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February 18, 2021 - Brief Issue 154

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Britain to Become First Country to Conduct Coronavirus Challenge Trials (Health & Science)

Fauci Says It Is “Non-Workable” to Vaccinate All Teachers Before Opening Schools (Health & Science)

Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine May Be Less Potent Against Coronavirus Variant (Health & Science)

Study Finds Pregnancy Associated with Higher Covid-19 Infection Rate (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Cases Declining Worldwide (Health & Science)

EU Commission Approves New Contract for Moderna’s Vaccine (Around the World)

South Africa Starts J&J Vaccine for Healthcare Workers (Around the World)

The Gaza Strip Receives First Vaccine Doses (Around the World)

Japan Begins National Vaccination Campaign (Around the World)

Mexico Says Stop Hoarding Vaccines (Around the World)

New York Sues Amazon Over Pandemic Safety (U.S. Government)

Millions of U.S. Jobs May Be Permanently Lost (U.S. Economy)

Retail Sales in U.S. Rise in January Fueled By Stimulus (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 27,826,814 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 490,540 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 334,986,156 tests and distributed 72,423,125 vaccine doses, with 56,281,827 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 109,943,604 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,431,260 deaths. At least 61,915,237 people have recovered from the virus.

Britain to Become First Country to Conduct Coronavirus Challenge Trials

Britain will soon become the first country to conduct controversial “human challenge trials” with SARS-CoV-2 (WaPo). In a human challenge trial, people are deliberately exposed to a pathogen in order to more quickly and accurately assess the efficacy of vaccines or treatments. In the first stage of the coronavirus challenge trial, set to begin this month, researchers will expose 90 volunteers ages 18 to 30 to small amounts of the coronavirus in order to determine the smallest possible dose needed to cause infection. The goal, they say, is not to cause severe illness, but to reach minimal levels needed for viral replication. Once this minimum threshold is determined, the study will proceed to test vaccines and therapeutics against Covid-19. 

Fauci Says It Is “Non-Workable” to Vaccinate All Teachers Before Opening Schools

On Wednesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, said it is “non-workable” to expect to be able to vaccinate all teachers before reopening schools (Politico). While Dr. Fauci said that teachers should be prioritized for vaccination, he said that requiring every teacher to be vaccinated before a school could open would present severe logistical challenges. Guidelines from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention state that, while teacher vaccinations offer additional protection, they should not be required for school reopening. 

Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine May Be Less Potent Against Coronavirus Variant

A study conducted by Pfizer, BioNTech and the University of Texas Medical Branch found evidence that the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine may be less potent against the B.1.351 coronavirus variant (STAT). In the study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, researchers tested how well blood from vaccinated individuals neutralized a virus engineered to have similar mutations as the B.1.351 variant. They found that there was about a two-thirds drop in neutralizing ability for this variant compared to other forms of the virus. Researchers are not yet sure how this experiment will translate into the real world. Even if a vaccine is less effective at neutralizing a viral variant, it may still be effective at preventing disease. The B.1.351 variant, first discovered by South African researchers and now present in many countries around the world, has already been shown to be less susceptible to other Covid-19 vaccines, including those from AstraZeneca-Oxford, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson.

Study Finds Pregnancy Associated with Higher Covid-19 Infection Rate

According to a study published in the American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology, pregnancy is associated with a 70 percent higher rate of Covid-19 (CIDRAP). The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Washington in Seattle, examined data from 240 pregnant Covid-19 patients in Washington state hospitals. According to the analysis, people who delivered 13.9 per 1,000 newborns were infected with Covid-19, compared with 7.3 per 1,000 Covid-19 infections in the general population aged 20 to 39 years. Non-white pregnant individuals were more likely to present with Covid-19 infections than their white counterparts. The authors of the study wrote that pregnant people should be prioritized for Covid-19 vaccination.

Covid-19 Cases Declining Worldwide

According to the World Health Organization, the number of new Covid-19 cases fell by 16% worldwide over the past week (WaPo). The number of new deaths also dropped, with a 10% decline compared to the previous week. In the U.S., which is still reporting the highest case numbers, cases nonetheless fell by over 23% last week. Cases in Europe have also declined considerably.

White House Plans to Spend $1.6 Billion to Boost Covid-19 Testing, Genomic Sequencing

The White House said Wednesday that it plans to devote $1.6 billion to improving Covid-19 testing and genomic sequencing efforts (Politico). The administration hopes to increase Covid-19 testing in settings such as schools and homeless shelters. Some of the money will also go toward manufacturing testing supplies. The Department of Health and Human Services will also establish regional coordinating centers to facilitate coordination between distributors, testing centers and labs.

