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January 27, 2021 - Brief Issue 143

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Global Coronavirus Cases Top 100 Million (Health & Science)

First U.S. Case of Brazil Coronavirus Variant Found in Minnesota (Health & Science)

Regeneron Antibody Cocktail Prevents Coronavirus Infection, According to Study (Health & Science)

CDC Researchers Say School Reopening Can Be Done Safely (Health & Science)

Calm Returns to the Netherlands Amid Heavy Police Presence (Around the World)

Colombian Defense Minister Dies of Covid-19 (Around the World)

Cuba’s January Death Toll Nearly as Bad as Previous Six Months Combined (Around the World)

E.U. Considering Blocking Travel From Japan (Around the World)

Iran Calls for Sanction Relief For Medicine (Around the World)

Israel Looks Toward Full Reopening as Vaccination Progresses Rapidly (Around the World)

Biden Makes Deal with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 Million Additional Vaccine Doses (U.S. Government & Politics)

Democrats Consider Passing Covid Relief Without Republican Support Via Reconciliation (U.S. Government & Politics)

GE Reports Fourth Quarter Cash Flow Surge (U.S. Economy)

Parents of Remote Learners Have Smaller Roles in the Workforce (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 25,455,091 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 425,250 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 295,369,233 tests and distributed 44,394,075 vaccine doses, with 19,902,237 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 100,364,285 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,160,402 deaths. At least 55,490,071 people have recovered from the virus.

Global Coronavirus Cases Top 100 Million

On Tuesday, the world reached the unwelcome milestone of 100 million officially-recorded cases of Covid-19 (WSJ, CNN). With a world population of 7.67 billion, the numbers suggest that about 1 in 76 people have now been infected with the virus. More than two million people have now died from the disease according to official reports, and experts say the real death toll – along with the true infection rate – is likely higher. The U.S. leads the world in absolute numbers of infections and deaths, followed by India and Brazil, though experts say varying testing capacities and reporting procedures make it difficult to know the true numbers.

First U.S. Case of Brazil Coronavirus Variant Found in Minnesota

The first confirmed U.S. case of a coronavirus variant first discovered in Brazil has now been identified in a Minnesota resident who had recently traveled to Brazil (NYT). The state’s department of health said this may suggest the variant is not circulating widely. The variant, known as B.1.1.28.1 or P.1, shares similarities with the variant first identified in South Africa. So far, no cases of the South Africa variant have been detected in the United States. A variant first identified in the U.K. has been detected in 22 states and is thought to be circulating more widely in the U.S.

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, though they still protect against the South Africa variant, are somewhat less effective against it. Experts expect the vaccines to perform similarly against the variant from Brazil. Although the more-prevalent U.K. variant is concerning for its increased infectivity, it is just as susceptible to vaccines as the original strain. The possibility of viral spread of the Brazil variant worries some experts because, in addition to being more infectious, it contains mutations that may help it escape a vaccine. Presidential Covid-19 adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci commented, “the amount of concern that I have between the U.K. variant, and the South African/Brazilian is much, much different.” Experts advise increased caution in light of the dangers posed by new variants, including wearing better quality – or even multiple – masks and reducing the number of shopping trips or other public activities (CNN Health).

Regeneron Antibody Cocktail Prevents Coronavirus Infection, According to Study

Interim data from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease suggests that an antibody cocktail developed by the drug company is effective at preventing Covid-19 in people exposed to infected individuals (CNBC, STAT). According to the preliminary data, the treatment reduced overall infections by about 50% and symptomatic infections by 100%. The antibody cocktail, known as REGEN-COV, is being used as a “passive vaccine,” directly providing virus-neutralizing antibodies to patients. Traditional vaccines activate the body’s own defenses and provide lasting protection from future infections.

Full data from the clinical trial is expected in the spring, and Regeneron intends to discuss the results with U.S. health regulators in hopes of expanding its existing emergency use authorization (EUA). The antibody treatment was originally granted an EUA for the treatment of mild and moderate cases of Covid-19.

CDC Researchers Say School Reopening Can Be Done Safely

In a Viewpoints article published in JAMA on Tuesday, researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued their recommendations for safe reopening of K-12 schools (NYT). The authors cited studies that showed low risk of community transmission for in-person schooling around the world while also acknowledging instances where community transmission was high. Where outbreaks occurred, the researchers said, contributing factors included classroom densities that were too high, exemption from face mask use and recirculating air conditioning. 

