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March 29, 2021 - Brief Issue 175

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

AstraZeneca Reports Updated Results, 76% Efficacy Rate (Health & Science)

Misleading Vaccine Stories Slip Through the Cracks Online (Health & Science)

Mild 2020-2021 Flu Season Might Foreshadow a Worse One Next Year (Health & Science)

Pfizer Starts Testing Its Vaccine in Young Children (Health & Science)

Housing Markets Boom Around the World (Around the World)

Argentina Delays Second Doses, Opts for Broader Coverage (Around the World)

Indians Gather for Holi As Virus Surges and Maharashtra Imposes Curfew Amid Record Spike in Cases (Around the World)

Paris Doctors Warn that Hospitals Could be Overwhelmed (Around the World)

Trump’s CDC Chief Points to Lab Origin for Covid, WHO Has Called Theory “Extremely Unlikely;” Fauci Responds (U.S. Government & Politics)

Birx: Most Covid Deaths After the First 100,000 Were Avoidable (U.S. Government & Politics)

Accelerating Retirements Amid the Pandemic May Threaten Economic Growth (U.S. Economy)

What Covid Has Taught Us About Telemedicine (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 30,262,379 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 549,335 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 387,435,679 tests and distributed 180,646,465 vaccine doses, with 143,462,691 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 127,196,508 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,784,377 deaths. At least 72,131,923 people have recovered from the virus.

AstraZeneca Reports Updated Results, 76% Efficacy Rate

On Thursday, Oxford-AstraZeneca released near-final clinical trial data showing that its vaccine has an efficacy rate of 76%, a slight drop from 79%, the figure reported by the company in an interim data report released Monday (Nature, BBC).This came in response to concerns raised publicly by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease and the trial’s independent monitoring board that AstraZeneca had used outdated information to achieve that 79% figure. The new results are based on data from 191 patients, rather than 140; according to AstraZeneca, Monday’s interim report did not include data more recent than mid-February 2021. 

According to scientists, the 3% drop in reported efficacy isn’t particularly significant, but the controversy over AstraZeneca’s results raises questions as to why the company released interim data prematurely and why the dispute happened so publicly. Fergus Walsh, BBC’s medical editor, said the company may have tried to publish results quickly to quell concerns over the shot’s side effects in Europe. AstraZeneca plans to file for emergency authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration soon. 

Misleading Vaccine Stories Slip Through the Cracks Online

Out of the 85,000 Americans who have received at least one coronavirus vaccine dose, less than .0018% have died − possibly from other health conditions or unrelated causes (CDC, NPR). Yet misleading stories linking vaccines to death have been among the most highly viewed content on social media this year. According to media intelligence company NewsWhip, an article about somebody dying after getting vaccinated has been one of the most popular vaccine-related stories on almost half of the days in 2021 so far. Fear-mongering vaccine stories tend to receive an outsize share of likes, clicks, shares, and comments, often because multiple news outlets cover the same isolated case, allowing that story to circulate widely. 

Though social media companies claim they are trying to crack down on false news, it can be difficult to flag misleading vaccine stories because they contain technically true information. According to Bret Schafer, who wrote a report on vaccine disinformation for the Alliance for Securing Democracy, said Russian media groups, including Sputnik News and RT, have taken advantage of this loophole. "The [social media] platforms look at an individual tweet from RT saying 23 people died in a nursing home after taking the Pfizer vaccine, and they can't do anything about it because it is technically true, while being wildly misleading," Schafer said. 

So far, about a third of the U.S adult population has received at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine; about 30% of Americans still say they are at least somewhat skeptical about the shot (NYT, NPR). 

