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October 19, 2020 - Brief Issue 106
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
U.S. Records 8 Million Covid-19 Cases; Rural Areas Particularly Hard Hit (Health & Science)
More than 1,000 Current and Former CDC Officers Condemn White House Response to Pandemic (Health & Science)
Italy and France Report Record Numbers of New Cases; Ireland to Impose More Restrictions; U.K. Might Need Another Lockdown, Says Government Advisor; and Protests in the Czech Republic Turn Violent (Around the World)
Swiss Yodeling Concerts Behind Coronavirus Clusters, Country Tightens Restrictions (Around the World)
China’s Economy Recovers (Around the World)
McConnell Sets Vote for Senate Coronavirus Relief Bill; Democrats Reject Senate Bill; Pelosi Gives White House Tuesday Deadline for Pre-Election Relief Bill, Expresses Optimism (U.S. Government & Politics)
Credit Scores Rise Amid Recession (U.S. Economy)
Rich Cities Retain Their Hold on the Economy Amid the Pandemic (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
Global coronavirus cases rose by more than 400,000 for the first time on Friday, a record one-day increase (Reuters). There have been 8,154,935 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 219,674 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,234,138 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 124,793,756 tests. Worldwide, there have been 39,967,736 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,113,352 deaths. At least 27,495, 096 people have recovered from the virus.
U.S. Records 8 Million Covid-19 Cases; Rural Areas Particularly Hard Hit
The United States’ cumulative Covid-19 case count reached 8 million on Friday, with little sign of slowing (Johns Hopkins, Politico). Daily case counts now average more than 55,000, with a nearly three-month high of 70,000 cases on Friday. At least ten states – Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming – set single-day case records Friday or Saturday (NYT). While Western and Midwestern states continue to drive the surge, CNN Health reports that only two states – Missouri and Vermont – are trending downward. Twenty-nine states saw increases of 10% or greater in their average number of cases over the past week, with the remainder reporting steady numbers.
Rural areas in particular are now reporting high numbers (NYT). The largely rural states of North and South Dakota are spiking, adding more daily cases per capita than any other state since the start of the pandemic. Even in states with large urban areas, rural areas are faring worse, reporting high numbers and strained hospitals.
More than 1,000 Current and Former CDC Officers Condemn White House Response to Pandemic
In an open letter published in the October issue of The Epidemiology Monitor, more than 1,000 current and former officers of the Epidemic Intelligence Service division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) criticized the White House’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis and called for stronger leadership (WSJ).
“We hereby express our concern about the ominous politicization and silencing of the nation’s health protection agency during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic,” the letter began. “The absence of national leadership on Covid-19 is unprecedented and dangerous.” The letter went on to express dismay over the disjointed mitigation efforts put forth by individual states and territories and the lack of collaboration with the CDC. It concluded with a call for Americans to demand that the CDC be allowed to “resume its indispensable role.”
Pfizer to Seek Vaccine Authorization Late November at the Earliest
Pfizer, the leading candidate to receive approval for its vaccine, has announced that it will request emergency approval for their coronavirus vaccine in the third week of November at the earliest (NYT, NPR, Politico). No other company is on track to request vaccine approval before that date, removing any remaining expectations of a pre-election vaccine. Although Pfizer could have conclusive data as to the vaccine’s effectiveness against the virus by the end of October, it won’t yet have sufficient safety data. According to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines, trial participants must be monitored for any potential side effects for a median period of at least two months, a benchmark which Pfizer expects to reach in the third week of November. In anticipation of emergency approval, the company has already begun mass production of the vaccine and aims to have 100 million doses available by the end of the year (NY Post).
As Covid-19 Cases Rise, Pandemic Fatigue Undermines Public Health Efforts
As colder months approach, public health officials are observing a new threat to public safety: apathy (NYT). The World Health Organization (WHO) has an official term for this – “pandemic fatigue” – and a scientific study estimates that about half the population in Europe is experiencing it. It’s not much of a stretch to say that the United States is facing the same exhaustion.
