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October 8, 2020 - Brief Issue 102
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
The Coronavirus Daily Brief will not publish on Monday, October 12 for Columbus and Indigenous Peoples Day. It will return to its regular schedule on Tuesday October 13.
Top Headlines
FDA Releases Emergency Vaccine Approval Guidelines; White House Approves Guidelines After Initial Resistance (Health & Science)
Eli Lilly Requests Emergency Authorization for Covid-19 Antibody Therapy (Health & Science)
World Banks Warns That Pandemic Could Push 150 Million People Into Poverty (Around the World)
Experts Fear Second Coronavirus Wave in Brazil (Around the World)
Scotland Imposes Alcohol Service Ban (Around the World)
France Experiences Record Day of New Cases (Around the World)
WHO Awaits Chinese Approval for Coronavirus Origin Investigators (Around the World)
Tunisia Introduces Curfew To Curb Massive Spike in Coronavirus Cases (Around the World)
White House Prepares for Trump to Return to Work; Biden: Shouldn’t Be a Debate if Trump Still Has Covid (U.S. Government & Politics)
Richest Americans Grow Their Wealth Amid Pandemic (U.S. Economy)
Orthodox Jewish Backlash to New York Coronavirus Policies Grows (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 7,551,257 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 211,844 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 2,999,895 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 111,077,086 tests. Worldwide, there have been 36,200,813 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,056,493 deaths. At least 25,261,037 people have recovered from the virus.
FDA Releases Emergency Vaccine Approval Guidelines; White House Approves Guidelines After Initial Resistance
On Tuesday, the FDA published their guidelines regarding emergency approval of a Covid-19 vaccine (NPR). Among the guidelines is a rule stating that companies conducting clinical trials must follow patients for a median of two months before submitting a request for emergency approval, a stipulation that would almost certainly mean no vaccine would be approved for general use prior to the November 3 election. Longer-term participant monitoring allows researchers to uncover any delayed adverse reactions to the vaccine and is an important part of assuring patient safety.
In a reversal that surprised FDA officials, the White House Office of Management and Budget approved the guidelines shortly after top White House officials moved to block them (NYT, WaPo). The approval was met with ire from President Trump, who tweeted, “New F.D.A. Rules make it more difficult for them to speed up vaccines for approval before Election Day. Just another political hit job!” FDA officials, on the other hand, believe the guidelines are essential for ensuring vaccine safety. Making the guidelines publicly available was done in part to reassure an increasingly wary public that strict safety and efficacy standards are indeed being met.
Eli Lilly Requests Emergency Authorization for Covid-19 Antibody Therapy
Pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly has submitted a request to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) asking for their experimental antibody treatment, known within the company as LY-CoV555, to be approved for emergency use in patients experiencing mild to moderate early-stage Covid-19 (WSJ, The Hill). The treatment, derived from convalescent serum, is designed to inhibit viral entry into human cells (CNBC). The therapy was demonstrated to reduce disease severity and duration in Phase 2 clinical trials, and similar results were obtained with a combination of LY-CoV55 and a second antibody developed by the company, LY-CoV016. Eli Lilly says that they can supply 100,000 doses of LY-CoV55 this month and 50,000 doses of combination therapy by the end of the year.
Lack of Standardized Response to Covid-19 Outbreaks Across the U.S. Increases Disease Risk
Across the United States, Covid-19 outbreak protocols often vary widely. In New York, for instance, school closure is triggered if two students in the school contract the virus (WaPo). In Iowa, more than 10% of students could become infected without prompting closure. Similarly, where you live can affect when and why your workplace might close, at what capacity restaurants and bars are permitted to operate, and even whether you are required to wear a mask in indoor public settings (Politico). Unfortunately, this can make it difficult for states to share data with one another and learn what works and what doesn’t for controlling Covid-19. According to public health officials, some states have adopted standards that are too relaxed and make viral spread much more likely – even beyond state lines (WaPo).
Fauci: 300,000 - 400,000 Americans Could Die of Covid
On Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that 300,000–400,000 people could die of Covid-19 in the United States if scientifically-supported guidelines are not followed (Politico). More than 200,000 deaths from the virus have already been reported in the U.S. (Johns Hopkins). Even if a vaccine is approved for general use before the end of the year, it would likely not become widely available until Summer 2021, meaning precautions such as physical distancing, wearing a mask, and staying home when ill will be no less important going into 2021.
