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May 3, 2021 - Brief Issue 191

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus May 6.

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Top Headlines

Covid-19 Crisis Accelerates in India; Fauci Urges India to Lock Down (Health & Science)

White House Announces New Steps in Push for Widespread Vaccination (Health & Science)

As Variants Spread and Restrictions Loosen, Younger Adults Are Filling Up Covid-19 Hospital Beds (Health & Science)

Vaccination Rates Flag Among Police Officers (Health & Science)

Global Covid Cases Are Surging (Around the World)

EU Plans to Reopen to Fully Vaccinated Tourists (Around the World)

Canada Holds J&J Vaccine Over Emergent Link (Around the World)

Brazil’s President Being Investigated for Pandemic Response (Around the World)

TSA Will Keep Transportation Mask Mandate in Place (U.S. Government & Politics)

Amid Clashes Over Covid Restrictions, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem Rises as GOP Presidential Prospect (U.S. Government & Politics)

Americans Buying Stocks in Record Numbers (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Savings Could Drive Growth - If People Use Them (U.S. Economy)

Black Homeowners Falling Behind on Mortgages (U.S. Economy)

Miami School Becomes a Beacon for Anti-Vaxxers (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 32,421,924 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 577,045 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 436,289,138 tests and administered 245,591,469 vaccine doses, with 44.3% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 31.6% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 152,903,901 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,203,494 deaths. At least 89,674,765 people have recovered from the virus.

Covid-19 Crisis Accelerates in India; Fauci Urges India to Lock Down

The average daily count of new Covid-19 cases shot up to 800,000 over the past week, marking a new global record (NYT). India accounts for over 40% of new daily cases worldwide; over 3,000 people are dying every day, a number that might still be an underestimate. The county set a global record on Saturday with over 400,000 new cases recorded in a single day, and experts predict that the outbreak will not slow anytime soon (WaPo). Hospitals in New Delhi, India’s capital, are suffering from oxygen shortages. Less than 2% of the country is fully vaccinated against Covid-19, and less than 10% is at least partially vaccinated. Indian officials said all adults will be eligible for the shot as of Saturday, but supplies are scarce. 

U.S. chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said the crisis in India is “like a war,” encouraging the Indian government to employ its military to help with the vaccine rollout. He also pushed for a nationwide lockdown. The White House announced it would start restricting travel from the U.S. to India this coming Tuesday, with exemptions for citizens or lawful permanent residents and their close relatives (NYT). 

Meanwhile, in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party lost a key election in West Bengal on Sunday in what could be a response to Modi’s handling of the pandemic, especially given this most recent wave of infections (NYT). Modi declared a premature victory over the virus in late January then continued to hold large rallies that many health experts suspected were contributing to the spread of the virus. Many Indians were surprised the elections were even held as the country is facing its greatest crisis in decades.

White House Announces New Steps in Push for Widespread Vaccination 

On Friday, federal health officials announced that over 100 million Americans – close to 40% of the adult population – had been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 (NYT). Despite this milestone, some experts fear the country has reached a tipping point where supply for vaccine doses exceeds demand. The rate of vaccine administration had declined 25% from the April 13 peak of 3.38 million doses per day as of Friday, and surveys show deep-seated vaccine skepticism among some American demographic groups. In response, the Biden administration is ramping up its vaccination campaign. Officials are working to improve access to walk-in appointments, especially at doctors’ offices. “We know that around 80 percent of people who are trying to decide about a vaccine say that they want to talk to their doctor about that decision,” said surgeon general Dr. Vivek Murthy. “And we’ve heard that loud and clear.” The Biden administration is also investing $3 billion to fight Covid-19 misinformation on social media platforms like Facebook. To streamline vaccine appointment-making, the White House updated Vaccines.gov, a site with information about vaccines, to include an appointment search tool, and launched a vaccine text line (NPR). 

As Variants Spread and Restrictions Loosen, Younger Adults Are Filling Up Covid-19 Hospital Beds

Although Covid-19 numbers are falling on the whole in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that younger people – those under 50 years old – now make up the greatest percentage of nationwide hospitalizations, at 35%, while hospitalization rates have fallen sharply for seniors (NPR). People under 50 aren’t likely to die from Covid-19, but they can suffer lingering complications, including lung damage and heart issues. According to Judith Malmgren, a University of Washington epidemiologist, these rising infections among younger adults could eventually translate into higher case counts across demographic groups. 

