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May 25, 2021 - Brief Issue 203

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

WHO Wants 10% of All Countries’ Populations Vaccinated Against Covid-19 By September (Health & Science)

Chinese Health Officials Push High-Risk Individuals to Get Third Covid-19 Shot, Citing Short-Lasting Protection (Health & Science)

Amid Global Push for Thorough Investigation Into Covid-19’s Origins, U.S. Intelligence Report May Lend Weight to Lab Leak Theory (Health & Science)

Variant First Discovered in India Spreading Fast in Britain (Around the World)

Fresh Outbreak in Melbourne Brings Back Masks, Distancing (Around the World)

Japan Sees No Impact on Olympics from U.S. Travel Advisory (Around the World)

Delhi Officials Mull Lifting Covid Limits Despite Vaccine Shortage (Around the World)

Taiwan Awaits Millions of Vaccine Doses as Alert Level Extended (Around the World)

Biden Administration Seeks to Make Pandemic-Era Remote Work Arrangements Permanent (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York City Schools Will Be Fully In-Person in the Fall (U.S. Government & Politics)

Vaccinated Americans Are Not Yet Driving Economic Recovery (U.S. Economy)

Warehouses Turn to Robots to Help with Labor Gaps (U.S. Economy)

Manhattan Apartment Vacancy Rate Remains High (U.S. Society)

Las Vegas Casinos Seek to Boost Vaccination as June 1 Reopening Approaches (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,144,178 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 590,697 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 286,890,900 vaccine doses, with 49.4% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 39.3% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 167,367,952 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,475,201 deaths.

WHO Wants 10% of All Countries’ Populations Vaccinated Against Covid-19 By September

Speaking Monday at the World Health Assembly in Geneva, World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus encouraged WHO member states to push for at least 10% of every country’s population to be vaccinated by September (WaPo). “The ongoing vaccine crisis is a scandalous inequity that’s perpetuating the [Covid-19] pandemic,” Tedros said. He explained the WHO aims to have 250 million people in low- and middle-income countries vaccinated by this deadline, including every health care worker. Tedros also encouraged wealthier countries to donate extra doses to COVAX, the WHO’s equitable vaccine distribution program, which has already given 72 million doses to 125 countries. “We need every country that receives vaccines to use them as quickly as possible,” he said. “The bottom line is that we need a lot more doses. We need them fast.”

Chinese Health Officials Push High-Risk Individuals to Get Third Covid-19 Shot, Citing Short-Lasting Protection 

Chinese health officials are encouraging high-risk people to take a third dose of the coronavirus vaccine, suggesting that the efficacy of the vaccines used in China decreases after six months (WaPo). In April, the director of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, George Gao, admitted that the protectiveness offered by the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine was “not high,” though his statements were quickly censored. The country now appears to be administering third doses of the vaccine. Meanwhile, in the U.S., American health officials and vaccine producers are discussing the timeline of future booster doses (CNN). 

Amid Global Push for Thorough Investigation Into Covid-19’s Origins, U.S. Intelligence Report May Lend Weight to Lab Leak Theory

As the World Health Organization launches its annual assembly, a freshly disclosed U.S. intelligence report suggests that three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China fell ill in November 2019 and sought medical care, adding urgency to the investigation of whether SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from the Wuhan lab (WSJ). Though many dismiss the “lab leak” hypothesis as a Trump-backed conspiracy theory, it is still under consideration by some experts, including members of the Biden administration – which has clarified that it’s not yet discarding any theories regarding the origins of the virus. The first known cases of Covid-19 began circulating in Wuhan in late 2019; China has denied that the virus originated from a lab, and the Wuhan Institute hasn’t disclosed lab data.

Covid-19 Hit Undocumented Women in NYC Particularly Hard, Report Estimates

The Fiscal Policy Institute has estimated that around 35,000 undocumented women in New York City faced food insecurity as of March 2021, reflecting the heavy toll the pandemic has taken on this population (NYT). “Prior to the pandemic, there were roughly 60,000 undocumented women living below the city’s poverty line,” the Fiscal Policy Institute wrote in its report. “This is undoubtedly higher today, as undocumented families face job loss and economic hardship.” Not only were undocumented workers ineligible for unemployment and stimulus checks, but women tend to take on the brunt of household burdens. New York recently approved a relief fund for “excluded workers,” like undocumented people, which the Fiscal Policy Institute says will benefit undocumented women who are able to apply for and access the support. 

