Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 10, March/2021, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

With greetings from the AiR team, please allow me to wish you a pleasant read and a great day ahead!

Special greetings go to all readers celebrating Mauritius’ Independence Day and Lithuania’s Independence Restoration Day this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Concerns over further crackdown on political dissent as Chinese legislature is set to approve electoral reform for Hong Kong

(dql) Kicked off last week, China's two sessions’ – the annual plenary sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) to make national-level political decisions – is discussing a reform of Hong Kong’s electoral system. The NPC is expected the pass the new law this week.

While details of the reform remain thus far unclear, it is widely believed that it will include two major changes: One is to add 300 members to the Election Committee that selects the Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, raising the current number of 1200 to 1500. These 300 are expected to be recruited from city’s delegates to the CPPCC and members of prominent mainland Chinese business, social and academic groups, bolstering the Beijing-loyal bloc in the Committee and severely decreasing the opposition’s ability to influence the selection of the city’s leader. The CPPCC traditionally consists of delegates from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its allied front organizations, eight legally-permitted political parties subservient to the CCP, as well as nominally independent members. The other core change is to grant the Committee the power to nominate candidates for the election to the Legislative Council (LegCo), the city’s parliament.  [South China Morning Post]

While CCP officials welcome the reform as necessary move to secure the “political baseline of ‘patriots governing Hong Kong’” and “to plug loopholes to ensure that those who govern the city meet relevant basic standards, including fully safeguarding sovereignty, national interest and never jeopardizing the socialist system led by the Communist Party of China (CPC),” critics view it as the latest crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil liberties and political dissent, following Beijing’s imposition of the Hong Kong security law last year. [Deutsche Welle] [AP]

Japan: Domestic violence reports in Japan hit record under pandemic

(dql) According to data of Japan’s National Police Agency, reports regarding domestic violence hit a record-high number in 2020, with more than 82.600 consultations and reports nationwide, a rise of 436 compared to 2019, and 76% of the victims being women.

Experts believe that the rise in domestic violence, mainly between spouses, is linked to longer periods at home due to the coronavirus pandemic. [NHK]

South Korea: Massive land speculation scandal triggers political consequences

(nm) As housing prices continue to climb nationwide, a large-scale land speculation scandal involving public officials sparked public outcry and political consequences.

Allegations surfaced that employees of the state housing cooperation Korea Land and Housing Corp. (LH) had used pre-announcement information to buy about 10 billion won (§8.88 million) worth of land in Gwangmyeong and Siheung, both close to Seoul, before a massive state housing development project was announced there in February. In response, the government launched an interagency team to investigate the allegations, involving the Prime Minister’s office, the land ministry, and local governments. This week, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun additionally ordered the creation of a police-led investigative team as President Moon Jae-in urged for systemic cooperation between administrative and investigative forces. He also called on the prosecution to earn public trust, following public doubt about the results of the first investigation.

Reform of the state prosecution, which was criticized for holding wide-ranging powers while being seen as too close to business interests, was one of Moon’s top priorities when assuming power in 2017. Under his administration, the police were vested with more investigative powers and the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) was established, responsible for high-level civil servant corruption cases. However, according to Moon, more steps are still needed to separate prosecution and investigative rights. [Korea Times 1] [Yonhap] [Korea Herald 1] [Korea Herald 2]

In response to reducing the prosecution’s investigative authority, Prosecutor-General Yoon Seok-youl also resigned last week, stating he “can no longer see the collapse of justice and common sense which our society has built up for a long time.” His resignation had been anticipated since the Moon administration started pushing for the establishment of the Serious Crimes Investigative Agency under the Ministry of Justice, which would strip the prosecution off its authority to investigate certain types of crimes. President Moon accepted his resignation an hour after it was offered. It is widely perceived as a move to open the way for Yoon to run in next year’s election, as Yoon stressed he would continue to serve the people. [Korea Times 2] [Nikkei Asia] [Korea Times 3]

In a separate development, prosecutors last week raided the headquarters of the SK Group, one of South Korea’s largest conglomerates, investigating possible involvement in the alleged creation of an illicit fund by Choi Shin-won, chairman of the SK Networks Co, a trading unit belonging to the group. Prosecutors also indicted Choi who had been arrested last month on charges of embezzlement and breach of trust, for creating the slush fund worth US$198 million and for his alleged involvement in stock manipulation. [Korea Times 4]

Taiwan: KMT submits signatures backing referendum against government’s pork policy

(dql) Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has submitted more than 1 million signatures supporting its two referendum proposals to the Central Election Commission (CEC) for review.

The referendums are aimed at striking down the government’s decision to lift a ban on pork imports containing ractopamine, a leanness-enhancing additive ractopamine, and at allowing to hold referendums to be held in conjunction with major local elections. The second referendum seeks to reverse an amendment to the Referendum Act passed by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party-controlled parliament in June 2019 that limits the frequency with which referendums can be held. Critics view the amendment a way for the ruling DPP to prevent referendum questions from threatening its support at the ballot box. [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Suspension of prison term of former PM Khaleda likely to be extended

(lm) Bangladesh’s Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs recommended on March 8 to extend the freeze on the jail sentences of Khaleda Zia, the chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) who served two periods as prime minister. [The Siasat Daily]

An arch-rival of Prime Minister Hasina’s, Zia had served 25 months out of 17 years of prison sentences in two corruption cases when the government granted her conditional release for six months in March last year to seek medical treatment in hospital under the supervision of the prison authorities. [AiR No. 13, March/2020, 5].

The suspension was extended last September by another six months on condition that the former prime minister cannot go abroad. The same month, the Supreme Court’s (SC) Appellate Division upheld the suspension of trial proceedings in four more cases against Zia. The cases, carrying charges of vandalism, arson and defamation, were filed in 2015. [AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].

Bangladesh: Anniversary of Sheikh Mujib Rahman’s historic March 7 speech observed

(lm) Bangladesh has observed the 50th anniversary of the historic speech given by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding president of Bangladesh and father of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, on March 7, 1971. Delivered during a period of escalating tensions between East Pakistan and the powerful political and military establishment of West Pakistan, the speech effectively declared the independence of Bangladesh. [bdnews24.com]

At that time, Pakistani military rulers refused to transfer power to Rahman’s Awami League, the largest East Pakistani political party which had gained majority in the National Assembly of Pakistan in 1970. The Bangladesh Liberation War began 18 days later when the Pakistan Army launched a military operation aimed at eliminating the Awami League apparatus, alongside Bengali civilians, intelligentsia, students, politicians, and armed personnel.

Bangladesh: Cartoonist arrested under contentious internet law granted bail after protests

(lm) Bangladesh’s High Court granted bail on March 3 to a jailed cartoonist who has been held for ten months in pre-trial detention for drawing cartoons mocking a powerful businessman close to the government. According to his lawyer, he has developed major health problems and has been tortured in custody. [Al Jazeera] [Voice of America]

The same day, several hundred people rallied in Dhaka in the sixth days of widespread protests over the death in custody of a prominent writer earlier this month [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. The protesters gave Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government an ultimatum to abolish the contentious Digital Security Act (DSA) by March 26 – Bangladesh’s Independence Day – or face intensified protests. [The Straits Times]

Both accused were among 11 individuals arrested in May 2020 under the DSA for allegedly creating confusion over the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The men were repeatedly denied bail and remained in pre-trial detention for nearly nine months before they were officially charged in late January this year for posting “propaganda, false or offensive information, and information that could destroy communal harmony and create unrest”.

Against this backdrop, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, urged Bangladesh on March 1 to ensure a transparent probe into to the death in custody of the writer. Bachelet also called on Dhaka to “conduct a review of the Digital Security Act […]; suspend its application; and release all those detained under it for exercising their rights to freedom of expression and opinion.” [UN News]

Separately, Bangladesh’s Supreme Court (SC) on March 7 heard a bail petition concerning a 61-old man who was arrested under the DSA in March last year. The High Court granted him bail seven months later for one year on medical grounds, but the government filed a petition, challenging the court’s ruling. By the time of the SC’s decision, the accused had been in jail for a year without being charged, although the DSA gives authorities a maximum of 105 days to complete a probe and file charges. While the SC upheld the High Court’s ruling from last year, the Chief Justice remarked that the SC would not consider granting bail to people accused of “tarnishing the country’s image”, but on medical grounds. [The Daily Star]

India: Thousands of women join farmers’ protests against contentious agricultural laws

(lm) International Women’s Day (March 8) has been marked by sit-ins and hunger strikes led by female farmers against the country’s contentious agricultural laws. Local media reported that at least 40,000 women joined protests by farmers on the outskirts of New Delhi where tens of thousands of farmers have camped since last November to protest against the laws [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. [Al Jazeera 1] [Voice of America]

Before, Indian farmers began gathering on March 6 for a five-hour roadblock outside New Delhi to mark the 100th day of protests against the three contentious agricultural laws, and to add pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. [Al Jazeera 2] [The Straits Times]

Protests began on a small scale last June in Punjab – one of India’s two breadbasket states - when the government first rolled out its new agricultural policies, and have grown exponentially since they were passed as laws in September [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. While the demonstrations have been mostly peaceful, a rally in New Delhi on January 26 turned violent, leaving one protesters dead and more than 80 police officers injured [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1].

Prime Minister Modi has called the laws much-needed reforms for the country's vast and antiquated agriculture sector and has painted the protests as politically motivated [see AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3]. Moreover, police have filed criminal charges against several activists under India’s sedition law, which gives authorities broad powers to make arrests ahead of filing formal charges if an act or speech by an individual ‘excites or attempts to excite disaffection towards the government’ [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1].