Mild 2020-2021 Flu Season Might Foreshadow a Worse One Next Year 

The 2020-2021 flu season was the mildest it’s been since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started gathering data in 2005, with only 0.7 people hospitalized for every 100,000,  thanks to Covid-19 precautions such as masking, social distancing, and working from home (Politico). While this is good news for public health, there could be unintended side effects − with much less flu data available, experts worry they will have a hard time developing an effective flu vaccine for next year. The World Health Organization gathers twice a year to identify which flu strains are dominant across the globe, and this information is used to inform vaccine distribution. 

Paul Offit, a vaccine expert and Food and Drug Administration vaccine advisory panel member, said despite low levels of flu circulation in the U.S., the FDA believes it has enough information to make recommendations for a flu vaccine. “The belief is that there was enough circulating virus to be able to pick what is likely to be the strains that are associated with next year's flu outbreak,” Offit said. He added that Covid-19-esque precautions could help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases every winter, but he doubts Americans will be happy to put on a mask again after the Covid-19 pandemic is over. Lawrence Gostin, a global health law professor at Georgetown University, said history offers some insight into how people behave after a pandemic; the 1918 flu was followed by the roaring twenties. “People started congregating, mingling, hugging, kissing,” Gostin said. “All the things they missed. They crowded into theaters and stadiums and went back to church. That’s what’s likely to happen this fall and that makes the influenza virus very happy.”

Pfizer Starts Testing Its Vaccine in Young Children

On Thursday, Pfizer and BioNTech announced their plans to begin a study on their coronavirus vaccine’s efficacy in children as young as six months (STAT). The companies will test three different doses in 144 participants from six months to 12 years old; once they’ve identified doses for each age group, they will test them in a larger pool of 4,500 kids. The results should be available by the second half of 2021, meaning children may be eligible for the vaccine by early 2022. Because of the trial’s sample sample size and the relatively low rates of Covid-19 reported in children, Pfizer and BioNTech will likely not be able to show that their vaccine reduces symptomatic infection in kids, but they do plan on showing that vaccinated kids develop antibody levels similar to those in vaccinated adults. 

As most of the major U.S. vaccine suppliers begin testing in children, health experts emphasize the importance of getting kids vaccinated (WSJ). Children and teens make up 22% of the U.S. population, and herd immunity won’t be achieved until 70-85% of the population is inoculated against the coronavirus. 

Amazon Authorized for At-Home Covid-19 Test

Tech giant Amazon received Food and Drug Administration authorization for the Amazon Covid-19 Collection Kit, its take-home nasal swab coronavirus test, on Thursday (STAT). Amazon subsidiary STS Lab Holdco has facilities that can process these test results, using PCR technology, in at least seven states. This move is part of Amazon’s effort to break into healthcare, through Covid-19 research, wearable devices, and the company’s virtual medicine platform, Amazon Care. 

Variant With Dangerous Mutation Pops Up in Arizona

A preprint of an Arizona State University study reports that a new coronavirus variant called B.1.243.1 − originating from B.1.243, which is widely circulating in the U.S. − has been detected in Arizona (medRxiv). This variant has the E484K mutation on its spike protein, which helps the virus evade the immune system and currently existing Covid-19 treatments. The E484K mutation was first identified in the South African coronavirus variant and has also appeared in the Brazilian and U.K. strains (BMJ). This new variant from Arizona has started to cross into New Mexico and Texas. 

Some Covid-19 Longhaulers Report Neurological Effects, Despite Mild Initial Infections

Published last week in The Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, a Northwestern University study of 100 suspected Covid-19 patients found that long-haul neurological effects can persist for months in people who had mild to moderate cases of the disease (NYT). None of the patients in the study were hospitalized for Covid-19, but 85% of them experienced long-lasting neurological symptoms after infection, including dizziness, headaches, tinnitus, emotional issues, muscle pain, and brain fog. These symptoms were often worse than the initial sickness; indeed, patient-led surveys have shown that many people who experience long-term symptoms were never hospitalized while infected. 

