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Underlying Inflation Was Stubborn in January by Fed’s Preferred Metric

  • The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, remained above its target in January.
  • Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose slightly to 3.1% in January from 3% in December.
  • Individuals’ income and spending both increased by 0.4% in January, with spending growing at or faster than income.

 
Economy Was Even Slower in Fourth Quarter, New Estimate Shows

  • The Commerce Department reported the U.S. economy grew at an 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, revised from 1.4%.
  • The downward revision was driven by slower consumer spending and business investment.
  • International trade weighed on the GDP calculation, contrasting with the slight boost it provided in the advance report.
Canada Employment Drops in February, Lifting Jobless Rate to 6.7%

  • Canada’s employers shed a net 83,900 jobs last month, the most since January 2009 outside of the height of the global pandemic.
  • The jobless rate pushed up 0.2 percentage point to 6.7%.
  • Full-time work accounted for all of February’s employment decline, with a drop of 108,400 jobs more than offsetting the addition of 24,500 part-time positions.
Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Central Bank Decisions in Focus After Jump in Energy Prices

  • Major central banks globally are poised to make interest-rate decisions in the coming week amid the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
  • The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are also scheduled to make interest-rate decisions.
Consumer Sentiment Declined This Month, Per Michigan Survey

  • Consumer sentiment declined to 55.5 in March, according to a preliminary University of Michigan survey, as the Iran war began.
  • The survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, stated that lower readings after military action in Iran erased initial sentiment gains.
  • Consumers in the survey began perceiving stronger inflation ahead after the Iran war started, Hsu said.
Trump Targets Housing Affordability in New Executive Orders

  • President Trump signed executive orders on Friday to ease mortgage rules for community banks and boost new-home construction.
  • One order directed bank regulators to reform capital and liquidity rules and modernize appraisal regulations.
  • Another order called on federal agencies to incentivize state and local governments to cut costly mandates and speed up permits.
 

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