Drugs for Mild and Early Covid-19 Cases Are Lacking, Concerning Experts

Though the Biden administration has committed billions to the development of Covid-19 treatments, a major U.S. health agency stopped looking into new therapies for early or mild Covid-19, threatening efforts to fully quash the virus (Politico). The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, a U.S. Health Department agency dedicated to funding medical countermeasures, said in May that it would stop reviewing new treatments due to financial concerns. BARDA will keep funding nine projects focused on treating severe Covid-19; only one of its projects is directed at more mild cases. With most federal funding directed toward vaccines and treatments for serious Covid-19 cases, experts say there are few treatment options for early Covid-19, making it difficult to eradicate the virus. “The virus is not going to be eliminated and is now with us forever,” said virologist Nigel McMillan of Griffith University in Australia. Health experts hope for a targeted antiviral pill that can stamp out early cases of Covid-19, though developing a drug this specific takes time. “We're really putting in a considerable amount of resources in the same approach that we took to the direct acting, antiviral, targeted development of drugs that we did with HIV,” said chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci. 

Former FDA Official Says Kids Should Keep Masking Inside Classrooms, At Least For Now

Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Sunday that parents of kids under 12 – an age group unlikely to be eligible for the coronavirus vaccine for months – should use their judgement when it comes to making mask-related decisions for their children (WaPo). Following federal health officials’ recent announcement that vaccinated people can begin unmasking in many situations, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be releasing updated public health guidance for schools and summer camps. Gottlieb said for crowded indoor classrooms, though, it would be “reasonable” for kids to keep masking for the time being. He said unvaccinated and high-risk adults should be similarly cautious with masking, which, he noted, has become more socially accepted due to the pandemic. “I think it’s an environment right now where we’re not going to rely necessarily on public health ordinances and mandates from governors and mayors to protect us,” Gottlieb said. “But we’re going to have to protect ourselves based on our own assessment of our risk and our own comfort.” Vaccination rates are continuing to climb among American adults, with at least 50% of adults vaccinated in 25 U.S. states (NPR). 

Bonus Read: “Biden and Fauci Field Questions on Vaccine Hesitancy From YouTube Influencers,” (NYT). 

Around the World

Europe

Variant First Discovered in India Spreading Fast in Britain

A new variant of the coronavirus has begun to overtake other strains of the virus in Britain, highlighting the dangers of a faltering global vaccine effort and pressuring the U.K. government to shorten the wait time between vaccine doses. The new variant, known as B.1.617.2, is now dominant in India after first being detected there in December and is now present in 49 countries (NYT). British scientists say it is “highly likely” to be more transmissible than previously discovered strains. While the new strain has not caused an overall surge in cases in Britain yet, thanks in large part to the successful vaccination campaign in the country, it could be more dangerous for other nations that are already grappling with high case counts of other variants. In Britain, four out of every five people above the age of 65 have been fully vaccinated, which has led to a decrease in hospitalizations and deaths. And a new study by Public Health England found signs that fully vaccinated people were protected from the variant. According to the New York Times, “The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine offered 88 percent protection against the variant first sampled in India, only a slight drop from the 93 percent protection given against the variant from Britain, Public Health England said. The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine was 60 percent effective against the variant from India, compared with 66 percent against the one first seen in Britain.”

Australia

Fresh Outbreak in Melbourne Brings Back Masks, Distancing

Australia’s second largest city, Melbourne, reinstated restrictions on Tuesday after a small cluster of cases was discovered and authorities became concerned that it could spark a larger outbreak. Authorities are trying to find the missing link in the cluster, which has grown to nine cases in just two days. The state of Victoria has imposed social restrictions, made face masks mandatory in hotels, restaurants, and indoor venues. Thousands of people must self-isolate and undergo Covid-19 testing after health alerts were issued for several sites, including one of the largest shopping centers in the country, after one of the people who was infected told authorities he visited the venue. Health officials say more positive cases will occur over the next few days. "There are right now millions of Victorians that are eligible to be vaccinated. They shouldn't wait for tomorrow, they shouldn't wait for next week. They should move now and get vaccinated," James Merlino, Victoria state's acting premier, told reporters in Melbourne (Reuters). According to Reuters, “All cases belong to one extended family across different households and could be traced back to the variant found in an overseas traveller who returned to Melbourne early this month after completing quarantine in the city of Adelaide. Authorities, however, said they could not yet find how the latest cases contracted the virus from the overseas traveller." The new outbreak prompted New Zealand to pause its travel bubble with Australia for three days.