Doctors across the U.S., including Kathleen Bell of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, say they’ve dealt with a slew of Covid-19 “longhaulers” battling neurological side effects. According to Bell, these neurological symptoms are likely the result of the body’s inflammatory response affecting the brain, and they resemble those caused by a concussion or brain injury. People with neurological effects from Covid-19 rarely report just one symptom, as “there’s only so much real estate in the brain, and there’s a lot of overlap,” Bell said. 

Bonus Reads: “Why Pandemics Give Birth to Hate: From Bubonic Plague to COVID-19,” (NPR); “How Will People Act After Getting Vaccinated? The Complex Psychology of Safety,” (STAT).

Around the World

Housing Markets Boom Around the World 

Residential real-estate markets around the world are booming thanks to pandemic-related stimulus money, low interest rates, and changes in buyer behavior. Some economists worry about possible bubbles and some governments are considering measures to regulate the market. The Wall Street Journal reports, “In China, regulators have tried tamping down property markets to cool what one senior banking official referred to as a “bubble,” to little avail. Property prices are up 16% over the past year in the city of Shenzhen, for example. In New Zealand, authorities recently tightened mortgage lending standards, with median home prices climbing 23% in February from a year earlier to a record.” The Danish central bank recently warned that the financing options available now due to the pandemic could make people take on more debt to purchase a home even as property prices spiral out of control. 

Americas

Mexico’s Covid-19 Death Toll Jumps 60%

Mexico’s government has acknowledged that the country’s true death toll from the coronavirus pandemic is above 321,000, almost 60% more than the official test-confirmed number of 201,429 (AP). The new data comes from a report published by the government on Saturday that lists “excess deaths,” or the number of deaths above an expected average based on previous years’ data, which gives a clearer picture of the true toll of the pandemic since testing is limited and many people died outside of the country’s overwhelmed hospitals. The report also confirmed how devastating the second wave of the virus that hit Mexico in January was: the number of excess deaths jumped by 75,000 in just a month and a half (Guardian). The higher death toll would exceed the official toll of Brazil, which has the world’s second-highest number of deaths due to the coronavirus after the U.S.

Argentina Delays Second Doses, Opts for Broader Coverage

Argentina is delaying giving people the second dose of the Covid-19 vaccine for three months in order to vaccinate as many people as possible with at least one dose (NYT). The strategy “seeks to vaccinate the largest number of people possible with the first dose to maximize the benefits of vaccination and diminish the impact of hospitalizations and mortality,” the government said in announcing the decision on Friday. Health officials are increasingly concerned about another wave of cases and deaths fueled by variants that have overtaken regional neighbors, particularly Brazil, but also Chile and Paraguay. On Saturday, Argentina cancelled all direct flights with Brazil, Chile, and Mexico; it had already blocked flights from Britain and Ireland. Argentina’s vaccination campaign began in December and has administered 3.5 million doses among its population of 45 million people. 

Asia

Indians Gather for Holi As Virus Surges and Maharashtra Imposes Curfew Amid Record Spike in Cases

On Monday Hindus across India threw colored powder and sprayed water in massive Holi celebrations in spite of restrictions on gatherings put in place to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Holi marks the advent of spring and is normally celebrated by millions of people in outdoor mass gatherings, but this is the second year that Indian authorities have urged people to avoid celebrating. Authorities are worried that the gatherings will exacerbate an already grave situation as Covid-19 cases are hitting record numbers.

On Monday the health ministry reported 68,020 new cases, the sharpest daily increase since October (AP). The surge is led by India’s western state of Maharashtra, which on Sunday imposed a night curfew to try to contain the spread of the virus. Mumbai recorded 6,123 new cases and the country as a whole recorded 62,714 new cases on Sunday. “We are seeing a higher COVID positive rate in high-rise residential buildings than in slums...to stop the spread only essential services will be allowed,” said Kishor Pednekar, the mayor of Mumbai adding that hotels, pubs and shopping malls must observe the night curfew rules (Reuters). Keral, Punjab, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh are also seeing a rise in cases. Many Indians are questioning the government’s highly publicized vaccination exports as domestic vaccination efforts are lagging. India has supplied 61 million vaccine doses to as many as 77 countries but only inoculated around 4% of India’s 1.35 billion population. 

