Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage this morning for his first public remarks since last week’s policy meeting, where officials kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time. But investors expecting clues on the timing of rate cuts may be looking in the wrong place. And across the pond, European Central Bank’s vice president warned Thursday that investors are again underestimating the risk of disruptions to the global economy, and a fresh bout of sharp price falls is possible.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this morning is likely to focus on the central bank's review of its monetary policy framework, the blueprint that guides how the central bank interprets its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

The last time the Fed overhauled this framework was in 2020, during the depths of the Covid crisis. Interest rates were pinned near zero, and the central bank was pumping liquidity into the financial system.

A lot has changed since then. Inflation soared to a 9.1% peak in 2022, prompting the most aggressive series of rate hikes in four decades. While price pressures have since eased, they remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Looming over it all are tariff threats from President Donald Trump, whose trade policy could make the Fed’s job more difficult.

Despite calls from some economists for a major rethink, insiders say this year’s framework update will be more subtle. Expect tweaks that emphasize a more “symmetric” approach to inflation and an improvement in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which many critics see as opaque. (Barron's)

Buyers of newly built houses can get a mortgage rate of around 5% from a major builder, compared with the 6.79% average rate on a 30-year loan for the week through May 8.

But with Monday’s tentative deal, China agreed to drop its 125% retaliatory tariffs to 10%, bringing relief across this community.

8:30 a.m.: PPI
8:30 a.m.: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
8:30 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index
11 a.m.: ISM Semiannual Supply Chain Planning Forecast

8:30 a.m.: Import & Export Price Indexes
8:30 a.m.: New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
4 p.m.: Treasury International Capital Data
6 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin delivers Vance-Granville Community College commencement address
9:45 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives College of Western Idaho commencement address

The Federal Reserve might keep its policy rates unchanged until a rate cut in December, to be followed by further easing next year, analysts at Deutsche Bank Research say in a note. "Our base case remains that the next rate cut is in December, followed by two more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026," they say. These cuts will bring the fed funds rate into the 3.50%-3.75% range, which is consistent with Deutsche Bank's view of neutral, they say. The easing of tensions between the U.S. and China reduces risks of a sharper deterioration in the U.S. labor market, but other tariff actions are likely to keep inflation at uncomfortably high levels for the Fed, the analysts say. — Emese Bartha

Rents across the U.S. grew more affordable in April, Realtor.com says. Renters earning the typical household income devoted 23.4% of their income to lease a typical for-rent home, which is down from 24.7% in April 2024. Only five of the top 50 U.S. metros had a rent share higher than 30% relative to the median household income. Nationally, the median asking rent settled at $1,699, showing a slight $5 increase from the previous month but remaining $60 below its August 2022 peak. Realtor.com measures rental affordability by saying a household should spend no more than 30% of its gross income on housing costs. Using this measure, the typical for-rent home is affordable in most major U.S. metros for renters earning the typical household income. Oklahoma City was the most affordable rental market in April, with Miami standing out as the least affordable. — Chris Wack

• U.S. crude oil inventories posted an unexpected build last week, while product stocks fell amid higher demand, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
• Canada’s Liberal government will deliver on its promise of a middle-income tax cut that takes effect before July 1, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday.
• China said it has suspended some nontariff measures taken against U.S. entities imposed in April, another move to de-escalate tensions and implement the trade agreement the two governments reached in Geneva.
• Australian employment growth in April surged by more than four times what economists expected, which could cast doubt on a widely anticipated rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.