The authors advised careful adherence to mask wearing and social distancing, saying that if these measures were put in place, the risk of in-person school could remain low. Indoor athletic activities would likely not be advisable, but other activities like cross-country running might be able to continue. The authors noted that schools provide vital services to children, fulfilling important educational, social and health needs. The recommendations echo those of other experts, who recommend prioritizing reopening of in-person schools ahead of opening businesses like restaurants and bars for indoor services.

British Authorities Work to Address Vaccine Hesitancy Among Minority Groups 

Recent polls out of Britain show that members of Black, Asian and other racial minority communities are more hesitant about receiving a Covid-19 vaccine, out of concerns over reliability (NYT). As in other countries, including the U.S., the pandemic has highlighted racial inequalities, with minority groups often at increased risk of infection, morbidity and death. 

"I am conscious some Londeners are hesitant to receive the Covid vaccine because they are from communities which have, in the past, been let down by institutions," said London Mayor Sadiq Khan. "But these vaccines are safe and effective, and I encourage everyone who is invited to receive one to do so." 

Health experts and government officials have called for more vaccine data to be collected across different ethnic backgrounds as the vaccines are distributed, hoping that a larger data set will increase people’s confidence in vaccines. Local officials are sending out messages in multiple languages assuring residents that the vaccines are safe and effective. Government officials are partnering with religious and community leaders to combat misinformation and raise awareness about vaccination programs. 

Around the World

World Economy Threatened By Future Coronavirus Surges

A large majority of economists polled by Reuters said there is a high risk of the coronavirus derailing the global economy in 2021. Around 500 economists polled across the Americas, Europe and Asia tended toward modest downgrades or no change compared with their past assessments, even as stocks worldwide have added $33 trillion in value since the beginning of the pandemic in March, with 60% downgrading their outlook. “It is difficult to overstate the importance of the coming months for the global economy and public health. As vaccine rollouts begin the world over, we are racing against time to head off the impact of potentially more contagious strains of the coronavirus,” said Aditya Bhave, global economist at the Bank of America. “The biggest downside risk to the global economy is that vaccines prove to be ineffective against the new mutations. In all, the emergence of a vaccine-resistant, dominant strain could result in a lost quarter for the global economy” (Reuters).

Europe

Calm Returns to the Netherlands Amid Heavy Police Presence

The Netherlands saw a relatively calm night on Tuesday after three days of what has been described as the nation’s most intense civil unrest in four decades. Urban shops throughout the country were boarded up as police patrolled cites seeking to prevent a repeat of the anti-lockdown violence that had inflicted Holland from Saturday through Monday. Nearly 500 people had been arrested over the previous three nights as rioters protesting a new public health curfew threw rocks and fireworks at law enforcement. Police responded with water cannons, tear gas and, in at least one instance, warning shots. As we have previously noted, the demonstrations were sparked after parliament narrowly passed a measure last week to introduce a national nighttime curfew, the first since World War II, in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Bars and restaurants have been closed since October, while schools and non-essential shops were shuttered last month. The country has seen nearly 1 million cases of the coronavirus since the pandemic’s beginning, including more than 13,500 deaths (Reuters).

Sweden Demands Answers on Vaccine Quantity Before It Pays Pfizer

The Swedish government on Tuesday demanded clarity from the E.U. and Pfizer over how much it is paying per vial of vaccine before it sends the money. The controversy stems from Pfizer selling vials labeled for five doses that were later discovered to hold six doses if extracted with a correctly-designed needle. Pfizer therefore began charging the same vial for the price of six doses. The Swedish government in response has demanded clarification for how many doses, exactly, are in a single vial before it pays Pfizer. “This is unacceptable. If a country only has the ability to extract five doses, it has received fewer doses for the same price,” said Sweden’s vaccine coordinator Richard Bergstrom, according to the newspaper Ulrika Goossens (Reuters).

