Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 15, April/2021, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Wishing you all the best for Songkran, the Thai New Year, the AiR team is presenting you this week’s brief on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Syria and Zimbabwe which celebrate Evacuation Day and Independence Day this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Alibaba sentenced to record fine for violating anti-trust rules

(dql) Concluding a months-long anti-trust investigation, China’s regulators sentenced Alibaba Group Holding, one of the country’s largest technology conglomerates and the world’s largest e-commerce company, to a 2.75 billion USD fine after the Chinese tech giant was found guilty of "abusing market dominance" since 2015 by preventing its merchants from using other online e-commerce platforms. [Channel News Asia]

The fine is the country’s highest ever anti-trust fine and reflects China’s recent efforts to rein in the country’s tech giants which thus far have been allowed to expand in a comparatively lax regulative environment. In November last year, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) released new anti-monopoly guidelines targeting internet platforms and tightening existing restrictions faced by the country’s tech giants, shortly after which the investigation of Alibaba begun. [AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5] 

In a latest development, Ant Group, an affiliate of Alibaba, announced that it will comply with suggestions of the SAMR to overhaul the company and place all financial-related activities in a holding company overseen by Beijing-based watchdog agencies. In an earlier move in November last year, regulators blocked Ant Group’s IPO, which was expected to raise 37 billion USD, the largest share sale in history. [South China Morning Post] [CNN]

China: Suspended death sentence against former Xinjiang government officials 

(dql) A Chinese court handed down a suspended death sentence to Sattar Sawut, the former head of the Xinjiang education department, for his role in writing and publishing of Uygur-language primary and secondary school textbooks in Xinjiang deemed to be fomenting ethnic hatred and separatist thoughts.

Along with Sawut, his deputy at the education department and two publishers of the books were each given life sentences. Two editors from the same publishing house were also found guilty, but their sentences were not specified. [South China Morning post 1]

Meanwhile, Shirzat Bawudun, the former head of the Xinjiang department of justice, was also sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve after he was found guilty of colluding with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The ETIM is listed as a terrorist group by the United Nations. The US removed the group from its list of terror groups last November. [France 24] [AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]

For critical assessments of the verdicts as part of a policy of “cultural genocide” in Xinjiang, see [AP News] and [Radio Free Asia]

Meanwhile, a court in Xinjiang has accepted a civil case filed against US-based German researcher Adrian Zenz by Shache Xiongying Textile Limited which said that it had suffered from heavy economic losses due to Zenz’s studies on the human rights situation in Xinjiang, decried by Chinese officials as fact-distorting.

Zenz is known for his claims of Beijing’s large-scale human rights abuses against Muslims in the far-western region. He is among the individuals sanctioned by China last month in its retaliatory response to sanctions from the European Union over Beijing’s treatment of the Uighur minority in Xinjiang. [ANI]

Furthermore, the Xinjiang regional government rejected findings of the Xinjiang Data Project – a database run by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) – which it decried as established by “anti-China organisations, personnel or ‘East Turkestan’ elements, and backed by United States and Western anti-China forces,” in order “to hype the anti-China sentiment and promote anti-China campaign.” Among others flaws of the database, it declared that 90% of the 380 buildings in Xinjiang were wrongly labelled by ASPI as internment facilities arguing out of those 380 buildings, 343 were schools, government buildings, hospitals, residential blocks or shops. [South China Morning Post 2]

Japan: Lawmakers begin weighing bill to sanction Uyghur human rights abuses

(dql) In a bipartisan move, Japanese lawmakers of both ruling and opposition parties have launched a group to work out and push for legislation similar to the US Magnitsky Act which would close a legal loophole and enable Japan to impose sanctions on countries over human rights abuses. [Kyodo News]

The legislative move comes short before Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s visit to the US this week, where he is expected to discuss with US President Joe Biden the question of Japan joining in imposing sanctions on China over what the US calls a genocide against the Uighur minority in Xinjiang. Thus far, Japan has shied away from imposing economic sanctions, citing its lack of a legal framework for such action.

For cautions against too high hopes for a more confrontative approach of Japan towards China on the US side, see Ben Ascione in [East Asia Forum].

Japan: Petition for LGBT anti-discrimination law submitted to government

(dql) A petition, signed by over 100.000 people, has been submitted to Japan’s government calling for the passage of an LGBT+ equality law before the commencement of the Olympic Games on July 23. 

The petition comes after LGBT+ campaigners struck a symbolic victory when a Japanese court last month ruled that Japan's failure to recognize same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. 

A bill to legalize same-sex marriages was brought to Japan's parliament by opposition parties in 2019 but failed to progress after it failed to win the backing of conservative lawmakers in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). [Japan Today] [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]

South Korea: Ruling party’s crushing defeat in mayoral vote

(dql) South Korea's ruling Democratic Party (DP) suffered a crushing defeat in last week’s mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan, the country's two biggest cities, with candidates from the opposition People Power Party (PPP) winning by big margins of 57.5% to 39% in Seoul and 63% to 34% in Busan. Taking responsibility for the election results, DP leaders resigned en masse. President Moon Jae-in, meanwhile, will reportedly reshuffle his Cabinet as early as this week in response to the election defeat. [Korea Herald] [Korea Times 1] [Korea Times 2]

The vote is widely considered as an important barometer of public opinion ahead of the presidential election next year, with the results suggesting a resurgence of the PPP amid growing discontent of the public with the DP and the Moon administration over economic policy failures, corruption scandals and property speculation cases. [BBC] [Reuters]

Taiwan: Ruling party and cabinet not to initiate any referendum

(dql) Taiwan’s government and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus decided not initiate any referendum proposals to counter a referendum on key policy issues which will be held in August and at  which Taiwan’s citizens will be asked whether they support: “one, the government’s decision to lift a ban on pork imports containing ractopamine; two, construction of a receiving terminal for natural gas, which could threaten Taoyuan’s Datan Algal Reef; three, activation of the mothballed Fourth Nuclear Power Plant; and four, holding referendums on the same day as national elections.” The referendum questions all basically oppose DPP policies. 

The decision was made at a DPP meeting convened by President Tsai Ing-wen, who doubles also a DPP chairperson, attended by officials from the Presidential Office, the Cabinet, the DPP, legislators and mayors, with most of them arguing that the government should focus its efforts on dealing with the aftermath of the nation’s worst rail disaster in decades and reforming the Taiwan Railways Administration. [Taipei Times]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: New Chief Justice appointed

(lm) Justice Nuthalapati Venkata Ramana, the second most senior judge at the Supreme Court of India, has been appointed as the 48th Chief Justice of India (CJI) with effect from April 24. Incumbent CJI Sharad A. Bobde had recommended Justice Ramana for appointment in a letter addressed to the Ministry of Law and Justice earlier in March. [The Hindu]

Before he became a judge in the Supreme Court in 2014, Justice Ramana had served the Chief Justice of Delhi High Court and the acting Chief Justice of Andhra Pradesh High Court. As CJI, Justice Ramana has a tenure of 16 months. [The New Indian Express]

Nepal: President reappoints four ministers, a day after their removal from Parliament

(lm) President Bidya Devi Bhandari on April 9 reappointed four former leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN(M)) as ministers in the KP Sharma Oli-led Cabinet, a day after they had lost their parliamentary membership for defecting from their party. [myRepublica]

Initially, all four ministers had lost their posts on April 8, after the CPN(M) - under which they had contested elections in 2018 - had suspended them as lawmakers of Parliament’s lower house. Following the Supreme Court (SC)’s ruling, which earlier in March had declared the 2018 post-election merger of the now-defunct Nepal Communist Party (NCP) void ab initio [see AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2], the four lawmakers had been siding with the prime minister’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML), and had also been accepted as members of the party’s Central Committee. [The Indian Express] [The Himalayan Times]

According to Article 78 (1) of the Constitution, the prime minister may appoint a person who is not a member of the federal parliament as a cabinet minister. However, such a person is required to obtain membership of parliament within six months of the oath-taking. Based on this constitutional provision, the four lawmakers can remain in the Oli-led Cabinet until October. The current cabinet has 22 ministers – a third of which is not a member of the federal parliament. [The Kathmandu Post]

Pakistan: New law punishes people ‘disrespecting’ armed forces

(lm) In what is considered by many the latest attempt to muzzle criticism of the country’s powerful military, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government is all set to pass draft changes to the Pakistani criminal law that recommend a jail term of up to two years or a fine or both for those found guilty of "intentionally ridiculing” the Pakistani military. [Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project]

The proposed legislation was adopted April 7 by the Committee on Interior of Parliament’s lower house, where Prime Minister Khan’s ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, along with a few of its smaller allies has a simple majority. To become law, the proposed bill has to pass the Senate or upper house, where the government will need the support of the opposition to pass the legislation. [Gandhara]

There is a good case to believe that the draft bill has been pushed by the country’s military establishment, which has, in recent months, come under constant public criticism by Pakistan’s opposition parties. Last year, the former Prime Minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Nawaz Sharif, for the first time openly offered a direct attack on the military establishment [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]

Pakistan: Nationwide protests after Islamist leader’s arrest

(lm) Protests have erupted in several cities across Pakistan after police on April 12 arrested Saad Rizvi, leader of an influential far-right Islamist party known for holding mass demonstrations over the issue of perceived blasphemy. Police used tear gas and water cannon on thousand of protesters who blocked streets and intersections in Lahore, the country’s second biggest city. [Al Jazeera] [South China Morning Post]

Saad Rizvi, leader of the Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) party was arrested to “maintain law and order” after he had been trying to organize a march on the capital, Islamabad, on April 20 to demand the expulsion of the French ambassador. [Deutsche Welle]

Founded by deceased firebrand cleric Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the TLP party has for years been mass demonstrations across the country calling for all “blasphemers” to be killed. The party rose to further prominence after the country’s 2018 general election, when it secured the fourth-highest share of the popular vote for parliamentary seats. 