Approximately $200 million will go toward increasing sequencing capacity. As coronavirus variants become more of a concern, it is important to track existing variants and detect new ones. This funding will allow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention labs to start sequencing 25,000 samples per week, up from 7,000. As we have reported previously, experts say that U.S. genomic sequencing needs to ramp up quickly in order to get an accurate picture of variants as they emerge and spread.

Covid-19 Vaccines Could Be Available to U.S. General Public as Early as April

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser for President Biden, has said that members of the general public could start to receive the Covid-19 vaccine as early as April (NYT). States have largely been focused on getting limited vaccines to medical workers, nursing home residents and some people with high-risk conditions. Despite a slow initial rollout, vaccine administration has been ramping up, with the seven-day average of shots given reaching 1.5 million per day on Wednesday. Even so, demand for the vaccines remains higher than the supply. Dr. Fauci said that even when vaccines do become more widely available, it will still likely take several months to complete vaccinations. He added that he hoped most people in the U.S. would be vaccinated by mid- to late summer.

Around the World

Europe

EU Commission Approves New Contract for Moderna’s Vaccine

The EU commission has approved a new contract for 300 million additional doses of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine, with a purchase of 150 million in 2021 and an option to purchase an additional 150 million in 2022 on behalf of all EU member states (Politico). The deal also allows the doses to be donated to lower and middle-income countries if the EU had a surplus. “With a portfolio of up to 2.6 billion doses, we will be able to provide vaccines not just to our citizens, but to our neighbors and partners as well,” the EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said. The deal comes amid delays of planned deliveries of all three currently authorized vaccines -- those from Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca -- to the EU, causing dissatisfaction among European governments and residents. Pfizer and German partner BioNTech also said on Wednesday that they have finalized an agreement to supply the EU with another 200 million doses of their Covid-19 vaccine. And on Tuesday the European Medicines Agency said it had received a request from Johnson & Johnson for its coronavirus vaccine to be authorized; the regulator said it could issue an opinion by mid-March. 

Africa

South Africa Starts J&J Vaccine for Healthcare Workers

On Wednesday South Africa started administering Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine to its healthcare workers after a small clinical trial found that the AstraZeneca vaccine didn’t appear to protect recipients from developing mild or moderate illness from the new strain that has become dominant in the country. The J&J vaccine was found to be 57% effective at preventing moderate to severe Covid-19 symptoms in a larger trial, including the B.1.352 variant (WSJ). The J&J vaccine has not been officially authorized by any country yet but South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who received the shot alongside healthcare workers, said: “The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been shown in extensive trials to be safe and efficacious and will protect our healthcare workers from illness and death from Covid-19.”

Middle East

The Gaza Strip Receives First Vaccine Doses

The first doses of the coronavirus vaccine arrived in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday after Israel approved the delivery. Mai al-Kaila, the health minister of the Palestinian Authority, said that 2,000 doses of the Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine had been shipped to the territory. She said the first priority for inoculation would be dialysis patients and people undergoing transplants followed by medical workers (WaPo). The vaccines arrived amid a debate over whether Israel bears responsibility for the health of Palenstinians living in occupied territory, with human rights groups arguing international law requires Israel to provide access to vaccines (NYT). Israel, on the other hand, argues that Palestinians assumed responsibility for health services when they signed the Oslo Accords in the 1990s. The vaccines that were delivered on Wednesday were supplied by the Palenstinian Authority but their transfer required approval by Israel and sparked a debate in Israel’s Parliament. 

Asia

Japan Begins National Vaccination Campaign

Japan began its national vaccination program on Wednesday, starting with its 40,000 medical workers and aiming to have the general population vaccinated by summer. The vaccination drive’s comparatively late start prompted some to wonder if the country would be ready to host the Olympics, which are scheduled to begin in Tokyo in July following a year-long delay due to the pandemic (NYT). The campaign was delayed because Japan required Pfizer to run separate medical trials in Japan to demonstrate the vaccine’s safety and efficacy to the public. Taro Kono, the minister in charge of the rollout, emphasized that it was important to “show the Japanese people that we have done everything possible to prove the efficacy and safety of the vaccine.” Japan is still working to approve the vaccines from AstraZeneca and Moderna. 

Americas 

Police in Rio de Janeiro Investigate Fake Shots

Police in Rio de Janeiro launched an investigation on Wednesday after reports that coronavirus vaccine doses were diverted and images of healthcare workers sticking needles into elderly people without injecting them emerged (Reuters). Police are appealing to local government and health officials to understand what happened to the missing doses. At least three cases of fake inoculations from empty syringes have been reported and videos and photos of healthcare workers inserting an already compressed syringe into people’s arms were circulating on social media. The workers in the photos were dismissed and the elderly people were later vaccinated properly, but police are still investigating the incidents. 