Lockdown May Have Played a Role in Increased Child Homicide in London

The psychological effects of lockdown may have contributed to an increase in the domestic murder of children, the Metropolitan police in London announced Tuesday. While the overall number of murders in London fell from 150 in 2019 to 126 in 2020, domestic homicides increased from 16 to 22. Children accounted for 12 of the victims, up from 7 in 2019. Commander Dave McLaren said that while he could not address individual cases, he suspected that lockdown played a role in the increases. “It is fair to say that mental health has played a part in a number of those crimes this year and it isn’t a massive leap of faith to say that lockdown has an impact on all of us in terms of our wellbeing,” he said. “So I’m sure the impact of lockdown on the mental health of individuals, will have had an impact across the board.” 

Police said other violent crime has also been affected by lockdown restrictions, with Commander Jane Connors noting that knife crime fell in the early parts of 2020 during lockdown before rising above pre-pandemic levels later in the year. “As the restrictions were lifted, as we came out through May, June, July, and into the early part of August, we did start to see that the offense levels rose above pre-Covid level,” she said. “And that predominantly is because there were more people out on the streets, but also because some of the gang tensions that had been playing out on social media and people not able to take their reprisals, we did start to see a slight rise in some of the knife injuries that we were seeing (Guardian).

Americas

Colombian Defense Minister Dies of Covid-19

Colombia’s Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo succumbed to Covid-19 early Tuesday morning at age 69. Trujillo took the top defense posting in November 2019 after serving as foreign minister. He had previously served as mayor of Cali from 1988-1990 during the height of Colombia’s drug war. After leaving office, he held numerous ministerial jobs and diplomatic postings, including ambassadorships to the Organization of American States and the European Union. In 2018 he ran for president, but was defeated by fellow Democratic Center party member Ivan Duque, the current incumbent. He was appointed foreign minister by Duque, playing a key role in unsuccessfully advocating for the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from office in favor of Juan Guaidó. On Tuesday, Duque said he “couldn’t express the pain” in a televised address announcing Trujillo’s passing. “His life was a reflection of vocation for public service,” said Duque (NBC).

Cuba’s January Death Toll Nearly as Bad as Previous Six Months Combined

Deaths thus far in Cuba have been nearly as bad as the previous six months combined as the island nation reported its 200th death on Tuesday. Cases began surging after the government reopened its borders in November. Its infection rate is now approaching the global average. This month has already seen 54 deaths, compared with 60 in the previous six months. New daily case numbers are regularly reaching record numbers, with 786 reported on Tuesday. The government has responded by requiring inbound international travelers to present negative test results. Schools and restaurants are also shuttered throughout much of Cuba, with the state developing its own vaccines that are anticipated to be approved sometime this year. All vaccines in development are currently in the early to mid testing phases (Reuters). 

Asia-Pacific

E.U. Considering Blocking Travel From Japan

The E.U. is considering blocking travel from Japan amid increased caseloads in that country, sources told Bloomberg. An official speaking anonymously told Bloomberg that an updated white list includes just Australia, China, New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand, with Japan freshly omitted from the list (Bloomberg). The news came amid reports that officials in the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga have urged for an extension of the state of emergency affecting much of the country, including Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, among others. Infections in Tokyo reached 1,026 on Tuesday, the first time in three days that the caseload exceeded 1,000. But despite reports that the Japanese government was resigning itself to cancelling the 2021 Summer Olympics, Suga said on Tuesday that the country was still preparing for "safe and secure” games (Kyodo News).

Middle East

Iran Calls for Sanction Relief For Medicine

Iran on Tuesday called for President Biden to ease sanctions interfering with medical supply acquisition in order to combat the pandemic. While sanctions imposed by former President Donald Trump technically permit medicine and other humanitarian supplies, the international banking system has been reluctant to process payments. “Since (Biden’s) administration claims not to be anti-science like the previous one ... one expects it to free the transfer of Iran’s own foreign exchange resources to fight the coronavirus and for health and food, and lift banking sanctions quickly,” government spokesman Ali Rabiei said in televised remarks. Rabiei said that Iran would retaliate by terminating short-notice U.N inspections of nuclear facilities if it did not receive sanction relief. 

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has banned vaccine imports from Moderna, AstraZeneca and Pfizer, citing conspiracy theories that American and British vaccines might be used to spread the virus. Deputy Health Minister Qassem Janbabaei, however, said that the country was considering imports from “AstraZeneca in Sweden” without mentioning the vaccine’s British origins. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said during a Tuesday visit to Moscow that the country was planning to import and produce the Russian-designed Sputnik V vaccine (Reuters).