“In the spring, it was fear and a sense of ‘We are all in it together,’” said Vaile Wright, a psychologist at the American Psychological Association. “Things are different now. Fear has really been replaced with fatigue.” After months of uncertainty and social isolation, people are eager to return to pre-pandemic life, even as cases surge. Bars and restaurants are filling up quickly, and indoor parties and gatherings are becoming commonplace again.
But public health officials warn that we can’t let our guards down quite yet. Alex Azar, secretary of Health and Human Services, tried to bolster the public with an optimistic message in a press conference on Sunday (NBC, NYT). “Hang in there with us,” Azar said. “We’re so close. We’re weeks away from monoclonal antibodies for you, for safe and effective vaccines. We need a bridge to that day.” He asked Americans to “please, give us a bit more time of your individual, responsible behavior.”
Many experts say that the idea of returning to normal within a few weeks is unrealistic (NYT). Monoclonal antibodies are difficult and time-consuming to produce. A vaccine, even if it becomes available by the end of the year, will take months to fully distribute, and it will be longer before we know which vaccines are most effective. Top experts caution that preventative measures such as distancing, wearing a mask, and hand washing will continue to be important well into 2021.
Around the World
Europe
Italy and France Report Record Numbers of New Cases; Ireland to Impose More Restrictions; U.K. Might Need Another Lockdown, Says Government Advisor; and Protests in the Czech Republic Turn Violent
European countries are attempting to curb the number of new cases as the second wave builds momentum across the continent. But with people tired of restrictions and officials hesitant to enter any sort of lockdown reminiscent of those put in place in the spring, most governments are finding it difficult to strike the right balance.
On Sunday, Italy reported 11,705 new infections in a single day, it’s the largest number of new infections to date and followed 10,925 cases reported on Saturday (Guardian). The Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced additional measures during a televised national address Sunday evening, saying they were needed “to avoid a new lockdown” (BBC). Now, mayors will be given authority to close public areas after 9p.m. and the opening times of restaurants will be limited. The size of groups allowed to dine together will also be limited. And on Saturday, France also set a new high, with 32,427 new cases.
On Monday, Ireland will impose “decisive” nationwide Covid-19 restrictions after the country broke its record for the number of cases recorded in a single day for the fourth time in a single week (Reuters). The country now has 232 cases per 100,000 people, the 12th highest among the 31 countries monitored by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. “The government will act tomorrow, the action will be decisive and it will be nationwide action,” Harris, who was the health minister during one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns from the end of March to mid-May, told national broadcaster RTE. Currently, most of the country is on Level 3, meaning shops and restaurants are open but indoor dining is banned. Some counties along the border with Northern Ireland are on Level 5, which allows only essential retail to remain open. If the country were to move to Level 5 -- the highest -- people would be asked to stay home with only exercise allowed within a 5 km radius, and restaurants could only provide takeaway and delivery service.
In the U.K., Jeremy Farrar, a government scientific advisor, warned that Britain would need to impose another three-week lockdown immediately to stop the surge in Covid-19 cases (Reuters). “The current tiered restrictions will not bring the transmission rates down sufficiently or prevent the continued spread of the virus,” he said on Sunday. Farrar is a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies but other government officials disagreed with his assessment. Senior minister Michael Gove, for example, said a national lockdown was not being considered.
In the Czech Republic, protests in Prague’s historic tourist district against the strict anti-coronavirus measures turned violent and police fired tear gas and water cannons to break up the demonstrations on Sunday. An estimated crowd of 2,000 people gathered, hurling missiles and setting off fireworks at police officers in protest of the increasing limitations on public life. This past week, bars and restaurants have been limited to only offering takeout and schools have shifted to remote learning. Currently, cases in the Czech Republic are the highest in Europe when adjusted for population -- on Saturday, there were 8,713 new cases (Guardian). On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Karel Havlicek said the government would wait two weeks before deciding whether or not to implement a full lockdown (Reuters).
