Click here to subscribe to the daily brief.

June 16, 2020 - Brief Issue 61

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Subscribe or listen here to get the top weekly stories as a podcast at the start of each week.

[ONLINE Event at New America] - Supporting Women-Owned Businesses During the COVID-19 Era - Today from 5:00 pm - 6:30 pm EST, RSVP here.

Top Headlines

Influential Model Estimates More Than 200,000 COVID-19 Deaths in U.S. by October (Health & Science)

Gilead Sciences, Maker of COVID-19 Treatment Drug Remdesivir, Signs Non-Exclusive Licensing Agreement With Four Additional Distributors (Health & Science)

In the Midst of Pandemic, Other Global Diseases Such as Measles Spread (Health & Science)

U.S. FDA Withdraws Emergency Use Authorization For Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine (Health & Science)

A Coronavirus Mutation D614G Allows it to Enter Cells in Lab More Easily, Scripps Researchers Found; D614G Mutation Found in Europe and Northeastern U.S.; Further Research Needed to Investigate if D614G Means Virus More Contagious Among Humans (Health & Science)

New Study Shows Superspreading Clusters Came out of “Healthcare and Other Care Facilities, Restaurants and Bars, Workplaces, and Music Events” (Health & Science)

Virus Spikes and Some U.S. Cities Slow Reopening (Health & Science)

Imperial College London Starts Human Trial of COVID-19 Vaccine; Singapore Plans to Begin Human Trials of Vaccine in August (Health & Science)

Red Cross Now Testing All Blood Donations for COVID-19 Antibodies (Health & Science)

U.S. NIH Launches New COVID-19 Database to “Enable Machine Learning Approaches” to Expedite Research (Health & Science)

During Pandemic Isolation Has Significant Consequences for Kids (Health & Science)

European Countries Open Borders Again to Other Europeans (Around the World)

Norway Stops Tracking App Over Privacy Concerns (Around the World)

France’s Daily Death Toll Under 30 for Sixth Consecutive Day, Cafes in Paris Reopen (Around the World)

Beijing Starts Mass Testing to Combat New Outbreak, Reimposes Travel Ban (Around the World)

Singapore to Remove Most Coronavirus Restrictions by Friday (Around the World)

With Their Health System Overrun, Afghans Seek “Vaccine” from Herbalist (Around the World)

U.S. Government Watchdogs Warn Congress Regarding Trump Administration Efforts to Block Oversight of More Than $1 trillion in Coronavirus Response Spending (U.S. Government & Politics)

NYC Mayor de Blasio Asks Contact Tracers Not to Ask Positive Cases If They've Attended Black Lives Matter Protests (U.S. Government & Politics)

President Trump Responds to Coronavirus-Related Criticism of Upcoming Rally (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. States Experience Drops in Tax Revenue (U.S. Economy)

Travel Demand Recovery Years Away Reports Kayak (U.S. Economy)

U.S. Stocks Gain as Federal Reserve Announces Bond Buying (U.S. Economy)

Texas Armed Lockdown Protester and Boogaloo Member Arrested on Drug Charges (U.S. Society)

Oscars Delayed Until April 25 (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 2,114,026 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 116,127 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 576,334 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 23,984,592 tests. Worldwide, there have been 8,035,364 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 436,918 deaths. At least 3,872,963 people have recovered from the virus.

Influential Model Estimates More Than 200,000 COVID-19 Deaths in U.S. by October

In Monday’s brief, we noted that the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) coronavirus model projected 169,890 American deaths from COVID-19 by October 1 as of last week. However, on Monday, the IHME model surged to 201,129 deaths by October 1 with a range of between 171,551 to 269,395 deaths, reports CNN. The IHME model was often used as a reference during the White House coronavirus task force briefings. One of the IHME model’s creators, Ali Mokdad, told CNN via email that “increased mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing led to more infections and we see it in Florida, Arizona, and other states. This means more projected deaths” adding, “the second part is that we are now projecting to October 1st, which means that an increase in this wave will result in our starting point for the second wave (more seeding), so the second wave will be higher and we are capturing parts of that. Remember the second wave starts at the end of August early September.” The model takes into account a series of factors such as mobile phone tracking data to show Americans moving away from home, mask wearing, air pollution information, coronavirus testing figures, population density, and pneumonia data, in addition to other information. In an earlier brief we noted that the CDC began releasing some coronavirus case and death estimates in April using a model created by Youyang Gu, an independent researcher. As of Monday, Gu’s model still projects that by October 1, total U.S. deaths due to COVID-19 could be 198,560. Bonus Read: “Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own” (NPR).