India: Non-profit organization challenges new rules for social media, digital media platforms

(lm) The Foundation for Independent Journalism, a non-profit organization which publishes The Wire news portal, has filed a petition with the New Delhi High Court, challenging India’s new guidelines that seek to regulate content on social networks and other web services in the country. [The Straits Times] [The Wire]

The petition challenges the so-called “Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code”, which were announced by India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY) on February 25. To making media portals, over-the-top (OTT) content providers and social media intermediaries more accountable to legal requests, the guidelines grant sweeping powers to the government, including the right to demand the removal of content. The rules have come under criticism from news portals, journalists’ bodies and internet freedom advocates. [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1].

India: Calls mount for ‘honor killings’ law after father beheads teenaged daughter

(lm) Calls for a new law against so-called honor killings have spurred after police in northern arrested a man who decapitated his daughter in anger over her relationship with a man he did not approve of. [Al Jazeera] [The Indian Express]

According to campaigners, thousands of women and girls are killed across South Asia and the Middle East each year due to the perpetrators' belief that the victim has brought shame or dishonor upon the family. India reported 24 of these killings in 2019, though activists considered that a significant undercount. According to a survey by the All India Democratic Women's Association (AIDWA), over 30 percent of honor killings in the country take place in Western Uttar Pradesh. [CNN]

India: Thousands demand India’s top judge to quit over rape remarks

(lm) Calls have been growing for the current Chief Justice of India, Sharad Arvind Bobde, to resign “without a moment’s delay” after he asked a young man accused of raping a girl whether he would marry her to avoid jail. [The Straits Times]

The remarks shocked many and prompted an open letter signed by some of India's best-known feminists and non-governmental organizations calling for the chief justice’s resignation. The letter also called attention to another rape case that Bodge was hearing on the same day and where he reportedly questioned whether sex between a lawfully wedded man and wife could ever be considered rape. [Bar and Bench] [Al Jazeera]

What is more, the girl's family also alleged that they had agreed not to go to the police because they were promised by the accused's mother that once the girl became an adult, they would marry the two. In a country where victims are often blamed for rape, and sexual assault carries lifelong stigma [see e.g. AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], her family agreed to the arrangement. But after the accused backtracked from his promise and married someone else, the survivor went to the police. [BBC]

Nepal: Supreme Court annules unification of ruling NCP

(lm) In a surprise ruling, the Supreme Court (SC) on March 7 scrapped the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and revived the two predecessor parties that had joined hands in 2018 to form the NCP. The decision came just hours before the country’s lower house of Parliament was scheduled to reconvene [see article below]. [The Hindu]

In its ruling, the SC found that the name “Nepal Communist Party” was already allotted to the Communist Party of Nepal, which was formed five years prior to the post-election merger of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN(M) in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)]. Thus, the allocation of the name upon the merger, and by extension the merger itself, were declared void ab initio.

There is a good case to believe that the judicial intervention will strengthen Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who was dealt a political blow earlier this month when the SC had ordered the reinstatement of the country’s Parliament [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. While pressure was mounting on the prime minister to resign on moral grounds, Oli had already made clear that he would face a no-confidence motion in Parliament. Importantly, to get through the floor test successfully, he must garner the support of a minimum of 138 members of the 275-member House of Representatives.

Against the backdrop of the recent SC ruling, Prime Minister Oli, as the leader of the CPN-UML, controls 121 lawmakers, while is rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who is leading the CPN(M), controls 53 members of parliament’s lower house. With 63 lawmakers, the Nepali Congress (NC) — the second-largest party in the House — has emerged as a virtual kingmaker. Both CPN-UML and CPN(M), could form the government on the majoritarian principle with the support of the NC. Dahal already offered the premiership to Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who declined insisting he would support neither faction until the ruling NCP officially splits.

Nepal: Parliament resumes session

(lm) After being reinstated by the country’s Supreme Court (SC) [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1], Nepal’s Parliament reconvened on March for a session that will likely determine the future of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and the government. [The Himalayan Times]

Lawmakers close to Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal - rivals of Prime Minister Oli’s - staged a walkout to protest the tabling of an ordinance on the Constitutional Council Act. First introduced in December last year, the ordinance enables the Constitutional Council (CC), a key agency that appoints officials at various constitutional bodies, to achieve quorum if as few as three of its six members, including the prime minister, attend a meeting [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4].

Nepal: Hit by COVID-19 curbs, country’s economy contracts for first time in decades

(lm) Due to a months-long lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus, Nepal’s economy shrank by 1.99 percent in the last fiscal year ending July 15 – marking the first contraction in four decades. What is more, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to tear through the fabric of Nepal’s domestic economy, the government is considering increasing the issuance of debt in both domestic and external markets to revive its economy. As a result of the changes in the volume and composition of public debt, the share of government revenues devoted to debt service is expected to increase from 24.4 percent in 2019 to 28.5 per cent in 2022. [Eurodad] [The Straits Times]

Only five years have passed since the massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Nepal that left almost 9,000 people dead, 800,000 homes destroyed and cost an estimated $10 billion. At the time, Nepal’s foreign debt stood at $3.8 billion. Since then, notably the country’s transition to Federalism and the coronavirus pandemic have caused the country’s debt to nearly triple - now amounting to more than $8.5 billion.

At the same time, fiscal revenues are projected to decline even further, with the Finance Ministry now targeting $7.9 billion compared to the initially targeted $8.6 billion. In the last fiscal year, the government had only collected little over 75 percent ($7.2. billion) of its targeted revenue ($9.4 billion). [The Kathmandu Post]

Pakistan: Prime Minister Khan wins vote of confidence amid opposition protest, boycott

(lm) Prime Minister Imran Khan survived a vote of confidence in the lower house of Parliament on March 6 after his ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party failed to secure a majority in the Senate elections held three days earlier. The session was marked by an opposition boycott of the vote and clashes between government supporters and opposition leaders outside the Parliament building. [Dawn] [South China Morning Post] [The Straits Times 1]

The prime minister volunteered to seek the National Assembly’s confidence after former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani defeated on March 3 incumbent Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh in a crucial contest for the senate seat representing Islamabad. After the vote, opposition parties — mainly former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N) and former president Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) — now enjoy the support of 53 members of the 100-member Senate. [Deutsche Welle] [The Times of India]

Shaikh, who is a key member in-charge of the government's economic policies and reforms plan under the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s $6 billion loan program [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4], had to win a Parliament seat to continue as the finance minister after June 11. [The Straits Times 2]

Not having a majority in Senate, the prime minister will find it almost impossible to pass legislation in Parliament, and will have to rely on President Arif Alvi, a party loyalist, to pass presidential ordinances to keep the government functioning. Yet, major constitutional changes will remain beyond Prime Minister Khan’s reach, even though legal reforms are sought by global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) [see article below]. [Arab News] [Nikkei Asia]

This year's elections were being conducted amidst an anti-government drive by an 11-party coalition of opposition parties, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). The PDM leaders had earlier threatened to resign en masse from the provincial and national assemblies, and refused to take part in the Senate elections, but later backtracked after the PPP decided to contest the polls [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3].

In the lead up to the elections much of the debate surrounded the secrecy of ballot that is observed in the Senate elections, which has always led to allegations of vote buying. The government moved a conditional presidential ordinance and later invoked advisory jurisdiction of the Supreme Court (SC) to conduct the elections via open ballot [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]. The SC ruled on March 1 that the elections should be held via secret ballot, but their secrecy is not absolute and that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) should employ the latest technology to ensure "that the election is conducted honestly, justly, fairly and in accordance with law and that corrupt practices are guarded against." Citing lack of time, the ECP the following day stated that this year's elections would be conducted as per past practice. [Dawn] [The Hindu]

Pakistan: Legislation needed to meet three outstanding FATF benchmarks

(lm) Pakistan will have to make further legislation on at least two counts to complete its action plan with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) before June 2021, members of the country’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on Anti-Money Laundering noticed on March 2. [Dawn]

Presiding over the meeting, Minister of Finance and Revenue Abdul Hafeez Shaikh also said Islamabad is expected to submit an updated report within 30 days to the FATF on the progress on the legislation and other steps to be taken to address the outstanding concerns.

Two weeks ago, the FATF - an inter-governmental organization that monitors global money laundering and terrorist financing – gave Pakistan time until June to implement the remaining three action items assigned to it to be removed from the watchdog’s list of Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring - often externally referred to as the ‘grey list’[see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. All these deficiencies are related to terror financing, according to the FATF. [FATF]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: CNHR to dismiss UN criticism of recent sentences against opposition figures

(nd) Following the UN rights officials’ criticism of lengthy prison sentences for opposition figures in mass trials rendered in absentia, the Cambodian Human Rights Committee (CHRC) has rebuffed the statement by UN rights experts. The CHRC denied that the court procedures and ruling were groundless, stating democratic space in Cambodia was always open for those who exercised their rights and freedom in accordance with the Constitution and the law, adding that law enforcement against perpetrators was not restriction of rights.

The CHRC referenced Sam Rainsy’s November 9, 2019 plan to return to Cambodia and overthrow the government, calling it a coup, and pointing to sufficient evidence against Rainsy and other overseas politicians. Also, the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of Cambodia in Geneva published a statement dismissing the UN rights experts’ criticism. [Phnompenh Post]

Cambodia: Hun Sen to remain in office until he wants to stop

(nd) At a press conference after receiving the Covid-19 vaccination, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen announced to remain in office as long as he wants, backing away from promises late last year to be the leader for the next 10 years. Hun Sen is the world’s longest serving leader, with 36 years in office. Recently, rumors had it that his eldest son Hun Manith, a four-star general in the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, would be his successor.