Around the World
World Bank Warns That Pandemic Could Push 150 Million People Into Poverty
As many as 150 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty by the end of 2021 due to the pandemic, the World Bank warned Tuesday. By the end of 2020, according to the World Bank’s report, between 88 and 115 million people are expected to fall into extreme poverty, with the number increasing to between 111 and 150 million by the end of 2021. The percentage of people living in extreme poverty worldwide would be between 9.1 and 9.4 percent in 2020, around the same as in 2017. Prior to the pandemic, extreme poverty was expected to be at around 7.5 percent of the population by the end of 2021. This year is expected to be the first with a global poverty increase in two decades. The World Bank defines extreme poverty this year as a daily income of $1.90 or less (Reuters).
The Americas
Experts Fear Second Coronavirus Wave in Brazil
Public health experts fear a second wave of the coronavirus in Brazil as the country saw its five millionth case on Wednesday. While the world’s second-deadliest national outbreak has subsided since its peak in July, experts warn that the country is ditching social distancing practices and returning to normal life too quickly. “Soon we will reach 150,0000 deaths, a frightening number,” Federal University of Rio de Janeiro epidemiologist Roberto Medronho told Reuters. “We are seeing the authorities easing social distancing more and more despite the number of cases,” he added. Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the coronavirus since the start of the pandemic, instead urging people to resume their normal lives so the economy may recover from what will likely be its worst year on record. The average daily mortality count last week was 658 deaths, down from the 1,073 daily deaths seen in the last week of July (Reuters).
Europe
Scotland Imposes Alcohol Service Ban
Scottish pubs, bars and restaurants will be forbidden from serving alcohol indoors for 16 days, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced Wednesday, with establishments in the worst-hit areas to be closed outright. In areas of Scotland where establishments will be allowed to remain open, the businesses must close their interiors by 6pm starting Friday and can only serve food and non-alcoholic beverages inside. They will, however, still be allowed to serve alcohol outdoors until 10pm. Alcohol-serving establishments will be closed outright in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Lanarkshire, the Lothians, Ayrshire and Arran, and Forth Valley apart from takeaway. People in those five areas under the strictest restrictions have also been asked to avoid public transport and avoid non-essential travel after cases increased by 1,054 infections across Scotland on Wednesday (Guardian).
France Experiences Record Day of New Cases
France registered 18,746 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the country’s newest record amid a surge of the pandemic throughout Europe. Wednesday’s new cases were almost double Tuesday’s count of 10,489 new infections, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to pledge new restrictions. "In places where the disease is circulating too quickly ... there will be new restrictions,” said Macron in a television interview. The new rise comes one day after Paris and three surrounding regions came under the maximum coronavirus alert level, with bars and cafes shut for two weeks. More than 7,500 people across the country are currently being hospitalized for Covid-19, the highest number in three months (France 24).
Asia-Pacific
WHO Awaits Chinese Approval for Coronavirus Origin Investigators
The World Health Organization (WHO) is waiting for Beijing to approve experts for a research task force that will be sent to China to try to shed light on the origins of the novel coronavirus. “A list of candidates has been submitted to the Chinese authorities for their consideration and for next steps in order to deploy that team,” WHO emergencies program director Mike Ryan told the advisory group of member state representatives. The WHO has for months promised member states that it will send a research team to China to independently investigate the origins of the pandemic. In July, the inter-governmental organization promised member states that a team would be sent to Wuhan in “a matter of weeks” following an initial meeting in August between WHO experts and Chinese health officials to lay the groundwork for the mission.
Thus far, however, the investigation in China has not begun. Speaking at a Monday meeting, Australian associate health secretary and WHO executive board member Caroline Edwards called for increased transparency. “Transparency around this work is critical, we are keen to see further information on the membership of the international team and its program of work,” she said. David Fidler, an adjunct senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations in the U.S., said China’s ability to veto members means that “deference to Chinese authorities is hard-wired into this mission,” adding that “given the geopolitics of the pandemic, this back and forth between the WHO and China will refuel criticism of both the WHO and China and darken the cloud already hanging over the organization and its relationship with the Chinese government” (South China Morning Post).
