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Farmers Race to Replace Chinese Buyers; Holiday Risks Loom for Retailers; Tesla's New Standard

By Mark R. Long | WSJ Logistics Report

 

Note: Continuous contract. Source: FactSet

American soybean growers are trekking to Cambodia, Tunisia and other far-flung places on a daunting mission: replacing their biggest customer, China.

The Wall Street Journal’s Patrick Thomas writes that farmers expect a bumper crop just as President Trump’s trade war has prompted China to boycott U.S. soybeans. The oilseed is serving as a potent weapon in Beijing’s trade fight with Washington. China accounted for more than half of the $24.5 billion worth of U.S. soybean exports last year, but it hasn’t booked any purchases in months.

U.S. farmers already were wrestling with rising costs for equipment and fertilizer. Congress in December passed a $10 billion bailout for farmers, and the Trump administration is considering allocating an additional $10 billion to $14 billion to farmers to mitigate trade-war fallout.

 

PHOTO: SHAWN THEW / EPA / BLOOMBERG

The U.S. could negotiate separate trade deals with Canada and Mexico rather than renegotiating 2020's U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is up for review next year, Trump said in a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canada was hoping for some relief on tariffs, but the two leaders announced no concrete agreement. 

  • A retreat in goods exports widened Canada’s trade deficit in August to 6.32 billion Canadian dollars, or about about $4.53 billion. (WSJ)
  • The EU’s top trade officials are proposing a 50% tariff on steel imports above a certain quota as the bloc moves to shield its struggling sector from overcapacity. (WSJ)
  • The WTO expects global trade in goods to increase by 2.4% in 2025, more than previously forecast, as AI-related purchases surge and stockpiling in the U.S. softens the hit from higher tariffs. (WSJ)
 
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Quotable

“We’ll see the bottom drop out if we don’t get a deal with China soon.”

— Ron Kindred, who farms 1,700 acres of corn and soybeans in Illinois
 

Retail

Levi Strauss is among the retailers that have stockpiled products amid tariffs and other supply-chain upheavals this year. PHOTO: ANDREW KASUKU/AP

From Ralph Lauren to Levi Strauss and American Eagle Outfitters, retailers bulked up their inventories before import tariffs went into effect. Now, the Journal’s Jennifer Williams writes, they face the risk that inflation-wary shoppers won’t spend as much or will buy fewer higher-price items during the crucial holiday shopping season.

For some retailers, this could mean deep discounting to work through excess inventory, which would ultimately hit margins. Inventory for apparel brands was up an average of 6.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to Telsey Advisory Group. Meanwhile, consumers surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers said they expect their holiday spending this year to decline on average by 5% compared with last year, the first notable drop since 2020.

 
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Automakers

The new ‘standard’ Model Y is priced at $39,990. IMAGE: TESLA / REUTERS

Tesla unveiled stripped-down versions of its bestselling SUV and sedan, but the new lower prices don’t quite cover the recently expired $7,500 EV tax credit. The Journal’s Becky Peterson writes that the “standard” Model Y and Model 3 lack features such as wraparound ambient lighting and power-adjusted steering wheels, in the hope of drawing in budget-conscious buyers.

The standard Model 3 costs $36,990 and the standard Model Y $39,990, putting them among the least-expensive electric vehicles for sale in the U.S., which could better position Tesla to compete globally against low-cost EVs from China.

  • BMW slashed its profitability forecast for the year as the German premium-car maker continues to face weak demand in China. (WSJ)
  • Mercedes-Benz car and van sales fell 12% to 525,300 vehicles in the third quarter as a challenging Chinese market and Trump’s auto tariffs hit consumer appetite. (WSJ)
  • Jaguar Land Rover plans to help boost cash flow for its suppliers as it restarted more manufacturing after a crippling cyberattack. (WSJ)
 

Number of the Day

2.6 Million

Loads posted to the DAT One truckload spot market in the week ended Oct. 4, up 13% from the previous week and 29% higher than a year earlier.

 

In Other News

The International Energy Agency slashed its forecast for renewable energy capacity growth in the U.S. this decade, citing the phase-out of federal tax incentives and regulatory shifts. (WSJ)

Orsted raised $9.4 billion to fund offshore wind projects amid challenges including supply-chain delays, inflation and Trump’s opposition to wind energy. (WSJ)

German manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell for the fourth consecutive month in August, decreasing by 0.8% after a 2.7% drop in July. (WSJ)

Shell expects higher third-quarter earnings from its integrated gas trading, offsetting weaker oil prices with improved refining margins. (WSJ)

McCormick logged higher profit and sales, though the spice company noted higher costs have eaten into its bottom line. (WSJ)

South32 agreed to sell about $17.8 million of Trilogy Metals stock to the Defense Department as part of a deal for the U.S. to take a 10% stake in the Canadian mining company. (WSJ)

Vietnam’s Vingroup has established a new steel-making unit that plans to invest $380 million in a new plant to help reduce dependence on China. (Nikkei Asia)

Navigation-system interference showing ships traveling the wrong speed has reportedly increased in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations. (TradeWinds)

South Korea’s Hanwha hired retired Navy Rear Admiral Tom Anderson as its head of shipbuilding at its Hanwha Defense USA unit. (USNI News)

 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com.

Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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