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Economists Question the Quality of U.S. Inflation Data; Bank of Canada Holds Rates; ECB Decision Eyed
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Some economists are questioning U.S. inflation data accuracy due to staffing shortages affecting survey precision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics used less precise methods for guessing price changes in April’s inflation report.
American employers further dialed down their hiring, a monthly report showed, in a sign the labor market may be weakening amid growing economic uncertainty.
The Bank of Canada left its main interest rate on hold. Gov. Tiff Macklem, said a rate cut might be necessary in the future if the economy stalls amid U.S. tariffs.
And the European Central Bank is set to lower its key interest rate Thursday, its eighth reduction in borrowing costs in a little more than a year.
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Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
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The quality of U.S. economic statistics has been the envy of global policymakers for decades. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg News
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Some economists are beginning to question the accuracy of recent U.S. inflation data after the federal government said staffing shortages hampered its ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.
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Trump Loves Europe’s Rate Cuts. Why the Fed Should Take Cover.
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President Donald Trump reignited his campaign to get Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, holding up the European Central Bank as an example of how it should be done. Well, the ECB is widely expected to lower rates again Thursday for an eighth consecutive meeting, bringing the key rate down by two percentage points since this time last year. The Fed, by contrast, delivered one point of cuts over the course of three meetings starting in September and has been on pause since December. Trump noted those divergent paths after economic data showed weak U.S. hiring in May—ADP’s private payrolls report showed 37,000 jobs were added in May, down from a revised 60,000 in April. “‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!!” Trump posted on social media. He noted that Europe had already lowered rates more. (Barron's)
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Bank of Canada Holds Rate as Economy Softens, Inflation Accelerates
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Photo: Mark Blinch/Reuters
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The Bank of Canada left its main interest rate unchanged, at 2.75%, saying the economy has softened but not deteriorated, and inflation has picked up steam.
Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said officials expect second-quarter economic growth to be “much weaker” after a surprise 2.2% annualized increase in the first quarter that was buoyed by exports and inventories as companies rushed to purchase goods to avoid tariffs.
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ADP Report: U.S. Firms Are Hiring at the Slowest Pace in Two Years
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Just 37,000 jobs were created last month, down from 62,000 in April, according to the ADP National Employment report released Wednesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected hiring to pick up pace to 110,000 new jobs on the month. The downturn means jobs growth was its weakest in more than two years.
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U.S. Economy Stalled in May, Fed Survey Finds
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The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in May, with consumers pulling back on spending and businesses delaying hiring, according to the Federal Reserve‘s Beige Book survey released Wednesday. According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth. Business contacts across the country said consumers were not spending and described labor markets as “flat.” Summing things up, the report said that “all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which has led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions.” (MarketWatch)
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U.S. Services-Sector Activity Unexpectedly Contracts
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Activity among U.S. services firms sank unexpectedly in May, pointing to mounting uncertainty and price pressures for businesses prompted by President Trump’s tariff policies.
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75% of Companies Have Already Raised Prices in Response to Tariffs
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Early signs indicate that many businesses are quickly raising prices for shoppers to cover most of the higher costs from sweeping U.S. tariffs on imported goods. Among businesses that are facing higher operational costs due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, roughly 75% are imparting at least some of the their cost increases on consumers, according to an analysis released Wednesday of the New York Fed’s Regional Business Survey of firms in the New York and Northern New Jersey region. (Barron's)
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7:30 a.m.: Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate announcement
8:30 a.m.: Revised Productivity and Costs
8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
11 a.m.: Global Services PMI
12 p.m.: Economic Club of New York event with Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler
12:30 p.m.: FRB Philadelphia president speaks at Philadelphia Council for Business Economics event
7 p.m.: U.S. President Donald Trump meets German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House
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8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report
1 p.m.: SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable
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Natural Disasters, Migration Loom Large Over State Budgets
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Natural disasters and migration patterns loom large over state budgets in the U.S. "We are seeing more disasters and we are seeing more expensive disasters," Conning's Karel Citroen says. "In part, that is because people have moved to areas that are more exposed" such as Florida and Texas, he says. As a result, insurance costs have skyrocketed in these locations, increasing living costs and pushing people to move out, eroding the local tax base. In a recent study, Conning found that international immigration boosted population growth in Florida, Texas and Nevada, while Utah and South Carolina remained popular destinations for retirees and people fleeing higher costs elsewhere. — Paulo Trevisani
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President Trump on Wednesday signed a sweeping travel ban on 12 countries, largely in the Middle East and Africa, and introduced more-limited travel restrictions on seven others, reintroducing a controversial immigration policy that came to define the early days of his first term.
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A federal judge ruled Wednesday that the Trump administration must allow migrants it shipped to a notorious Salvadoran prison an opportunity to challenge their removal from the U.S.
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The Trump administration threatened to yank billions in federal funding for California’s high-speed rail project, saying the state had mismanaged it, causing delays and cost overruns.
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German manufacturing orders unexpectedly rose in April, confounding fears that the Trump administration’s ratcheting up of tariffs would hit demand for German goods.
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The U.K.’s statistics agency said it has identified an error affecting calculations of consumer-price inflation, raising new questions about the reliability of its data amid similar concerns in the U.S.
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A private gauge of China’s services sector signaled that activity picked up in May, despite a renewed fall in new export orders.
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Global investment in clean-energy technology and infrastructure is set to double that of fossil fuels this year despite geopolitical and market turmoil, according to a report on the sector by the International Energy Agency.
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
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