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June Jobs Report Likely to Extend Fed’s Summer Pause; Barkin's Boots-on-the-Ground Approach

By Roshan Fernandez

 

The June jobs report is likely to keep Federal Reserve officials in their wait-and-see stance for the summer as they anxiously observe how significant trade and immigration policy changes influence pricing and job-staffing decisions by American businesses. The central bankers’ patience on rate moves comes as they continue to face pressure from President Trump’s “fiscal dominance” play. In the Richmond Fed district, Tom Barkin, the president of the regional Fed bank, is taking a boots-on-the-ground approach to talk to retailers, bankers and job recruiters as he and other policymakers navigate Trump’s hard-to-predict trade and economic policies.

 

Top News

June Jobs Report Likely to Extend Fed’s Summer Pause

PHOTO: Bloomberg News

Most Fed officials haven’t made much of an effort to build the case for rate cuts at their next meeting, July 29-30, even though two officials have said they are open to lowering rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that rate cuts are possible later this year, particularly if inflation readings this summer are milder than anticipated. But he has maintained that a solid labor market has given the Fed more time to see the effects of a range of policy changes implemented this year.

  • Steady Hiring Added 147,000 Jobs to U.S. Economy in June

To Understand the Economy, This Fed President Is Ditching His Desk

Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, is looking for clarity about inflation, tariffs and employment the old-fashioned way: He’s talking to people.

Trump’s ‘Fiscal Dominance’ Play

President Trump is pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates to make deficits easier to finance. This could end badly, but for now investors are on board.

A Few Members Saw Case for Unchanged Key Rate in June, ECB Says

A number of policymakers at the European Central Bank considered leaving the key interest rate unchanged in June, while ultimately deciding to back an eighth cut. According to a record of the meeting that ran from June 3 through 5, “a few members saw a case for keeping interest rates at their current levels.”

 

U.S. Economy

Homeowners Who Gambled on Lower Rates Are Paying the Price

Millions of Americans bought homes in recent years with mortgage rates at 6.5% or higher, often betting they could refinance to a lower rate within a year or two.

Now, with little hope of a rate cut in July after a solid jobs report on Thursday, many of these owners face the predicament of paying those higher costs for longer than they expected.

  • First-Time Home Buyers Are MIA. Landlords Are the Winners.

Trump Threatens Extra 10% Tariff on Brics-Aligned Countries

President Trump took to Truth Social to announce that “tariff letters and/or deals” will be delivered starting Monday, and threatened an additional levy on countries aligned with Brics. Brics is a group of countries including Brazil, Russia, India and China.

  • Trump Faces Crucial Week for Reaching Trade Deals

Vietnam Trade Deal Takes Aim at Back Door for Chinese Goods

A tariff agreement with Vietnam emphasizes one of the White House’s top priorities in this frantic round of dealmaking over global trade: slamming shut any backdoor routes for Chinese goods to enter the U.S.

  • The U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement looks positive for the Southeast Asian country and the broader region. But with details scarce and uncertainty high, analysts say don’t breathe easy just yet.

Trump Promised ‘No Tax on Tips.’ Then Came the Fine Print.

Many service workers are eagerly awaiting no longer paying taxes on their tips. Yet the fine print in Republicans’ new law could limit savings for some waiters, bartenders and others. Among the particulars restricting the reach of the measure: Only the first $25,000 in tips are free from income taxes. Tipped workers will still face the 7.65% combined payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare. And workers won’t be able to benefit if federal officials say their type of service job doesn’t qualify.

 

Financial Regulation

Old-School Floor Traders Finally Get Their Day in Court Against CME

Traders signaling prices filled the bustling floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2003. PHOTO: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Thousands of jostling traders once packed the floors of Chicago’s futures exchanges, before the advent of high-speed computerized trading turned them into relics of a bygone era. Now, some of them will finally have their day in court. On Monday, a trial is set to begin in a long-running class-action lawsuit filed by traders who say that exchange giant CME Group duped them out of the privileges they held as members of the city’s once-elite community of floor traders.

Ripple Seeks a U.S. Banking License

Ripple has applied for a national banking license, joining the rush of cryptocurrency companies seeking to cross the divide into mainstream finance.

India Cracks Down on Jane Street’s Lucrative Derivatives Trades

India has barred Jane Street from the country’s financial markets and said it would seize around $570 million that the U.S. securities firm made from allegedly fraudulent trades.

 

Forward Guidance

Monday (all times ET)

10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index
7 p.m.: President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Tuesday

6 a.m.: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
3 p.m.: Consumer Credit
7 p.m.: U.S. 90-day pause on 'reciprocal' tariffs on a country-by-country basis ends

 

Basis Points

  • Industrial production in Germany climbed in May, helped by its export-led car and pharmaceutical sectors, marking a rebound from the decline seen in April, the first month of Trump’s tariff blitz.
  • JPMorgan is reorganizing its private bank to better serve the world’s richest people, who want to safeguard their wealth by spreading it around the globe. (WSJ)
  • China's foreign exchange reserves rose for a sixth month in June but fell short of market expectations, official data showed on Monday. The hoard of foreign exchanges rose by $32.17 billion in June to $3.317 trillion, according to the People's Bank of China. (Dow Jones Newswires)
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.

 
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