The largest opposition party, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved in 2018, resulting in a landslide win for Hun Sen’s party and a de-facto one party state. In an ongoing mass trial against opposition members, which was highly criticized by rights groups and foreign embassies, former CNRP leader Sam Rainsy was sentenced in absentia to 25 years in prison. [See also AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1] [UCA News]

Cambodia: Reducing independence on US dollar

(nd) Cambodia aims to reduce its dependency on US dollar, following an increase in demand in the Cambodian riel. As a substitute, the country introduced digital currencies and phased out small-denomination US dollar bills, aiming at a better economic control and fighting money laundering and the black economy. Cambodia has a dual currency system, which has been running since UN peace keeping operations brought US dollars with them in 1993. [Voice of America]

Indonesia: Review of cyber laws

(nd) President Joko Widodo ordered a review of the electronic information and transaction (ITE) law due to ambiguous and prone to abuse wording. Critics said it was an attempt to attack freedom of expression. The numbers of cases under the ITE law almost doubled from last year, with observers blaming it for contributing to Indonesia's deteriorating democracy. A survey by pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia from last year found that around 70% of respondents were worried about expressing their opinions publicly. The elastic clauses of the ITE law have frequently been used by people in power and against journalists or activists. The national police chief in February already introduced guidelines for ITE cases, which tell officer to prioritize persuasion and mediation, and to use legal indictments only as "the last resort". [Nikkei Asia]

Indonesia: Two Islamic militants killed

(nd) Indonesian security forces killed two, suspected to be members of the East Indonesia Mujahideen (EIM) militant group, killing one police officer. The village Poso in a mountainous district is considered an extremist hotbed in Central Sulawesi province. Following the bombings on tourist island Bali in 2002, killing 202, the world’s biggest Muslim-majority country initiated a crackdown on Islamic militants. EIM’s leader, Abu Wardah Santoso, was killed by security forces in 2016, with his son among the two killed this week. [The Star]

Laos: From land-locked to land-linked?

(py) Laos, a landlocked country, has seen more connectivity in recent years, especially with China, promising a greater connectivity. The Boten-Vientiane railway, part of China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI), is expected to be completed within December 2021. If Laos is able to experience economic growth through it, it could help China guard off criticism over the alleged debt trap coming with participation in its BRI projects. Though this route is the least economically important in Southeast Asia, Laos is the most politically stable country, especially in comparison with Thailand and Myanmar. Additionally, the Chinese-Laos Vangvieng-Vientiane highway was completed last December. In September 2020, a new law on real estate property was enacted, allowing for the first time foreigners the right to own a unit or a suite inside a condominium.

Still, analysts worry that the new legislation could attract buyers from mainland, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea. The rapidly growing demand in the residential sectors has been connected to growing foreign investment in the country, with China being the number one foreign direct investor in Laos.

Laos has also been active in incorporating technology to boost customs efficiency. The government has installed the Automated System for Customs Data at 24 of its border posts, saving cost and time for the cross-border movement of products in general.  Many experts believe Laos’ recent developments could pave the way for the country to become the next hotspot for investments, mimicking the development in Cambodia. [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2] [The Laotian Times] [East Asia Forum]

Malaysia: Cabinet to postpone parliamentary sitting

(nd) The cabinet advised the King last Wednesday that parliament sittings would be postponed until August 1, citing the danger of infection for elderly lawmakers. Last week, the palace said the house could sit during the state emergency. On January 12, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin suspended parliament after the King declared the state of emergency, which was criticized by the opposition as a move to cling to power. Muhyiddin had lost the support of two lawmakers earlier, eradicating his razor-thin majority. Therefore, analysts said the reconvened parliament was likely to see a no-confidence vote against Muhyiddin, who was likely to prevent and postpone a reconvention. Last week, two lawmakers surprisingly announced their support for Muhyiddin. [Benar News]

Malaysia: UMNO to leave coalition for next election

(nd) The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) announced to leave the ruling coalition in the next election, forcing struggling Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to look for new partners and possibly delaying polls. UMNO is the biggest party in the ruling coalition and said to remain in the alliance until parliament is dissolved. The announcement did not come as a surprise, although not everyone at UMNO is in support of it, possibly following the two MPs defecting to Bersatu recently. A possible scenario according to analysts now is wooing MPs to switch sides, especially from the coalition’s third largest partner, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS).

Muhyiddin was criticized for his push to the King to declare a state of emergency and suspending parliament, seen as an effort to cling to power. [Benar News]

Malaysian court to allow judicial review by rights groups

(nd) Following last week’s deportation of Myanmar nationals in military ships [See also AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1], a Malaysian court granted international human rights groups the permission to challenge the move. The judgment is major, given the country’s law banning immigration decisions to be questioned in court. The legal bid was brought by rights groups Amnesty International and Asylum Access, who claimed that among the deported were asylum seekers and children. The latest court decision also puts on hold the deportation of another 114 Myanmar nationals until the end of the judicial review. The decision is unlikely to bring back the detained but enables rights groups to challenge similar cases in the future. The deportation was criticized internationally and potentially amounts to contempt of court. Malaysia hosts more than 154,000 asylum-seekers from Myanmar, which is in turmoil following a coupon February 1. [Reuters]

Myanmar: General strike to continue as death toll rises

(nd) As two more charges were added to detained President Win Myint last Wednesday, protesters gathered again.[Channel News Asia 1] Police reportedly beat up medics to hinder them from treating protesters. Following many officers joining the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), 19 police officers fled to India in an effort to disobey to junta’s orders. [South China Morning Post 1] Myanmar‘s Cardinal Charles Bo compared the situation to the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing in 1989.

In Yangon alone, 400 protesters were detained, including journalists, six of whom were charged for spreading “fake news” about the coup. Just last month, maximum sentences were raised to three years in jail. Meanwhile, the special meeting of ASEAN Foreign Ministers failed to reach a consensus. A common statement denounced the violence, while individual statements by Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore urged Myanmar’s military rulers to free Aung Sun Suu Kyi and other political leaders who remain detained. [Reuters 1] [Channel News Asia 2]

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said ASEAN members must adhere to the founding principle of non-interference, but still have a duty to respect its values for democracy, human rights, good governance, rule of law and constitutional government. Malaysia urged the military leaders to return to negotiations. [Radio Free Asia 1] Meanwhile, there was confusion over who represents Myanmar at the UN. Following Myanmar Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun’s emotional appeal at the UN General Assembly last week, the junta announced he was fired. US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said they have not received any official evidence or request that he be removed, leaving him the representative of the Myanmar government. [Voice of America 1] In a verbal note, the Myanmar Foreign ministry informed the UN of the removal of Kyaw Moe Tun. In the latest twist, the UN appointee by the military resigned, saying that his successor remains the representative of Myanmar to the UN. [Channel News Asia 3] Meanwhile, more than 10 Myanmar diplomats based at foreign missions have announced to stop working for the military, in the US, Switzerland and Germany. [Irrawaddy 1]

The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) named four ministers to temporarily lead the official duties, three of whom belong to National League for Democracy (NLD). The committee consists of 17 politicians, against whom the military has issued arrest warrants. The committee has not yet asked for international recognition, but German President of the Bundestag Wolfgang Schäuble has expressed his support for the committee. [FAZ in German]

The UN has again denounced the violence and warned, it could threaten regional stability and turn into a “real war”. According to UN envoy to Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener who talked to the generals, they said they were used to sanctions and […] survived the sanctions time in the past”, and also dismissed warnings of becoming isolated. [South China Morning Post 2]

Singapore’s foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishnan toughened his language and condemnation of the coup, connecting a strong ASEAN response with the credibility and ability to shape politics of the bloc in general. According to analysts, this move is to avoid to create a vacuum for China to fill. Singapore is still criticized for its close economic ties with the military, being the top direct foreign investor in Myanmar. [South China Morning Post 3] The US has imposed another round of sanctions, blocking the ministries of defense and home affairs and top military conglomerates from certain types of trade. The two conglomerates, Myanmar Economic Company (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL), are involved in almost every industry, making them a logical target, that is likely to affect the country’s economy collaterally. [Reuters 2] On Tuesday, Swedish fashion brand H&M announced to suspend all orders in Myanmar. [South China Morning Post 3]

Youtube has announced to remove five military-run television platforms hosted on its webpage. Also, TikTok announced to remove content on its platform, depicting Myanmar soldiers delivering death threats to protesters. [Reuters 3] Myanmar citizens reported an increase in arbitrary violence against residents and drivers by security forces, giving rise to fears of a certain culture of lawlessness cultivating. [Radio Free Asia 2]

On Monday, two more protesters died due to shots in the head, while an alliance of nine trade unions called for a general strike. Civil servants have been striking for weeks following the creation of the CDM. A NLD official has died in police custody, reportedly he was tortured to death. Human Rights Watch called for an investigation in the death and an end of impunity. [Nikkei Asia] Overnight raids and arrests continued, with reported violence and destruction of homes. [Voice of America 2]

48 Myanmar nationals, including 8 policemen, fled to India’s Northeast. In a letter, the Myanmar government asks India “in order to uphold friendly relations between the two neighbour countries” to return the policemen. India has not answered the request yet but recently worked to build closer ties to Myanmar to counter China. [South China Morning Post 4]

The body of the teenager shot in the head last week was exhumed in an effort to prove the military did not kill the girl. Parallelly, the regime on a social media campaign started a disinformation campaign putting the blame for the killed protesters on a third party not associated with the military. [Frontier Myanmar] Additionally, the military council stripped five independent media companies of their licenses, including Myanmar Now, Khit Thit media, Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), Mizzima, and 7 Day. Before the announcement, the offices of Myanmar Now were raided and office equipment taken away. At least 34 journalists have been detained since the coup. [Voice of America 3]

Despite the NLD’s failure to unite the ethnically divided country, different ethnicities and religions seem to be united in their rejection of the coup. Also, protesters’ demands grow to be more inclusive to social issues like sexual self-determination. Rohingya refugees voiced their support of the protests, resulting in some netizens and protesters publicly regretting their lack of support for the Rohingyas in 2017. [South China Morning Post 5] [Benar News]

The military has started to occupy universities, schools and hospitals as base camps, as well as locations close to residential areas to coordinate mostly nightly crackdowns on civilians, searching apartments door to door. [Irrawaddy 2] So far, an estimated 1,700 people have been arrested, more than 60 killed.