Anti-French sentiment has been simmering for months in Pakistan since the government of President Emmanuel Macron expressed support for a French satirical weekly’s right to republish cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad - deemed blasphemous by many Muslims. In Pakistan, publishing such images could be a criminal offense on charges of blasphemy, the concept of having insulted a religion or a deity.

In November last year hundreds of supporters of Pakistan’s main Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, took to the street after Macron had eulogized a French teacher who was decapitated by an Islamist radical for using cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad in a class on freedom of expression [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Vaccine management

(nd) So far, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused 24 deaths in Cambodia. As citizens are seemingly skeptical about vaccines, the government announced to answer a refusal of vaccination with a job dismissal. This practically applies a duty to get a vaccine for soldiers and other civil servants. Prime Minister Hun Sen highlighted they were still voluntary but would be mandatory in the future, especially pointing to the most densely populated and worst-hit Phnom Penh and Kandal province. Additionally, the Labor Ministry pointed to a possible dismissal for garment workers if they refuse to be vaccinated.

It remained open whether it was just an effort to make more people get a vaccine or an actual policy. The vaccination campaign started in February, with 600,970 people having volunteered, of which 566,420 have been vaccinated, with 142,400 having received their second dose according to the Ministry of Health. The Ministry of Defense, which is co-responsible, has vaccinated 190,106 people with the first dose and 112,723 with a second dose. The government is fearing a spike in cases, most significantly due to Khmer New Year, which is why the government imposed a two-week travel ban. The Ministry of Health has also developed plans to treat patients at home, due to the underfunded healthcare system.

The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) is ruling the de-facto one party state, after the largest opposition party was forcibly dissolved in 2017 and sweepingly winning the 2018 general election. Critics asserted that rather than government pressure, people should be informed better about the vaccinations and risks. Human rights groups have often emphasized how CPP has also used the pandemic to greatly expand its authority over society. [See also AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1]

It also remains to be seen whether the government can secure enough vaccines to achieve its inoculation goal. So far, Cambodia was gifted 1.3 million doses of the Chinese Sinopharm, bought 1.5 million doses of the Chinese Sinovac and received 324,000 doses from Covax, while expecting another 4 million Sinovac vaccines for $40 million. [Asia Times]

Cambodia: Backlash against artist for photo editing

(nd) Cambodia condemned the photo-editing of pictures taken from genocide victims. An Irish artist digitally added color and smiles to black and white pictures of victims, which prompted a backlash. Cambodia's Ministry of Culture and Fine Arts called the editing to "seriously affect the dignity of the victims", urged to remove the pictures and considered legal action in case of non-compliance. Between 1975 and 1979, an estimated 2 million people were killed by the ultra-Maoist Khmer Rouge regime, through starvation, forced labor, torture and mass executions. [Channel News Asia]

Indonesia: More ambitious goal for sovereign wealth fund

(nd) President Joko Widodo announced the goal to rise US$200 billion for Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund, known as Indonesia Investment Authority, in the next two to three years. His earlier target was US$100 billion, and initially US$15 billion. The fund received pledges from the United Arab Emirates, Japan, the US and Canada. It allows investors to chose to put money in various industries, from health care and tourism, to technology and the development of a new national capital city planned on the island of Kalimantan. The fund forms part of Indonesia’s long-term, infrastructure-driven development plan. As one of the world’s largest nickel exporter, Indonesia is set to become a hub for battery making, often in joint ventures with Chinese companies, and ongoing talks with Tesla. Widodo was also promoting the country’s hydropower potential, with projects on the Kayan River in Kalimantan and the Mamberamo River in Papua. Widodo also supports a move to expand the mandate of Bank Indonesia, the country's central bank, for it to not only manage the currency, but also sustainable economic growth and job creation, which to some observers might jeopardize the bank’s independence. [South China Morning Post]

Laos: Chinese Casino King to expand the empire out of the Golden Triangle SEZ

(py) Zhao Wei, the chairman of the King Romans Group, which since 2007 has been operating the tourism and gambling enclave in northern Laos, the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone (GTSEZ), is now exploring to expand his business out of the triangle. Zhao has recently visited Saravan in southern Laos to meet and discuss the possibility of developing agricultural and tourism development projects with the governor. Besides, Zhao’s company is also conducting a feasibility study in Pek district in northern Laos near the 3000-year-old UNESCO plain of jars. As of now, no concession agreement has been made. The company plans to build a traditional medicine factory, a golf course and a tourist attraction on the 150-hectare land. Scholars said Zhao’s growing presence all over Laos epitomizes the closer ties between Laos and China and the consequent changing physical and economic landscape in the country. In the same vein, the casino magnate also stroked a deal to build a $50 million port on a loosely patrolled area of Mekong upstream of the GTSEZ, which expert said could facilitate greater commercial activity, both legal and illegal, in Laos. In 2018, the US Treasury Department introduced sanctions on Zhao for engagements in criminal activities such as drug, human and wildlife trafficking, money laundering and bribery, which are believed to be committed under the Kings Romans Casino. 

Recently, Laos has been very successful in attracting foreign direct investment and aids. During the talks between Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Prime Minister of Laos, Phankham Viphavanh, Suga confirmed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two by pledging about 1.8 million USD to set up cold chain facilities to store Covid-19 vaccines in Laos and agreeing to support the improvements of international airports. [The Diplomat] [Radio Free Asia] [The Laotian Times]

Laos: Christian leader freed from prison

(nd) After serving his term for over a year in prison, Lao Pastor Sithon Thippavong, was released on Friday. He was convicted over charges of “disrupting unity” and “creating disorder,” for organizing religious services without authorities’ permission. Upon his arrest, he refused to sign a document renouncing his Christian faith.

According to the Law on the Evangelical Church, Lao Christians are allowed to conduct services and preach throughout the country and to maintain contacts with believers in other countries, which in practice only works in the capital and other larger cities, while in rural areas, Christians are subject to disrespect and discrimination. Despite some progress observed in 2019, such cases of abuse in rural areas remain common, according to a report by the bipartisan U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) in May 2020. [Radio Free Asia]

Malaysia: Najib to face bankruptcy charges

(nd) Following his file for appeal, former Prime Minister Najib Razak faces bankruptcy for allegedly not paying U.S. $421 million in taxes and penalties. If declared bankrupt, he would lose his parliamentary seat and could not contest in elections again. Najib suggested the allegation are in connection with the United Malays National Organization’s (UMNO) decision to run on its own in the next elections. Najib is the former president of UMNO, which holds the majority of parliamentary seats. The case is scheduled to be heard May 5. [Benar News]

Myanmar: State of Freedom of the Press

(lf) Since the beginning of the coup at least 60 members of the press have been arrested by the military, three journalists are currently facing trial after being arrested in late February for covering the anti-military protests. Some journalists have gone missing, and families have been struggling to locate their family members as prisons have been closed to the public. The journalists are charged under Article 505 (a) which prohibits the spread of information that may hinder the military to fulfil their duty. The military has started a severe crackdown on the press as well as to significantly limit access to the internet. The newspaper Mizzima has had their licence revoked by the government, while simultaneously one of the co-founders has been arrested. These tactics form part of a larger campaign to keep the anti-military protests under control. [Asia Times 1], [Asia Times 2]

Myanmar: Economic situation worsening due to coup

(lf) Since the coup on February 1, military controls and restrictions on Myanmar’s major transportation roadways have disrupted the flow of food, as well as other goods in Myanmar’s major metropolitan areas. In addition, reports of military and security forces confiscating cargo along the routes, as well as cash from the drivers have been made. Plundering seems to have become a by-product of military rule. The situation has caused many to stop transporting goods altogether. 

This has worsened the already dire economic situation of Myanmar as a whole, particularly in Yangon. Food shortages have already occurred due to the pandemic, but as the city is dependent on food deliveries from outside, this new development has aggravated the situation. In addition, to the food shortage, the prices have tripled. [Radio Free Asia]

Striking workers and the emerging parallel government comprised of National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmakers, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw’s (CRPH) move to stop collection of electricity bills have disturbed the military’s control of the power grid, resulting in electricity shortages and blackouts. Combined with an investor reluctance due to international sanctions, this situation could result in a nationwide power blackout, hurting particularly the manufacturing and garment industries. Aung San Suu Kyi’s administration was working against the power gap, resulting from misrule, issuing tenders in 2019 for five electricity generation projects, as well as several solar energy projects, which were all won by Chinese companies. In 2019, the World Bank expected the country’s power demand to increase by 15% every year. [Asia Times]

With smedicl workers striking, nearly all testing and treatment for Covid-19 has stopped, prompting the UN’s acting resident country coordinator, to comment, Myanmar’s health system “has practically collapsed”. [The News Lens]

Myanmar’s military to use Chinese drones

(lf) According to the British intelligence magazine Jane International Defence Review, Myanmar’s Airforce seems to have been using Chinese drones to monitor and potentially intimidate protestors. The drones, that had been manufactured by the Chinese state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Cooperation had been delivered to Myanmar between 2013 and 2015. It is assumed that the Tatmadaw owns around 10 to 12 drones. The delivery had been made with the intention of monitoring the ongoing insurgency movements in Myanmar’s border region. However, until now there has been only one confirmed sighting of the drones in 2016. [Radio Free Asia]

Myanmar: Protestors to take up arms in Northwest 

(lf) While so far, the demonstrations across the country have been largely peaceful in response to which the Tatmadaw answered with extreme violence, this weekend picked up homemade guns, knives and bombs in North-western Myanmar. The military has moved more troops into the area of Kalay, which resulted in the death of eleven protesters. The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) announced that they could not stop people from protecting themselves against the Tatmadaw and taking up arms. Since the coup on February 1, over 600 protestors have been killed. Concerns over a civil war in the country remain high. 

