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How Should Public Markets Value AI Infrastructure Startups?

By Jon Leckie, WSJ Pro

 

Good day. Chip manufacturer Cerebras Systems has formally announced plans to offer 28 million shares of common stock as part of its initial public offering. The proposal could value the company at more than $26.6 billion.

At that valuation, Cerebras has a price-to-sales ratio above 50 based on 2025 revenue—more than double the trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratio of rival Nvidia, according to financial-data provider LSEG. Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida, has calculated that IPOs with a valuation more than 40-times greater than sales underperform on average.

Still, secondary traders continue to pay a premium for Cerebras. The company is valued at $30.5 billion as of May 7, according to data aggregator Caplight. Are secondary traders seeing the future value of AI infrastructure? Or are the public-market warning signs pointing to disappointment for late-stage investors? Please email responses to vcnews@wsj.com. 

Last week, we asked about the potential impact of a Food and Drug Administration pilot program meant to speed up clinical trials and data collection with artificial intelligence. Here are responses, edited for length and clarity:

  • Stef van Grieken, co-founder and CEO, Cradle: “Drug development is slow at every stage, and AI is finally starting to compress those cycles—from molecule design to clinical readouts. But AI is only as good as the data feeding it, and clinical data has been one of the most stubborn bottlenecks. Pulling it directly from electronic health records in real time is exactly the kind of unlock the field needs to get more, and better, therapeutics to patients faster.”
     
  • Lindy Fishburne, managing partner, Breakout Ventures: “The moment is here for the FDA to embrace technologies that allow it to optimize for both safety and speed. The business of the FDA, moving patient data files around faster, should be low-hanging wins. More complex gains will come from integrating real-world evidence, more predictive clinical trial cohorts and use of synthetic control arms in trials."
     
  • Ann DeWitt, general partner, Engine Ventures: “Reducing early-phase trial time and cost is often the difference between a therapy reaching patients and never getting there. Real-time data-sharing is a genuine unlock for young companies and their investors. What we'd love to see next: adaptive trial protocols that update dosing and patient selection dynamically, not just report signals faster.”

And now on to the news...

 
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Top News

PHNX Materials’ co-founders Krish Mehta and Jorge Osio-Norgaard. PHNX MATERIALS

Waste not, want not. Krish Mehta has come to believe the U.S. shouldn’t rely on a supply chain controlled by a geopolitical foe to build advanced technology. Now, Mehta thinks he has a way to help loosen China’s chokehold on chip-making materials. 

  • His startup, PHNX Materials, has raised $12.5 million to work on a domestic supply chain for critical semiconductor raw materials gallium, germanium and silicon, by extracting them from industrial waste like coal ash.
     
  • The funding includes an oversubscribed $6.5 million seed round led by Trust Ventures, alongside backing from KdT Ventures, Overture and Divergent Capital.

“These aren’t resources that need to be mined—they’ve already been dug up.”

— PHNX Materials’ co-founder and CEO Krish Mehta

Ramp, a Corporate Card Startup, Raising Cash at $40 Billion Valuation

The corporate card and expense management startup Ramp has kicked off another major fundraising effort. The company has told investors it is raising $750 million at a valuation of more than $40 billion before the investment, according to people familiar with the matter. Existing investors Iconiq Capital and GIC are coleading the round, the people said. The financing—which would represent more than a 30% increase from the company’s valuation roughly six months ago—hasn’t yet closed, and it is unclear whether additional major investors will participate. 

SpaceX Tees Up Massive Spending Ahead of IPO

SpaceX’s bill for capital investments is growing by the billions as the Elon Musk-led company prepares for a huge public offering. The Terafab chip complex that SpaceX plans to develop with Tesla is expected to require at least $55 billion in estimated capital spending, according to a local-government notice about the Texas project. The rockets, satellites and AI company is investing in building space-related infrastructure, including launchpads in Florida and a new solar-cell factory in Texas. There are also plans to spend even more to potentially send up to one million AI satellites to low-Earth-orbit in the years ahead.

 
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Industry News

Funds

Griffin Gaming Partners launched a new $100 million fund to invest in indie games.

Refactor raised $50 million for its fifth fund to continue investing in seed-stage startups.

Exits

Lumen Technologies agreed to purchase Alkira, a cloud networking platform, for $475 million in cash.

 

Deal Talk

A screenshot of the Degen app with a featured gen and a selection of trending gens. MOTHER.TECH

AI unhinged. Consumer startup MOTHER.tech has raised a $15 million seed round led by GV, formerly Google Ventures. The startup is launching Degen, an AI creative engine that replaces prompt engineering with artist-built "gens"—creative templates designed for fun. “AI slop for degens,” the app says. “Unhinged and on-demand.”