Gilead Sciences, Maker of COVID-19 Treatment Drug Remdesivir, Signs Non-Exclusive Licensing Agreement With Four Additional Distributors

As we noted in previous briefs, Gilead Sciences Inc., creator of the only U.S. Food and Drug Administration emergency authorized drug to treat COVID-19 symptoms, has been in talks with various companies to license the drug to other countries. In mid-May, Gilead licensed the sale of remdesivir to generic brand companies in India and Pakistan. These five companies – Cipla, Hetero Labs, Jubilant Lifesciences, Mylan, and Ferozsons – will “manufacture and distribute the experimental medicine to 127 countries,” reported STAT, and no royalties will be expected until the World Health Organization announces the global pandemic over, or if a second COVID-19 treatment or vaccine is approved. This past weekend, Gilead signed a non-exclusive agreement with four more distributors: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd, Biocon arm Syngene International Ltd, Zydus Cadila Ltd, and Egypt-based Eva Pharma Pvt Ltd., reports Hindustan Times. The Hindustan Times also notes that “Remdesivir is also part of WHO’s Solidarity Trial which is underway across the world, including at over half a dozen sites in India.” According to a press release by Dr. Reddy’s, this new licensing agreement will cover 127 countries, and “Dr. Reddy’s would need to do the manufacturing scale up and obtain regulatory approval for marketing of this drug in respective countries.” An application for “conditional marketing authorization” of remdesivir has been sent to the European Medicines Agency (Bloomberg).

In the Midst of Pandemic, Other Global Diseases Such as Measles Spread

As we’ve noted in previous briefs, health experts around the world have raised concerns over a lack of vaccinations during the global pandemic. Health experts have particularly warned of two possible outbreaks: measles and malaria. The Measles & Rubella Initiative said of this decrease in vaccinations in the midst of the coronavirus, “As COVID-19 continues to spread globally, over 117 million children in 37 countries may miss out on receiving life-saving measles vaccine” (JAMA). On Sunday, the New York Times reported that “of 29 countries that have currently suspended measles campaigns because of the pandemic, 18 are reporting outbreaks.” The World Health Organization (WHO) released a statement on April 27 that 41 countries across sub-Saharan Africa will not have malaria vaccines available this year. This lack of vaccines may nearly double the number of deaths related to malaria across those countries. Polio vaccines across Africa have also stopped, directly impacting up to 12 million children (NYT). UNICEF reported that vaccinations in countries across South Asia are impacted due to lockdowns and residents’ fear of taking their children to healthcare facilities (UNICEF). Now, diphtheria, cholera, polio, and measles are all on the rise around the world. According to WHO director general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “Immunization is one of the most powerful and fundamental disease prevention tools in the history of public health.” Further, he said, “Disruption to immunization programs from the Covid-19 pandemic threatens to unwind decades of progress against vaccine-preventable diseases like measles” (NYT). Measles, like the coronavirus, is spread by aerosolized particles in the air, though it is more contagious. Stanford University pediatric infectious disease expert Dr. Yvonne Maldonado describes how infectious measles is: “If people walk into a room where a person with measles had been two hours ago and no one has been immunized, 100 percent of those people will get infected.” Countries are trying to now simultaneously meet vaccine requirements while also tending to coronavirus infections. Countries started to reopen their vaccine programs after the WHO released survey data stating that “80 million babies under a year old were at risk of missing routine immunizations,” reports the New York Times. Nepal, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic are some of those countries trying to meet the demand of child vaccines, as a result of that published survey. However, for some countries, it’s not that easy. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, is partnering with countries to help purchase vaccines. According to Gavi managing director Thabani Maphosa, at least six out of 73 countries Gavi partners with “cannot afford their usual share of vaccine costs because of the economic toll of the pandemic.” As the pandemic continues to stretch out, the likelihood of that number increasing is high, which may mean that vaccine programs are in jeopardy. WHO director of immunization Katherine O’Brien says of the lack of vaccinations, that “outbreak pathogens don’t recognize borders” adding, “especially measles: Measles anywhere is measles everywhere.”