Experts trace this trend to the spread of more contagious variants, mainly B.1.1.7. Even if this strain doesn’t necessarily make people more severely ill, a study published in The Lancet found, it does result in higher viral loads and is estimated to be 40% to 70% more contagious than earlier strains. "B.1.1.7 doesn't discriminate by age, and when it comes to young people, our messaging on this is still too soft," Malmgren said. Because variants like B.1.1.7 are so contagious, a greater percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated to slow the spread of Covid-19 (WSJ). Only 18% of 18- to 29-year-olds are fully vaccinated against the disease, compared to 27% of people in their 30’s and 32% of people in their 40’s. According to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll from the Kaiser Family, young adults are among the groups most likely to express hesitancy or indecision about getting vaccinated. 

Vaccination Rates Flag Among Police Officers

Data from U.S. law enforcement agencies show that Covid-19 vaccination rates among police officers are equal to or lower than those of the general public, even though officers are considered front-line workers (WaPo). According to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, police officers were more likely to die of Covid-19 last year than anything else because of high comorbidity rates within the profession, but now, many police departments are struggling to get officers vaccinated. Union officials and policing and policy experts trace this reluctance to sentiments already common among the American public – concerns about vaccine safety, trust in personal protective equipment, and the belief that getting vaccinated isn’t necessary after prior infection. Leaders of police departments are hesitant to mandate vaccines, fearing politicization and legal backlash. 

Minority Groups in The U.K. More Likely to Experience Severe Covid-19 Outcomes

A U.K. study funded by the Medical Research Council and published in The Lancet identified clear disparities in Covid-19 outcomes between ethnic and racial groups. Analyzing health data of over 17 million adults from February 1 to August 3rd of last year, researchers found that even though differences in testing were minor, all minority ethnic groups were more likely than white people to test positive for the virus and experience serious outcomes, including hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. Data from September 1 to December 31 showed worsening inequality for the South Asian group, but lessened inequality for other ethnic groups compared to the white population. The models were adjusted for several factors, such as age, sex, comorbidities, and household size. The researchers inferred from their results that the risk of viral exposure, which increases with household size, might play a bigger role in unfavorable Covid-19 outcomes than the inherent risk of severe illness, especially among South Asian people. This study supports other data illuminating stark disparities in Covid-19 risk and outcomes.

Bonus Read: “Some Schools Skip Student Quarantines,” (WaPo).

Around the World

Global Covid Cases Are Surging

Although most eyes are on India as it struggles to stay afloat in its second wave of the pandemic, countries around the globe are battling rising infection numbers (CNN). On Thursday, Turkey entered its first national lockdown as its infection rates are now the highest in Europe. On Monday, Iran reported its highest daily Covid-19 death toll so far as President Hassan Rouhani said the country is suffering a fourth wave of infections. The virus is ravaging South America, too, with Brazil reporting more than 14.5 million confirmed cases and nearly 400,000 deaths. But Brazil is not alone; across the entire continent governments are struggling with political instability, underfunded health systems, and an increase in poverty. Last week, South America, home to 5.5% of the world’s population, suffered nearly 32% of all reported Covid deaths (Guardian). On Sunday, Argentina recorded 3 million cases since the pandemic began and medical workers said hospitals were at capacity (Reuters). Argentina’s president, Alberto Fernandez, unveiled a new round of tougher restrictions to try to combat the second wave currently sweeping the country. Bonus Read: “India’s Covid-19 Catastrophe Reflects Years of Neglecting its Health System,” (STAT).

Europe

EU Plans to Reopen to Fully Vaccinated Tourists 

Under a European Commission plan announced on Monday, tourists from countries with low Covid infection rates and those who have been fully vaccinated will be allowed to travel to the EU by the start of June. Commission officials said that with the rate of vaccination rising “dramatically” in EU member states, it was time to relax rules on non-essential travel, although they would retain an “emergency brake” that would allow them to ban free movement again if necessary (NYT). The new proposal would increase the threshold of a 14-day cumulative covid case rate from 25 to 100 per 100,000 people (Guardian). Officials from member states are meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to debate the new plan. 

