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Iran War Scrambles Calculus for Central Banks
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- European central bankers warned the escalating Middle East war would increase inflation and reduce economic growth.
- The Bank of England signaled readiness to raise interest rates if inflation threatened to become persistent.
- The European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for the year to 2.6% from 1.9% due to energy costs.
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Asian Central Banks Shift to Sidelines as Mideast Conflict Drags On
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- Central banks in Asia and globally largely held interest rates this week amid the Middle East conflict, putting rate cuts off the table.
- Governments across Asia are using fiscal measures like fuel subsidies and price caps to soften the blow to consumers.
- The Bank of Japan is monitoring oil prices for underlying inflation, while Bank Indonesia prioritizes rupiah stability.
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U.S. Leading Indicators Forecast Further Slowdown
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- The Conference Board cut its 2026 U.S. growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0% due to the war in Iran.
- The Leading Economic Index, published by The Conference Board, declined 0.1% in January to 97.5.
- Senior manager Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said the January LEI decline signals continued headwinds to U.S. economic activity.
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U.S Jobless Claims Fell Last Week
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- U.S. jobless claims fell to 205,000 in the week through March 14, lower than the prior week’s 213,000, the Labor Department said.
- Continuing claims rose to 1.86 million in the week through March 7, up from 1.85 million a week earlier, lagging initial claims data.
- The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, forecasting a 4.4% unemployment rate in 2026, while jobless claims suggest companies retain staff.
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Big Banks Score Win Under New Plan to Loosen Capital Rules
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- Federal Reserve and other regulators unveiled proposals allowing America’s biggest banks to hold billions of dollars less in capital.
- The changes would cumulatively let the largest banks hold 2.4% less capital, or roughly $20 billion less, on average.
- Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr cast the sole dissenting vote, fearing a “race to the bottom on standards.”
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Major League Baseball Steps Into the Prediction Markets, Strikes Deal With Polymarket
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- Major League Baseball signed a licensing deal with Polymarket, making it the league’s official prediction-markets platform.
- MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig signed an MOU to exchange information on game integrity.
- Prediction markets face legal challenges from U.S. states, while the CFTC asserts federal jurisdiction over them.
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About Us
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you news and analysis from a global team of reporters and editors at The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to service@dowjones.com. An artificial-intelligence tool created these summaries, which are based on the text of the article and checked by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.
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