Israel Looks Toward Full Reopening as Vaccination Progresses Rapidly

Since virtually the beginning of the global Covid-19 vaccine rollout, Israel has led in their vaccination efforts. Speedy and well-organized distribution and communication helped the small country to vaccinate more quickly than any other. Now, 30% of the population has received a first dose of the vaccine, and 14% has received the second (WSJ). For now, life is much the same as it has been for the past year. Public health restrictions are still in place and will be until a sufficient percentage of the population has been vaccinated. However, Israeli officials are looking at a gradual reopening of their economy in February and March, and hopes are high that a full reopening is just over the horizon. Reopening would be dependent on controlling the spread of the more contagious coronavirus variants that have begun spreading in many countries.

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Makes Deal with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 Million Additional Vaccine Doses

President Biden announced Tuesday that the administration was nearing a deal with Pfizer and Moderna for an additional 200 million vaccine doses by the end of the summer (NYT). 100 million doses would be provided by Pfizer and 100 million by Moderna. The order would give the U.S. the ability to vaccinate 300 million Americans by the beginning of fall, but it would likely not accelerate current vaccine distribution. The Trump administration had set a similar timeline for acquiring additional doses of the vaccines. During Biden’s first week in office, however, pressure has mounted to speed vaccine distribution, and the issue has become a top priority within the administration. Bonus Read: “Please, Biden, Try for 2 Million Shots a Day,” (NYT).

Democrats Consider Passing Covid Relief Without Republican Support Via Reconciliation

Democrats are considering passing President Biden’s Covid relief proposal via reconciliation, a process that would allow it to pass without Republican support by avoiding a filibuster (WSJ, Politico). On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) stated, “Time is of the essence to address this crisis. We’re keeping all options open on the table, including using budget reconciliation.” So far the Biden administration has sought to pass a bipartisan bill, but on Monday President Biden commented, “The decision to use reconciliation will depend on how these negotiations go.” Republicans have been critical of the proposed method. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH), commented, “It would exacerbate the partisanship around here; it would make it more difficult to find common ground; and it would therefore be bad for the American people.” 

U.S. Economy

GE Reports Fourth Quarter Cash Flow Surge

General Electric reports that it saw a surge in its cash flow at the end of the fourth fiscal quarter despite the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “General Electric Co. powered through a global pandemic that hobbled its aviation business, reporting a surge in cash flow from other divisions that helped it end 2020 on much firmer footing than it had warned of in the spring. GE booked $4.4 billion in fourth-quarter cash flow, beating its own projection and ending 2020 without burning cash, a year ahead of schedule.” According to the Journal, GE benefitted “by cutting overhead costs and jobs in its aviation unit while streamlining its power business” and also from increased orders for power and renewable energy. GE CEO Larry Culp stated, “We had a strong finish with respect to orders that helped us from a cash perspective, both in power and particularly in renewables, but it was very hard to call as to whether those orders would indeed happen inside the calendar year.”

U.S. Society

Parents of Remote Learners Have Smaller Roles in the Workforce

Parents of children who are learning remotely tend to have smaller roles in the workforce, according to a study released on Tuesday (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “About 47% of parents with children who are learning entirely remotely or are in hybrid situations because of the coronavirus pandemic are working full-time, compared with 71% of parents whose children are physically back in school buildings, according to results of the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study released Tuesday.” The Journal adds, “About 24% of parents whose children are attending school virtually aren’t working at all compared with 15% of parents whose children are attending school in person every day, according to the survey. About 73% of the surveyed parents said their child is learning remotely at least part of the time.” The report helps illustrate the extent of the impact on workers of the shift in caregiving responsibilities that comes when children aren’t physically in school.

Bonus Read: “Mask Fights and a ‘Mob Mentality’: What Flight Attendants Faced Over the Last Year,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

Nicole Anzia writes the pandemic is a good time to reevaluate clothing choices with an eye towards sustainability (WaPo).

Dr. Fauci discusses what it was like working for Trump (NYT).

Biden’s surgeon general nominee talks with Ezra Klein (NYT).

Robinson Meyer writes the pandemic is softening but warns new variants could challenge hopes (Atlantic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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