Swiss Yodeling Concerts Behind Coronavirus Clusters, Country Tightens Restrictions
Nine days after a yodeling concert that attracted 600 people in the German-speaking canton of Schwyz, Switzerland, one of the yodelers tested positive for coronavirus. Now the area has one of the highest infection rates in the country, with the local government reporting 633 active cases on Friday, three weeks after the concerts (NYT). The local hospital is running out of beds and over the last two weeks, Schwyz recorded 474 cases per 100,000 people. Petra Steimen-Rickenbacher, a government councilor, blamed the concerts for the spike in cases and also mentioned private parties as a contributing factor. Switzerland as a whole has seen a rise in cases in recent days, with a new daily high of 3,105 cases reported on Friday. On Sunday, the Swiss government announced tighter restrictions, including a national mandate to wear masks and a ban on large scale public gatherings (Reuters). Starting Monday, no more than 15 people can gather in indoor public places and masks will be required on public transport, shops, schools, churches, and cinemas. “The sharp increase in the number of cases in recent days is worrying,” the government said in a statement.
Middle East and Asia
China’s Economy Recovers
The Chinese economy grew by 4.9% between July and September, according to government data, showing China as the first major economy to recover from the pandemic (WSJ, Guardian). While the figure was still short of expectations, it is an improvement from the first quarter when the economy contracted by 6.8%. The International Monetary Fund is projecting China’s economy will expand by 1.9% this year, making it the only G20 country to grow this year, even as the country faces job losses, uneven growth across the country, and trade frictions with the U.S. and other partners.
Lockdowns in Israel and Australia Ease, But Only Slightly
Meanwhile, in Australia and Israel, two of the world’s strictest lockdowns have been eased slightly (WSJ). Starting Monday in Melbourne, Australia, residents can travel up to 15 miles from home and the time limit for outdoor exercise (currently two hours) will be eliminated. Retail stores, restaurants, cafes, and hair salons are expected to reopen by Nov. 1. In Israel, residents will be allowed to travel more than one kilometer from their home and gatherings of up to 10 people inside will be permitted. Preschools and daycare centers will reopen and restaurants can serve takeout.
Africa
In Africa, Major Hotel Chains Undaunted by Pandemic
In Africa, the pandemic has led to the collapse of many independent hotels, which in turn has led to consolidation in the industry, allowing larger international chains to take over the properties (WSJ). Marriott International, Radisson Hotel Group, and Accor all plan to stay on track with growing their footprints in sub-Saharan Africa. According to Andrew McLachlan, managing director of development for sub-Saharan Africa at Hilton, “the company’s interest is being sustained partly because the continent’s hospitality sector remains underdeveloped in terms of expected future demand compared with other parts of the world.” That doesn’t mean the industry isn’t suffering in the current climate; Africa is expected to lose 10.9 million, or 45%, of its tourism income this year.
U.S. Government & Politics
McConnell Sets Vote for Senate Coronavirus Relief Bill; Democrats Reject Senate Bill; Pelosi Gives White House Tuesday Deadline for Pre-Election Relief Bill, Expresses Optimism
On Saturday Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stated that the Senate will hold two votes on the Senate GOP plan for a half trillion dollar coronavirus relief bill this week (Politico, CNN). The first vote is scheduled for Tuesday and would provide additional funds for the Paycheck Protection Program while the second vote, which is scheduled for Wednesday, will address the other parts of the proposed relief plan. Democrats have already signaled that they will reject the Senate GOP proposal as insufficient, and House Democrats have been negotiating separately with the White House over larger proposals.
On Sunday, speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced that the White House had until Tuesday to strike a deal with the House Democratic leadership to ensure a relief bill before November’s election (WSJ, WaPo, CNN). Pelosi emphasized that the deadline “only relates to if we want to get it done before the election, which we do.” The White House has signaled its willing to do a $1.8 trillion relief bill while Democrats have pushed for a larger $2.2 trillion bill. Despite issuing the deadline, Pelosi expressed optimism commenting, “I’m optimistic because, again, we’ve been back and forth on all of this” (Reuters). Bonus Read: “Trump and Pelosi Haven’t Spoken in a Year as Grave Crises Grip the Nation,” (WaPo).
