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Fed Minutes Reveal Broad Support for Holding Rates Steady Last Month

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady last month was broadly supported despite two officials who dissented in favor of a cut, according to minutes of the policy meeting released Wednesday. Data in focus Thursday includes initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and flash PMI. And President Trump called on Fed governor Lisa Cook to resign after one of his officials accused her of mortgage fraud. The accusations mark an escalation of the Trump administration's attack on the Fed. 

 

Top News

Fed Minutes Reveal Broad Support for Holding Rates Last Month

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting said “almost all” officials supported the decision, implying that apart from the two dissenting officials, it was backed by the remaining 16 officials who participated.

The decision followed a period of intense political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the White House to lower interest rates. Officials maintained their benchmark policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% as they weighed how importers, retailers and consumers will split the costs of higher duties on imports.

Trump Turns Up the Heat. Fed Chair Powell Tries to Keep His Cool.

Minutes before his congressional testimony this summer, Jerome Powell sat alone, staring straight ahead in the wood-paneled chamber, appearing deep in thought. 

The Federal Reserve chair later told an associate he felt locked in, prepared for questions about the central bank’s chief roles—keeping inflation low and Americans employed. Powell looked steeled for criticism, and he didn’t have to wait long.

Trump Considers Firing Fed Official After Mortgage Fraud Accusation

President Trump told aides he is considering firing Lisa Cook, a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor, after one of his housing officials accused her of mortgage fraud, according to a senior White House official and another person familiar with the matter.

  • Who Is Lisa Cook, the Fed Governor Trump Says ‘Must Resign’?
  • What Is Mortgage Occupancy Fraud, the Claim Wielded by the Trump Administration?
 

Indonesia’s Central Bank Delivers Back-To-Back Rate Cut

Bank Indonesia continued its rate-cutting cycle as steady inflation provides room to loosen policy further to support growth. Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on Wednesday.

China Leaves Benchmark Lending Rates Unchanged

China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged in August despite weakening credit demand and slowing economic growth.
The one-year loan prime rate was unchanged at 3.0% while the five-year rate was steady at 3.5%, according to the People's Bank of China on Wednesday. The benchmark loan rates have been kept at these levels since May, when the central bank lowered the rates to stimulate more borrowing. Last month, new yuan loans in China contracted for the first time in 20 years amid weakening demand for credit. Economists believe Beijing will lower the benchmark rates again within the year as it is now pivoting to boost domestic demand. (Dow Jones Newswires)

 

Stalling New Zealand Economy a Test Case for Trade Chaos

By James Glynn

 

New Zealand’s central bank declared this week that the economy stalled in the second quarter, laying a large part of the blame for the growth crunch on the uncertainty that followed announcement of the White House’s trade policies in April, with ripple effects flowing to all corners of the island chain.

The sudden loss of momentum prompted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to contemplate cutting official interest rates by 50 basis points at a policy meeting that concluded on Wednesday. Read more.

 

U.S. Economy

U.S. Will Preserve 27.5% Auto Tariffs on European Union

The U.S. will keep the current 27.5% tariffs on automobiles from the European Union until the 27-nation bloc introduces legislation to reduce levies on a variety of U.S. goods, according to a joint statement released on Thursday.

More U.S. Companies Plan to Slow Hiring in Second Half of 2025

One in five U.S. employers surveyed by the Conference Board plans to slow hiring in the second half of 2025, nearly double the rate of companies that anticipated bringing on fewer people at this time last year.

 

Forward Guidance

Thursday (all times ET)

7:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: Existing Home Sales

Friday

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming

 

Research

Fed's Powell Could Focus on Labor Market at Jackson Hole

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium is likely to focus on the labor market and its implications for monetary policy, says Natixis IM's Mabrouk Chetouane in a note. This year's symposium is titled "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The highlight of the meeting will be Powell's statement on the U.S. monetary policy roadmap for the remainder of the year, the director of global market strategy says. Powell could have to justify why attention has shifted toward the employment target and relegated inflation to the background, despite a resumption of inflationary pressures, Chetouane says. — Emese Bartha

 

Basis Points

  • The trade war with the U.S. is squeezing small Canadian businesses on every front, data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business finds. It shows nearly two-third of small businesses face higher expenses, and almost half are also seeing lower revenue. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • European business activity continues to prove resilient into the second half of the year, surveys showed, despite the American trade tariffs that have weighed on some companies.
  • Exports of Swiss watches edged up in July as brands continued to front-load shipments, driven by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs in the key U.S. market, while demand for high-end goods continues to cool.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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