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May 4, 2021 - Brief Issue 192

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus May 6.Please consider making a donation to support our ongoing analysis of the most important news and headlines surrounding Covid-19.​

Top Headlines

With Herd Immunity Unlikely, Covid-19 is Here to Stay – But Vaccinations Remain Key (Health & Science)

Moderna Pledges Up to 500 Million Vaccine Doses to Covax (Health & Science)

Kids Are Making Up a Larger Share of New Covid-19 Cases, As the FDA Moves to Approve Pfizer’s Shot In Teens (Health & Science)

Companies Investigate Pill, Nasal Spray Forms of Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

Health Experts Criticize India’s Government, High Court Steps In as More Patients Die From Lack of Oxygen (Around the World)

Russia Behind in its Vaccination Drive (Around the World)

Germany Cancels Oktoberfest for Second Year (Around the World)

Australia Bans Its Citizens in India From Returning (Around the World)

GOP Struggles to Identify Moderate Candidates to Challenge New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut to End Covid Restrictions on May 19 (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Says Requiring Vaccines For U.S. Troops is “A Tough Call” (U.S. Government & Politics)

Household Income Increases in March, Fueled by Stimulus Checks (U.S. Economy)

Unemployment Falls (U.S. Economy)

Supply Chain Struggles and Other Pandemic Challenges Cause Automakers to Reassess “Just in Time” Manufacturing Strategy (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 32,472,129 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 577,565 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 437,469,331 tests and administered 246,780,203 vaccine doses, with 44.4% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 31.8% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 153,594,320 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,214,790 deaths. At least 90,326,402 people have recovered from the virus.

With Herd Immunity Unlikely, Covid-19 is Here to Stay – But Vaccinations Remain Key

Although more than half of U.S. adults are at least partially vaccinated against Covid-19, vaccination rates are slipping, and the dream of herd immunity – where enough people are immune to basically eradicate the virus – is quickly fading (NYT). At the beginning of the pandemic, experts placed the vaccination percentage needed for herd immunity at 60-70%, but as more contagious coronavirus variants take hold, that figure is now an even less attainable 80%. Widespread vaccine hesitancy makes herd immunity an elusive goal. Another major factor is the way Covid-19 circulates. “If the coverage is 95 percent in the United States as a whole, but 70 percent in some small town, the virus doesn’t care,” said Dr. Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “It will make its way around the small town.” 

With this in mind, health experts – including chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci – are expecting the virus to last for years as a persistent but manageable threat. Most see vaccination as the key to lessening Covid-19’s impact on society. “People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” Dr. Fauci said. “I’m saying: Forget that for a second. You vaccinate enough people, the infections are going to go down.” Meanwhile, state officials are operating as locally as possible to improve community access to, and trust in, Covid-19 vaccines (WSJ). 

Moderna Pledges Up to 500 Million Vaccine Doses to Covax

Moderna, the American company behind one of the three Covid-19 shots approved for use in the U.S., announced Monday that it will provide Covax, a World Health Organization-backed vaccine distribution program, with up to 500 million doses (NYT, WaPo, Politico). This deal, negotiated between Moderna and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, will supply 92 low- and middle-income countries with vaccines. The first 34 million doses will be issued by the end of 2021, and the rest some time next year. Covax has been struggling with supply, according to WHO director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus − the program is designed to confront vaccine inequality, but has so far delivered only 49 million doses to countries in need.

Kids Are Making Up a Larger Share of New Covid-19 Cases, As the FDA Moves to Approve Pfizer’s Shot In Teens 

Children are accounting for a growing percentage of U.S. Covid-19 cases, representing 22.4% of new infections in the past week, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics (NPR). High vaccination rates among older adults are likely behind this trend, meaning children make up a larger share of Covid-19 cases simply because older people aren’t getting the virus as much. But the spread of more contagious variants like B.1.1.7 and spikes in cases caused by more in-person school activities are also playing a role, said Dr. Sean O'Leary, vice chair of the AAP's Committee on Infectious Diseases. Plus, community outbreaks will inevitably make their ways into schools, thus infecting school-aged children. Commenting on what this means for kids, O’Leary said Covid-19 is generally less severe in children, but the disease shouldn’t be underestimated. “So we do need a vaccine for children, not just to protect, not just to achieve herd immunity, but also to protect the children themselves,” he said. 

Vaccine producers Pfizer and Moderna are testing their shots in kids as young as six months old, with the goal of getting shots into kids’ arms as soon as possible. Pfizer applied for emergency authorization with the Food and Drug Administration for its vaccine to be used in adolescents 12 to 15 years old, and is likely to be approved early next week (CNN, NYT). Moderna expects results from its clinical trial in teens soon.