We asked Sangeen Geb, general partner at GV, about MOTHER.tech and the deal. (The launch wasn't timed for Mother’s Day.) Here are his responses, edited for length and clarity: 

WSJ Pro: Provide a summary of the deal.

Geb: I got excited about the next consumer boom, and I approached Mother about their game initially, only to realize there was a lot more under the hood; I’m excited about the entire portfolio of applications they are working on.

WSJ Pro: Describe more how MOTHER.tech differs from other AI creation studios.

Geb: They believe in a future where humans are part of the creation process at the same level as big companies—for Degen that means consumers get the same access to orchestration and media generation pipelines as the pros.

WSJ Pro: What's the most popular gen? Or the favorite gen?

Geb: Most popular is Make Me Mini and my fav? 90s Mall Portrait, which is like an old Glamour Shot.

WSJ Pro: How was the name MOTHER.tech decided on?

Geb: Mother is the origin point of something new—the materialization of it all, the matrix space.

WSJ Pro: If you were to compare this startup to a movie or TV show, what would it be?

Geb: “Fight Club.” “It’s only after we’ve lost everything that we’re free to do anything.” Mother is about the awakening of the user, a future reality that hinges on the 1% of uniqueness that each of us possess.

WSJ Pro: What’s a suggestion from the VCs that the founders ignored?

Geb: To take my money sooner.

 

New Money

Kalshi, a New York-based prediction markets platform, scored a $1 billion Series F round at a $22 billion valuation. Coatue led the investment, which included participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm and others.

Astranis, a San Francisco-based manufacturer and operator of satellites for critical enterprise and national security, raised over $450 million in new capital, bringing the company’s valuation up to $2.8 billion. The new funds include a $300 million Series E round from investors including Snowpoint Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz.

Corgi Insurance, a San Francisco-based insurance platform for startups, nabbed $160 million in Series B funding at a $1.3 billion valuation. TCV led the round, which included additional support from Kindred Ventures, Repeat, GSBackers and others.

Quantum Motion, a London-headquartered silicon transistor-based quantum computing startup, secured $160 million in Series C funding co-led by DCVC and Kembara.

Tessera Labs, a startup bringing AI-native automation to enterprise resource planning transformation, picked up a $60 million investment. Andreessen Horowitz led the funding, which saw participation from Foundation Capital and others. Seema Amble, partner at Andreessen Horowitz, will join the company’s board.

Lunar Outpost, a Golden, Colo.-based space mobility and infrastructure startup developing advanced robotic systems for extreme environments, secured $30 million in Series B financing. Industrious Ventures led the round, which included contributions from Type One Ventures, Eniac Ventures and Promus Ventures.

Vori, a San Francisco-based startup building an operating system for grocery stores to run autonomously, fetched $22 million in Series B funding. Cherryrock Capital led the round, which saw participation from Greylock Partners and others.

Nace.AI, a Palo Alto, Calif.-headquartered startup building specialized AI agents to autonomously lead complex workflows, emerged from stealth with a $21.5 million seed investment. Led by Walden Catalyst, the funding included participation from General Catalyst and others.

Fazeshift, a San Francisco-headquartered startup that offers AI agents for accounts receivable, collected $17 million in Series A funding. F-Prime led the investment, which included participation from Gradient.

Pit, a Swedish startup helping companies build and deploy custom, production-grade software for their internal business operations, launched from stealth with $16 million in funding. Andreessen Horowitz led the investment, which included participation from Lakestar.

SageOx, a Seattle-based startup building shared context infrastructure for AI-native teams, was seeded with a $15 million investment led by Canaan Partners.

OpsMill, a Paris-headquartered infrastructure data management startup, raised $14 million in Series A funding led by IRIS.

 

Tech News

THOMAS R. LECHLEITER/WSJ

  • The ChatGPT-ification of American Business

  • National-Security Contractor HawkEye 360’s Shares Soar in IPO

  • What Is a ‘Compute Tax’ and Why Is the Idea Gaining Traction?

  • The Chip Craze Is Turning a Glass Company and a Toilet Maker Into AI Stocks

  • Elon Musk Summoned to France to Face Criminal Charges

 
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The WSJ Pro VC Team

This newsletter was compiled by Matthew Strozier and Zachary Cole.

Share your tips, comments and questions: vcnews@wsj.com

The team: Matthew Strozier, Yuliya Chernova, and Brian Gormley.

Join us on LinkedIn. 

 
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