U.S. FDA Withdraws Emergency Use Authorization For Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine

On Monday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that it will be “revoking emergency authorization of two malaria drugs to treat Covid-19, saying that they are ‘unlikely to be effective,’” reports the New York Times. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and chloroquine (CQ) have had their emergency use authorization revoked due to several reasons, including the fact that “earlier reports of decreased viral shedding with CQ or HCQ treatment have not been consistently replicated and recent data from a randomized controlled trial assessing probability of negative conversion showed no difference between HCQ and standard of care alone,” says the FDA. President Trump has referred to hydroxychloroquine as a “game-changer” and even took the drug for “a couple weeks” as a preventive measure (Guardian), however, as STAT notes, “the FDA had previously expressed concerns about broad use of hydroxychloroquine, issuing a pointed warning in late April that cautioned against use of the drug outside the setting of a hospital or clinical trial.”

A Coronavirus Mutation D614G Allows it to Enter Cells in Lab More Easily, Scripps Researchers Found; D614G Mutation Found in Europe and Northeastern U.S.; Further Research Needed to Investigate if D614G Means Virus More Contagious Among Humans

A mutation in the coronavirus makes it more infectious in laboratory cell cultures, researchers found at Scripps Research in Florida, although they say further research is needed to understand if it is more infectious among people in the real world (Scripps). If it is, it may help explain why outbreaks were more severe in parts of Europe and northeastern United States, where the mutation is more common (CNN, NYT).

The mutation, called D614G, stabilizes the virus’ spike protein, which binds to the ACE2 receptor on human cells, allowing the virus to enter cells, report the study authors in a preprint manuscript (bioRxiv). The virus is covered with hundreds of spikes, but they are not completely stable, and without the mutation, only about a quarter of the spikes are functional. With the mutation, the “number—or density—of functional spikes on the virus is four or five times greater” said virologist Dr. Hyeryun Choe, senior author of the study (Reuters). In laboratory tests using harmless viruses engineered to produce the coronavirus protein, researchers found that the viruses with the D614 mutation were “nearly 10 times more infectious in the cell culture system that we used” than those without that same mutation, says Choe (NYT).

In early May, scientists at Los Alamos led by Dr. Bette Korber developed a tracking system based on GISAID, the world’s main genetic database for the coronavirus. Based on the genetic sequences entered into the database from different locations in the world, they found that when the D614G mutation was “introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form” (bioRxiv), and argued that the spread was due to increased infectivity, as we covered in a previous brief. Other scientists questioned the study’s argument: virologist Dr. David O’Connor pointed out that results should be interpreted with caution because the GISAID database is not randomly sampled, with Europe and the United States overrepresented; the mutation’s spread may also be shaped by something called the founder effect, said Dr. William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard (WaPo). In the case of coronavirus, the founder effect might occur when the virus jumps to a new population: if only a few strains enter that population, one strain may become disproportionately represented compared to the worldwide population, even if that strain doesn’t make the virus more infectious.

The Scripps Research study now gives a potential biological underpinning to that theory, but further research is needed. While an engineered virus with the D614G mutation could enter cells more easily in the lab, this finding does not mean that the coronavirus with the mutation is necessarily more infectious in a human population. “Kristian Andersen, a geneticist at Scripps Research, La Jolla, said that analyses of D614G and other variants in Washington and California had so far found no difference in how quickly or widely one variant spread over another,” writes the New York Times. “That’s the main reason that I’m so hesitant at the moment,” Andersen said. “Because if one really was able to spread significantly better than the other, then we would expect to see a difference here, and we don’t.” 

The authors say that epidemiological studies are needed to investigate that issue: “While ICU data from New York and elsewhere reports a preponderance of the new D614G variant, much more data, ideally under controlled studies, are needed” (Scripps). Another step would be to look at testing the different variants in animal studies (NYT). Fortunately, “immune factors from the serum of infected people work equally well against engineered viruses both with and without the D614G mutation. That’s a hopeful sign that vaccine candidates in development will work against variants with or without that mutation” (Scripps). Meanwhile, Korber is leading a new study with a team at Duke, which also found that viruses with the D614G mutation infected cells more than viruses without it, said Duke virologist Dr. David Montefiori; the full paper is now submitted to a journal (NYT).

