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June 17, 2021 - Brief Issue 215

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. CDC Now Says Delta Variant a “Variant of Concern” (Health & Science)

CureVac’s mRNA Vaccine Shows Low Efficacy Level in Clinical Trial (Health & Science)

70% of New Yorkers Have Had One Vaccine Dose, and the State is Reopening (Health & Science)

Europe to Open to Americans, Say Officials (Around the World)

India Investigates Fake Coronavirus Tests (Around the World)

Taiwan Claims China Still Blocking Access to German-Made Vaccines (Around the World)

Calls Grow for Investigative Commission on the Pandemic (U.S. Government & Politics)

Following Meeting, Federal Reserve Suggests it May Raise Rates by End of 2023  (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 33,498,506 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 177,043,245 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 375,186,675 vaccine doses, with 52.7% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 44.1% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 177,043,245 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,833,075 deaths.

U.S. CDC Now Says Delta Variant a “Variant of Concern”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now designates the Delta variant of the coronavirus a “variant of concern,” meaning scientists believe it is more transmissible or can cause more severe disease. The designation also means that vaccines, treatments, and tests that detect the virus might also be less effective. The delta variant was considered to be a variant of interest to the CDC, but now says it shows “increased transmissibility, potential reduction in neutralization by some monoclonal antibody treatments under emergency authorization and potential reduction in neutralization from sera after vaccination in lab tests,” according to CNN. The CDC estimates that the Delta variant now accounts for 9.9% of new cases in the U.S. as of June 5. The World Health Organization classified the Delta variant as a variant of concern on May 10. 

CureVac’s mRNA Vaccine Shows Low Efficacy Level in Clinical Trial

The German company CureVac reported disappointing preliminary results on Wednesday from its clinical trial of a Covid-19 vaccine. The trial showed that the company’s mRNA vaccine had an efficacy rate of just 47%, one of the lowest reported so far from any Covid vaccine maker. The trial, which included 40,000 volunteers in Latin America and Europe, will continue as researchers monitor for new cases of Covid and researchers expect to report a final analysis in two to three weeks. “We’re going to full speed for the final readout,” Franz-Werner Haas, CureVac’s chief executive, said in an interview. “We are still planning for filing for approval” (NYT). CureVac plans to apply for approval to the European Medicines Agency. The European Union reached an agreement last year to purchase 405 million doses of CureVac’s vaccine if the agency authorizes it.

Bonus Read: “Inside Pfizer’s race to produce the world’s biggest supply of covid vaccine,” (WaPo).

70% of New Yorkers Have Had One Vaccine Dose, and the State is Reopening

On Tuesday, New York’s Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo lifted the state’s coronavirus restrictions as the state passed the benchmark of having at least 70 percent of its population vaccinated with at least one shot (CNN, NYT). As with California’s reopening, also on Tuesday which we covered yesterday, some specific restrictions including mask requirements on public transit will continue but the vast majority of restrictions have been lifted. CNN writes, “Cuomo noted that at one point, his state had a Covid-19 positivity rate of 48.16% -- once the highest positivity rate in the world. The governor said the positivity rate is now 0.40% -- the lowest rate in the country, according to Johns Hopkins University.”

Around the World

Europe to Open to Americans, Say Officials 

Restrictions on travel to Europe from the United States are set to be eased after EU ambassadors agreed on expanding the current list of approved countries to include the U.S., North Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Taiwan, and Lebanon (Politico). The formal sign-off, and announcement, is expected by the end of this week. But even if the U.S. and other countries are added to the official approved travel list, individual nations could decide whether to reopen or how to tailor travel measures further; for example, they could require PCR tests and quarantine. Allowing Americans to enter the bloc would be a boon for the struggling economies of member states as the summer tourism season kicks off. Some countries that rely heavily on tourism, like Spain and Greece, have already reopened to external travelers (WSJ). Germany also lifted more restrictions this month and announced it would remove a travel warning for locations with low infection rates starting July 1. The EU is finalizing a Covid certificate system that is supposed to be in place on July 1 (NYT).

India Investigates Fake Coronavirus Tests

Indian authorities are investigating reports of private agencies faking coronavirus test results after a government report concluded that some agencies responsible for coronavirus testing on pilgrims at a Hindu festival forged at least 100,000 results (NYT). The festival, Kumbh Mela, ran throughout April and is widely believed to be responsible for a surge in coronavirus cases throughout the country as pilgrims returned from the festival carrying the virus with them to their villages. “We have constituted a four-members committee that will submit its report in two weeks,” Dr. Arjun Singh Sengar, a Haridwar health officer who was in charge of testing for Kumbh Mela, said in an interview. “Initial investigations are pointing toward lapses and fake results.” Dr. Sengar said that out of 251,000 tests in his district, only 2,273 were positive. But health experts questioned the veracity of those results, saying the state underreported positive cases to give the impression that it was safe for pilgrims to attend the festival. Then, in spite of warnings by public health experts, the regional government advertised the festival in newspapers to invite pilgrims from across the country. A government report found that the lab that conducted rapid antigen tests during the festival falsified at least 100,000 of the 400,000 tests. 