Philippines: Nine killed in anti-insurgency operation

(nd) Following the killing of 9 activists and arrest of 6 in four provinces close to Manila over the weekend, the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) on Monday said the government failed to counter widespread killings in the country. Two days before the raids, President Rodrigo Duterte said in a press conference on ending the communist insurgency: “I’ve told the military and the police that if they find themselves in an armed encounter with the communist rebels, kill them, make sure you really kill them, and finish them off if they are alive.”

The CHR said the amount of people killed was alarming, referring to the wide-spread impunity among security forces and the pattern of red-tagging. CHR set up an investigative team but also called on the government to probe the incidents. According to rights group Karapatan, at least 318 individuals have been killed in the course of the government’s counterinsurgency. With respect to the government’s war on drugs, the cited number of victims was at least 6,039, with a five times higher estimate according to human rights groups. [Rappler] [Benar News]

Thailand: Death penalty for Pattani bombers

(nd) Six men were given the death penalty by the Supreme Court for a string of bombings and attempted bombings in central Pattani in 2016. Four others were given life imprisonment and 36 in jail respectively. The explosion killed one person and injured 20. The men were also charged with illegal assembly to commit a crime and colluding to amass firearms for the purpose of acts of terrorism. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Popstar and activist burns King’s portrait

(nd) Thai popstar and pro-democracy activist Chaiamorn “Ammy” Kaewwiboonpan was arrested for allegedly burning a portrait of King Maha Vajiralongkorn during a protest rally demanding the release of four protest leaders. Ammy admitted to the allegations. If charged under the lese majeste laws, he could face imprisonment of up to 15 years. If charged for arson of government property, the maximum penalty is death. Ammy’s move happened during a pro-democracy demonstration on Sunday by the group “Restart Democracy,” or REDEM, who later clashed with the police. [See also AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1] Thailand was downgraded in U.S.-based Freedom House’s “Freedom in the World 2021” report for its fierce crackdown on protesters. [Benar News]

Thailand: Facebook to remove Army-linked accounts and pages

(nd) Following Facebook’s removal of 185 accounts and groups linked to the Royal Thai Army, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha announced an investigation by the Army into the matter. According to the social media platform, the removed pages violated its policy against government interference, by engaging in information-influencing operation on behalf of a government entity. They originated in Thailand and targeted domestic audiences in the South, where the army faces an insurgency movement. The issue of army information operations has preoccupied activists, who filed a suit against the Army, as well as parliamentarians. Lawmakers from oppositioning Move Forward Party accused the army of misusing funds to discredit critics of the government. [Channel News Asia]

Thailand: More activists charges as protests continue

(nd) On Monday, 18 more activists were indicted by the prosecutor for participating in anti-government rallies last year. The youth-led pro-democracy movement has tabled once tabooed subjects such as a monarchy reform, prompting charges under the country’s strict lese majeste laws. Three were charged with sedition and lese majeste, the other 15 protesters with sedition and breaching a ban on public assembly. [Reuters] [Bangkok Post] On Saturday already, hundreds of protesters defied a gathering ban to protest the bail-less detention of the co-leaders of the movement. Police used rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters, injuring 10 protesters and 26 policemen. [South China Morning Post]

Vietnam: 13th Party Central Committee convenes second plenum

(lm) The 13th Central Committee (CC), the highest decision-making body within Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party (CPV), concluded its second plenary conference on March 9. During the two-day sitting, the CC’s 200 members discussed the working agenda of the entire tenure, as well as the nomination of candidates for high-ranking positions in State organs. [VietnamPlus]

Elected by the all-important National Congress, the current CC comprises of 180 full or voting members and 20 alternate or non-voting members. Of the 180 full members, 120 were incumbents who had already served a full term or more on the CC. The first plenum was held on February 1, the last day of the thirteenth National Congress, to elect the Political Bureau (or Politburo) and the CPV’s leader, the General Secretary. Previously, the thirteenth Congress had adopted a special resolution permitting incumbent General Secretary of the CPV and President of Vietnam, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, an unprecedented third term in office while retaining party rules limiting future officials to two terms [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1].

According to experts, there are at least to possible clouds on the horizon.

In a surprising development, the new CC elected only eighteen members to the Political Bureau, one below the target of nineteen from a field of over twenty candidates. Vietnamese insiders call an even number of Politburo members unstable because it could delay decision-making when votes are tied, which in some cases could undermine the authority of Trọng.

The second cloud concerns the future health of General-Secretary Trọng who will turn 77 in April. While he was re-elected for an unprecedented third term, there are questions about whether he still has the clout to serve as kingmaker after his recent ill-health: Trọng suffered a stroke last April and reportedly has not fully recovered, potentially undermining his ability to impose his political will.

Importantly, Trong’s close confidant Tran Quoc Vuong [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1] was not given special consideration for his age and was removed from both the Political Bureau and the CC. Hitherto Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc, who was seen as the front-leader on Vietnam’s COVID-19 response [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3], if confirmed, will move from an executive position to the ceremonial role of the state president.

Meanwhile, the only female leader in one of the top four leadership posts – secretary general, state president, prime minister, and chair of the National Assembly – Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, who served as chairperson of the National Assembly, was replaced by Vuong Dinh Hue.

For a comprehensive analysis of Vietnam’s current leadership, please consider articles published by the [Australian Institute of International Affairs] and the [East Asia Forum].

Vietnam: Appeals hearing for Dong Tam Land-rights activists scheduled

(lm) A high people’s court opened on March 8 an appeal trial for six defendants jailed last year following a deadly land-rights clash at the Dong Tam commune outside Hanoi. [Radio Free Asia] [VietnamPlus]

Le Dinh Kinh, the retired local official, was shot dead by police who had entered the village in January last year, intervening in a long-running dispute over a military construction site. At the first-instance trial, a court in September last year sentenced both of his sons to death, ruling that they had helped mastermind resistance against the police [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. The other 27 people on trial were given sentences ranging from life imprisonment to 15 months of probation.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Biden’s National Interim Guidance to “out-compete” China in long-term competition

(dql) Laying out the contours for his administration’s national security strategy required by June, US President’s Biden last week release his “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.” With regards to China, he stressed the competitive nature of US-Sino relations while not entirely excluding space for diplomacy and cooperation.

Calling China the “only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system,” Biden identifies a number of polices and strategies to “out-compete a more assertive and authoritarian China in the long-term”. He calls on the US to restore credibility and reassert “forward-looking global leadership,” while “bolstering and defending our unparalleled network of allies and partners, and making smart defense investments.” Addressing Asian nations, he vowed to “support China’s neighbors and commercial partners in defending their rights to make independent political choices free of coercion or undue foreign influence.” In a boost for Taiwan amid high cross-strait tensions, he described the island as “a leading democracy and a critical economic and security partner,” which the US will support “in line with longstanding American commitments.” Furthermore, he reassured that the US will “stand up for democracy, human rights, and human dignity, including in Hong Kong,

Xinjiang, and Tibet.”

At the same time, Biden pledged “conduct practical, results-oriented diplomacy with Beijing and work to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation,” while welcoming Beijing’s cooperation on shared challenges, including climate change, global health security, arms control, and nonproliferation. [White House, USA]

China military spending rises amid US plans build missiles along first island chain against China

(dql/zh) China’s Ministry of Finance announced that the country’s defense spending will reach 208 billion USD in 2021, a rise of 6.8% from the previous year. Prior to the announcement, the Defense Ministry revealed that one-third of the budget would be used on construction projects for military exercises, while the rest would be spent on weapons, equipment and salaries. [South China Morning Post]

China’s figure compares to 740 billion USD, the US Department of Defense has proposed for fiscal 2021, and to 51.6 billion USD in Japan amd 49.6 billion ISD in India. [National Interest]

Meanwhile, a report of US Indo-Pacific Command delivered to Congress on Monday calls for roughly 27 billion USD in additional spending between 2022 and 2027, in a bid to strengthen US deterrence against China in the region. [Defense News]

This includes a 4.6 billion budget in 2022 for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative a core part of which would be the establishment of a network of precision-strike missiles along the first island chain, which consists of islands including Taiwan, Okinawa, and the Philippines. [Nikkei Asia][Taiwan News 1][Taiwan News 2]

China urges Russia to join hands fighting color revolutions

(zh) China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China and Russia should jointly fight against “color revolutions” and disinformation and safeguard the sovereignty and political security. Wang said the two countries could “set a model” in supporting each other and “building strategic mutual trust”.

Wang’s remark came after the US imposed sanctions on Russia for poisoning the opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Beijing has tried to deepen its influence in Central Asia and Southeast Asia, where the two countries have common development and strategic interests.

China has publicly opposed color revolutions and criticized Western forces for instigating social movements. Beijing has accused Western countries, especially the US, of supporting the Hong Kong protest opposing the extradition bill in 2019. [Global Times][South China Morning Post]

Cross-Strait relations: Taiwan ridicules China’s Beijing-Taipei railway connection plans and condemns pineapple ban

(zh) China has announced plans to construct a high-speed railway and expressway linking Beijing and Taipei by 2035 in the annual session of the National People’s Congress. The envisioned connection is part of a “National Comprehensive Transportation Network Plan," released by the China’s State Council, the country’s central government. It lays out construction goals for transportation links from 2021 to 2035 covering 700,000 kilometers.