The area is not new to confrontations between the Tatmadaw and insurgency groups. With its closeness to the Indian border, the area offers easy movement for fighters across the border. [Reuters] [Nikkei Asia]

Meanwhile, a military tribunal in Myanmar has sentenced 19 people to death for killing a member of the military and wounding another. Reportedly, this is the junta's first use of the death penalty since declaring martial law last month. [Nikkei Asia]

Committee to present proof of human rights violations to ICJ

(lf) The Committee for Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), a Burmese government in exile,  has announced that it has gathered 180,000 pieces of evidence for rights abuses by the Tatmadaw and the military junta against its own people. The evidence has been gathered in hope of pressing charges against the high-ranking generals at the International Criminal Court (ICC). There are concerns that the evidence, while they in the future may lead to justice, might complicate the dialogue between the generals and the protestors. [The Diplomat]

Philippines: Police Chief, officers dismissed over death of alleged curfew violator

(lp) Two police officers of General Trias City in the Province of Cavite were dismissed because they abusively forced curfew violators to do excessive physical exercise as punishment, which killed a local resident. The chief of police Lt. Col. Mario Solero was dismissed for allegedly trying to cover up this abuse of power. Earlier, he had denied any abuse by the local police. [Inquirer]

Meanwhile, the Philippine National Police (PNP) is preparing a case of homicide against two security officers who beat Ernanie Jimenez to death for violating curfew in Calamba, Laguna. [Manila Bulletin]

Philippines: Senate employees’ union red-tagged as communist

(lp) The National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) chief Alex Monteagudo accused Senate employees’ union SENADO of being infiltrated by supporters of the Communist Party of the Philippines, its armed wing New People’s Army, and political arm National Democratic Front of the Philippines (CPP-NPA-NDF). The Senate President Vicente Sotto III belied this accusation. Previously, the Anti-Terrorism Act proponent Sotto opposed the Bill. No. 2121 criminalizing red-tagging. But after being red-tagged himself, Sotto is now inclined to support the bill.

‘Red-tagging’ refers to the blacklisting or vilification of groups or individuals as state enemies (terrorist and/or communist), regardless of their actual political beliefs, group affiliations, or actions. [Manila Bulletin]

Singapore: Prime Minister-designate stepped aside 

(py) The succession line for the country’s leader was disrupted after Singapore’s Prime Minister-designate, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, announced that he would step aside, stating that a younger person should be the next prime minister. If PM Lee is on leave, senior minister Teo Chee Hean will be appointed Acting prime minister. This interim arrangement would be in place until the new 4G (the fourth generation of the People’s Action Party, PAP) leader is chosen. Heng’s resignation exposed internal leadership challenges of the PAP. Part of this is a reluctance to hand over power to someone outside the Lee family as well as an ongoing family feud. This in turn led to dissatisfaction among the party’s grassroots, resulting in Tan Cheng Bock’s Progress Singapore Party (PSP) challenging the PAP in the 2020 election. The lack of clear leadership is an added challenge to the repercussions of the pandemic, like an economic contraction.

Regarding international affairs, Singapore and the US representatives have discussed ways to reopen air travel and agree on the use of vaccination certificates. As both parties to the Paris agreement, the two Transport ministers will also collaborate on climate action in transportation, including alternative fuels, electrification, technology for more efficiency. Lastly, Singapore was also the first RCEP member to ratify the agreement, which the ministry of Trade and Industry believed the ratification had shown the nation’s strong commitment to the economic bloc. Singapore signifying its economic commitment to the bloc might have been its move to strike a deal to solve disputes with its neighboring countries. Scholars said that a healthy state of bilateral relations between Singapore and Indonesia should facilitate the negotiations regarding the rights to exercise militarily in the Indonesian archipelagic water, which has been a perennial problem for the two nations. Singapore still conducts military exercises in the disputed area even without the expired DCA (Defense Cooperation agreement). An expert said the current Indonesian President enjoys strong support in the parliament and thus should be able to realize a framework for the said problems.   [Voice of America] [Channel News Asia 1] [Channel News Asia 2] [Channel News Asia 3] [South China Morning Post] [The Strait Times] [East Asia Forum] [East Asia Forum]

Singapore: Lee to urge government to prepare moves to allow Muslim headwear for nurses 

(nd) Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the government should prepare to allow Muslim nurses to wear the tudung with their uniform, referring to changed social and work settings. The comments came after a closed-door meeting with the Malay Muslim community and religious leaders, the first such meeting since 2014, when the issue was raised for the first time. Lee urged the government to “prepare the ground”, meaning to inform and explain to the people in order to gain acceptance of the move. Adding to this, the Minister of Muslim Affairs emphasized that the issue involved racial and religious sensitivities, and therefore needs to be approached candidly. Mufti Dr Nazirudin Mohd Nasir agreed and warned any move not to undermine Singapore's social cohesion. [Channel News Asia]

Thailand: Investigations after clashes at protests

(nd) Following rallies on Saturday, police are investigating red shirt and Ratsadon protesters due to alleged violation of health safety measures and breach of the emergency decree. Organized by different groups for various reasons, five groups of protesters in total held rallies on Saturday.

Parallelly, a report by the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) on the human rights situation with relation to the mass protests found that both sides exercised restraint, while the use of high-pressure water jets mixed with chemicals against the youth-led protesters was described as an overreaction. Overall, the report found, the police did not interfere with freedom of protesters, complying with legal procedure and not requiring prior permission for protests. Concerns were raised about an increase in court orders by the Digital Economy and Society Ministry to suspend or erase information online. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Suggestions for a partial charter change

(nd) Following a number of MPs taking the stand an amendment of the entire constitution was unconstitutional, parties submitted their ideas for a partial charter change.

Opposition party Pheu Thai urged the public to pressure the government and the Senate to push through the stalled referendum bill, for it does not dispose of a majority. An extraordinary parliament session to deliberate the bill, which also proposed changes to Section 256 of the Constitution in order to set up a charter drafting assembly, has been postponed due to a Covid-19 outbreak, which Pheu Thai members viewed as a move to hold on to power. The meeting was scheduled for April 7-8. [Bangkok Post 1] The bill sponsored by the government passed the first reading in December, the second reading was adjourned in March. A recent Constitutional Court ruling said replacing the charter requires a referendum before and after the charter is rewritten. [Bangkok Post 2]

In their planned amendment bid, the Progressive Movement wants to abolish the Senate, get rid of the Constitutional Court and independent agencies, cancel the 20-year national strategy, and abolish laws and regulations that absolved the 2014 military coup. 50,000 names are needed to mount an amendment bid, still the movement aims to collect a million in order to have leverage against the Senate.

In its bid, the Democrat Party plans to remove the Senate's power to select a prime minister, let parliament, not political parties, nominate prime ministerial candidates, decentralize power to local authorities, limit the ability of House panels to summon people to testify, and sort out the electoral system. [Bangkok Post 3]

MPs of Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) MPs submitted a draft amendment to the charter signed by 110 MPs, dealing with five points and 13 sections of the constitution. The proposal wants to expand the rights and freedom of citizens, change the election system to have two ballots in a general election, to replace Section 144 of the 2017 charter with parts of Section 168 of the 2004 charter, to revise Section 185 to allow MPs and senators to contact government agencies to assist people, and to revise Section 270 in order to enable MPs and senators to follow up on, make suggestions about, and expedite national reform plans. [Bangkok Post 4]

Thailand: Protester granted bail on Section 112 charges

(nd) Patiwat Saraiyaem, one of a number of key protesters held in prison inter alia on charges of lese majeste, was granted bail, along with two other detainees. The folk singer pledged to not breach Section 112 in the Criminal Code and stay away from political rallies. Other protest figures who were refused bail signed an intention to withdraw their lawyer from their Section 112 trial, arguing a lack of due fairness in this case made the lawyer's role redundant. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Further arrests after Sunday rally

(nd) Following Sunday’s protests, police summoned two leaders and 26 other people, on charges including lese majeste. Among them is red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan, whose speech from Sunday is being scrutinized for a violation of Section 112. The complaint against Jatuporn was filed by an adviser to the House Committee on Law on Tuesday.

The protesters were demanding Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's resignation; with all public gatherings considered unlawful under the emergency decree. [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2] 

Vietnam: Pham Minh Chinh inaugurated as new Prime Minister

(lm) Vietnam’s National Assembly on April 5 confirmed the nomination of Pham Minh Chinh as the country’s next prime minister, replacing hitherto Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc, who was confirmed as the country's new president, a predominantly ceremonial role. [South China Morning Post]

Chinh’s nomination by Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party (VCP) came as surprise the prevailing norm was that the senior deputy prime minister with responsibility for the economy – Vuong Dinh Hue in this case –replace a retiring prime minister. Chinh, a former head of the party’s powerful and influential Central Organization Commission, on the other hand, lacks experience in the government bureaucracy. [Channel NewsAsia]

Chinh’s confirmation followed the twice-a-decade national congress of Vietnam’s Communist Party, held this year in January, when the appointments of Vietnam’s top four leadership posts - secretary general, state president, prime minister, and chair of the National Assembly – were determined for the coming five-year term. [AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]

His promotion is widely considered as part of a “grand compromise” between the two wings o the VCP, which also included the come-back by General Secretary and President Nguyễn Phú Trọng, who was able to muster support for a second exemption from the retirement age and his unprecedented retention for a third term as party leader.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US relations: Biden’s massive domestic infrastructure, Strategic Competition Act of 2021 to counter Beijing’s challenges

(dql/zh) Promoting his 2.3 trillion USD infrastructure plan, President Joe Biden stressed that the plan – besides creating millions good-paying jobs, expanding the economy, making the US more competitive around the world, and promoting US national security interests – will put the US “in a position to win the global competition with China in the upcoming years.” Biden’s infrastructure plan provides spending in green energy projects, expanded high-speed broadband and electric vehicles as well as traditional infrastructure projects, including transportation, home care services, manufacturing, housing, water and public schools. [AP News][South China Morning Post 1]

In a separate development, leaders of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee have introduced the Strategic Competition Act of 2021 to “address issues involving the People’s Republic of China,” and to “mobilize all US strategic, economic, and diplomatic tools for an Indo-Pacific strategy” to confront challenges China poses. Among others, the bill calls for “ramped-up military financing in the so-called Indo-Pacific, advancement of China-focused sanctions, containment incentives in Asia's leading multilateral forums, scrutiny of Chinese enterprises, and multi-million-dollar funds for countering Beijing's infrastructure connectivity initiatives.” [Senate, USA] [South China Morning Post 2] [CGTN]

Meanwhile, a US bipartisan group of 14 House lawmakers has argued that there is a need for “increased prudence and scrutiny” in approving combatant commanders’ requests for additional forces that fall outside of the Global Force Management Allocation Plan, a Pentagon blueprint that allocates forces to the commands, warning the approval would hinder the long-term efforts to counter China and Russia. The plea comes as the Pentagon weighs how best to distribute its resources to counter China and Russia with a budget that, while sizable, is likely to remain largely flat. [Politico]

For plans of the Pentagon for a tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China, see [The Arab Weekly].