New Study Shows Superspreading Clusters Came out of “Healthcare and Other Care Facilities, Restaurants and Bars, Workplaces, and Music Events”

A recent study out of Japan, published as an early release volume in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Emerging Infectious Diseases, identified superspreading clusters in “healthcare and other care facilities, restaurants and bars, workplaces, and music events” (CDC). The research team looked at 3,184 coronavirus cases in Japan, and identified 61 clusters, as well as “22 probable primary case-patients for the clusters; most were 20–39 years of age and presymptomatic or asymptomatic at virus transmission.” Of the 3,184 cases, 309 were imported. The team defines a cluster as having at least five coronavirus cases with “primary exposure reported as a common event or venue, but not within-household transmissions.” Of the 61 clusters, 18 were from healthcare facilities, 10 were from other care facilities (nursing homes or day care centers), 10 were from restaurants and bars, 8 were from workplaces, 7 were from music-related events (concerts, rehearsals, karaoke), 5 were from gymnasiums, 2 were from ceremonial functions, and one was from an airplane. Each cluster had between 5-10 cases, and the largest cluster had over 100, which was from a hospital. The largest non-medical related cluster was over 30 people at a live music concert. The report emphasized “many COVID-19 clusters were associated with heavy breathing in close proximity, such as singing at karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, having conversations in bars, and exercising in gymnasiums.” In terms of ease of virus transmission, the team notes: “We do not know whether social, biological, or both factors play a role in the difference in transmission patterns between the younger and older persons. We also noted probable primary COVID-19 case-patients appear to transmit the virus and generate clusters even in the absence of apparent respiratory symptoms, such as cough.” Bonus Read: “How America’s Hospitals Survived the First Wave of the Coronavirus” (ProPublica).

Virus Spikes and Some U.S. Cities Slow Reopening

Increases of confirmed coronavirus infections in Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Tennessee are causing some governors and mayors to slow their plans to reopen. Most states have not gone as far as to stop reopening entirely or to reinstate lockdown orders, as they are worried about their economies and citizens’ responses. However, some state and local officials and Oregon, Utah, and Tennessee have paused the reopening process. In the Houston area, some officials even announced possible plans for instituting lockdown orders for a second time. Oregon Governor Kate Brown spoke of the reopening, stating, "The virus makes the timeline. We don't make the timeline" (Politico).

Experts say that with rising cases, a second shutdown is likely, but the second shutdown could have severe consequences. Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, discussed a second lockdown: "Because of quarantine fatigue, because of the economic effects of quarantine, another round of shutdowns might have even larger effects on businesses that may be on the edge of not being able to stay solvent" (CNN). Bonus Reads: “Health Experts Link Rise In Arizona Coronavirus Cases To End Of Stay-At-Home Order” (NPR) and “Texas Calls In A Strike Force To Try To Slow Coronavirus Spread In Nursing Homes” (NPR).

Imperial College London Starts Human Trial of COVID-19 Vaccine; Singapore Plans to Begin Human Trials of Vaccine in August 

Researchers at Imperial College London are set to start human trials of a U.K. government-funded COVID-19 vaccine this week, with 300 healthy human participants between the ages of 18 and 70 set to receive two doses of the vaccine (AP). "If the vaccine shows a promising immune response, then larger Phase III trials would be planned to begin later in the year with around 6,000 healthy volunteers to test its effectiveness," a statement by the U.K. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said. "Ultimately, the researchers hope that if clinical trials are successful, the vaccine could provide protection against COVID-19 both in the UK and around the world" (CNN). The vaccine is the first test of a new “self-amplifying” approach that uses synthetic strands of genetic code, called RNA, based on the virus’ genetic material. When injected, it should prompt a person’s muscle cells to produce virus proteins and thus induce an immune response. The U.K. government has contributed $52.4 million to the vaccine development and the public has donated another $6.3 million. 

Scientists in Singapore are also planning to start human trials of their COVID-19 vaccine from U.S. firm Arcturus Therapeutics in August after seeing promising results in mice so far (Reuters). The vaccine is being evaluated by Singapore’s Duke-NUS Medical school and is also a genetic vaccine, which uses messenger RNA (mRNA). “The fact that it replicates and triggers a very balanced immune response, both in terms of the antibody and killer cells - those are welcome properties,” Ooi Eng Eong, deputy director of the school’s emerging infectious diseases programme, told Reuters on Tuesday.

Red Cross Now Testing All Blood Donations for COVID-19 Antibodies

On Monday, the Red Cross announced that it will begin testing all blood, plasma and platelet donations for COVID-19 antibodies (Red Cross). The press release stated, “The antibody test is authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and may indicate if the donor’s immune system has produced antibodies to the coronavirus, regardless of whether an individual developed symptoms.” Donors will receive their antibody results within a week to 10 days. The Red Cross is hopeful that this new procedure will encourage more donations during the pandemic; however, the donation team notes that donors should schedule an appointment in order to plan for social distancing measures. As CNN notes, “Even though many blood drives continue to be canceled for precautionary reasons, blood donations remain vital, as surgeries and treatments that had been temporarily paused start to take place again.” Bonus Read: “What Zebra Mussels Can Tell Us About Errors In Coronavirus Tests” (NPR).