Taiwanese politician and netizens called the plan “daydreaming” and called on Taiwanese citizens to regard it as a “science fiction novel,” while urging Beijing not to be a “frog at the bottom of a well”. [Nikkei Asia][Taiwan News] [Republic World]

Earlier this month, China announced to ban the import of Taiwan’s pineapples from March 1 on, citing bugs found in batches of imported pineapples and denying claims that the ban was politically motivated. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen decried the unilateral action, calling it an “

to IUU fishing activities, detecting some Chinese coast guard ships and fishing vessels near Natuna waters last year. A number of such incidents have attracted international attention to Chinese violation in Indonesian sovereign waters. Besides Chinese vessels, in August 2020 two Vietnamese vessels were found fishing illegally in Northern Natuna. [Antara News]

Malaysia, Saudia Arabia sign MoU ambush

China is the biggest consumer of Taiwan’s pineapples with 91% of Taiwan’s total exports of fruit valuing at 1.5 billion NTD. Observers believe that Beijing’s suspension aims to hit the high public approval ratings Tsai currently enjoys due to her world-class effective pandemic response. [Focus Taiwan][Reuters][SupChina][Taiwan News]

Since Taiwan’s pro-independence President Tsai Ing-wen has assumed office in 2016, Beijing has cut off diplomatic channels and has been ramping up its pressure on the island, including regularly sending fighter jets and bombers near Taiwan or into its air defense identification zone. In January, China staged military exercises near Taiwan on almost daily basis. [Daily Mail] 

Taiwan-Guam relations: New Marketing Committee set up

(zh) The Guam Visitors Bureau (GVB) has decided to remove Taiwan from the Greater China Marketing Committee to set up a new separate Taiwan Marketing Committee to improve the Taiwan market. The GVB has thus far overseen Guam’s business with China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

The Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Guam described the move as a sign of respect towards Taiwan. The number of Taiwanese tourists ranked third after Japanese and South Koreans. [Taipei Times] [Taiwan News]

Australia bans Chinese state media and set to debate genocide designation for China’s treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang

(dql/zh) Australian public broadcaster Special Broadcasting Service (SBS) has suspended broadcasts from Chinese state media channels CGTN and CCTV as it is reviewing human rights complaints submitted by the human rights organization Safeguard Defenders alerting SBS of “serious human rights concerns” over dozens of forced confessions shown in the news channels’ programs. [The Guradian 1]

CGNT has recently come under scrutiny by several national media watchdog agencies in Europe. In February, British media watchdog Ofcom revoked the CGTN license in the UK, arguing CGTN is “ultimately controlled by the Chinese Communist Party” [AiR No.6, February/2021, 2].

Following Ofcom’s decision, CGNT’s approached the French Conseil superieur de l'audiovisuel (CSA), to apply for a broadcasting license. The CAS approved the application allowing the news channel to broadcast under French jurisdiction, adding, however, that it “will be particularly attentive to ensuring that CGTN ensures compliance with these legal requirements. Following CSA’s decision, Vodafone Germany resumed distribution of CGTN news. After Ofcom’s decision German media authorities had notified television networks, such as Vodafone, that the CGTN channel no longer had permission to broadcast. [South China Morning Post] [Deutsche Welle]

The decision of SBS further worsens already highly strained Sino-Australian relations over Canberra’s criticism of Beijing’s Covid-19 information policy, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and tightened grip on Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, Australia’s Senate is set to debate whether to recognize China’s treatment of the Uighur Muslim minority as genocide, following a proposal submitted by a Senator last week. While the Morrison administration has thus far refrained from calling the situation a genocide, Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne expressed concerns about “some very horrific reports, particularly around forced labour, around re-education camps, allegations in in relation to the systematic torture and abuse of women”. [The Guardian 2]

In response, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called claims of a genocide against the Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang absurd and a “lie” and added: “Speaking of genocide, many people would have in their minds the native Americans of the 16th century, African slaves of the 19th century, the Jewish people of the 20th century, and the Aboriginal Australians who are still struggling even today.” [BBC]   

In earlier moves the outgoing Trump administration in January declared the Chinese government was committing genocide in Xinjiang, followed by the Canadian and the Dutch parliaments which passed similar motions. [AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4] [AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4] [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]

In a latest development, Washington, DC-based think tank Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy released a report which it claims to be the “first independent expert application of the 1948 Genocide Convention to the ongoing treatment of the Uyghurs in China,” involving over 50 global experts in human rights, war crimes and international law. It concludes that Beijing "bears state responsibility for an ongoing genocide against the Uyghur in breach of the (UN) Genocide Convention." [Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy] [CNN]

China-EU relations: Chinese Foreign Minister vows to live up investment deal commitments

(zh) Amid uncertainty whether the China-EU investment deal agreed on in December will be ratified by the European Parliament due to concerns over labor rights and forced labor in China, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi reassured “that China is committed to fulfilling every commitment in the deal, including efforts to sign related items of international labor conventions.”

He also stressed China’s support for the EU to pursue more strategic autonomy. “The question of China hoping to divide US-European relations does not exist,” Wang said, “China is willing to see the EU strengthen its strategic autonomy, uphold multilateralism and devote to major power coordination and cooperation.” [South China Morning Post]

Wang’s remarks come as Beijing has been working hard to deepen its relations with Europe amid high tensions with the US. Last year, China surpassed the US as Europe’s largest trading partner. [AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3] But China-EU tensions have also simmered over China’s human rights records in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and amid Brussel’s accusation of Beijing dividing Europe as well as growing dissatisfaction among Central and Eastern European countries over their cooperation with China. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post 2] [Sydney Morning Herald]

For a critical account on the EU’s China policy, see Stuart Lau in [Politico] who points to the problem that while “China has a plan,” and tells the EU “where it's going to go,” the China policy of the EU “remains unsophisticated and inadequate,” with Brussels only “reacting passively to Beijing’s assertive economic, diplomatic and military provocations.”

China-Japan relations: Tokyo considering sending in troops to deal with Chinese coast guard in disputed waters

(dql) Following recent increased activities of Chinese coast guard vessels in the contested waters near the Japanese-controlled Diaoyu Islands, known in Japan as the Senkakus, Japan is considering to send its armed forces there, with Japanese official stressing that domestic law allows the self-defence forces to weapons as law enforcement against unlawful activities on behalf of Japan’s coastguard in case China’s coastguard enters Japan’s territorial waters without permission. [South China Morning Post]

The statement comes after China recently enacted a law permitting China’s coast guard to use weapons against foreign ships that Beijing sees as illegally entering its waters. After the law came into force on February 1, the frequency of Chinese coastguard vessels entering the waters has risen from twice a month last year to twice a week in February, raising Japan’s security concerns. [AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4]

China installing a missile base near border with Vietnam?

(dq) Following satellite images, China is believed to build a surface-to-air missile base 20 kilometers from its border with Vietnam, as a long-term precaution and near-term warning to neighboring countries. [VoA]

Lithuania to set enterprise office in Taiwan

(zh) Lithuania has announced it would open an “enterprise office” in Taiwan this year, aiming to “strengthening and diversifying of economic diplomacy in the Asian region.” Few countries set up formal embassies in Taiwan, but several, including the European Union and some of its members, have representation and trade offices operating as de-facto embassies.

The move signals Lithuania’s discontent toward Beijing as the country’s engagement in the “17+1” summit and in China’s Belt and Road Initiative have not yielded the expected tangible results, with Chinese investment in 2020 standing at only some 10.5 million USD. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis remarked in this regard: “I am not saying that we are leaving and it’s the end, but we should really consider what is the useful way of building a relationship with China.”

Last month, Lithuania was one of six countries refused to send government leaders attend the 17+1 summit and only sent lower-level ministers instead. Earlier it had also banned a Chinese tech company on national security grounds. [Reuters][South China Morning Post 1][AiR No.8, February/2021, 4].

In response to the announcement, Beijing has called on Vilnius to “refuse to be taken advantage of by Taiwan separatist forces, and avoid doing anything detrimental to bilateral political mutual trust”. [South China Morning Post 2]

North Korea: US shortlists NK as nation-state threat as images reveal signs of resumed nuclear activity 

(nm) According to reports by the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and recent commercial satellite imagery, North Korea might have taken up renewed nuclear operations after an assumed two-year break.

Director of the IAEA, Rafael Mariano Grossi, last week stated that “some nuclear facilities in the DMPRK continued to operate while others remained shut down” and, referring to the Yongbyon Nuclear Center, that there were “recent indications of operation of the steam plant” that serves the Radiochemical Laboratory. Grossi added there were no signs of enriched uranium production at Yongbyon, but that there are ongoing indications of activity at another facility in Kangson. The statement is supported by commercial satellite imagery which indicates that the plant is back in operation, based on smoke emanating from a laboratory. However, the steam could also simply indicate preparations for handling radioactive waste as monitoring the facility is difficult. [38 North]

The US head of intelligence for the US Indo-Pacific command, Michael Studeman, reacted to Grossi’s reports, voicing concern that North Korea might use the renewed nuclear activity as leverage for sanction relief as the Biden administration is undergoing a complete North Korea policy review. [Korea Times 1]

Earlier last week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had included North Korea in a list of states posing “nation-state threats” to the US and its allies, next to Russia and Iran. North Korea has recently kept a relatively low international profile, which some attribute to the global pandemic, and has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile testing since 2017. Since Pyongyang expelled IAEA inspectors in 2009, international monitoring has been conducted using open-source information and satellite imagery. However, US officials assert that “North Korea continues to develop its ballistics missile capability and can stark a provocation cycle at any moment.” [Korea Times 2] [Korea Herald]

Last week, the 2021 Index of Economic Freedom by the Washington-based Heritage Foundation also ranked North Korea as the world’s least free country in terms of economic freedom for its people and businesses, after Venezuela. South Korea ranked 24th. [Korea Times 3]

US, South Korea agree on defence cost-sharing, overcoming friction 

(nm) South Korea and the United States have agreed on a defence cost-sharing deal for the upkeep of about 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea, ending a stretch of friction over the issue caused by former US President Trump demanding a hefty increase in Seoul’s contributions and criticizing free-riding. The deal is yet to be approved by the South Korean legislature.