China urges US to lift Iran sanctions to pave way for reviving Iran deal 

(zh) China has called on the US to “immediately” lift its “illicit sanction” on Iran during talks in Vienna last week Iran, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and the US aimed a road map to bring the US back to the Iran deal and Iran back to compliance with the deal’s restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program. Chinese representative Wang Qun said China supported the Joint Commission, which comprises the signatories to the Iran deal, to initiate talks to address the lifting of sanctions, adding Beijing is willing to work with the US to restore the Iran deal as soon as possible. [Xinhua]

Curbing Iran’s nuclear program has been identified as a potential area where both Washington and Beijing can cooperate. Last week, the US expressed its willingness to “narrow tactical alignment” with China on the Iran issue. China’s call for lifting Iran sanctions comes also after China’s foreign minister Wang Yi signed a 25-year agreement that exchanges China's 400 billion USD investment for Iran’s oil supply at the end of last month. [AiR No.14, April/2021, 1] [AiR No.13, March/2021, 5]. 

Endangering the success of the talks which are expected to drag over weeks, Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was hit by an attack which destroyed a significant amount of Iran’s uranium enrichment capability. While Iran blamed Israel for the attack, the Biden administration declared that it was not involved, while neither praising nor condemning the attack. [Egypt Independent]

Cross-Strait relations: Tensions flare up at multiple fronts 

(zh) Taiwan’s Executive Yuan is considering amendments to the National Security Act and the Trade Secret Act to prevent China’s commercial espionage and the poaching of core technologies, particularly the semiconductor and information technology. Taiwan prohibits Chinese companies from doing business or recruiting locally without prior approval, but some firms conceal their Chinese ownership to illegally recruit workers. [Taipei Times 1]

The plan to amend those law comes at a time when Taiwan’s government has become increasingly wary of the risk of the “red supply chain”, especially amid the ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington, worrying the island’s chip workers become targets for China’s poaching in the semiconductor industry. [AiR No.14, April/2021, 1]

China, meanwhile, continues its military muscle flexing, with 25 PLA planes flying through Taiwan's air defense zone (ADIZ), including 14 J-16 fighter jets, four J-10 fighter jets, four H-6K bombers, two anti-submarine warfare planes and an airborne early warning and control plane on Monday. In an earlier move last week, 15 of China’s military aircraft, including 12 fighter jets, had flown into the southwestern part of the island's ADIZ. The flights were linked to maneuvers of China's aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escorts in the west and east of Taiwan on Monday last week, an exercise of which China said that it will be conducted regularly [CNN] [Taiwan News 1] [CNN] [Taipei Times 2]

Referring to the increased number of incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and to US warnings of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan in the near future, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu reassured that Taiwan is willing to fight the war if needed and the island would "defend ourselves to the very last day," adding that Taiwan ready to build up its military might and allocate more funds for defense. [Guardian 1] [Taiwan News 2]

China’s military, on its side, confirmed it has tracked the US Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain sailing through the Taiwan Strait. The US has claimed the move as a routine exercise of freedom of navigation, whereas China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command called it a tactic to “manipulate” the cross-Strait situation and China is “firmly opposed to that”. [South China Morning Post]

Finally, Taiwan has accused China of malign "vaccine diplomacy" in Paraguay – one of 15 countries which have formal relations with Taiwan – after the Paraguayan government declined China’s offer of millions of vaccine doses in exchange for cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan. China has denied the efforts to entice Paraguay with vaccines. To counter China's mounting pressure in Central and South America where Taiwan has five allies, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said Taiwan is working with like-minded countries including the Quad countries Japan, the US, and India to provide vaccine to Paraguay, adding that India has already shipped 100,000 doses to Paraguay and there would be another 100,000. [BBC][Bloomberg][South China Morning Post]

However, India denied Taiwan’s reported role in the shipment of Indian-made vaccines to Paraguay, saying the delivery was made in response to Paraguay's request. [Hindustan Times]

In a separate move, India's foreign ministry last week posted a message on Twitter to express condolences over more than 50 deaths in Taiwan's most serious train crash in decades. It is probably the first time the Ministry posted online about Taiwan, indicating New Delhi's subtle foreign policy shift amid its ongoing boundary dispute with Beijing and engagement in the Quad to counter China. As Taiwan’s foreign policy shifts from US-centric to South Asia-focused, an opinion piece in  [Taipei Times] suggests that New Delhi cooperate with countries such as the US, Japan, and Singapore to devise a consistent Taiwan policy and “take a lead in facilitating Taiwan’s inclusion,” into the evolving regional order of the Indo-Pacific. 

US-Taiwan relations: New guidelines to enhance engagement between government officials 

(zh) The US State Department has announced new guidelines which liberalizes existing guidance on contact with Taiwan to “encourage” engagement between government officials of both sides, regular working-level meetings with their Taiwanese counterparts in the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in New York, Taiwan’s de-facto embassy in the US. [US Department of State] [South China Morning Post] 

In response, China’s Foreign Ministry warned the US “not to play with fire” on Taiwan issues and urged the US to “immediately stop any form of US-Taiwan official contacts, cautiously and appropriately handle the matter, and not send wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces so as not to subversively influence and damage Sino-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” [Aljazeera]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, warned Beijing that “it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change that status quo by force,” while reaffirming the US’ “serious commitment to Taiwan being able to defend itself,” and to “peace and security in the western Pacific.” [The Guardian]

For reasons why China is unlikely to seize Taiwan by force, see Kris Osborn in [The National Interest] who argues that even if China would be successful in taking over Taiwan, “given the sustained U.S. presence in the region and forward positioning of strike assets nearby,” it would be impossible for China “to manage to secure the island before a large counterattack was possible.”

China warns Australia of sanctions over Xinjiang

(zh) China's ambassador to Australia Cheng Jingye has warned Beijing would respond "in kind" if Canberra follows other countries in imposing sanctions over human rights abuses in Xinjiang in a media event at his official residence in Canberra, saying people should not have the illusion that "China would swallow the bitter pill". The warning was one of Beijing's attempts to push back the international criticism over its action against Uyghurs in Xinjiang. [Guardian 1]

The relations between the two countries have fallen to a low point over trade restrictions China has imposed in response to Australia’s criticism of human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and to Canberra’s call for an independent investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. Last month, Beijing slapped anti-dumping duties on Australia’s wine imports . [AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1] In a latest development, Australia’s Trade Minister Dan Tehan urged the country should engage with the Indo-Pacific region, telling the country’s businesses to “step up to the plate” in repairing ties with China when launching the final joint report by Asia Society Australia and the Business Council of Australia. The [report] suggests the government adopt a “Team Australia” approach and build stronger engagement with Asian countries including Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Korea, and India. [South China Morning Post] [Asia Society]

In line with Tehan’s call, Monash University in Melbourne, meanwhile, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Indonesian government to diversify itself from reliance on Chinese students as China had sent warning of “serious threat” in studying in Australia [see AiR No.6, February/2021, 2]. Under the MoU, Monash University is granted the license to establish a campus in Indonesia with an aim to recruit thousands of postgraduate students[Guardian 2]

Turkey summons China’s ambassador over criticism of crackdown on Uyghurs

(zh) Turkey has summoned China's ambassador Liu Shaobin after his office denounced two Turkish politicians over their criticism of Beijing's action against Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The Chinese embassy on Twitter has "resolutely opposed and strongly condemned any challenge by any person or power to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity", which was interpreted as threats to Good Party leader Meral Aksener and Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas for their Twitter posts that commemorate the killing of Uyghurs by Chinese forces during an uprising  in April 1990, calling it a “massacre.” [Euronews][South China Morning Post]

The Uyghur communities in Turkey have repeatedly expressed its concerns over China’s crackdown in Xinjiang. Last month, during the visit of his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has conveyed Ankara’s “sensitivity and thoughts” about Uyghurs Muslims and about 1000 people had gathered in Istanbul to protests Beijing’s treatment in Xinjiang [see AiR No.13, March/2021, 5].

Xi signals Merkel unease over current statues of Sino-EU relations 

(zh) Signaling unease over looming closer EU-US relations under the Biden administration, Chinese President Xi Jinping in a phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he saw “various challenges” in Sino-EU relations, but hoped the EU to “independently” make correct judgments and see China’s rise as an opportunity. Xi also added China is willing to promote “fair and reasonable distribution” of Covid-19 vaccines and opposes vaccine nationalism, stressing the importance to “exclude external interference” on both sides. In response, Merkel reaffirmed that the EU would maintain its autonomy on foreign policy, while stressing the “importance of dialogue on the full range of ties, including issues on which there are different opinions.” [Reuters][South China Morning Post]

The phone call comes at a time of strained relations between the EU and China. Last month, the EU along with the UK, US, and Canada had imposed sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights concerns in Xinjiang, in response to which China later slapped tit-for-tat sanctions on four entities and 10 Europeans including politicians and scholars [see AiR No.12, March/2021, 4]. EU’s concerns over China’s human rights issue poses uncertainty on the EU-China investment deal that currently awaits the EU Parliament’s ratification.