NIH Launches New COVID-19 Database to “Enable Machine Learning Approaches” to Expedite Research

The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) has just launched a medical database of coronavirus patients in the U.S. to speed up treatment. On Monday, the NIH announced that this effort is part of the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), which will “help scientists analyze these data to understand the disease and develop treatments. This effort aims to transform clinical information into knowledge urgently needed to study COVID-19, including health risk factors that indicate better or worse outcomes of the disease, and identify potentially effective treatments” (NIH). According to the NIH press release, the database will “collect clinical, laboratory and diagnostic data from health care provider organizations nationwide” in order to have information readily accessible to researchers and healthcare workers to expedite coronavirus research and hopefully “improve clinical care.” Information will be made available to anyone who is an approved user, even if that person is not able to contribute any data to the database. The NIH notes that information will be housed in a secure, cloud-based database that is certified through the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program, and users can only access data while logged into the database. Further, “The platform is built to enable machine learning approaches and rigorous statistical analyses, identifying connections and patterns more quickly than can be done through traditional methodologies.” According to the Director of the Center for Data to Health at the Oregon Health & Science University School of Medicine and Director of Translational Data Science at Oregon State University, Dr. Melissa Haendel, “By leveraging our collective data resources, unparalleled analytics expertise, and medical insights from expert clinicians, we can catalyze discoveries that address this pandemic that none of us could enable alone.”

During Pandemic Isolation Has Significant Consequences for Kids 

Pediatricians and psychologists are growing concerned about the effects of prolonged isolation on children. Many experts are worried that children miss out on the essential benefits of socialization amid the pandemic and may be facing dire consequences in the future. Research from JAMA Pediatrics based on data collected in the Hubei province in China found that coronavirus-related isolation caused nearly 23 percent of elementary students to have symptoms of depression and 19 percent to have symptoms of anxiety. Rebecca Rialon Berry, associate professor of child and adolescent psychiatry at New York University, stated, "There's a key connection between having good peer interactions and social-emotional well-being. In certain populations, we're seeing that our depression and anxiety are heightening with continued quarantining. We have to start talking about the calculated risk and taking some more" (WSJ).

Bonus Read: “Looking at Masks and Respiratory Health” (NYT).

Around the World

Europe

European Countries Open Borders Again to Other Europeans

On Monday, a number of European countries reopened their borders to other Europeans in an effort to boost their economies by salvaging what is left of the summer holiday season (NYT). The European Commission launched a website, called “Re-open EU,” dedicated to information on travel to and within European countries. Belgium, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Greece were among those to lift restrictions on Monday, with Italy having opened its borders last week (AFP). Spain took a cautious, experimental approach, allowing a planeload of German tourists to fly into the Balearic Islands and announced they would be opening borders more broadly on June 21, which is a week ahead of their original schedule (France24). But the Spanish foreign minister, Arancha Gonzalez Laya, told BBC that Spain would be considering a quarantine on British travelers in response to a similar policy in the U.K. (Reuters). The U.K. and Spain have been the two hardest-hit European countries. While global health experts and scientists warn that a second wave is coming and uncertainty remains throughout the EU bloc, European countries are attempting to balance public health with economic realities. 

Norway Stops Tracking App Over Privacy Concerns 

Norway has halted the use of its mobile phone contact tracing app, called Smittestopp (infection stop), after the country’s data privacy watchdog said it was more invasive than the situation warranted (Straits Times, Politico). The Norwegian Institute of Public Health stopped gathering information and deleted all data from the app after Norway’s Data Protection Authority warned that it would ban the processing of personal information associated with the app. "Smittestopp is a very invasive measure, even in an exceptional situation where society is trying to fight a pandemic," the Data Protection Authority said in a statement. "The legality of Smittestopp depends on the social benefits." Only 16 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in Norway and the country has largely escaped from the widespread infection seen in other European countries. While Smittestopp had been downloaded 1.6 million times, the number of active users has dropped to only 600,000 since mid-April, at the height of the pandemic. Other countries have also struggled with building a contact tracing app that adheres to European data regulations. Bonus Read: “Germany’s Coronavirus Tracing App Won’t Work” (Bloomberg).