Twitter Removes White House Coronavirus Task Force Member’s Tweet
On Sunday, Twitter confirmed that it removed a tweet by White House Coronavirus Task Force Member Dr. Scott Atlas for violating the company’s policy on misleading information regarding the coronavirus (CNN). Atlas’ tweet, stated, among other things, “Masks work? NO.” As CNN writes, “The message pushed by the controversial neuroradiologist goes against guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which recommends people wear masks in public settings and when around people who don't live in their household, especially when other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain. Earlier guidance from US officials didn't recommend widespread masking, but in April, the CDC recommended face coverings for the general public given that people without symptoms could unknowingly transmit the virus.”
Bonus Reads: “As Coronavirus Cases Rise, Red-State Governors Resist Measures to Slow the Spread, Preach ‘Personal Responsibility,’” (WaPo); “How Anti-Mask Politics Are Scrambling Indiana’s Governor’s Race,” (Politico).
U.S. Economy
Credit Scores Rise Amid Recession
Americans’ credit scores are rising even as the pandemic has driven the U.S. economy into recession, according to a Sunday report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “While the coronavirus was pummeling the U.S. economy, Americans’ credit scores—a metric used in nearly every consumer-lending decision—were rising. The average FICO credit score stood at 711 in July, up from 708 in April and 706 a year earlier, according to Fair Isaac Corp., the score’s creator. Early estimates suggest the average score has held steady through mid-October at the July level, which is the highest since FICO began keeping track in 2005.” Government relief and stimulus funds have underwritten the increase to a large extent, allowing people to pay off their debt. The increases amid the recession have forced lenders to adjust their models for offering and evaluating loans.
WSJ: Pandemic Likely to Dampen Holiday Shopping
The pandemic is likely to dampen holiday shopping, according to a Sunday report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal notes, “The coronavirus pandemic is creating novel hurdles for Americans’ spending this holiday season, posing potential challenges for an economy that leans heavily on their willingness to consume. Households face the prospect of Halloween without trick or treaters, Thanksgiving without family travels, Black Friday without crowds, and a December without parties and in-person gift-giving. Congressional deadlock over fresh fiscal aid for the millions unemployed and a contentious presidential election campaign are also potential dampers on this year’s cheer.” According to the National Retail Federation, the holiday season accounts for about 20% of retail sales annually. The Journal also notes that in addition to the changes in holiday practices this season, the recession has stretched budgets and many people are using the relief funds they have received for savings.
U.S. Society
Rich Cities Retain Their Hold on the Economy Amid the Pandemic
Even as the coronavirus pandemic has changed economic conditions, shut down social life in many cities, and driven a turn to remote work, wealthy cities, including New York and San Francisco, have continued to retain their importance in the national economy, according to a report Thursday in the Washington Post (WaPo). The Post notes that early on in the pandemic, many were reevaluating the value of living in dense and often expensive cities. There were also signs of people relocating -- at least temporarily. The Post writes, “In New York, for instance, more than 400,000 of the city’s wealthiest residents fled in the spring, leaving neighborhood home vacancies as high as 40 percent. Vacation-home sales in resort towns, which already have higher rates of remote workers than the rest of the country, have skyrocketed. In Park City, Utah, the number of homes under contract jumped 70 percent this summer compared with the same period last year, according to Reach Advisors, a market research and analytics firm that focuses on real estate and economic development.” Yet the Post also notes that “even as once-bustling business districts have devolved into abandoned office plots, the vigor of office culture and the pull of job opportunities and better pay probably will keep high-caliber workers and companies coming to superstar cities once the pandemic subsides. Economists and business leaders think these cities will hold on to their elevated status even after the initial upheaval of the coronavirus.” In D.C., for example, the real estate market is currently undergoing a boom, as we covered in a brief last week. James Chung, president of Reach Advisors, told the Post that home sales have surged in many cities, noting, “We are not seeing a massive rush to the suburbs from central corridors.”
Bonus Read: “Why the Coronavirus is Killing More Men than Women,” (WaPo).
Analysis & Arguments
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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.
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