Asia

Japan Sees No Impact on Olympics from U.S. Travel Advisory

Japanese officials said on Tuesday that they did not expect any negative impact from a U.S. advisory on travel to Japan due to coronavirus concerns for the Tokyo Olympics, which will start on July 23. The guidance, issued by the U.S. State Department on Monday, did not mention the Olympics specifically but warned against visiting the country. "At present, we can see no particular impact," Olympic Minister Tamayo Marukawa told a news conference. “She noted that the advisory did not ban essential travel and the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee had said planned mitigation practices would allow for safe participation of Team USA athletes,” writes Reuters. Australia has also advised against travel to Japan. 

Delhi Officials Mull Lifting Covid Limits Despite Vaccine Shortage 

Authorities in Delhi are considering relaxing current Covid-19 restrictions just six weeks after a deadly surge in infections made its way across the Indian capital. Politicians have pledged to ramp up vaccinations, but their promises fall short following a weekend of forced closures of vaccination centers due to lack of supply. Delhi’s chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, announced on Sunday that the city will start “unlocking” gradually next week if cases continue to fall, while acknowledging a “severe shortage” of vaccines. “Our top priority is to get everyone vaccinated,” said Mr. Kejriwal in a news conference (NYT). “If everyone gets vaccinated, maybe we will be spared of the third wave,” he said. But India lacks the vaccine manufacturing capacity that would allow it to inoculate a large portion of its population anytime soon and importing vaccines from abroad has been bogged down by squabbling between central and local governments. If officials do lift restrictions in the city and allow large, maskless gatherings to take place like they did previously, a third wave could result. Bonus Read: “Patients in India Are Desperate For Care. This Family Turned to a Doctor 7,700 Miles Away,” (WaPo).

Taiwan Awaits Millions of Vaccine Doses as Alert Level Extended

After spending months successfully keeping the coronavirus at bay and proceeding with relatively normal life compared to other places around the world, Taiwan is now dealing with a spike in domestic infections. On Tuesday Health Minister Chen Shih-chung extended the virus-related restrictions through mid-June, saying that even though infection numbers were falling, positive rates remained high (Reuters). Chen said he was concerned about “hidden spreaders” in the community, which authorities explained meant cases that were not able to be detected due to a lag in test results. Under the extension, schools and entertainment venues will remain closed and personal gatherings will be limited. Chen said two million vaccine doses would arrive by the end of June and 10 million by the end of August, though he did not elaborate. Taiwan has ordered more than 20 million doses from AstraZeneca and Moderna but is also developing its own vaccines domestically. Taiwan has vaccinated only about 1% of its population.

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Administration Seeks to Make Pandemic-Era Remote Work Arrangements Permanent

The pandemic forced the federal government to provide options for remote work for many of its employees despite its historical resistance to remote work options, and now the Biden administration is seeking to make some of these options permanent (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “Notice of the change is expected in June, when the administration is set to release long-awaited guidance to agencies about when and how many federal employees can return to the office — likely in hybrid workplaces that combine in-person and at-home options, according to officials and memos obtained by The Washington Post. The bulletin is expected to address remote work policies in the immediate and long term.” A senior administration official told the Post, “We anticipate this guidance will leave room for decision-making at departments and agencies, to provide maximum flexibility for defining work requirements to meet mission and workforce needs.”

New York City Schools Will Be Fully In-Person in the Fall

On Monday New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio announced that public schools in the city will not offer remote learning in the Fall (WSJ, NYT). Instead, the city will only offer in-person instruction. The policy will represent a significant shift from current conditions. The Journal reports, “About 582,000 students, or 61%, are still taking remote instruction at home, according to the latest estimates from the city’s Department of Education, and thousands of other students left the district entirely, causing a 4% drop in enrollment.” De Blasio pointed to New York’s vaccination rate in justifying the decision. New York’s teachers union expressed support for the broader effort to return students to school and a belief that for many students it will be safe in the fall. However, the union also expressed concern about the decision not to offer any remote option. United Federation of Teachers President Michael Mulgrew stated, “We still have concerns about the safety of a small number of students with extreme medical challenges. For that small group of students, a remote option may still be necessary.” For his part, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said that the state is working on its own policy but noted, “I think there’s no reason why every school shouldn’t be open in September.”

New Jersey Will Lift Mask Mandate

On Monday, New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Phil Murphy announced that the state will lift its mask mandate on Friday, in time for the Memorial Day holiday (Politico). The new order would allow even the unvaccinated to not wear masks in most situations. While announcing the new rules, Murphy also defended his decision to wait two weeks after the CDC revised its federal guidance, saying, “I do not for one minute regret our taking these extra two weeks to ensure that the dramatic decreases we have begun seeing in cases and hospitalizations continue.”