Companies Investigate Pill, Nasal Spray Forms of Covid-19 Vaccine

Of the 227 Covid-19 vaccines in development across the world, two are orally administered and seven are nasal sprays, suggesting that next-generation vaccines might take a different form than the standard shot (WSJ). Not only will these vaccines be easier to store and transport than the shots currently being used, but the companies behind them hope for longer-lasting immune responses and more robust protection. Maryland-based Altimmune, Inc. is developing a nasal spray vaccine that could help recipients develop immunity in the mucosal tract, thus keeping the virus out of the respiratory system. “Having this mucosal immunity that can both block infection on its way in and also neutralize it when it’s on its way out could be very important from a public-health perspective,” said Altimmune chief scientific officer Dr. Scot Roberts. Whether their products come in pill, spray, or shot form, many companies, including Pfizer and Moderna, are looking ahead to second- and third-generation Covid-19 vaccines. Experts predict the need for booster vaccinations and variant-specific mechanisms. U.S. Army researchers are even looking into a shot that targets all types of coronaviruses at once, to preempt future and possibly more deadly coronavirus outbreaks. 

Experts Say Testing and Tracking Efforts Will Be Imperative in “New Phase” of Pandemic; Some Point to U.K Model

As vaccines become more widely available and public health measures more relaxed, experts predict that fast, easy-to-access testing will play a critical role in keeping Covid-19 in check (WSJ). “We’re entering into a new phase of this pandemic, and the role of testing and sequencing and all different modes of keeping an eye on the virus is certainly changing, in terms of what its role is in keeping the community safe and keeping a handle on this pandemic,” said Michael Mina of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Even as more people get vaccinated, the virus can still spread – especially among those who cant or won’t get the shot – so vigilant testing, especially for more contagious variants, is key. 

Some experts point to the U.K.’s testing strategy as an example the U.S. should follow. The U.K. has made at-home Covid-19 tests free and available, and Britain’s lab capacity for genomic sequencing and PCR testing has greatly increased over the course of the pandemic. The U.S. has also ramped up testing and tracking efforts, though it faces more access and distribution issues – testing can be expensive, access is impeded by regulatory roadblocks, and genomic sequencing is geographically spotty. According to data from Oxford University, the U.K. runs 16 tests for every 1,000 people a day, compared to three per 1,000 in the U.S. 

Maryland Governor Kept Covid-19 Tests In Use, Even After Suspected False Positives

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan is under scrutiny for pushing a batch of PCR Covid-19 tests into use even after those tests yielded a spate of likely false positives, which caused Towson University to shut down in-person classes last fall (WaPo). The false positives reported at Towson, another university, and two nursing homes all came from LabGun brand tests being processed at a University of Maryland lab in Baltimore. The tests were a replacement batch, after an initial batch of 500,000 PCR tests was found to be flawed. 

Following the flurry of false positives, the University of Maryland lab stopped using these replacement tests, though the lab denies its decision was connected to false test results. Hogan then directed 90,000 of the tests to be moved to the state’s public health lab, even though the lab’s director, Robert Myers, had concerns. Jinlene Chan, Hogan’s acting deputy secretary for public health services, said the public health lab did not report any issues with the tests. The batch was moved to a private lab, CIAN Diagnostics, in late summer of last year, “in order to have them used more quickly,” Hogan said. Even though the Hogan administration defended the tests last November by saying there were no issues with the University of Maryland lab that originally ran them, Patricia Nay, the director of the state agency that investigated the lab on Hogan’s behalf, said the agency wasn’t responsible for actually checking the function of the tests. Hogan announced in mid-December 2020 that Maryland had “successfully utilized” all of the replacement LabGun testing kits. 

Bonus Reads: “Virologist Angela Rasmussen on the Controversy Surrounding Russia’s Sputnik V Covid-19 Vaccine,” (STAT); “Can't Help Falling In Love With A Vaccine: How Polio Campaign Beat Vaccine Hesitancy,” (NPR).

Around the World

Asia

Health Experts Criticize India’s Government, High Court Steps In as More Patients Die From Lack of Oxygen

In an article published in the journal The Lancet, health experts criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for allowing mass gatherings, including at political rallies, and for slipping into complacency earlier this year in the fight against Covid-19. The article also highlighted the discrepancy between India’s vaccine production and its domestic supply, saying “Despite manufacturing vaccines for other countries, India is facing a shortage of vaccines for its own programme. Some people who have received their first injection of the two vaccines in use in India (Covaxin and Covishield) have been unable to get their second dose as vaccination centres around the country are reporting an absence of replenishments.” The month of March was “a period of hectic public gatherings, sanctioned and even encouraged by public officials. Five states held elections this month, and many politicians, including India's prime minister and leaders of several parties, conducted hundreds of massive political rallies around India.” Now, the country’s hospitals are running out of oxygen, causing several tragedies where multiple people died from a supply shortage. The latest incident occurred Sunday night, when at least 12 people hospitalized with Covid-19 died in Chamarajanagar in southwestern India due to a lack of oxygen (NYT). On Sunday, the New Delhi High Court said that it would start punishing government officials for failing to deliver oxygen after hospitals in the capital successfully sought an injunction, The Associated Press reported. The Supreme Court also urged the central and state governments to consider another lockdown to gain control of the virus and to create an emergency stockpile of oxygen, according to the Indian news media. 