Mixed reactions on Japan's decision to release contaminated water into the sea

(dql) Japan has decided to gradually release tons of treated radioactive wastewater from the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the ocean over the next two years. [Japan Times]

While the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency expressed approval of the decision, calling it “in accordance with globally accepted nuclear safety standards” and “in line with international practice,” neighboring China, South Korea and Taiwan responded with strong opposition. Beijing decried the decision as “extremely irresponsible” and urged Tokyo to reverse the decision, adding that it “reserve[s] the right to respond further.” Similarly, South Korea expressed “strong regret,” and demanded “specific measures from Japan to ensure the safety of our people and prevent damage to the marine environment.” Taiwan also raised concerns and demanded that Tokyo complies with the terms of its memorandum of understanding with Taipei on nuclear energy information exchange, requiring it to provide information about dilution and expected flow direction before discharging the waste. [New York Times] [South China Morning Post] [Yonhap] [Taipei Times]

Japan-Germany relations: Foreign and Defense Ministers agree on expansion of military cooperation

(dql) In the first “2 plus 2” meeting between Japan and Germany, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi held online talks with their German counterparts Heiko Maas and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. The Ministers agreed to expand their countries’ military cooperation and to step up military equipment and technology transfers based on intelligence sharing pact signed in March. Both sides also discussed China’s territorial claims in the East and South China seas and shared “grave concern” over the situation in Hong Kong and the human rights conditions in Xinjiang region. Japan, furthermore, proposed conducting a joint naval exercise when a German frigate visits Asia later this year, after German government officials last month said that a German frigate would set sail for Asia in August and, on its way back would become the first German warship to cross the South China Sea since 2002. [ABC News] [Reuters]

In September last year, Germany adopted its policy guidelines for the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a “new page” in the country’s foreign policy and international relations.

Japan already holds “2 plus 2” talks with two other European powers, France and the UK. The security talks with Germany provide Japan an opportunity to further bolster its position vis-à-vis China with the European Union’s largest economy.

South Korea-US relations: Military cost sharing deal formally concluded

(dql) Ending years of contentious negotiations under former US President Donald Trump, the Biden administration and the South Korean government have formally signed the military cost-sharing deal. Under the 11th Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a six-years deal, Seoul agrees to proportionally adjust its share of the cost burden according to increases defense expenditures in the years 2022 to 2025, with an estimated rise by 6.1% per year. For 2021, Seoul will also pay nearly 14% more while there will be increase for 2020 compared to 2019.

The previous SMA expired in 2019. In the subsequent negotiations Trump demanded a 400% increase while Seoul offered an increase of 13%. [NK News]

South Korea-Iran relations: Tehran releases seized South Korean tanker and its captain

(dql) Iran has released a South Korean-flagged tanker and its captain detained in Iran in January. Iran seized the tanker near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, accusing it of violating pollution rules. Apart from the captain, the 20 crew members were set free in February.

The seizure came amid tensions over the freezing of Iranian funds in South Korean banks under US sanctions leading to accusations against Tehran of using seizure as bargaining chip. Tehran has denied those claims but the release of the ship and the captain comes at a time when Seoul and Tehran have reportedly made progress in unlocking the funds in closed-door talks. [AP News]

Currently, South Korean Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun is in Iran for talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and other government officials to improve bilateral ties. The first trip to Iran by a South Korean prime minister in 44 years, it is believed that the issue of frozen assets of at least 7 billion USD Iranian money features high in the agenda. [Tehran Times]

South Korea-Germany relations: Foreign Minister agree on joint peace efforts on Korean peninsula

(dql) South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong last Friday led a phone talk with his German counterpart Heiko Maas to discuss their countries’ bilateral relations as well as South Korea’s efforts to achieve lasting peace on the Korean peninsula, with Maas expressing Germany’s willingness to support the peace efforts. Maas added that Germany has been pushing to diversify cooperative ties with Asian countries, including South Korea. [Yonhap]

South Korea: Homegrown supersonic fighter set revealed

(dql) South Korea’s arms procurement agency announced that the country’s first homegrown supersonic fighter jet, the KF-21 Boramae, will be ready to fly with weapons aboard by 2028. Released last Friday, the fighter jet, is expected to undergo flight tests through 2026 and become combat ready by 2032.

With all tests successfully completed, South Korea will join an exclusive group of nations which have developed an advanced supersonic fighter, including the US, Russia, China, Japan, France, Sweden and a European consortium of the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Spain. [Korea Herald] [Asia Times]

A joint project between South Korea and Indonesia in which Seoul holds 80% of shares while Jakarta seeks 20%, the KF-21 is facing problems as Indonesia has not made its milestone payments after the initial tranche of 203.4 million USD. Furthermore, Jakarta has not sent back Indonesian personnel working that is involved in the project and that were withdrawn due the COVID-19 pandemic. A talk between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto failed to address this issue. [Defense World]

India-Russia defense ties deepen, even as Moscow hails ‘highest’ level of Beijing relations

(lm) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar on April 4 discussed closer military cooperation, including manufacturing of Russian military hardware in India and the peace process in Afghanistan. Lavrov was on a two-day working visit in New Delhi to lay the groundwork for the annual India-Russia Summit to be held in India later this year. [South China Morning Post]

Strikingly, Lavrov did not meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Indian media reports suggest the Indian government was unhappy that Lavrov’s trip to India was combined with one to Pakistan [see article below]. Another theory goes that Washington urged New Delhi not to have Modi meet Lavrov. 

United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry also held a brief meeting with Lavrov while both officials were in India [see article in this edition]. The official explanation was that they met by happenstance and spoke about climate change. But they may well have spoken on other issues, including the Iran nuclear deal. [Foreign Policy]

During a news conference held subsequently, both diplomats sidestepped questions on India’s planned purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which under US law can attract sanction similar to those imposed on Turkey last year [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. Jaishankar said the pending delivery would be discussed at a meeting of defense ministers later in the year. [Bloomberg]

India’s arm imports have decreased by a whopping 33 percent in the second half of the decade, as New Delhi attempts to reduce dependence on Russia. For arms exports by Moscow, which accounted for 20 percent of all exports of major arms between 2016 and 2020, dropped by 22 percent. [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]

Importantly, the Russian foreign minister also ruled out a military alliance with China, saying such a discussion was not on the table even as he described Moscow-Beijing bilateral ties as being “the highest in history at the summit level”. Speculation that Beijing and Moscow could develop a united front against NATO had emerged after Russian President Vladimir Putin last October said he would not “rule out” a possible pact with China.

But what is more, against the backdrop of India’s growing strategic convergence with the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, Lavrov’s remarks were to tacitly signal to New Delhi to stay clear from attempts by Washington to turn the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) - a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States - into an Indo-Pacific NATO. [Deccan Herald]

Meanwhile, three decades after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, Moscow has become a key player in the Afghan peace process. Russia has hosted several meetings on Afghan reconciliation in the last two years, including one last month in Moscow with Taliban leaders and senior diplomats from the United States, China and Pakistan - but not India. On his most recent trip, Lavrov—accompanied to New Delhi by the Russian special envoy for Afghanistan—did call for a prominent Indian role in the peace process. [Tolo News]

The two sides also discussed vaccine cooperation, as New Delhi is set to clear the Russia-made Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine for emergency use, which will make available a third vaccine option for the South Asian nation. [Anadolu Agency]

Russian foreign minister on two-day visit in Pakistan

(lm) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Pakistan last week - the first visit there by a Russian foreign minister in nine years – as emerging strategic realities have led to a significant improvement in otherwise strained and mistrustful relations between Moscow and Islamabad. Lavrov’s talks with his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi resulted in pledges to increase the frequency of joint military drills and maritime exercises to fight terrorism and piracy. [Voice of America]

Afghanistan topped the agenda for Lavrov in Islamabad, which - unlike New Delhi - is heavily involved in the peace process due to its close ties to the Taliban and does not oppose Pakistan’s ideal endgame: a future government with a role for the Taliban. [Modern Diplomacy]

In Islamabad, Lavrov articulated shared interests in identifying conditions that reduce conflict, including the “establishment of inclusive power structures.” This was likely a reference to an unelected interim government to oversee the peace process, an idea rejected by Kabul and opposed by New Delhi. [MoFA of the Russian Federation]

Energy was another important topic. This summer, a Russian consortium will begin construction on the 1,100-kilometers North-South natural gas pipeline north from Port Qasim in southern Pakistan to the eastern city of Lahore. Russian support for Pakistan’s energy sector, which includes new plans to invest $14 billion in gas infrastructure, can be expected to enhance Moscow’s influence in the country, one of the world’s fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) import markets [see AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1]. [Foreign Policy]

United States pushes India on net zero target ahead of global summit

(lm) United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry last week met with his Indian counterpart Prakash Javadekar and officials from the ministries of energy and foreign affairs to push New Delhi to boost its climate ambitions. Kerry’s visit was the second official engagement between Washington and New Delhi since US President Joe Biden assumed office in January, after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit last month [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. [Bloomberg] [The Straits Times]

Kerry’s three-day working visit comes ahead of a virtual “Leaders Summit on Climate” from 40 nations organized by President Biden later this month. Aimed at galvanizing efforts to commit to more ambitious climate change mitigation targets, the Summit is considered a key milestone on the road to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow. The US climate envoy also visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bangladesh. [The White House]

Kerry has been calling for 20 countries that account for 81 percent of global emissions — including India, the world’s third biggest emitter behind the US and China — to take the lead in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The aim is to achieve net-zero emissions by or before 2050 in the pursuit of the Paris Agreement goals.

New Delhi has been facing mounting diplomatic pressure to set its own net zero target ahead of the COP26 climate talks, but is unlikely to do so, according to recent reporting. New Delhi takes the view that its per capita emissions are still only an eighth of those of the United States and less than a third of China's, even as it tries to bridge a development gap. [Reuters] [The Print]

US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry discusses climate challenges in Bangladesh

United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry travelled to Bangladesh on April 9 for consultations with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and other top officials on increasing climate ambition ahead of the virtual “Leaders Summit on Climate” from 40 nations hosted by US President Biden later this month. Prior to his Dhaka visit, the US climate envoy also visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India [see article this edition].