Europe

Paris Doctors Warn that Hospitals Could be Overwhelmed

On Sunday doctors in Paris warned that hospitals there would soon be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases as the third wave of the virus sweeps across the country (NYT). In an op-ed article published in the Journal du Dimanche newspaper, 41 doctors criticized the government’s vaccine rollout, saying that vaccinations were not being administered fast enough, creating a “catastrophic medical situation.” The article warned that hospitals would reach capacity in two weeks. “We have never experienced such a situation, even during the worst attacks in recent years,” the doctors wrote, referring to the attacks by Islamic State terrorists in Paris in 2015 that killed 130 people. “We will be forced to triage patients in order to save as many lives as possible,” the doctors added, saying that the emergency would lead to “non-access of care” for some patients.

U.S. Government & Politics

Trump’s CDC Chief Points to Lab Origin for Covid, WHO Has Called Theory “Extremely Unlikely;” Fauci Responds

On Friday, in an interview with CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta, former CDC chief under President Trump Robert Redfield stated that he believes the coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab (Politico). The World Health Organization has investigated the issue and concluded that such an origin is “extremely unlikely.” Redfield, who is now an adviser to Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan, stated, “That’s my own view. It’s only an opinion. I’m allowed to have opinions now.” He added, “I am of the point of view that I still think the most likely etiology of this pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory. Escaped. Other people don’t believe that. That’s fine. Science will eventually figure it out. It’s not unusual for respiratory pathogens that are being worked on in a laboratory to infect the laboratory worker.” Politico writes, “Most scientists also believe the virus developed naturally and, at some unknown point, jumped from an animal to a human — just as two related viruses, SARS and MERS, have done within the last two decades. But many experts say they cannot completely rule out the possibility that the virus escaped from a lab, although they consider such a scenario unlikely.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert commented on the interview, saying, “I think what he likely was expressing is that there certainly are possibilities … of how a virus adapts itself to an efficient spread among humans,” adding, “One of them is in the lab. And one of them — which is the more likely, which most public health officials agree with — is that it likely was below the radar screen, spreading in the community in China for several weeks, if not a month or more, which allowed it when it got recognized clinically to be pretty well-adapted.” Current CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, who replaced Redfield, speaking at the briefing where Fauci made his comments said, “I don’t have any indication either for or against either of the hypotheses that Dr. Fauci outlined.”

Birx: Most Covid Deaths After the First 100,000 Were Avoidable

Speaking in a CNN documentary “Covid War: The Pandemic Doctors Speak Out” released on Saturday, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response coordinator for the Trump administration, stated that most Covid deaths after the first 100,000 were avoidable (WaPo). Birx stated, “I look at it this way: The first time, we have an excuse. There were about 100,000 deaths that came from that original surge,” continuing, “All of the rest of them, in my mind, could have been mitigated or decreased substantially.” More than 500,000 people have died in the United States so far from Covid.

Biden Doubles First 100 Days Vaccination Goal

On Thursday, President Biden announced that he was doubling his goal for the number of people who would be vaccinated in the first 100 days of his administration (Politico). Biden raised the goal to distributing 200 million doses of vaccine in the first 100 days. During his first press conference, Biden said, “I know it’s ambitious, twice our original goal, but no other country in the world has come close … to what we are doing.” Politico writes, “The U.S. is now administering roughly 2.5 million doses per day, with more than 114 million shots given in the two months since Biden's inauguration. Barring any unexpected hiccups in the vaccine rollout, the country is already on pace to hit 200 million vaccinations in roughly five weeks, around Biden's 100th day in office.”