The new “Special Measures Agreement” was reached in a three-day in-person meeting in Washington and will replace the previous arrangement that expired at the end of 2019. Although exact terms have not been disclosed, the US State Department claimed that the proposed agreement contained “a meaningful increase” in payments by South Korea. The two allies were unable to reach a deal in spite of multiple rounds of negotiations since September 2019, mainly due differences over the share that South Korea was to contribute. According to a US State Department spokesperson, the deal reflected the Biden administration’s “commitment to reinvigorating and modernizing our democratic alliances around the world to advance our shared security and prosperity.” [Korea Herald 1]

Some observers believe the deal will require Korea to meet certain US expectations, such as an increased Korean role in the region and participation in the US-led anti-China competition. At the end of the Korean War, the United States and South Korea signed a treaty of mutual defence, providing the basis for the stationing of US troops. Since 1990, South Korea has been paying for the presence of the troops. [Korea Times] [Nikkei Asia]

On Monday, the two allies also launched a springtime combined military exercise, its scaled-backed character owing to the Covid-19 situation. Both sides have stressed that the exercise is regular and defensive in character. As stated by a military official, it seeks “to maintain our joint readiness posture and to support diplomatic efforts fort the denuclearization of and peace on the Korean Peninsula.” [Yonhap 1]

Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will visit South Korea in March, after a three-day trip to Japan. According to sources, the US might seek to hold a “two plus two” meeting, including the US and South Korea’s respective ministers, which would be the first such gathering since October 2018. A possible agenda could include advancing stalled denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea, progress in the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON), as well as cooperation on global issues such as cyberthreats. Washington is also likely to seek to strengthen trilateral cooperation with Japan as part of a new focus on strengthening alliances. [Yonhap 2] [Korea Herald 2]

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin likely to visit India next week

(lm) United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is likely to visit India next week, marking the first visit by a top official of the new US President’s Joe Biden’s administration to New Delhi. During his visit, Austin will likely be meeting with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh, as the two allies seek to deepen military ties to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. The US defense chief will join US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a working trip to Japan and South Korea, but it was not immediately clear if Blinken will also visit New Delhi. [The Straits Times]

Rumors about Austin’s trip to New Delhi come at a time when a virtual meeting of the four leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States is impending. “This will become a feature of Indo-Pacific engagement,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told reporters on March 5, without giving details on the timing of the talks, expected to be held virtually. [Bloomberg]

Last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met virtually with his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan. The meeting was the grouping’s first under the new Biden-Harris Administration, although Washington had discussed its future role in bilateral calls with members since then [see e.g. AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4]. [AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]

India arrests more than 150 Rohingya refugees, ramps up security at Myanmar border

(lm) About 170 Rohingya refugees living in the city of Jammu in Kashmir have been rounded up into a holding center. Sources saiy the mass detentions are part of a wider nationwide crackdown for the deportation of Rohingya refugees back to Myanmar, which witnessed a coup last month [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1] and where the Rohingya remain a heavily persecuted minority. [Reuters]

The Hindu-nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has for years asked state and territory governments to identify and deport the estimated 40,000 Rohingya refugees scattered across different Indian states, despite international law prohibiting states from refoulement, i.e. returning asylum seekers to a country where they risk persecution. About 15,000 of the refugees hold ID cards registered with the United Nations High Commissioner For Refugees (UNHCR), which are supposed to offer protection from arbitrary detention. India, which did not sign the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, however, treats all Rohingya entering the country as illegal immigrants. [Al Jazeera]

Many Rohingya believe that the latest crackdown is linked to the Legislative Assembly elections of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly, which are scheduled to be held from between March and April. Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has made it an election promise to deport the Rohingya if they win. [The Guardian]

Thus, the process, which is likely to continue in the coming days, has sparked panic among the Rohingya refugee population. Being stateless in their home country of Myanmar, they are unable to travel to another country legally. Eager to avert deportation, many of them have therefore gone in hiding in other Indian states or entered Bangladesh. [Channel NewsAsia] [France24] [Voice of America]

Moreover, India has ordered the Assam Rifles, its oldest paramilitary force that is guarding the Indo-Myanmar border, to prevent any Myanmar national from crossing into Indian territory. New Delhi has also yet to respond to Myanmar’s request to send back eight police officers who had entered India's northeastern state of Mizoram to escape taking orders from the military junta. [The Straits Times]

Since Myanmar’s military – the Tatmadaw - overthrew and detained the country’s elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi this February, New Delhi has been taking a cautious approach, being wary of China’s growing influence and the high stakes involved to maintain peace and security along the India-Myanmar border. Hours before the second closed meeting of the 15-member UN Security Council, India on March 5 said that it has been discussing the situation with partner countries and the issues in the country should be resolved through peaceful manner. [Nikkei Asia] [South China Morning Post] [The Indian Express]

China, Pakistan reiterate commitment to China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor

(lm) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized on March 2 Beijing and Islamabad should continue to support their China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC) and expand their strategic partnership. Wang made the remarks during a video call with his Pakistani counterpart, Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, which was made to mark the 70th anniversary of the countries establishing diplomatic relations. [South China Morning Post]

Launched in 2013, the CPEC is part of Beijing's international infrastructure strategy known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Though often valued at $62 billion, only about $25 billion worth of CPEC projects have so far been developed, giving rise to concerns that the alliance has been exacting on Pakistan’s resources, people and international reputation. [Politico]

To keep the narrative of continued progress alive, Pakistan's Cabinet Committee on CPEC recently directed the relevant ministries to improve the pace of work on CPEC projects [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]. Beijing, in turn, the same month proposed a joint parliamentary oversight committee to strengthen its hold over the speed and quality over the implementation of projects under the CPEC [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1].

China offers $1.1 billion to Sri Lanka under loan and currency swap facility

(lm) China will endorse a $500 million loan and a currency swap facility worth $600 million to Sri Lanka within the next couple of weeks, local news reported on March 5, after Colombo late last month had made public its intentions to seek $2.2 billion from Chinese banks to avoid a serious foreign exchange crisis. [News First] [WION]

Leading up to 2021, several rating agencies downgraded Sri Lanka’s sovereign credit ratings, indicating concerns about Colombo’s ability to fulfill foreign debt repayments. At the end of January, then, Colombo’s foreign reserves plummeted to $4.8 billion, the lowest since September 2009.

Besides imposing import restrictions, to manage its foreign debt problem Sri Lanka has mainly relied on currency swaps, largely obtained from India. Colombo obtained a $400 million currency swap facility from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last June [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4]. However, the RBI this February refused to provide the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) a further extension of the facility saying that the rollover would require Colombo having a successfully negotiated staff-level agreement for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Sri Lankan health authorities yet to approve Chinese COVID-19 vaccine

(lm) Sri Lanka continues to find itself in the midst of a diplomatic tug of war between India and China, which revolves around free consignments of COVID-19 vaccines [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. On March 3, China offered afresh to donate 600,000 doses produced by its state-owned company Sinopharm for the second phase of COVID-19 vaccination. However, Sri Lankan health authorities have so far refused to approve the vaccine, saying Sinopharm had not submitted papers relating to phase three trials. [The Hindu Business Line]

Late last month, Sri Lanka ordered 13.5 million doses of India’s Covishield (the local name for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine developed in the United Kingdom) in addition to the 500,000 doses gifted by New Delhi earlier. For the second round of vaccinations, Colombo will also receive another 1.69 million doses from Covishield under the COVAX initiative of the World Health Organization (WHO). [WHO]

Meanwhile, health authorities on March 4 approved the Sputnik V vaccine, which was developed by the Russian Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, making it the second jab available in Sri Lanka. [Reuters]

India moving to partner Uzbekistan on Chabahar

(lm) Ministers from Afghanistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia joint India in commemorating “Chabahar Day” on March 4, the third and final day of the Maritime India Summit (MIS). Held virtually, the dialogue follows on a meeting between Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Uzbek counterpart in New Delhi earlier this month. [The Economic Times]

Chabahar Port is being jointly developed by India, Iran and Afghanistan to boost trade ties among the three countries. Located on Iran's energy-rich southern coast, it is the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, and thus can be easily accessed from India’s western coast, bypassing Pakistan. Against the backdrop of signs that the new US administration under President Biden might re-engage with Tehran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the port is being increasingly seen as a fulcrum of connectivity to Central Asia through Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

The first trilateral Working Group meeting between India, Iran and Uzbekistan on the joint use of the port was held virtually in December last year, and addressed the utilization of the port for trade and transit purposes as well as the implementation of transit strategies for enhanced regional connectivity [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Last month, then, India’s official heading the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran Division in the External Affairs Ministry embarked on a two-day trip to Tehran to meet with key officials in the administration Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

India sending rice, medical assistance to Madagascar as drought relief

(lm) India has sent a consignment of 1000 metric tons of rice and 100,000 tablets of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) as humanitarian assistance to Madagascar, where successive droughts and COVID-19 disruptions have deepened poverty and pushed an estimated 1.3 million people into famine-like conditions. Food and medical assistance are expected to reach Madagascar later this month.

