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Stagflation Worries at the Fed

By Michael Maloney

 

Federal Reserve officials signaled concern at their meeting earlier this month that large tariff hikes would push up prices and could risk stoking higher inflation, minutes from the gathering released yesterday show. Also at the May 6-7 meeting, Fed officials voted to renew swap lines for dollars and foreign currencies that some overseas central bankers had worried weren't assured. And Vice President JD Vance said at a bitcoin conference yesterday that President Trump will sign a bill that establishes rules for stablecoins.

 

Top News

The Fed Forecasts Stagflation

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. PHOTO: SHAWN THEW/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK

The minutes from the Fed's May 6-7 policy meeting strongly suggest the central bank isn’t close to lowering rates anytime soon. Instead, the meeting summary, released with the customary three-week delay, highlighted fears over a recipe for stagflation, where economic activity slows while price increases accelerate.

Fed Renews Swap Lines Foreign Officials Saw as Vulnerable

At its May meeting, the Federal Reserve's policy committee voted unanimously to renew swap lines for dollars and foreign currencies with a group of overseas central banks, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and others, according to minutes of the meeting. News reports this year have suggested that amid the White House's broad diplomatic and trade-policy pullback, overseas central bankers have expressed concerns that the Fed's foreign swap lines could be less assured than they were in the past. (Matt Grossman)

Trade Court Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs

A federal trade court ruled President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs on virtually every nation, voiding the levies that have sparked a global trade war and threatened to upend the world economy.

  • The ‘TACO Trade’ That Has Trump Fuming

Trump Pledged ‘No Tax on Social Security,’ but Bill Says Otherwise

President Trump promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. Instead, the House tax-and-spending bill includes a half measure. The bill’s proposed $4,000 senior deduction falls short of eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits altogether.

Bank of Mexico Cuts Economic Growth Forecasts

The Bank of Mexico lowered its economic growth estimates for this year and next, citing uncertainty about the impact of U.S. import tariffs and weakness in domestic consumption and investment.

Bank of Korea Cuts Rates, Slashes 2025 Growth Outlook

South Korea’s central bank slashed its growth outlook for the year, cutting its policy rate in a widely expected move to support the country’s sagging economy.

 

Financial Regulation

Vance Vows to Champion the Crypto ‘Movement’

Vice President JD Vance spoke during the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas. PHOTO: ROGER KISBY FOR WSJ

Vice President JD Vance promised a cheering audience of bitcoin enthusiasts on Wednesday that the Trump administration would press ahead with crypto-friendly policies. Vance’s speech at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas marked a historic advance for the crypto industry, which has evolved from a ragtag band of libertarian rebels into a political force with substantial influence in the White House and on Capitol Hill.

 

Forward Guidance

Thursday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: 2nd estimate GDP
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
8:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in Housing Partnership Network fireside chat
10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales Index
2 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop
4 p.m.: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participates in 'A Conversation on the Economy' event
8:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at Greater Waco Member Appreciation event

Friday

8:30 a.m.: U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Price Index
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 a.m.: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
12:30 p.m.: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at Council for Economic Education event
3 p.m.: U.S. Agricultural Prices
7:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in 'The Interview Show With Mark Bazer' talk show

 

Research

ECB Rate Cut Expected in June, Possibly July and September Too

Flowers bloom on a meadow near the European Central Bank building, at right, in Frankfurt. PHOTO: MICHAEL PROBST/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The European Central Bank is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 5 and maintain its meeting-by-meeting approach to the policy outlook, SEB Research’s Jussi Hiljanen says in a note. “The trade war, negative growth impacts, and ongoing disinflationary trend support prospects for further rate cuts beyond June, but we expect the ECB to maintain a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach,” the chief strategist says. A rate cut in June would bring the deposit rate to 2%. SEB expects cuts in July and September, which would lower the deposit rate to 1.5% in September. However, Hiljanen acknowledges the risk of a slower pace of rate cuts after June.

—Emese Bartha

 

Basis Points

  • Once veiled behind the Iron Curtain, Eastern European nations have transformed into automotive powerhouses, churning out Porsches, Audis and even key parts for iconic American pickup trucks.
  • Manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowed but at a softer pace this month, after demand picked up and future expectations for business conditions improved, despite the recent market turmoil. The Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity's index for May rose to minus 9 from minus 13 in April, the Richmond Fed said. Future indexes improved, with the measure of local business conditions six months from now rising notably. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • Health savings accounts are already a sweet deal for many Americans. They could soon get sweeter. Another 20 million Americans could soon have access to the terrific tax advantages of HSAs.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by Michael Maloney in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to michael.maloney@wsj.com.

 
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