White House Works on Developing Vaccine Passports

The White House is working to develop vaccine passports that will enable Americans to prove that they have been vaccinated, the Washington Post reports (WaPo). The Post writes, “The effort has gained momentum amid President Biden’s pledge that the nation will start to regain normalcy this summer and with a growing number of companies — from cruise lines to sports teams — saying they will require proof of vaccination before opening their doors again. The administration’s initiative has been driven largely by arms of the Department of Health and Human Services, including an office devoted to health information technology, said five officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the effort.” According to the Post, the passports would be similar to airport board passes and available via smartphone.

U.S. Economy

Accelerating Retirements Amid the Pandemic May Threaten Economic Growth

The pandemic has led to accelerating rates of people retiring, and the growing number of retirements may threaten economic growth, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population working or seeking work—for Americans age 55 and older has fallen from 40.3% in February of 2020 to 38.3% this February—representing a loss of 1.45 million people from the labor force. The participation rate initially fell much more for prime-age workers, those between ages 25 and 54, from 82.9% in February last year to 79.8% in April, but has since jumped 1.3 points, to 81.1% in February of this year. By contrast, participation for older workers has shown no rebound from last spring.” “Historically, the likelihood of seeing workers who decided to retire come back into the labor force is quite low” commented Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. The Journal warns, “The exit of older workers contributed to the reversal of gains in the overall labor force participation rate that occurred during the economic expansion following the 2007-2009 recession. That decline is especially worrisome because it comes as an aging population has already been holding down growth in the U.S. labor force. Economic output depends on the number of workers and how productive each worker is. Thus, the decline in participation, if not reversed, could weigh on growth.”

Household Spending Set to Rise After a Drop in February

In February 2021, consumer spending fell 1% and household income fell 7.1%, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Friday (WSJ). However, the Journal notes that spending was impacted by snow storms across the country and the fall in income reflected a return to normal levels after the distribution of Covid relief stimulus checks. The Journal reports, “Income and spending are set to rise in coming weeks, setting up the economy for what economists forecast will be the strongest growth in years after last year’s pandemic-induced contraction.” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told the Journal, “It’s already starting to happen,” adding, “This is not really a forecast right now—it’s just an extension of what’s already visible.”

Bonus Read: “Did Your Job Description Go Out the Window During the Pandemic?,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Where We Are Now: New York City After a Year in the Grip of Pandemic,” (Politico).

What Covid Has Taught Us About Telemedicine

In a Sunday report, the Wall Street Journal examines what the experience of the pandemic and stay-at-home orders has taught about the promises and pitfalls of telemedicine (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The Covid-19 pandemic created the perfect test lab for telemedicine. The closure of clinics and hospitals during the early days of the lockdown, and the subsequent guidelines to avoid venturing out as much as possible, forced a massive shift to video consults, providing a crash course on how they work—and what can go wrong.” Daniel Z. Sands, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School, told the Journal, “We’ve learned so much about the many different things doctors can do to connect with patients, in ways they never did before, that it will be hard to turn back the clock.” The Journal reports, “By some estimates, 20% to 25% of all care in the future could be delivered remotely. At Stanford Health Care in Palo Alto, Calif., even as practices have resumed in-person appointments, 30% to 40% of all visits are still virtual. About a third of new-patient visits are using telemedicine, and close to 75% of patients who completed a video visit report that they are very likely or extremely likely to choose a video consult over an in-person visit, according to Chief Medical Information Officer Christopher Sharp.”

Analysis & Arguments

Katherine J. Wu writes on the Covid long haulers and their effort to navigate vaccination after having been left out of the trials (Atlantic).

Adam Gopnik writes on the return of mass shootings (New Yorker).

Theresa Vargas writes on the former chief executioner for Virginia turned opponent of capital punishment, who died from Covid before he could see Virginia end the death penalty (WaPo).

Matthew Cunningham-Cook examines the role of the New York’s comptroller in preventing an investigation of Cuomo’s handling of nursing home death data (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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