Coming as it does in the wake of India deepening further its strategic bonds with both the Maldives and Mauritius [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1], there is a good case to believe that the humanitarian and disaster relief operation is complementing New Delhi’s efforts to expand its presence in the western Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In fact, the ships carrying the food assistance will also have on board an Indian naval training team, which is being deployed in Madagascar for capacity building and training of the Malagasy Special Forces for two weeks. [Hindustan Times]

What is more, Madagascar has been pitching for stronger defense ties with India, with the defense minister earlier this month saying that New Delhi would provide a security umbrella to countries in the region. The minister was attending the first ever IOR Defense Ministers Conclave, which had been organized by India’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) to promote defense cooperation among the participating countries. Significantly, the constituted the highlight of this year’s iteration of India’s premier air show, Aero India, during which the MoD released a list of 156 defense items cleared for export. [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Bangladesh seeks economic, not security relations with United States, says foreign minister

(lm) Bangladesh has conveyed to the United States that it would prioritize support in infrastructure projects and investment over purchasing defense equipment, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said on March 2. Momen recently completed a working visit to Washington, during which he held a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss bilateral cooperation to jointly address major challenges, including climate change, in South Asia and the greater Indo-Pacific region [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. [Dhaka Tribune]

Earlier this year the US ambassador to Bangladesh had ensured Dhaka that the new Biden-Harris Administration would continue to make the Indo-Pacific and South Asia a significant priority. The remarks came after months of coordinated effort by Washington to entice Dhaka into closer embrace as a key Indo-Pacific partner to counter China’s growing financial and political footprint in the region [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3, AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Indian Army provides combat training to Turkmenistan Special Forces

(lm) Indicating deepening defense ties, India’s Special Forces Training School (SFTS) last week commenced a series of training courses for paratroopers of the Turkmenistan Special Forces to help them build enhanced combat skills. Furthermore, a team of the Indian Army’s Special Forces will be visiting Ashgabat in August, and later be participating in this year’s Turkmen Independence Day Parade to be held on September 27. [The EurAsian Times]

In 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian leader to visit Turkmenistan after a gap of two decades. The two sides had then signed a ‘Defense Cooperation Agreement’, which underscored the growing importance of Turkmenistan and the Central Asian region for India’s security-strategic calculus. Three years later, Turkmenistan’s defense minister met with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi and emphasized intensifying bilateral defense and security cooperation through exchanges of visits of high and mid-level officials and training, among others.

More recently, the two countries held their fourth round of Foreign Office Consultations, reviewing the various aspects of bilateral relations, including political, economic, commercials, defense, scientific, cultural, education, and consular cooperation.

India, Uzbekistan launch second edition of joint military exercise

(lm) A contingent of the Uzbekistan army arrived New Delhi on March 8 to participate in the second iteration of the India-Uzbekistan joint military exercise “Dustlik. Around 45 soldiers from both countries will be participating in the 10-day field training, which was first carried out in November 2019. [Outlook India]

India, New Zealand foreign ministers discuss Indo-Pacific aspirations

(lm) India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and his counterpart from New Zealand, Nanaia Mahuta held a phone conversation on March 1 to discuss bilateral relations, as well as ways to work jointly for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. [Hindustan Times]

Pakistani military kills 5 militants in response to recent attacks in Balochistan

(lm) Pakistan’s security forces on March 8 killed five members of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), an outlawed militant organization that wages a violent armed struggle for separation of Balochistan from Pakistan. [The Tribune]

Before the intelligence-based operation, terrorists belonging to the BLA had carried out at least two attacks in the province. Five construction workers were killed and five more injured when their vehicle hit a roadside bomb on March 5. The following day, four members of the Pakistan Navy were killed and another two seriously injured during an ambush near the port city of Gwadar. [South Asia Monitor 1] [South Asia Monitor 2]

Three “commanders” of Pakistan Taliban killed in northwestern tribal region

(lm) Pakistan’s military announced on March 8 it had killed four members of the country’s leading Taliban group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in two separate security operations in Waziristan, including three senior members. [Anadolu Agency]

The intelligence-based operations came after the TTP had recently conducted a number of high-profile terrorist attacks [see e.g. AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4], indicating a resurgence of its activities. The visible uptick in attacks over the past year in the former semi-autonomous tribal region bordering Afghanistan is believed to be the result of the TTP’s reunification with three formerly estranged factions in August last year [see No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [The Diplomat]

India, Nigeria hold inaugural session of counter-terrorism dialogue

(lm) India and Nigeria on March 6 vowed to enhance cooperation against all forms of terrorism. At the invitation of India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, his Nigerian counterpart visited New Delhi for the first Strategic and Counter-Terrorism Dialogue. [Business Standard]

Earlier India shipped nearly 4 million doses of Covishield (the local name for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine developed in the United Kingdom) to Nigeria, the third and largest delivery so far to an African country by the global COVAX initiative.

US to bolster deterrence in South China Sea

(nd) As part of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative that the US Indo-Pacific Command has submitted to Congress, the US plans to upgrade its regular deterrence against China with a network of precision-strike missiles along the so-called first island chain, and integrated air missile defense in the second island chain. The first island chain describes land features in the western Pacific stretching from Japan, to Taiwan, and through Philippines and Indonesia in the South China Sea. The second island chain is located further to the east, starting in Japan and running through Guam. An estimated around $27 billion will therefore be invested through fiscal year 2027. The bill suggests to modernize and strengthen the presence of US forces, improve logistics and maintenance capabilities, carry out joint force exercises and innovation, improve infrastructure to enhance responsiveness and resiliency. The amount is a 36% increase over the planned spending, showcasing the level of alarm with respect to Chinese activity in the South China Sea, aiming to avoid a permanent change of the status quo.

With respect to the implementation of the plan, China objected earlier against the US to place missiles in allied countries, e.g. South Korea. According to a Japanese defense white paper, the US has about 132,000 troops stationed in the Indo-Pacific. China’s military renewal is ongoing, holding a diverse missile arsenal. China holds about 1,250  ground-based, intermediate-range missiles, while the US has none due to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which banned the development of ground-based missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km until 2019. The Chinese arsenal makes the traditional Navy and Air Force centered US approach less feasible, and the deployment of intermediate range missiles in the Indo-Pacific a subject of discussion between the US and Japan. Right now, none of the US’s missiles in Japan could reach China, and deploying weapons there could lead to diplomatic tensions. About 55,000 US troops are stationed in Japan, forming the largest contingent of American troops abroad. [Nikkei Asia] [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesia: Additional patrol vessels for Natuna Sea

(nd) The Indonesian Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Ministry introduced two new modern patrol vessels in an effort to boost the protection of the country’s marine and fisheries resources from illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities. The ships will be used for routine patrols in the Malacca Strait and North Natuna Sea. The ships have a maximum speed of 29 knots and are fitted with drones to document possible confrontations.

Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone and territorial waters are vulnerable

(nd) Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Riyadh for talks to sign memorandums of understanding (MoU). The relationship between the Kingdom and Malaysia are longstanding. The ties between the two countries are deepening, with many joint initiatives on the horizon. Saudi Arabia was the first country Yassin visited as Prime Minister. [Arab News]

Singapore, US to reaffirm bilateral defense ties

(nd) In a recent telephone call, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and his Singaporean counterpart Ng Eng Hen reaffirmed their bilateral defense ties and voiced a desire to deepen them, discussing current regional security challenges. The US expressed appreciation for the regional access provided to US forces in Singapore, and they emphasized their wish to cooperate with respect to inter alia US force posture and counterterrorism. [Straits Times]

Philippines, India to reach agreement over supersonic missiles

(nd) In an effect of turning into an arms exporter, India signed a contract with the Philippines for the sale of "defense material and equipment", which are likely to include BrahMos cruise missiles. The Indian BrahMos missile is considered to be the fastest supersonic missile in the world, travelling at three times the speed of sound and able to be fired from ships, submarines, aircraft and ground launchers. The missile itself has a range of 290 kilometers. It is likely the Filipino interest is due to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, urging the Philippines to strengthen their defense capabilities, also in light of a recent Chinese law, allowing its coast guard to open fire on foreign vessels.

India has offered the Philippines a 100-million-dollar soft loan to acquire the missiles last December with a possible extension. The deal could facilitate India’s entry as an exporter in the global defense market. Besides the Philippines, Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates announced their interest, reportedly India had talks with Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa. [Wio News]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

10 March 2021 @ 3:30 pm IST, Centre for Policy Research, India   

Election Adda at CPR: How will West Bengal vote in 2021?

This webinar will take a closer look at the West Bengal election as one of the most anticipated electoral contests, potentially offering new insights into the effects of religious polarisation in electoral contests, among other developments. The discussion will focus on the impact of the surprise gains made by the BJP in 2019 on the current electoral landscape, as well as the implications of the competition on West Bengal’s social and political life.

Please visit [CPR] for more information.

10 March 2021 @ 1:00 pm CET, Egmont Institute, Belgium  

Crossing Borders, crossing paths: Tools for preventing conflicts over transhumance in the Sudano-Sahel

This interactive presentation and discussion of a new guide for funding agencies, diplomatic staff, and practitioners, will try to take a more interrelated perspective on conflicts between famers and migration cattle herders as well as transnational trade between African communities.

For more information, see [Egmont Institute].

10 March 2021 @ 16:00 pm EDT, The Royal United Services Institute, UK

Russians Among Us: Sleeper Cells, Ghost Stories and the Hunt for Putin’s Agents

This event will discuss the deep cover spies in America and the FBI agents who tracked them.

Please register here: [RUSI]

10 March 2021 @ 15:00 - 16:15 pm IST, Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India

Enabling Access to Clean Cooking Energy for the Urban Poor

This event will provide an overview of the cooking fuel use patterns in urban slum households.

Please find more details: [CEEW]

11 March 2021 @ 13:00 - 14:00 GMT, Overseas Development Institute, UK

Agency and empowerment for adolescent girls beyond Covid-19

As governments roll out Covid-19 response plans, a critical window of opportunity arises to reshape adolescent girls’ programs, anchoring them in girls’ voices, leadership and ambitions. Dedicated strategies to reach and support adolescent girls have been advocated, however challenges to scaling up approaches include sustainable financing, and weak systems with limited integration. Policymakers and community leadership also tend to be resistant and sceptical of meaningful adolescent girls’ engagement.

Please register here: [ODI]

11 March, 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:00 pm ET, Foreign Policy Research Institute, US

One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World

This event will discuss how has OBOR worked to attract partners for China both economically and diplomatically? What are China’s motives for the OBOR project and how can the West compete with the growing empire?