France’s Daily Death Toll Under 30 for Sixth Consecutive Day, Cafes in Paris Reopen

For the sixth day in a row, France’s single-day death toll was under 30, which has been a significant improvement for the country, which has the fifth-highest coronavirus death toll in the world (Reuters). The number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 and those in intensive care units also fell, following a downward trend seen in the past few weeks. The new figures were published the day after President Emmanuel Macron said he was accelerating the country’s exit from lockdown and allowing the reopening of cafes and restaurants in Paris (BBC, AFP). 

Finland Ends Use of Emergency Powers 

On Monday, Finland’s Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, ended the country’s emergency powers in tandem with Finland's government ending its lockdown (Bloomberg). The Prime Minister said it will receive the necessary authorizations to prepare for a second wave and re-invoke emergency powers if needed. Marin said: "Several areas of Finland have seen no new cases in several weeks, and there have been fewer than 10 deaths in the country during June. Just over 7,000 people are confirmed to have been infected and 326 have died."

Asia

Beijing Starts Mass Testing to Combat New Outbreak, Reimposes Travel Ban

Beijing has started testing hundreds of thousands of people for the coronavirus in a renewed effort to eliminate the outbreak which has made a comeback after dozens of new cases were reported over the weekend. As we covered in Monday’s brief, the city’s largest fruit and vegetable market was closed after dozens of people tested positive. Now, almost 100,000 community workers have been deployed to test everyone who worked at the market or had visited it. Beijing also banned high-risk people from leaving the capital and stopped some transportation services, like outbound taxi and car-hailing services and long-distance bus routes, on Tuesday in an effort to cut off the outbreak before it spreads to other cities and provinces (Reuters). More than 77,000 people were tested on Sunday and 200,000 on Monday, according to Beijing municipal authorities (WaPo). 

Singapore to Remove Most Coronavirus Restrictions by Friday

Singapore’s health ministry said on Monday that it will allow small gatherings and restaurants, shops, gyms, parks, and beaches will be permitted to reopen starting on June 19 in what is considered a major easing of the city-state’s coronavirus restrictions (Reuters). After more than two months, the majority of activities will be allowed to resume but social distancing measures will remain in place. Singapore has had one of the highest infection rates in Asia, with more than 40,000 cases, mostly due to mass outbreaks in dormitories that house its migrant workers, as we’ve covered in previous briefs. 

With Their Health System Overrun, Afghans Seek “Vaccine” from Herbalist

An herbal clinic in Kabul became a bastion of hope for many Afghans who were drawn to what was billed as a COVID-19 “vaccine” as the country’s healthcare system falters (NYT). Although laboratory tests showed the concoction was just several types of narcotics and nothing that would be effective in preventing COVID-19, when the government tried to shut down the clinic residents protested by blocking roads and burning tires. And although the government has since forced the herbalist to leave the city, the ordeal shows that residents are desperate for help as the virus makes its way around the capital. Afghan officials have said that they simply do not have the capacity to carry out the necessary testing to contain the pandemic and the hospitals are overrun, unable to treat everyone who is sick. The government has been focused on managing violence in its war with the Taliban and aid from other countries is drying up as many are dealing with their own problems from the pandemic. While the health ministry has said that there are 25,000 cases of coronavirus and just under 500 deaths, those numbers are “at best an indication of a catastrophic picture, not an accurate count,” as the New York Times reports.

New Zealand and Australia

New Zealand Records Two New Cases

After declaring the coronavirus pandemic eradicated last week, New Zealand authorities confirmed two new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, ending the country’s 24-day period with no new infections (NYT). The new cases were two travelers who had returned from Britain. The two travelers were female relatives who tested positive after being released early from a state-managed quarantine and traveled by private vehicle from Brisbane to Auckland after a close family member died. The country’s director-general of health, Dr. Ashley Bloomfield, told reporters that he did not believe the women infected anyone else since they did not use any public facilities and had only been in contact with a single family member since arriving (WaPo).

U.S. Government & Politics

U.S. Government Watchdogs Warn Congress Regarding Trump Administration Efforts to Block Oversight of More Than $1 trillion in Coronavirus Response Spending

Last week government watchdogs warned Congress regarding the Trump administration’s efforts to use previously unknown legal rulings to curtail oversight of more than $1 trillion in coronavirus response spending (WaPo). According to the Washington Post, “In a letter to four congressional committee chairs Thursday, two officials in charge of a new government watchdog entity revealed that the Trump administration had issued legal rulings curtailing independent oversight of Cares Act funding.” Amid pressure over the warning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he would work with Congress on new oversight measures, though Democrats remain concerned.