This was the first time a senior representative of the US Biden-Harris Administration visited Bangladesh. While Kerry’s conversations initially focused on advancing climate resilience and adaptation, various other issues of cooperation between Washington and Dhaka came up for discussion. [U.S. Department of State]

Bangladeshi Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen, who appeared with Kerry, took the opportunity to ask for US help in repatriating about 1.1 million Myanmar Rohingya refugees from crowded camps in the border district of Cox’s Bazar, saying they were destroying vast areas of forests. [The Washington Post]

Pakistan to seek second IMF relief package

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan announced last week that his government will reach out to the International Monetary Found (IMF) to request a second relief package, at a time when Islamabad is forced to temper economic growth expectations following a third wave of COVID-19 infections. [Reuters] [The Economic Times]

The IMF approved a $500 million disbursement to Pakistan, the third loan tranche under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) which should eventually bring Islamabad $6 billion [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. In the wake of the resumption of the EFF, Islamabad in late March signed seven loan agreements with the World Bank with a combined value of $1.3 billion to oil its drying external financing pipelines. In addition, the government is also preparing to pitch Eurobonds worth around $2 billion to global investors to shore up foreign reserves [see AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5].

Islamabad is also likely to receive another $1 billion in debt suspension in the third phase of the World Bank’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). In April of last year, Pakistan successfully concluded rescheduling agreements with 19 bilateral creditors to concentrate its resources on fighting the pandemic [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]. The suspension period, originally set to end on December 31, 2020, has been extended through December 2021. [The Express Tribune]

An IMF note on Pakistan released last week showed that under the COVID-19 burden, the country’s economic activity worsened notably, with growth preliminarily estimated at minus 0.4 percent in the fiscal year 2020 (July to June). What is more, the report also showed that Islamabad’s gross external financing needs – which amount to $27 billion over the next twelve months - are still largely met by China: Beijing will provide $10.8 billion under the G20 DSSI initiative. [International Monetary Fund]

India protests US Navy’s transit operation through its exclusive economic zone

(lm) India protested to the United States on April 9 after a destroyer of the US Navy two days earlier conducted a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) west of the Lakshadweep Islands, inside India’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), without requesting New Delhi’s prior consent. The patrol came while United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was in New Delhi on a three-day visit to push India to take stronger action on climate change [see article in this edition]. [Anadolu Agency] [The Indian Express]

The US Navy regularly conducts FONOPs to enforce the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), using ships to sail through those areas in particular that states have attempted to close off to free navigation as defined under UNCLOS and international law and custom. New Delhi, however, takes the view that UNCLOS does not authorize other states to carry out such without consent. [The Straits Times]

While the US Navy has on multiple occasions since 1985 carried out FONOP patrols through Indian waters without seeking prior approval, this is the first time that such an operation has been conducted near the Lakshadweep Islands. Adding the fact that the recent FONOP comes at a time when US-Indian maritime collaboration is at an all-time high, it has the potential to add complications, according to observers. For the operation is a clear sign that Washington remains concerned about what it considers “excessive maritime claims” across the Indo-Pacific – including partners and allies. [The Diplomat] [South China Morning Post]

Pakistan, Iran conduct joint naval drill in Persian Gulf

(lm) Pakistan and Iran on April 6 conducted a day-long sea exercise while Pakistani ships were returning from Dubai via Qatar. Islamabad later rejected media reports that had suggested the exercise was part of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the two countries, saying the drills were unplanned and part of a “goodwill gesture”. [Anadolu Agency] [Arab News]

Last week’s exercise comes nearly two months after the Pakistan Navy conducted the seventh iteration of its multinational AMAN exercise in the port city of Karachi. Conducted biannually since its initiation in 2007, the exercise brought together naval forces from 41 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, Turkey, Philippines, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia. [AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]

The Iranian Navy, which attended the AMAN drills as an observer, has been involved in multiple military exercises in the Persian Gulf recently with the participation of regional countries, including Pakistan, Russia and China.

Indian Army chief visits Bangladesh

(lm) Indian Army Chief General Naravane completed a five-day working visit to Bangladesh on April 12, as the two countries are jointly commemorating the 50th anniversary of Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan. General Naravane’s trip follows on the heels of an official two-day Dhaka visit from Prime Minister Modi, a trip that had sparked both violent protest and enthusiasm that relations between the two neighbors will continue to grow [see AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5].

During his visit, General Naravane met with the Force Commanders of the United Nations peacekeeping operations in Mali, South Sudan and the Central African Republic. The Indian army chief also attend the closing ceremony of Exercise Shantir Ogrosena, a ten-day multinational military exercise comprising the armed forces of India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka along with observers from the United states, the United Kingdom, Turkey and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Singapore. [The Hindu]

Indian defense minister meets with Kazakhstan's counterpart in New Delhi

(lm) Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on April 9 held extensive talks with his Kazakh counterpart General Nurlan Yermekbayev with a focus on defense industrial cooperation and mutual capacity building. Yermekbayev was on an official four-day visit to New Delhi from April 7. The two ministers had last met in Moscow in September of last year, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers’ meeting. [Asian News International]

Pakistan Army reviews situation along Line of Control

(lm) Pakistan’s military commanders on April 8 attended the 240th Corps Commanders’ Conference to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the global and domestic security environment. Chaired by Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the forum paid particular attention to the situation along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border that divides the disputed Kashmir valley between India and Pakistan. [The Economic Times]

Military commanders from both sides in a rare joint statement announced earlier in February they had agreed to observe a ceasefire along the LoC and all other sectors [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. While addressing the first security dialogue in Islamabad in March, then, Qamar Javed Bajwa called for the two arch-rivals to ”bury the past” and move towards cooperation, adding that the burden was on New Delhi to create a “conducive environment”. He also said the United States had a role to play in ending regional conflicts. [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]

Sri Lanka to receive $500 million emergency loan from China as rupee hits record low

(lm) Sri Lanka secured a long-awaited $500 million loan from the China Development Bank on April 12 in a desperate bid to shore up its foreign exchange reserves. Earlier, Sri Lanka's local currency hit a record low after its foreign reserves plummeted to $4.05 billion at the end of March, the lowest in 12 years. [Channel NewsAsia] 

It is the second Chinese loan made in less than three weeks. Last month, the People's Bank of China granted a $1.54 billion currency swap to finance imports from China, affirming Beijing’s role as lender of the last resort for the South Asian island nation. [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3].

Dwindling foreign reserves, a tumbling currency and rising debt levels have dogged Sri Lanka over the last year, leading to concerns about Colombo’s ability to fulfill its foreign debt repayments [see AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2] Following the sealing of the deal, Sri Lanka’s government bonds jumped to their highest level since September of last year. [Reuters]

Nepal: Foreign investment pledges fall by more than 12 percent as commitments from India plummet

(lm) Pledges of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nepal have dropped significantly, falling almost 12.7 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of the current fiscal year. Strikingly, while investment commitment from China topped the list of foreign investment source countries, increasing slightly compared to the same period last fiscal year, the year-on-year investment from India dropped by a whopping 81 percent. [The Kathmandu Post]

Beijing has been leading FDI pledges to Nepal for the last five years, with Chinese FDI accounting for two-thirds or more than $220 million of Kathmandu’s total committed FDI during the previous fiscal year. For a comprehensive analysis of deepening Sino-Nepal relations, in particular their geopolitical implications, please consider Dhanwati Yadav’s analysis for The Jamestown Foundation.

India hosts first meeting of BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors

(lm) India on April 6 hosted the first meeting of the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the BRICS grouping of five major emerging economies through video channel. The meeting was jointly chaired by India’s Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, Nirmala Sitharaman, and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. [South Asia Monitor]

India this January assumed the rotating chairmanship of the regional organization comprising of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Under the preceding chair – Russia – 130 events at different levels were held, including several ministerial and interagency meetings and the 12th BRICS summit in November last, which was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4].

Sri Lanka strives to boost economic ties with countries in Gulf region and West Asia

(lm) Sri Lanka’s state minister for Money, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms visited the Sultanate of Oman and Qatar last week, holding meetings with top officials to explore possibilities of furthering economic cooperation. The minister’s Oman visit also coincided with the celebration of the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Colombo and Doha, which falls within this year. [Colombo Gazette] [Gulf Times]

Cambodia, China unlikely to gain from Naval Base

(nd) Despite much attention on the establishment of a Chinese naval base in Cambodia, referring to China’s expanding military presence in the region, China is not likely to gain much strategically due to Cambodia’s geographic position. In comparison to Thailand, where the average water depth is 50m, the waters off Cambodia’s coasts are only 5 to 10 meters deep, which does not permit major naval action, with practically no possibility to use submarines. Additionally, the specific location is relatively unimportant in relation to international sea lanes of communication.

Even if argued, the Ream Naval Base could be a stopover point for China to protect and control its shipping lanes in the Malacca Strait, this function is already assumed by Chinese facilities at Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands. Additionally, China stands to lose more diplomatically from it, provoking a security escalation with Thailand. Despite seemingly orbiting closer to China, Thailand has secured a $400 million arms sale with the US in 2019. Amid the rising tension in the South China Sea, Vietnam has also engaged more closely with the US on security issues and purchased US defense equipment after the lift of an arms embargo by the Obama administration in 2016. Two years later, Vietnam joined the Rim of the Pacific, the world’s largest maritime exercise.

Lastly, the advantage of a Chinese facility in Cambodia is dependent on a long-pursued infrastructure project to connect the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand and providing an alternative to the Malacca Strait, the so-called Kra Canal in southern Thailand. Due to its cost intensity, there are talks of a bridge instead of the canal, which is of no use to Chinese navy. [The Diplomat]

Indonesia, Britain deepen bilateral ties 

(nd) Indonesia and Britain have agreed to deepen security, defense and trade ties, highlighting the deployment of naval vessels, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, to the Indo-Pacific for later this year. The vessel will sail through the highly disputed South China Sea, which was criticized by China earlier, announcing measures to safeguard its sovereignty. After leaving the European Union, Britain was highlighting its commitment in the Indo-Pacific. They also signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on counterterrorism, and Britain reassured to support ASEAN with respect to Myanmar. Britain aims to obtain Dialogue Partner status with ASEAN, which will allow it to join the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting and the ASEAN Regional Forum. 

