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Billion-Dollar AI Startup Bets AI Bots Can Predict Human Behavior Better Than Humans Can

By Nat Ives | WSJ Leadership Institute

 

Good morning. Today, marketers explore consumer research on machines.

Cameron Fink and Ned Koh in side-by-side photos

Co-founders Cameron Fink and Ned Koh started Aaru two years ago when they were 18 and 19 years old, respectively, along with technology chief John Kessler, then 15. Lanna Apisukh for WSJ

An AI startup founded by teenagers and valued at $1 billion is using bots to stand in for people in consumer research, Suzanne Vranica reports for The Wall Street Journal:

Instead of paying humans to join focus groups and complete surveys, Aaru uses thousands of AI agents, or bots, to simulate human responses. It feeds demographic and psychographic information into its models to create human profiles that match clients’ needs, and the results those bots spit out are being used for product development, pricing, identifying new customers and political polling.

Its capabilities have intrigued brands including Bayer, McDonald’s, Boston Beer and EY, which is using Aaru to help a dozen of its clients and in some cases replacing traditional surveys in its own studies.

“If you can predict behavior, this isn’t just an accelerator for research,” Sameer Munshi, head of behavioral science at EY, told Suzanne. “This is strategy.”

But the adventures in AI-human overlap are clearly just beginning.

The big AI news yesterday was that Meta Platforms is buying another social network: Moltbook, designed as a “third space” for AI agents and a way to see what bots say when you’re not in the room. (“Molt” from a metaphor about lobsters shedding their shells as they grow, “book” from “Facebook”)

In that case, the experiment has been complicated by allegations that many supposedly autonomous posts were steered by humans.

Marketing leaders don’t need any reminder that humans complicate everything.

After Cracker Barrel last year abandoned its new logo and backed off a remodeling plan, CEO Julie Felss Masino said the changes had tested well.

“We conducted extensive research to inform our strategic plan,” Masino said on an earnings call following the logo mess, “but what cannot be captured in data is how much our guests see themselves and their own story in the Cracker Barrel experience, which is what’s led to such a strong response to these changes.”

More adventures in AI: A judge ordered Perplexity’s browser-based AI agents to stop placing Amazon orders on behalf of users. [The Verge] 

Microsoft is siding with Anthropic in its legal fight against the Pentagon. [FT] 

ChatGPT ads’ availability through the ad tech firm Criteo appears to be bringing down the price. [Ad Age]

OpenAI delayed its planned “adult mode” for ChatGPT. “We still believe in the principle of treating adults like adults,” it said, “but getting the experience right will take more time.” [Guardian] 

 
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A Struggle in the Snack Aisle

Campbell’s cut its fiscal-year outlook as it reported a decline in second-quarter sales, dragged down by weak demand for its snacks, Nicholas G. Miller reports.

Net sales fell 5% to $2.56 billion. Wall Street had expected $2.61 billion. Snacks net sales fell 6%, driven partially by declines in chips and pretzels.

To stabilize the company’s snacks division, “we are taking decisive action, focused on sharpening our value, new product innovation and in-market execution,” Chief Executive Beekhuizen said. “We are also accelerating cost-saving initiatives to mitigate cost headwinds and support continued investment in our brands.”

More food news: Drive-through coffee competition is coming to grocery aisles, with new ready-to-drink products from brands like 7 Brew and Dutch Bros. [Restaurant Business] 

 

Quotable

“The worse the box office and theatrical business does, the more urgently the publicists, marketing departments and
C-suites of these studios weigh these [online] conversations.”

— Media analyst Evan Shapiro on the amateur box-office chatter that percolates on Reddit and elsewhere. Movie buffs’ conversation about budgets and ticket sales can influence search engines and content algorithms, which help studios evaluate the bankability of actors and directors.
 

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Keep Reading

Zara owner Inditex reported an acceleration in sales growth at the start of its fiscal year, despite some impact from the war in the Middle East. [WSJ] 

Bill Ackman’s unconventional public offering is going to need a convincing sales pitch. [WSJ] 

American Express and the hospitality startup Blackbird canceled their sponsorships of a Noma pop-up series in Los Angeles following a New York Times report that chef René Redzepi had abused his restaurant workers for years. [NYT]

MrBeast’s recent trademark applications suggest he could be getting into advertising and marketing services. [BI]

Nielsen’s Gracenote unit accused OpenAI in a lawsuit of scraping its descriptions of entertainment content as well as the framework it uses to connect that data. [Axios] 

Playboy named former Out Magazine editor Phillip Picardi its new chief brand officer and editor in chief. [Adweek] 

What does turning 21 mean for a generation that drinks less? [VinePair]

 
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We bring you the most important (and intriguing) marketing and experience news every day. Write me at nat.ives@wsj.com any time with feedback on the newsletter or comments on specific items. We want to hear from you.

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