by people’s hesitancy to meet in person. He stated, “I’ve learned some aspects of the business, but it’s hard to connect with people…that you’ve never met.” According to the National Realtors Association, its membership rolls only surpassed the number of homes for sale once briefly in December 2019. The Journal notes that currently that has been the case since October. Bonus Read: “Buying a Home in the Pandemic? Family Members Team Up on Bids,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “A Year Without Student-Loan Payments,” (WSJ).

Nationwide Protests Against Anti-Asian Racism 

Over the weekend, protests and rallies across the nation called for an end to anti-Asian hate and racism (Politico, WSJ, WaPo, NYT). The rallies followed the shootings at massage parlors and spas in Atlanta, Georgia that killed eight people, six of whom were Asian women. However, the rallies also come after a year in which law enforcement in multiple cities as well as non-governmental organizations have tracked a rise in anti-Asian hate crimes with some pointing to the potential role of racist portrayals of the pandemic’s origins as playing an important part. Hundreds rallied at the state capitol in Georgia as part of the protests. Senator Raphael Warnock, Georgia’s new Democratic Senator, stopped by the rally to say, “I just wanted to drop by to say to my Asian sisters and brothers, we see you, and, more importantly, we are going to stand with you.” At an Atlanta park, ralliers chanted, “Stop Asian hate” and “We are what America looks like.” One organizer, Frankie Laguna, told the crowd, “I’m sick of being belittled and hypersexualized and hated for who I am, for something I can’t change.” Bonus Read: “Atlanta Spa Shooting Victims Highlight Struggles for Asian and Asian American Immigrant Women in Low-Wage Jobs,” (WaPo).

Americans Looking to Travel, But Face Challenges

Americans are increasingly looking to travel, yet the Wall Street Journal reports that travel remains complicated (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Signs that consumers are ready to travel again are growing, with rising searches for airfares and activity on booking sites. Travel companies are providing tools to help make sense of restrictions and spur bookings, but a hazy outlook for international trips suggests domestic destinations will see the strongest demand.” Market-research firm AirDNA found that listings on AirBnB and Vrbo are at their highest level since the firm started tracking in 2015. However, the Journal notes that while Americans are looking to travel, “figuring out where they can go, and what will be open when they get there, remains tricky—for both would-be tourists and travel companies.” Bonus Read: “Covid-19: Police Shut Down Late-Night Spring Break Parties in Miami,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

President and CEO of the Chicago Community Trust and New America Chair Helene Gayle, New America CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Gordon LaForge make the case for the United States leading the way in vaccinating the world (Foreign Affairs).

Melissa Dribben writes on the importance of recognizing the pandemic’s impact on the families of health workers, not just the workers themselves (WaPo).

Katherine J. Wu urges people not to over-emphasize the possibility of cases of vaccinated people becoming infected with Covid (Atlantic).

Adam Gopnik writes on the creativity apparent in efforts to enable outdoor dining (New Yorker).

Felipe De La Hoz writes on the feeble pandemic protections in Texas prisons (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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