Mexico Says Stop Hoarding Vaccines

On Wednesday Mexico made a plea at the U.N. Security Council for countries to stop hoarding vaccines as poorer countries struggle to vaccinate citizens (Reuters). Three quarters of the first doses of the vaccines have been applied to citizens in only ten countries that make up 60% of the global gross domestic product (GDP), according to Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard. In 100 countries, no vaccines have been administered at all. “We urge countries to avoid hoarding vaccines and accelerate the first stages of COVAX deliveries, to give priority to countries with fewer resources,” Ebrard said before the council, noting that no vaccines have been distributed under the COVAX scheme yet. COVAX aims to ensure equitable access to vaccines for all countries, but has run into logistical challenges. Officials from the Pan American Health Organization said on Wednesday that countries could expect their first COVAX shipments soon, but the first batches were expected to be small.

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Biden Resets His Own Covid Goalposts at CNN Town Hall,” (Politico).

New York Sues Amazon Over Pandemic Safety

On Tuesday New York Attorney General Letita James filed a lawsuit alleging that Amazon failed to follow coronavirus safety protocols (Politico, WSJ, WaPo). James stated, “While Amazon and its CEO made billions during this crisis, hardworking employees were forced to endure unsafe conditions and were retaliated against for rightfully voicing these concerns.” The Wall Street Journal writes, “Ms. James said in the complaint that Amazon failed to comply with state cleaning and disinfection requirements at its facilities. The company also didn’t adequately notify employees of infected co-workers, according to the complaint.” A spokeswoman for Amazon stated that the company cares “deeply about the health and safety of our employees, as demonstrated in our filing last week.” The lawsuit comes amid a fight over a unionization effort among Amazon workers at its warehouse in Bessemer, Alabama, where an election is being held to decide whether workers will be represented by Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union in what would be the first Amazon warehouse to be unionized. The Washington Post reports, “The union seized on James’ suit, claiming the issues workers face in New York are endemic throughout Amazon’s operations,” quoting Stuart Appelbaum, the president of the union, stating, “Amazon needs to do better for all its employees to keep them safe. It’s not that Amazon cannot afford to, but that Amazon doesn’t want to.”
 

Bonus Read: “Metro to Reduce Train Frequencies During Peak Periods as Pandemic Patterns Evolve,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Millions of U.S. Jobs May Be Permanently Lost

The United States may have lost millions of jobs as a result of the pandemic that will not come back, according to a report by the Washington Post on Wednesday (WaPo). The Post writes, “The coronavirus pandemic has triggered permanent shifts in how and where people work. Businesses are planning for a future where more people are working from home, traveling less for business, or replacing workers with robots. All of these modifications mean many workers will not be able to do the same job they did before the pandemic, even after much of the U.S. population gets vaccinated against the deadly virus.” The Post notes that in November, Bill Gates predicted the disappearance of 50 percent business travel and thirty percent of days worked in the office. The Post also writes, “In a report coming out later this week that was previewed to The Washington Post, the McKinsey Global Institute says that 20 percent of business travel won’t come back and about 20 percent of workers could end up working from home indefinitely.” The Pew Research Center found that two thirds of those without jobs have considered changing fields, an increase from the 52% who said they were considering a change during the Great Recession. Susan Lund, head of the McKinsey Global Institute, told the Post, “We think that there is a very real scenario in which a lot of the large employment, low-wage jobs in retail and in food service just go away in the coming years.”

Retail Sales Rise in January Fueled By Stimulus

U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in January, fueled in large part by Covid relief stimulus (WSJ). James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets LLC, told the Wall Street Journal, “Consumer spending is firing on all cylinders.” The Journal also writes, “The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model on Wednesday predicted the economy will grow at a 9.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, up sharply from a 4.5% estimate a week ago.” The Journal notes, however, that “the retail sales increase followed three months of decline during the holiday season” according to data from the Commerce Department. Robert Rosener, senior U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, told the Journal, “It’s hard not to see a message here that the stimulus worked in January to support a turnaround after a decline in early winter.”

Bonus Reads: “Insiders at Covid-19 Vaccine Makers Sold Nearly $500 Million of Stock Last Year,” (WSJ); “Waiting for Big Pharma’s Coronavirus Profits to Impress Wall Street,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Three members of President Biden’s advisory board on Covid-19 during the transition warn of the potential for a dismal Spring if the pandemic isn’t controlled (NYT). 

Aaron Blake writes on the White House’s “non-answers” on school reopening efforts (WaPo).

Asher Stockler and Daniel Moritz-Rabson write on how prisons are skimming of stimulus checks meant for prisoners (Intercept).

David Hajdu writes on the music being made during the pandemic (Nation).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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