NYC Mayor de Blasio Asks Contact Tracers Not to Ask Positive Cases If They've Attended Black Lives Matter Protests

New York City has recently hired 1,000 contact tracers to help curb the coronavirus spread. However, these workers will not ask confirmed positive cases about participation in protests against racial injustice, unless the person being tested explicitly mentions the demonstrations. Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for New York City Mayor de Blasio, told The City, "No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest. If a person wants to proactively offer that information, there is an opportunity for them to do so." The City initially reported that contact tracers were barred from asking questions about the protests, but Cohen told Fox News that tracers are not prohibited from asking, but it is not part of the questions asked by tracers during preliminary screenings (Fox, The City, National Review).

President Trump Responds to Coronavirus-Related Criticism of Upcoming Rally

On Monday, President Trump responded to criticism of his upcoming rally in Tulsa based on fears that it could spread the coronavirus accusing the media of double standards (Politico). Trump tweeted: “The Far Left Fake News Media, which had no Covid problem with the Rioters & Looters destroying Democrat run cities, is trying to Covid Shame us on our big Rallies.” As Politico notes, the tweet continues “a pattern of failing to distinguish between the majority peaceful protesters and those who engaged in property destruction and looting at some of the events.” Trump’s comment comes as the media and public health officials have received broader criticism from some who accuse them of hypocrisy over the way coronavirus risk is treated with regards to ongoing protests over police brutality and racism as opposed to other political activities. 

U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Father Dies of COVID-19

On Monday, Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN-5) stated that her father Nur Omar Mohamed died of COVID-19 complications on Monday night (KARE, Fox, Politico). Omar stated, “It is with tremendous sadness and pain to say goodbye to my father, Nur Omar Mohamed. No words can describe what he meant to me and all who knew and loved him.”

U.S. Economy

U.S. States Experience Drops in Tax Revenue

According to a report by Arizona State University, MIT Sloan, and Old Dominion University, tax revenues are expected to drop by more than 30 percent in at least 10 states due to the coronavirus-related economic downturn. The report asserts that, on average, states will suffer a 20 percent decrease in tax revenue due to the pandemic. New York is expected to face a tax revenue drop of 40 percent while Alaska, Washington, D.C., and South Dakota are expecting less than a four percent decrease in tax revenue (Bloomberg).

Travel Demand Recovery Years Away Reports Kayak

According to the popular travel website, Kayak, travel demand will not return to 2019 levels until 2023 due to the long-term impact of the coronavirus. Online searches in the U.S. for domestic flights are down 42 percent compared to last year. Further, searches for international flights are down 62 percent. Kayak CEO Steve Hafner discussed the pandemic's effects on travel in an interview stating, "Consumer confidence will take time to return, and supply will take a long time to return. The issue is not on the rental car or hotel side; it's on the flight side. Airlines don't want to operate flights they lose money on. They will be rational about how they bring those schedules back” (Bloomberg).

U.S. Stocks Gain as Federal Reserve Announces Bond Buying

On Monday, U.S. stocks recovered some of their previous losses after the Federal Reserve announced a pledge to buy corporate bonds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4 percent. The stocks rose amid new outbreaks of the coronavirus in U.S. states and China, which initially caused the stocks to open lower. Matt Maley, the chief strategist for Miller Tabak and Co., discussed the Federal Reserve and the market: "The initial reaction seems to be that the Fed still has the market's back even though they expect the economy to be weak for a longer time frame. The Fed is telling the markets that they want to keep credit spreads under control" (WSJ, Bloomberg, NPR).

Major U.S. Banks Face House Probe on Loans; JPMorgan Chase to Bring Back Traders Next Week

The Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis is set to investigate banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The probe is going to look to see if the banks favored larger companies over smaller, rural, and minority-owned companies when disbursing small business loans. A letter sent by the House committee stated, "Some large lenders apparently created a two-tier system for processing PPP loan applications. The banks' wealthiest clients had access to a personalized application process that ensured their applications were processed first" (Bloomberg).

Separately, JPMorgan Chase plans to start bringing back traders to its New York Trading floors. The bank plans to use a phased approach to bring back employees. The company will begin with 20 percent of its sales and trading staff being returned to the office, and increase to 50 percent of New York-based traders brought back by mid-July (Bloomberg).