Taiwan Claims China Still Blocking Access to German-Made Vaccines

Taiwan has been trying for months to purchase doses of the German-made BioNTech coronavirus vaccine without success and its leaders have again blamed “Chinese intervention” for preventing them from securing the doses. China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, says the accusations are “fabricated out of nothing.” The New York Times writes, “the crux of the problem is that a Chinese company claims the exclusive commercial rights to distribute BioNTech’s vaccine in Taiwan. And for many people in the self-governing democracy, buying shots from a mainland Chinese business is simply unpalatable.” Last year, BioNTech teamed up with a Shanghai company, Fosun Pharma, to distribute its vaccine in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. China says Taiwan is trying to circumvent this arrangement by buying doses directly from BioNTech. As a result of the impasse, Taiwan is experiencing a vaccine shortage alongside the island’s first major outbreak since the start of the pandemic. Fewer than 5% of the island’s 23.5 million people have been vaccinated so far.

U.S. Government & Politics

Calls Grow for Investigative Commission on the Pandemic

The New York Times reports that calls are growing for an investigative commission to examine the pandemic and the United States’ policy response, potentially modeled on the 9/11 Commission (NYT). The Times writes, “Bipartisan bills have been introduced in both the House and the Senate, and have the backing of three former homeland security secretaries — two Republicans and a Democrat — as well as health groups and victims and their families.” While proposals for such a commission regarding the riot and events of January 6 at the Capitol have floundered, the calls for such a commission on the pandemic have not yet evoked a strong partisan split in support. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) states, “If I can get past what I consider to be the biggest hurdle, which is not to have this viewed through a partisan political lens, then I think there should be strong support for it moving forward.” Of potential relevance, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has committed to an inquiry in the U.K. that would involve comments under oath. The Times traces much of the effort in the U.S. to “a telephone call in October from Eric Schmidt, the philanthropist and former chief executive of Google, to Philip D. Zelikow, who was the executive director of the commission that investigated Sept. 11. Mr. Schmidt urged Mr. Zelikow to put together a proposal to examine the pandemic, which has caused nearly 600,000 deaths in the United States alone.”

Trump’s Search for Evidence of Lab Leak Origin Did Not Turn Up a Smoking Gun

On Tuesday, the Washington Post published an article reporting on the multiple attempts to examine the possibility of a lab-leak origin for the coronavirus and their failure to provide strong evidence of such an origin under the Trump administration (WaPo). The Post’s article is based on interviews with 28 experts and current and former officials. Anthony Ruggiero, the NSC senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense in the Trump administration, told the Post, “We never got to a smoking gun, which perhaps most people are focused on,” adding, “We were trying to do an all-source review of the information that’s out there and trying to do it in the most honest way possible, which is you start with some theories or hypotheses and then see where the information takes you.” A former senior official who worked closely with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo told the Post, “He wanted a smoking gun, and we couldn’t give it to him.” Some of the people interviewed expressed concern about politicization, particularly noting Trump’s comments regarding the lab-leak origin theory. Some also expressed concern that the political context may have hampered and delayed the effort to evaluate the lab-leak theory fairly.

U.S. Economy

Following Meeting, Federal Reserve Suggests it May Raise Rates by end of 2023

Following a two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve released projections suggesting that they will raise interest rates by the end of 2023 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Federal Reserve officials signaled they expect to raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the economy recovers rapidly from the effects of the pandemic and inflation heats up. Their median projection showed they anticipate lifting their benchmark rate to 0.6% from near zero by the end of 2023. In March they had expected to hold it steady through that year.” The Journal notes, “13 of 18 officials indicated they expect to lift short-term rates by the end of 2023, up from seven who expected that outcome in March.” The Fed has kept overnight interest rates stable since March 2020 as part of its effort to help the economy recover from the pandemic’s impact.

Survey: Despite Pandemic, Private Equity Pay Rose in 2020

On Wednesday, by Heidrick & Struggles International Inc., an executive recruiting and consulting firm for private equity, released a report showing that pay in private equity rose even amid the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “About 57% of survey respondents reported an increase in base compensation last year from 2019, and 67% reported receiving a higher annual bonus. Just 1% reported their base salary had declined, while 8% got lower bonuses. More than half of professionals surveyed say they expect an increase in base pay in 2021, with another 45% saying their base pay has held steady this year compared with 2020.”

Bonus Reads: “The U.S. Averted One Housing Crisis, but Another Is in the Wings,” (NYT); “U.S. Housing Market Needs 5.5 Million More Units, Says New Report,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Paul Abowd provides a video report on the global vaccine divide (Intercept).

Lelac AlMagor argues that remote learning ended up being a disgraceful failure (NYT).

Spencer Bokat-Lindell urges people to stop saying “post-pandemic” (NYT).

Matt Fuchs reports on what athletes are saying about how to make an athletic comeback after the pandemic (WaPo).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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