More information available at [FPRI].

11 March 2021 @ 9:15 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France 

European Security Cooperation with Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans

As the European Union has tried to become a more ambitious geopolitical actor in recent years, this event will discuss ideas and policy recommendations by ECFR fellows on the security compact and try to extend these ideas to the Western Balkans, focussing first on security cooperation with Eastern Partnership countries and secondly on Western Balkans countries.

Please visit [ECFR] for more information and mandatory registration.

11 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm CET, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland

Counter-Terrorism and Covid-19: Gendered Perspectives

This expert panel will discuss the gendered impacts of securitized approaches to the prevention of violent extremism and counter terrorism, the new challenges that have emerged through the pandemic, as well as the principles to guide civil society actors and governments moving forward. Please register in advance.

For more information, follow [DCAF].

11 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm ET, Center for New American Security, United States

Virtual Book Discussion: The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Tech Valley

In this webinar, military affairs reporter Wesley Morgan will discuss his book and its central themes, capturing the culture and reality of the war and the snowballing American missteps in the war. Building reporting trips, interviews, and documentary research, he concludes that a status quo was created that could potentially last forever as the military and intelligence agencies continually look for new targets.

If you wish to join this discussion, please visit [CNAS].

11 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm PHST, Phillipe Institute for Development Studies, Philippines 

Digital Platforms: Implications for the Philippines and Developing Asia

In collaboration with the Asian Development Bank, this webinar will evaluate the increasing use and adoption of digital technology and its impacts on the lives of people, considering benefits and risks of the digital transformation as well as ways to ensure financial inclusion in the digital economy. Also, Dr. Jose Ramon Albert will present his paper “Towards Measuring the Platform Economy: Concepts, Indicators, and Issues”.

For more information, visit [PIDS].

11 March 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, Institute for Public Policy Research, Great Britain  

Communities and Climate Action

While governments certainly play a crucial role in tackling climate change, communities themselves can undertake activities to help combat climate change in a wide range of fields, including energy generation, flood defences, and community resilience-building. This webinar will evaluate the wider social and economic benefits that communities can reap when tackling climate change, from empowering communities to creating thriving places.

For more information, please see [IPPR].

11 March 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, United States   

Ambassadors Series: A Conversation with Ambassador Taranjit Singh Sandhu

In this webinar, Indian Ambassador to the United States Taranjit Singh Sandhu will reflect on US-India relations and Indian foreign policy amid shifts in global trade, the new Biden administration, developments in the Indo-Pacific region, and the ongoing pandemic.

Please visit [Hudson Institute] if you wish to join the discussion.

12 March 2021 @ 4:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan 

Indonesia’s Social Activism and Implications to Japan

This is the second webinar of a series on Labour, Poverty and Social Activism under Covid-19 and will evaluate implications from Indonesia, considering in particular the Omnibus Law and its impacts on employment, as well as the long-term design of social movements through inter-generational collaboration.

If you are interested in participating in this webinar, please visit [SPF] for more information and prior registration.

12 March 2021 @ 4:30 pm EST, Center for South Asian Studies, United States

The Price of Acceptability: On South Asian Inclusion and Exclusion in the US

Vivek Bald, scholar of Comparative Media Studies at MIT, will trace out how South Asians have been simultaneously celebrated in US pop culture while only being accepted within narrowly and purposefully drawn limits as immigrants and citizens, building on past and ongoing historical research and assessing key moments in South Asian American history.

Please visit [UMich] for more information.

12 March 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, United States 

The Future of US-China Relations: A Conversation with Representative Michael McCaul

Michael McCaul (R-TX), member of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Hudson Institute fellows will discuss the prospects for holding the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership accountable for the repression of the Uyghur population, defending the rights Hong Kongers, deterring military activities against Taiwan, and ensuring that the US is prepared to compete with China.

For more information, follow [Hudson Institute].

15 March 2021 @ 5:00 pm CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France

European Power in a Biden Era: What Role for France and Germany?

This virtual discussion will ask: How can France and Germany work together in their engagement with the Biden administration when their own positions are often far apart? Should the two countries continue pushing Europe towards strategic sovereignty? And how will France take this agenda forward in its EU Council Presidency in 2022? Registration is required.  

If you are interested in joining this webinar, please visit [ECFR] for more information.

15 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium

Declining Competition: A Transatlantic Challenge

As research indicates that the pandemic has further strengthened market power in advanced economies, in this webinar speakers will discuss the rise in market power of members of the digital markets, as well as the scope for enhanced competition policy to address this trend. The event is held in cooperation with the Brookings Institution.

Please follow [Bruegel] for more information.

15 March 2021 @ 1:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium

Think green act local: The role of the G20 in sustainable infrastructure

This webinar will discuss priorities and proposals for the Italian G20 Presidency for a green local infrastructure, considering that building a sustainable local infrastructure will be crucial to meeting targets of the Paris Agreement.

See [Bruegel] for more information.

16 March 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy, Germany  

Introducing the Growing Global Coalition for Feminist Foreign Policy

As the UN Commission on the Status of Women comes together to evaluate the impact of women’s leadership, this webinar brings together a range of global government officials and civil society actors to present a framework for feminist foreign policy, identify main opportunities and challenges upon its implementation, and define how nations can advance feminist foreign policy irrespective of size.

If you are interested in this event, please visit [CFFP] for more information and registration details.

16 March 2021 @ 1:00 pm ET, Center for a New American Security, United States 

Special Event: Crafting a U.S. National Technology Strategy

As the United States faces a strategic competition with China, perceived as a fundamental challenge to the economic vitality and national security of the United States and its allies, technology will be key to this competition, enabling economic, political, and military power. Thus, the United States will have to develop a framework for long-term innovation and technological leadership.

For more information, please visit [CNAS].

16 March 2021 @ 1:00 - 2:30 pm EDT, Center for Strategic and Budgetary

Assessments, USA

CSBA Webinar on Maritime Strategy

This event will feature leading international security scholars, each of whom has published in a recent special issue of the journal Security Studies (Volume 29, Issue 4) and several companion pieces from the recent War On The Rocks series, Maritime Strategy on the Rocks.

For more information, see [CSBA].

16 March 2021 @ 1:00 - 2:00 pm EDT, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

Securing America: A Conversation with Cyber Experts Who Secure the Things We Love

This event will discuss how they secure the things that we love, their thoughts on cyber defense and our nation's resilience amid ambient cyber conflict, and how to bridge the gap between trust and safety of products and services we use and our national security. 

For more information, see [Belfercenter].

16 March 2021 @ 9:00 - 18:00 pm GMT, Nanyang technological, Singapore

China under Xi: Policies and Challenges

This event is an extensive effort to evaluate the Xi’s political legitimacy from a variety of perspectives, including foreign affairs, elite power-sharing, central-local relationship, media and social controls, industrial and economic policies, and ruling ideology

For more information, see [RSIS]

17 March 2021 @ 4:30 - 6:30 pm GMT, Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore

IPS Closed-Door Discussion on Economic Recovery from COVID-19

Over the past few months, COVID-19 has caused large-scale disruptions to the global economy. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that the global economy is likely to contract by 3% in real terms in 2020. Global Trade is not expected to regain its pre-COVID-19 levels before 2023

For more information, see [IPS]

18 March 2021 @ 7:00 pm ET, Asia Society, United States 

Beijing’s Early Reactions to the Biden Administration

This webinar discusses the development of US-China relations in 2020 as a year that fundamentally altered the direction of US-Sino relations and world affairs, as well as where these relations are headed in 2021. It will start out with a keynote speech on Beijing’s early reactions to the Biden administration. 

If you are interested in this event, please follow [Asia Society].

19 March 2021 @ 11:00 - 12:00 pm GMT, Asian Development Bank, Japan

Book Launch: Enhancing SME Participation in Global Value Chains: Determinants, Challenges, and Policy Recommendations

This event will discuss boosting small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) trade in developing Asia and the Pacific, as well as opportunities and challenges toward increasing the role of SMEs in cross-border production and supply chains.

For more information, see [ADB].

22 March 2021 @ 11:00 - 12:15 pm SGT, Institute of Water Policy, Singapore

The role of natural infrastructure in integrated urban water management: A Southeast Asian perspective

This event will be an overview of the recent literature on natural infrastructure in Southeast Asia to highlight key implementation barriers

Please register here: [IWP]

Recent book releases 

Vigil J. Wasserstrom J, Hong Kong on the Brink, Columbia Global Reports, 112 pages, February 11, 2020, reviewed in [Asian Review].

Kishore Mahbubani, Has China Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, Public Affairs, 320 pages, March 21, 2020 reviewed in [The National Interest].

Calls

Goethe University Frankfurt is invites to submit papers a workshop on the topic Turkey in/for (Global) International Relations, scheduled for November 25-26, 2021. Closing date for submission is March 31, 2021. For more details, see [Goethe University Frankfurt].

The City University of Hong Kong invites papers proposal for the edited volume “Space as Signifier: The Cityscapes of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taipei during the Cold War”. Closing date for submission is April 20, 2021. For more details, see [CAH]

Jobs & positions

The University of Bergen is offering a position of Posdoctorual Fellow in Philosophy of Criminal Law. The position is connected to the project ‘Remodelling criminal insanity and psychosis through the philosophical, legal, and medical DIMENSIONS of the medical model (DIMENSIONS)’, funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN). Application deadline is March 25, 2021. More about the vacancy at [UIB].

The Max Planck Institute Luxembourg is hiring a Research fellow to conduct legal research (contribution to common research projects and own publications), particularly in the field of European and Comparative Procedural Law, while playing a central role in undertaking and developing team-driven projects within the Institute and in partnership with international collaborators. Application deadline is March 31, 2021. For more detail, see [Max Planck Institute Luxembourg]

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