Bilateral trade amounted to US$2.24 billion last year, with British investment increasing by 35 per cent to US$72.5 million. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi voiced concern over a proposed legislation for due diligence with respect to negative environmental effects on a range of agricultural commodities, including palm oil, for which Indonesia is the world’s largest producer. [South China Morning Post]

Japan, Indonesia deepen defense cooperation

(nd) As part of “two plus two” security talks end of March, Japan and Indonesia reached an agreement for exports of Japanese defense equipment, mainly for air force navy, and mostly inspired by China’s growing aggression in the South China Sea.  Japan could deliver up to eight of Mogami-class stealth frigates to the Indonesian Navy, built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Mitsui Engineering and Shipbuilding at shipyards in Nagasaki and Tamano. Four of the vessels shall be delivered in late 2023 or early 2024, with the remaining four to be built by the state-run company PT PAL at its shipyard in Surabaya under a technology transfer agreement. The $3.6 billion worth deal is the largest ever arms deal between Indonesia and Japan and will enhance the Indonesian Navy’s long-range patrol capabilities. In 2020, Indonesia’s military spending jumped up sharply to $9.26 billion, a 19.8 percent increase from the year before, when it was the second-lowest in Southeast Asia.

As response to China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim, which was rejected by an international tribunal ruling in 2016, the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) have started to boost its maritime defense. In light of recent tensions between China and the Philippines in the Whitsun Reef, which lies within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Japan and Indonesia expressed their “grave concern over the continuation and escalation of an attempt to change the status quo by force”.  [The Diplomat]

Indonesia, China future of stalled BRI projects 

(nd) Several projects, which form part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have been significantly delayed due to financial and environmental considerations, most lately the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail project. The Chinese Foreign Ministry was citing the pandemic, as a matter of fact, many projects were stalling before the outbreak.

According to a recent analysis, Indonesia should use this as a reminder to address potential problems of large-scale BRI infrastructure projects before signing up. BRI project implementation began in 2013 through a comprehensive strategic partnership negotiated by then-President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and has initially prompted controversy and opposition in Indonesia. Points of criticism were the untransparent financing and corruption, financial viability as well as environmental issues. After many delays, the railway project is estimated to be $1.39 billion over budget, mainly because of issues with land acquisition and work incident, like the burning of the fuel distribution pipe, which collided with the construction of the train line. Despite needed investments from China, Indonesia still has a certain bargaining power, for China is depended on Indonesia for the realization of a maritime route from China to Rotterdam. [The Diplomat]

Philippines: Tensions remain high in South China Sea

(lp) The Philippines filed two more diplomatic protests against China’s incursion into Philippine territory, but these have been largely neglected by China. Thus, the Philippines is seeking support from allies to make China retreat. [CNN]

The US assured that it will defend the Philippines in case of any attack on a state-owned vessel, as stated in their 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). Moreover, the US Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group showcased this commitment to prevent China’s expansionism in the South China Sea. The Philippines welcomed these developments and even proposed to hold joint naval thrills with the US, while emphasizing it attempts to resolve the tensions with China through diplomatic channels. [Benar News] [Manila Bulletin 1] Motivated by this latest incursion, the Philippines is to discuss the conditions of the MDT with the US. In particular, the Philippines hopes to expand the trigger of the MDT to include attacks on public citizen vessels. Moreover, the Philippines demanded that the US provides real-time access to their intelligence data on the South China Sea. [CNN] [Manila Bulletin]

To resume an annual training which was cancelled last year due to the pandemic, the two will start a two-week joint military exercise from April 12. [Channel News Asia]

Japan is also wary of China’s expansionism, as it spotted a Chinese aircraft and five escort vessels passing throughJapan’s key waterways off Nagasaki and Okinawa. Japan also confirmed its allyship with the Philippines, but vowed to avoid war and promote peace in the South China Sea. Thus, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is planning visits to the Philippines and India during April, and talks with US President Joe Biden. [Manila Bulletin 2]

Most recently, two Chinese missile-attack crafts allegedly harassed a Philippine vessel carrying journalists investigating the impacts of China’s incursion on Filipino fishermen. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Department of National Defense (DND) have announced investigations. Meanwhile, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) announced that the “Task Force Pagsasanay” will improve training of its personnel on navigation along various waters, and maintenance and logistical operations. [The Diplomat] [Manila Bulletin 3]

Philippines, Hungary, Italy to sign agreements to enhance science and technology sectors

(lp) The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) officials met with Hungarian, Italian ambassadors to the Philippines to discuss possible scientific and technological partnerships. Some of the areas that require collaborative research and development include agriculture, health, industry, energy, and emerging technologies. [Manila Bulletin]

International Reactions on coup in Myanmar:  Sanctions and UN envoy

(lf) The UN special envoy for Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener is expected to tour Asia in order to help facilitate diplomatic actions to handle the mounting crisis in Myanmar. Burgener is expected to visit neighbouring Thailand and China, and was earlier denied entrance to Myanmar. [Asia Times]

The US has imposed sanctions against the four major gemstone company in Myanmar, deemed as "a key economic resource" for the military regime and connected to the military. As a primary source for jade in the world, these sanctions will have a severe impact on government funding. Among the four sanctioned companies, Myanmar Gems Enterprise (MGE) contributes to about half of the military’s revenue. [BBC 1]

Russia, on the other hand, has been opposing further international sanctions, stating that it is worried the actions taken might lead to a civil war in the country. Russia was one of the eight countries to send a delegate to Myanmar’s annual military parade, which turned out to be the deadliest day of the protests. [South China Morning Post]

China announced to have been in contact with all sides of the conflict, having spoken both to the generals as well as members of the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH). The CRPH represents lawmakers from the National League for Democracy (NLD). The Tatmadaw has declared the CRPH as an illegal organisation. China aims at playing a peace-promoting force in the crisis and has so far not condemned the violence or coup. China might be the most influential force, having previously been one of the few countries that had contact under the last military rule. [Reuters 1]

Malaysia has defended their ambassadors meeting with the generals, for which it had received a major backlash. Besides Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia have voiced their concerns over the growing violence in Myanmar. [Reuters 2]

In the UK the former ambassador of Myanmar Kyaw Zwar Minn to the UK has been locked out of the embassy by the military attaché after publicly condemning the coup and calling for a return of the former government. The British foreign ministry has accepted the change in the staff of the embassy, consequently ending the job of the former ambassador. The UK government has been asked to not recognize the new ambassador send by the military to take a diplomatic stance against the coup. Bound to the Vienna conventions for diplomacy this puts the British government in a dilemma: According to the convention the change in ambassadors is to be accepted, however, this may result in being accused of supporting the military government. Nonetheless, Britain has allowed the former ambassador to stay. [BBC 2] [Reuters 3]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

14 April 2021 @9:15 p.m. (GMT+2), Barcelona Center for International Affairs, Spain

Urban Mobility after Covid-19: Long-term strategies for the sustainable mobility transition in European cities

This online event will examine urban mobility in the post-pandemic time, with regards to both opportunities for accelerating change – from multi-stakeholder partnerships to social innovation – as well as barriers to long-term planning and transformation – from public acceptance to political, legal and technical limitations.

See for more information [CIDOB].

14 April 2021 @ 10:00-11:30 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

COVID-19 Damage Done and Lessons Learned: Malaysian Workers’ and Employers’ Perspectives

At this webinar, worker and employer advocates share their observations of the most significant impacts of COVID-19 on Malaysia’s economy and society and the most important lessons the country should take.

To register for the event, see [ISEAS].

14 April 2021 @12:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Barcelona Center for International Affairs, Spain

The European Union and the governance of the COVID-19 pandemic

This online discussion will provide analytical insights into the role of the European Union in the governance of the COVID-19 pandemic.

If you wish to know more about the event, visit [CIDOB].

14 April 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), National Endowment for Democracy, USA

International Law & Institutions Week: Dr. Camelia Bogdan

In this online talk, Dr. Camelia Bogdan, a judge on the Bucharest Court of Appeals and an expert on asset recovery, countering money laundering, and combating transnational corruption and other financial crimes, will speak about forms that financial crimes take in Romania and Europe. 

Event details are provided at [NED].

14 April 2021 @ 9:00-10:15 a.m. (GMT-4), Asia Society, USA

Redefining the Rules: The Future of WTO Subsidies Reform

Having not been updated in many years, the rules of the World Trade Organization do not reflect the realities of today’s global economy, particularly against the background of a global rise in the scope and magnitude of various types of subsidies and financial assistance offered to companies and entities. This online discussion will explore possible relevant reform measures.

More information accessible via [Asia Soicety].

14 April 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+2),  European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany

ECFR x Intelligence² Germany – Debate: We must stop big data’s pandemic power grab

This online debate will discuss the problem of the unprecedented scale digital surveillance has reached in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

If you are interested in joining this event, register at [ECFR].

14 April 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Sweden

Perspectives on the arms control agenda in 2021: Obstacles and opportunities

The online discussion will explore the current state of nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts, as well as the latest developments in the control of chemical and biological weapons, emerging technologies and international arms transfers.

Further information about the event to be found at [SIPRI].

14 April 2021 @ 9:30- 0:45 a.m. (GMT-4), Brookings Institution, USA

Difficult choices: Taiwan’s quest for security and the good life

This online book launch will introduce to “Difficult Choices: Taiwan’s Quest for Security and the Good Life” of Richard Bush who weaves together a detailed and nuanced analysis of the difficult policy choices that Taiwan faces, both internally and externally. 

More about the event at [Brookings].

14 April 2021 @ 2:00-3:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Brookings Institution, USA

Keeping your workplace safe from artificial intelligence and surveillance

The online roundtable will examine the growing impact of artificial intelligence on employee recruitment and hiring practices. Experts will discuss the ways companies are using AI, including screening applicants, evaluating job seekers, and keeping track of employee performance.

Further event information is available at [Brookings].

14 April 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Harvard Kennedy School, USA

Jewish Arabs | Arab Jews 

This event will focus on the merging sensibilities of the Arab Jew and the Jewish Arab across the Middle Eastern landscape and their depictions on stage and screen.