Middle East and North Africa
Tunisia Introduces Curfew To Curb Massive Spike in Coronavirus Cases
The Tunisian government will place a night curfew on the capital Tunis in a bid to combat the pandemic’s second wave. All citizens must stay home between 9pm and 5am from Thursday, with a 7pm curfew on weekends. Friday prayers at mosques will also be suspended citywide. While the nation spent the early months of the pandemic relatively unscathed thanks to an intensive lockdown, the case count began increasing rapidly through September. Health authorities recorded a record high of 2,509 new cases on Monday, breaching the 2,000 mark for the first time. The government maintains, however, that the country cannot afford another lockdown. The total case count since the pandemic’s beginning stands at 24,542 infections and 364 deaths (Reuters).
U.S. Government & Politics
White House Prepares for Trump to Return to Work; Biden: Shouldn’t Be a Debate if Trump Still Has Covid
The White House is reportedly preparing for Trump’s return to work (CNN).The preparations follow Trump’s release from the hospital. They also come as Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, incorrectly suggested that Trump was already working from the Oval Office. While Trump reportedly remains in isolation, CNN writes, “few seemed to think that would last much longer, even though he is carrying an active case of coronavirus.” As we covered in yesterday’s brief, Trump has suggested that he is still looking forward to debating Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden on October 15. Bonus Read: “Secret Service Agents Frustrated with Trump’s Unnecessary Coronavirus Risks,” (NPR).
On Tuesday, while speaking with reporters in Maryland, Biden said that there should not be a second debate if Trump still has Covid (CNN). Biden stated, “Well, I think if he still has Covid, we shouldn't have a debate,” adding, “I think we're gonna have to follow very strict guidelines. Too many people have been infected and it's a very serious problem.” However, he continued to say, “I'll be guided by the guidelines of the Cleveland Clinic, and what the docs say is the right thing to do – if and when he shows up for debate.”
Boston Delays School Reopening
On Wednesday, Boston Mayor Mayor Marty Walsh announced that the city would delay reopening plans for Boston’s public schools as the city’s positivity rate surpassed four percent (Politico). Walsh stated, “We believe it is prudent at this time to pause the school reopening plan.” Politico writes, “Preschoolers and kindergartners who were scheduled to report to school the week of Oct. 15 instead will now start Oct. 22, Walsh said, although he added that the date is dependent on how the virus data develops between now and then.”
Bonus Read: “Under Pence, Politics Regularly Seeped Into the Coronavirus Task Force,” (NYT).
U.S. Economy
Richest Americans Grow Their Wealth Amid Pandemic
Far from suffering economically, the wealthiest Americans have grown their wealth amid the pandemic, according to a new report from the research company Wealth-X (WSJ). According to the report, Americans with more than $30 million in net worth, grew their collective net worth by $12.5 trillion or 37%. The Wall Street Journal writes, “While that is a net decrease of 3% from the end of 2019, it dramatically outpaces the recovery of ultrahigh-net-worth individuals overseas. Global wealth is still 9% down from its levels at the end of 2019, according to the report.” The report comes as other analyses, which we have covered in previous briefs suggest the coronavirus recession is the most unequally borne recession in modern U.S. history.
Bonus Read: “Fed Minutes to Shed Light on Economic Outlook, Policy Debate,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Orthodox Jewish Backlash to New York Coronavirus Policies Grows
On Wednesday, Orthodox Jewish community leaders criticized New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s response to the coronavirus which includes restrictions on businesses, schools, and houses of worship, amid a growing backlash within New York orthodox communities (NYT). Four Orthodox Jewish lawmakers stated, “We are appalled by Governor Cuomo’s words and actions today.” The New York Times writes, “Their frustration was reflected on the street, where video shared widely on social media showed hundreds of Hasidic men, most of them without masks, gathering after midnight and setting fires along 13th Avenue in the Borough Park neighborhood. The crowd soon turned violent, with a mob angrily swarming at least one Hasidic man they believed to be disloyal to the community.” Religious leaders said they had not been consulted on the policy and the Times writes, “Mr. Cuomo seemed to be specifically targeting Orthodox synagogues that have become scenes of large gatherings of worshipers clustered together, with many not wearing face coverings. The governor has used photos of packed crowds of Orthodox Jews this week to make the case for imposing restrictions in certain areas.”
Bonus Read: “The NFL’s Covid-19 Crisis Intensifies With the Titans and Patriots,” (WSJ).
Analysis & Arguments
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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.
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