U.S. Economy

Bonus Watch, “Job Market Improves for Class of 2021, but Grads Face Competition,” (WSJ).

Vaccinated Americans Are Not Yet Driving Economic Recovery

Data on spending patterns and foot traffic suggest that vaccinated Americans are not the primary driver behind recent signs of economic recovery, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Across the country, foot traffic—a proxy for spending—at many providers of in-person services such as airports, hotels and theaters is still below pre-pandemic levels. But it is up from the winter, and has climbed more rapidly in states with Covid-19 vaccination rates below 45% as of May 3 than in states with higher rates, according to an analysis by data company Earnest Research.” Similarly, the market research firm Cardify found that, as the Journal writes, “Spending at entertainment venues was up 20% among consumers who don’t plan to get the vaccine in April compared with January 2020. It was up just 10% among vaccinated people during that same period, according to Cardify.” However, the Journal notes that vaccinated people may begin to play a larger role in coming months.

Warehouses Turn to Robots to Help with Labor Gaps

The growth of e-commerce along with signs of post-pandemic economic recovery have generated surging demand for a range of products at the same time that many warehouse companies are struggling to hire enough staff (WSJ). As a result, some companies are turning to robots to aid with the gap. The Wall Street Journal reports, “Logistics-automation companies say demand for their technology has grown during the pandemic as companies look for ways to cope with big swings in volume when workers are scarce and social distancing requirements limit building occupancy.” The Journal adds, “U.S. warehousing and storage companies added nearly 168,000 jobs between April 2020 and April of this year, federal figures show, a rise of 13.6%. But sector payrolls contracted by 4,300 jobs from March to April, according to a preliminary report by the Labor Department. Many logistics employers say they can’t add enough staff to keep pace with strong demand as the U.S. economy emerges from the pandemic.”

Bonus Read : “‘It’s Not Enough’ Living Through a Pandemic On $100 a Week,” (NYT).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Small Businesses Have Surged in Black Communities. Was It the Stimulus?,” (NYT).

Manhattan Apartment Vacancy Rate Remains High

Even as hopes grow that the pandemic will wane and the economy surge back, apartment vacancies in Manhattan remain high (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “More than one in 10 Manhattan rental apartments is vacant, raising the prospect that discounted rents and other tenant deals could persist through at least the summer. The borough’s apartment vacancy rate rose in April to 11.6%, up from 2.42% one year ago, according to a report from appraisal firm Miller Samuel and brokerage Douglas Elliman. Median rent fell on both a monthly and annual basis.” The vacancy rate is driven in part by the large number of tenants who left the borough and city during the pandemic and who have yet to return. Manhattan’s vacancy rate remains high even as other cities see rent rise and vacancies fall and as the borough has seen sales increase. The Journal notes, “Nationally, rent has been rising again in most cities, including tech hubs like Austin and Denver, which reversed their negative rent trends in April, according to Realtor.com. The national apartment vacancy rate has held steady below 5% in recent months, according to brokerage CBRE.”

Las Vegas Casinos Seek to Boost Vaccination as June 1 Reopening Approaches

Clark County, Nevada, home to Las Vegas, plans to lift its pandemic restrictions on June 1, and casinos are aiming to boost vaccination rates in the hopes that the reopening will help the economy recover (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “Casinos, where conventioneers are likely to spend free time, have prodded workers to get vaccinated; several large casinos say 80 to 90 percent of their employees have received at least one shot. That compares with about 54 percent of eligible people 16 and over in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located.” Alan Feldman, a distinguished fellow at the International Gaming Institute at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, told the Post, “It feels as though we are in the front seat of a roller coaster,” adding, “We see clear skies ahead, but will we continue to go up — or will we go down?”

Bonus Read: “The Pandemic Was Especially Hard on Live Jazz. But D.C.’s Scene is Slowly Restarting,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Aaron Blake writes that the media and Donald Trump both simplified the lab leak origin hypothesis for their own ends (WaPo).

Candida Moss writes on her experience as a transplant recipient who is vaccinated but lacks antibodies and the experiences of others in similar positions (NYT).

Michael Brendan Dougherty writes on what it would mean if the lab leak/human origin hypotheses were correct (National Review).

Shrouq Aila and Ana Therese Day write on how Israeli airstrikes shook Gaza’s health system (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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