If you are interested in joining the event, please register here: [Harvard]

15 April 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT+1), Institute Affair International, Italy 

The new IEA Quarterly Gas Report

In this webinar, organised by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) in cooperation with the International Energy Agency (IEA), the findings of the IEA Gas Quarterly Report will be presented and discussed. 

More about the event at [IAI].

15 April 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 pm (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA

Democracy and Transatlantic Values in an Age of Great Power Competition

Due to the economic rise of Russia and China in the last decade, domestic challenges in the United States, and economic and political repercussions of U.S. policy in the Middle East, it appears as though the United States no longer holds the monopoly over international affairs and has to compete for global influence. This webinar will  address the question of how can the West stay competitive to defend its influence internationally, as uncertainty about the future arises?

Please register here: [ORBIS]

15 April 2021 @ 7:30-9:00 a.m. (GMT+8), Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore

IPS Corporate Associates Dinner with Mrs Tan Ching Yee 

This event will discuss Singapore’s economy and how the nation can push ahead in these extraordinary times. 

Further event details, available at [IPS].

15 April 2021 @ 6:15-7:15 p.m. (GMT+10), Lowy Institute, Australia

Reconstruction: Australia after COVID

This online event is the launch of John Edwards’s book “Reconstruction: Australia after COVID.” John Edwards is a Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He was a member of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia from 2011 to 2016. He was principal economic adviser to Treasurer and then Prime Minister Paul Keating.

More about the virtual launch at [Lowy Insitute].

15 April 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT+2), European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany

Home Advantage: How China’s vast protected market challenges European industry

This online event will launch a paper on the dynamics China’s market can have on European competitiveness. 

See [ECFR] for more details.

15 April 2021 @ 6:15-07:45 p.m. (GMT+2), GIGA, Germany 

10 Years After the Arab Spring

Ten years ago, popular uprisings challenged authoritarian systems across the Middle East and North Africa. The Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 and their aftermath, together with the Green Movement in Iran (2009) and the Gezi-protests in Turkey (2013), appeared to form part of a regional protest cycle. A decade later, these uprisings seem to have hardly left any traces, and their memory is eclipsed by other events. The online lecture – part of a lecture series – we will look back at the events of the Arab Spring in its broader regional and international context. What were the root causes for the uprisings? What were the results? Why did they largely fail? To what degree are current protest movements in countries of the Middle East and North Africa related to the Arab uprisings of 2011?

Please find more about the event at [GIGA].

16 April 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT+2), The Egmont Institute and the Norwegian Refugee Council, Norway

The future frame of EU humanitarian aid

The newly published Communication of the European Commission on humanitarian aid is an opportunity to clarify perimeters, reaffirm with force the authority of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and take the measure of how much the EU can leverage support to strengthen principled humanitarian action across the world. It should set the frame to address structural tensions that require more thinking and interactions and create at EU level a space for dialogue. To hear more about the future frame of EU humanitarian aid and its main orientations, join this online event. 

More about the event at [Egmont Institute].

16 April 2021 @ 5:00-6:30 p.m. (GMT+5.30), Centre for Policy Research (CPR), India

100 Unicorns: Deconstructing India's Changing Corporate Landscape

This event will discuss the kind of companies and ‘new’ entrepreneurs that are riding on the venture capitalists- and private equity-backed boom, even as there is a parallel phenomenon of capital destruction and withering away of firms from the ‘old’ corporate landscape.

If you are interested, find more about the event at [CPR].

20 April 2021 @ 1:30-2:30 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for International Governance Innovation, Canada

National Security Challenges in the 21st Century

This online talk will discuss national security challenges in the twenty-first century, the evolving global threat landscape, the best practices emerging in allied states and Canada’s response. 

Find more details at [CIGI].

19 April 2021 @ 10:0011:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Brookings Institution, USA

Sustainable US presence in the Middle East: Balancing short and long-term needs

This webinar will host practitioners, academics, and policy experts to address these key questions and discuss what a sustainable military presence in the Middle East looks like.

More about the event at [Brookings].

19 April 2021 @10:00-11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, USA

Virtual Roundtable With NSCAI and Commissioners Hon. Robert O. Work and Dr. Jose-Marie Griffiths 

On March 1, 2021, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) released a Report and "Blueprint for Action" to enable the United States to remain competitive in AI for national security purposes. The online roundtable will explore the report's recommendations and action steps for several facets of AI in government, including responsible use for national security and defense, promotion of AI innovation, and defense against AI threats.

Please register here:[CSBA]

19 April 2021 @ 4:45-9:30 p.m. (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank,  Japan

International Symposium on Mainstreaming Quality of Life in Evaluation of Transport and Spatial Planning 

This online symposium's focus will be on quality of life evaluation’s principles, application, and sustainable growth benefits, drawing upon case studies from France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

For more information see, [ADB]

19 April 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:15 p.m. (GMT+8), Institute of Water Policy, Singapore

Urban ecohydrological modelling to assess vegetation as urban climate mitigation strategy 

In this talk, an overview of numerical climate models at different spatial scales is given, and a novel urban ecohydrological model is introduced, which will be able to assess the combined climatic and hydrological effects of vegetation in cities as well as the feedback of the urban environment on plant performance.

Further details are available at [IWP].

20 April 2021 @ 3:30-4:45 p.m. (GMT+8), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 

RSIS Book Launch Webinar of “Protecting China’s Interests Overseas: Securitization and Foreign Policy” by Assistant Professor Andrea Ghiselli

Protecting China’s Interests Overseas provides a fascinating and new window into Chinese foreign and security policymaking. In particular, it shows how the management of non-traditional security issues abroad led to the emergence of China’s strategy to defend its interests overseas. This book comes at a critical time, as China has just inaugurated its first overseas military base in Djibouti, thereby establishing a long-term military presence outside Asia.

Find more information, see [Rsis]

20 April 2021 @ 12:15-2:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Brookings Institution, USA

Global goliaths: Multinational corporations in the 21st century economy

Multinational corporations are responsible for a huge slice of global employment, investment, and research. To some, they are malevolent monopolizers that exploit labor and avoid taxes. To others, they are engines of innovation and efficiency, contributing to global prosperity. In an effort to elevate the sometimes contentious public debate over the conduct and operation of multinational corporations and policy towards them, the new edited volume, “Global Goliaths: Multinational Corporations in the 21st Century Economy,” published by Brookings Institution Press, examines key questions about their role in their home countries and in the rest of the world where they do business. 

If you would like to join this event, please register at [Brookings].

20 April 2021 @ 2:00-3:15 p.m. (GMT+2), Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy

Russia’s Role in the Newly Shaped Order

This online webinar will elaborate on domestic and international factors shaping in 2021 Russia’s global role in a newly shaped order. Among the factors are the economic and health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the change of Presidency in the US, sanctions and volatile oil prices, political crises both in Russia and its immediate neighbourhood. At the same time, Russian opponent Alexei Navalny remains in jail and President Vladimir Putin has signed into law the results of last year's constitutional referendum, which allows him to potentially remain in power until 2036. 

For further details on the event, see [ISPI].

21 April 2021 @ 10:00-11:15 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Indonesia’s Economy 2021: Recovery or Stagnation?

In this webinar, Indonesia’s former Minister of Finance, Dr Muhammad Chatib Basri, will discuss the outlook and challenges facing the Indonesian economy in 2021.

More information accessible via [ISEAS].

22 April 2021 @ 10:30 a.m. (GMT+2), Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy

Sustainable Recovery for a Green Future

Part of the series of T20-associated closed-door and public roundtables, the online debate will deal with climate change, energy transition and sustainable growth as long-standing global challenges of a Covid-induced crisis which is urging to find the right balance between the much-needed global recovery and environmental targets. What are the key ingredients of a truly sustainable recovery? How to make this recovery even more consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives? What contribution can be expected from key countries? And what to expect from multilateral efforts and in particular from the Italian G20 in 2021? Find answers to these questions at this virtual roundtable. 

More information is available at [ISPI].

22 April 2021 @ 1:30-2:45 p.m. (GMT+2), Clingendael, Netherlands Institute of International Relations, The Netherlands

The Semiconductor Industry Squeezed

Part 4 of Clingendael’s series “Dealing with China on high-tech issues,” this online event will discuss the semiconductor industry which has been particularly affected by growing geo-economic tensions. Increased focus on alleged security concerns, the race for technological supremacy as well as the politicization of technologies and supply chains call collaborative advantages into question. How can European industry and government deal with the squeeze?

Find more about the event at [Clingendael].

22 April 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT+5), Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, Indonesia

Indonesia Policy Dialogue: The Future of Indonesia’s Foreign Trade

In this online conversation, Indonesian Trade Minister Muhammad Lufti will inform about the current status and future prospects of Indonesia foreign trade. 

For more details, see [CIPS].

Recent book releases 

John Woodrow Cox, Children under Fire: The American Crisis, Ecco, 336 page March 30, 2021, reviewed in [New York Times].

Joby Warrick, Red Line: The Unraveling of Syria and America's Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World, Doubleday, 368 pages, February 23, 2021, reviewed in [The Guardian].

Calls

The German Historical Institutes of Paris and Rome invite papers for their online seminars on "Euro-Mediterranean Entanglements in Medieval History". Deadline for submission is 15 June, 2021. For more information, see [DHI].

The journal Societies invites papers for its special issue on "Children’s Rights and Protection through Decolonial and Childist Approaches”. Deadline to submission is 1 October 2021. For more information, see [MDPI].

Jobs & positions

International Crisis Group is hiring a Senior Analyst to conduct research and draft reports on climate and security issues in Africa. Closing date for application is 2 May 2021. For details see [UN Jobs].

The World Trade Organization is recruiting a Trade Policy Analyst. Application deadline is 7 May 2021. More about the vacancy at [UN Jobs].

The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance is offering the position of Director for the Africa West Asia Region, to based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Closing date for applications is 2 May 2021. Further information available at [UN Jobs].

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