EU Escalates Fight with AstraZeneca

The European Commission and AstraZeneca met in court this week as the European Union demands that the company sends vaccines from two U.K. production sites to the EU to fulfill its contractual obligations (Politico). A provision in the contract states that the Commission and participating member states "waive and release any claim against AstraZeneca arising out of or relating to … delays in the delivery of the Vaccine under this Agreement." Although the contract explicitly states that the EU won’t sue over delivery delays, the EU’s lawsuit “might be just as much about showing it won’t be pushed around by a drug company as it is about securing doses,” writes Politico. AstraZeneca is now set to deliver just 70 million of 180 million doses promised in the second quarter of the year, on top of supplying only 30 million out of 120 million scheduled by the end of March. Only two sites in the EU and one backup plant in the U.S. have made drug substance for the EU’s vaccine doses. Two other U.K. plants included in the EU’s contract haven’t been used to make substance for EU doses. The hearing is scheduled for May 26 in Brussels.

Bonus Read: “Russian Attempts to Expand Sputnik Vaccine Set Off Discord in Europe,” (NYT).

Americas

Canada Holds J&J Vaccine Over Emergent Link

Canada’s drug regulator, Health Canada, said on Tuesday that it was withholding the release of the country’s first shipment of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to verify its safety and quality. Initially, the regulator said that none of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, developed by the company’s Janssen subsidiary, had been made at the Emergent BioSolutions factory in Baltimore, which had discarded millions of doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine that was possibly contaminated (NYT). Then, in a statement issued on Friday evening, it said that since Tuesday it had “learned that a drug substance produced at the Emergent site was used in the manufacturing of the initial Janssen vaccines.” Vaccine production at the plant has been suspended; up to 15 million doses of the J&J shot made there were thrown away due to contamination fears after the FDA learned that Emergent did not fully investigate the contamination and found problems with the plant’s disinfection practices, design, and how it handled raw materials.

Brazil’s President Being Investigated for Pandemic Response

Brazil’s Senate has launched a new inquiry into President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with the panel convening for the first time last Tuesday. Members of the commission are expected to undertake a serious probe into the President’s mishandling of the pandemic. “It is a true health, economic, and political tragedy, and the main responsibility lies with the president,” said Sen. Humberto Costa, an opposition member of the commission. Costa, who is also a former health minister, told The Intercept that he believes there is enough evidence to conclude that Bolsonaro committed “crimes against humanity.” Over 400,000 Brazilians have died from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic and Bolsonaro’s cavalier attitude toward the fate of his countrymen, failure to institute nation-wide restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, and political spats with state and local officials who did try to implement limitations, have all sparked outrage among the public. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Delayed Census Data Kicks Off Flood of Redistricting Lawsuits,” (Politico).

TSA Will Keep Transportation Mask Mandate in Place

The Transportation Security Administration voted Friday to extend a mandate requiring passengers to wear masks on planes, at airports, and on public transportation, as travel continues to increase across the country (NPR, NYT). This mask mandate, instated by the Biden administration, was set to expire May 11, but will now last through September 13th after airline industry workers pushed for an extension. Airlines were requiring masks as early as last spring, but the White House’s mandate, which offers exceptions for babies and the medically exempt,  wasn’t put in place until this February. 

Amid Clashes Over Covid Restrictions, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem Rises as GOP Presidential Prospect

South Dakota’s Republican Governor Kristi Noem is rising in stature as a potential GOP presidential prospect amid prominent clashes with the health officials and the White House over Covid restrictions (NYT). In 2020, Noem hewed close to Trump sparking speculation that she might replace Pence as the 2020 Vice Presidential candidate and came in second in the CPAC straw poll. Part of Noem’s appeal derives from her clashes with health officials over Covid restrictions. The New York Times notes that her public, pithy disputes with figures like Dr. Anthony Fauci appeal to parts of the conservative base, and writes, “Despite the state’s high Covid death toll per capita, and the outbreak stemming from the Sturgis motorcycle rally that drew nearly 500,000 biker enthusiasts last fall, many Republicans in South Dakota believe that the governor’s opposition to shutdowns contributed to South Dakota’s lowest-in-the-country unemployment rate, kept tourists coming and made the state newly appealing to transplants.” 

At the same time, Noem has clashed with socially conservative parts of the Republican base around her partial veto of a bill that would have barred transgender girl from school sports. The Times notes that part of the reason Noem vetoed the bill was likely related to the potential impact on tourism to the state, which lacks industry, an economic concern that shares aspects with her decision to buck health official guidance on Covid restrictions.