U.S. Society

Texas Armed Lockdown Protester and Boogaloo Member Arrested on Drug Charges

On Saturday, the Department of Justice issued a press release announcing that Philip Russell Archibald, a north Texas bodybuilder, had been arrested and charged with conspiracy to distribute controlled substances, specifically steroids (Fox).  Though the charge involved drugs, the government mentioned his role in the so-called Boogaloo movement, a group of people with anti-government views who have coalesced around the phrase Boogaloo as a reference to a perceived upcoming civil war, to justify his continued detention prior to trial. The press release stated, “At Mr. Archibald's detention hearing, prosecutors argued that the defendant posed a threat to the community, noting that the defendant, who has been tied publicly with the anti-government Boogaloo movement, used his social media accounts to advocate vigilante ‘guerrilla warfare’ against the National Guardsman patrolling Black Lives Matter protests. In a recent Facebook post, he claimed to be ‘hunting Antifa’ and threatened to ‘kill’ looters.” Archibald had previously been profiled by Texas Monthly - in a piece we covered in a previous brief - for his role in organizing armed protests of Texas’ coronavirus lockdown policies (Texas Monthly). The arrest comes amid other arrests tied to the so-called Boogaloo movement including that of Steven Carrillo, a man charged in an ambush of police in California that killed one person, and who is suspected of being tied to another deadly attack on a federal security officer in Oakland (Yahoo News). In another case, the FBI accused three Nevada men, alleged to be part of the Boogaloo movement, of plotting to use firebombing to spark escalation around protests over the killing of George Floyd (WaPo).

Oscars Delayed Until April 25

On Monday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences stated the Oscars would be pushed to April 25, 2021 from the original date of February 28, 2021 due to coronavirus concerns. The Academy also extended the eligibility deadline for awards to February 28 from December 31. The Academy said: "Our hope, in extending the eligibility period and our awards date, is to provide the flexibility filmmakers need to finish and release their films without being penalized for something beyond anyone's control. For over a century, movies have played an important role in comforting, inspiring, and entertaining us during the darkest of times. They certainly have this year" (NYT).

Pandemic Disrupts and Postpones Adoptions

Around the world, and in the United States, the pandemic has postponed and disrupted adoptions as social distancing and border closures have disrupted proceedings and prevented the transfer of adopted children to their new families, particularly with regards to international adoptions (CNN). One international adoption agency, Holt International, has 250 adoptions on hold, according to Susan Cox, its vice president of policy and external affairs.

Reopened Baseball Season in Doubt

On Monday, Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred said he was “not confident” there would be a 2020 baseball season citing a lack of communication with the player’s league (ESPN). The comments come as the league told the Player’s Association that a season would only occur if players waived their right to a grievance hearing and claims dating from March (LAT). Plans for a baseball season this year were initially disrupted by the coronavirus, and the current ongoing tensions between the league and the players raises questions about whether it will be able to implement its reopening plan.

Bonus Reads: Business Travel Won’t be Taking Off Soon Amid Coronavirus” (WSJ) and “As Pandemic Tests Public Schools, Betsy DeVos Pushes School Choice” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Carvell Wallace writes on his experience of parenting his “black teenagers through protest and pandemic” (NYT).

Amanda Mull warns of the risks and costs of moving out of big cities as a panic response to coronavirus (Atlantic).

Janette Sadik-Khan, a former commissioner of New York City’s Department of Transportation, and Seth Solomonow argue that coronavirus related fears of public transportation got ahead of the actual evidence on the issue (Atlantic).

Miriam Pawel argues that coronavirus and police brutality protests have challenged claims that California is exceptional compared to other parts of the country (NYT).

Former New America fellow Rachel Aviv writes on the punishment inflicted by coronavirus on America’s prison inmates (New Yorker).

Texas has adopted a coronavirus response approach that puts the onus on individuals (Texas Monthly).

Jennifer Doudna writes on how the pandemic is causing science to accelerate (Economist).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by Peter Bergen and co-edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk, Emily Schneider, David Sterman, and Narisara Murray, with Brenden McMullen.

Read previous briefs here: https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/blog/new-america-coronavirus-daily-brief/

About New America

New America is dedicated to renewing the promise of America by continuing the quest to realize our nation's highest ideals. Read the rest of our story, or see what we've been doing recently in our latest Annual Report. 

Help us to continue advancing policy solutions and journalism by making a donation to New America.