U.S. Economy

Americans Buying Stocks in Record Numbers

The Wall Street Journal reports that “Americans are all in on the stock market,” owning more stock than ever before (WSJ). According to the Journal, Americans are also increasingly borrowing to purchase stocks and buying more stock when there are smaller shifts in stock prices. The Journal writes, “Stockholdings among U.S. households increased to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record. That is according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Federal Reserve data going back to 1952 that includes 401(k) retirement accounts.” The increase comes amid the pandemic, and the Journal writes, “Millions of new brokerage accounts were created during the Covid-19 pandemic and some investors who first tried their hands at stock or options trading over the past year have stuck around.”

Pandemic Savings Could Drive Growth - If People Use Them

Amid the pandemic, Western households saved an “unprecedented” amount of money, according to the Wall Street Journal, a dynamic that could help fuel surging economic growth as the pandemic wanes (WSJ). However, it is not clear that people will spend the money they have saved. Alfred Kammer, head of the International Monetary Fund’s European department told the Journal, “There’s lots of uncertainty about how that’s going to unwind and how it will support the recovery.” One issue is that much of the pandemic-era savings is held by older and richer people who are less likely to spend their savings quickly. Bonus Read: “From Apple to Domino’s Pizza, U.S. Companies Scramble to Meet Surge in Demand,” (WSJ).

Black Homeowners Falling Behind on Mortgages

Despite the inclusion of a mortgage forbearance program in the Covid stimulus bill, Black homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes regarding the data, “The share of Black homeowners in forbearance stood at about 11% in mid-April, more than double the overall rate and that of white borrowers, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The rate for Hispanic homeowners hovered around 8.4%.” While the forbearance program has helped many, with the overall rate of those in forbearance declining over the past eight weeks, the racial disparity also appears in the program. The Journal writes, “the share of Black homeowners in forbearance fell 35%, compared with a 43% drop overall.” In comparison, “Asian, white and Hispanic borrowers saw improvement rates of between 45% and 53%.” The disparity on mortgage status may reflect the greater health and economic impact of the pandemic on Black Americans. The Journal notes, “Black Americans bore the brunt of coronavirus layoffs: The unemployment rate for Black workers stood at 9.6% in March, compared with 6% overall and 5.4% for white workers. Black Americans are also about twice as likely to die from Covid-19 as white Americans, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

U.S. Society

Miami School Becomes a Beacon for Anti-Vaxxers

Centner Academy in Miami has become a “beacon” for anti-vaxxers, and the New York Times explores the reasons why (NYT). On Wednesday, the school made news when a science teacher spread a conspiracy theory to students, saying that it was risky to hug vaccinated parents because of “vaccine shedding.” The week before, the school had made news for threatening to terminate the employment of teachers who got vaccinated. While many parents sought to pull their children from the school in the wake of the news, the Times notes, “Inside the Centner Academy, however, ‘hundreds of queries from all over the world’ came in for teaching positions, according to the administration. More came from people who wanted to enroll their children at the school, where tuition runs up to $30,000 a year. The small school in Miami’s trendy Design District became a national beacon for anti-vaccination activists practically overnight.” Part of the school’s notoriety is driven by Leila Centner, who took over running the school during the pandemic. The Times reports, “interviews with 21 current and former parents and teachers, as well as a review of social media posts and of school documents, emails, text messages and videos, show how the wealthy and well-connected Ms. Centner brought her anti-vaccination and anti-masking views into the school’s day-to-day life, turning what had been a tightknit community into one bitterly split between those who support her views on vaccinations and those who do not.” Meanwhile, the Times notes that Ms. Centner posted on Instagram on Friday that she would be speaking at a “freedom-fighting festival” with the theme “Reopen America” alongside controversial Trump associates Michael Flynn and Roger J. Stone Jr.

Analysis & Arguments

2020 New America, New Arizona Fellow Dr. Daniela Lamas writes on the role and importance of lung transplants for some patients in the wake of Covid (NYT).

Ibram X. Kendi argues that data on racial disparities in the pandemic’s impact remain woefully insufficient (Atlantic).

Esther Honig writes on what Mexican farmworkers have experienced in the U.S. amid the pandemic (Nation).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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