Bonus Read: “India’s Massive COVID Surge Puzzles Scientists,” (Nature). 

Europe

Russia Behind in its Vaccination Drive

Even though Russia was the first country in the world to approve a coronavirus vaccine, its vaccination campaign is now lagging in getting its population immunized. Officials had set an ambitious goal of vaccinating more than 30 million of the country's 146 million people by mid-June and nearly 69 million by August. But as of mid-April, over 1 million of Moscow’s 12.7 million residents, or around 8%, have received at least one shot even though the campaign began in December (AP). That percentage mirrors that of Russia as a whole: through April 27, only 12.1 million people have gotten at least one shot and only 7.7 million, or 5%, have been fully vaccinated. Compare that to the U.S., where 43% have gotten at least one shot. 

Germany Cancels Oktoberfest for Second Year

On Monday Bavarian officials canceled Oktoberfest festivities for a second year in a row because of concerns over the spread of Covid-19. Officials said that the celebrations, which would bring visitors from around the world, were too risky. Coronavirus case numbers remain stubbornly high in Germany and hospitals are struggling to deal with the number of patients being admitted, even as the country endures another lockdown that includes a ban on large gatherings. Bavaria is slightly below the national average with 145.4 new weekly infections per 100,000, according to the country’s disease control center, the Robert Koch Institute (AP). “For me, personally, it was no easy decision because it is a huge date in the calendar for the mayor,” Mayor Dieter Reiter said. “Much more importantly, it’s a huge shame for the millions of fans worldwide.”

Australia

Australia Bans Its Citizens in India From Returning

For the first time ever, Australia has made it a criminal offense for its own citizens and permanent residents to enter the country. As of Monday, Australia banned all travel from India, including the return of its own citizens and permanent residents, even children who are separated from their parents (NYT). Although other countries have cut off travel to and from India as it battles a severe second wave of the virus, no other democratic nation has issued a similar ban on all arrivals. Britain, Germany, and the U.S., for example, have restricted travel from India but have exempted citizens and permanent residents. Human rights groups have condemned the move as a violation of citizenship principles and some have suggested the policy was motivated by racism. 

Americas

Canadian Residents Wait For Second Doses

Canada’s slow vaccine rollout has left some people waiting for months between doses of Covid-19 vaccines. At least 33% of Canadians have received one shot, but just 3% are fully vaccinated (NYT). New daily cases have averaged over 8,700 in mid-April, levels not seen since a winter surge. Officials say that the wait time between the two inoculations will shorten once supplies increase but many Canadians are frustrated with the delays, especially as public officials discuss the possibility of vaccinated American tourists being allowed to enter the country soon. 

Bonus Read: “How Social Class Affects Covid-Related Layoffs Worldwide,” (NYT).

U.S. Government & Politics

GOP Struggles to Identify Moderate Candidates to Challenge New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

A series of scandals involving alleged sexual misconduct and allegations that he sought to hide the extent of Covid deaths in New York nursing homes, have left New York’s Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo in a particularly weak position, giving New York Republicans an opportunity to take the governorship. However, Politico reports that the GOP is struggling to identify and recruit moderate candidates likely to appeal to New York voters (Politico). Politico writes, “New York Republicans are about to get their best chance in years to take back state government: A five-alarm scandal that’s left Gov. Andrew Cuomo facing an impeachment inquiry and multiple investigations. But 15 years after the departure of George Pataki — a moderate and the only Republican to win a New York governor’s race in five decades — the GOP is bucking conventional wisdom that suggests a center-right gubernatorial candidate is their best, perhaps only, shot at success.” As a result, candidates closely affilited with Trump including current New York Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, who joined Trump in claiming the 2020 election was stolen and is a staunch opponent of abortion, Andrew Giuliani, who worked for the Trump White House and is the son of Trump confidante Rudy Giuliani, and GOP firebrand Elise Stefanik. The situation, largely the result of changes in the Republican party and the lack of available moderates, will test the long-held theory, seemingly supported by electoral results, that for Republicans winning at the state level in New York will require a moderate in the vein of Governor Pataki.

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut to End Covid Restrictions on May 19

New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut all plan to end most of their state-wide Covid related restrictions on May 19 (Politico). New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated, “This is a major reopening of economic and social activity.” New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy stated, “I have every expectation … that we will hit this May 19 target date with a bullseye.” The changes would relax some of the nation’s most strict restrictions.

Biden Says Requiring Vaccines For U.S. Troops is “A Tough Call”

President Biden said he hasn’t yet ruled out making Covid-19 vaccines mandatory for U.S. troops, describing the decision as “a tough call” and noting that military personnel are often in close quarters where the virus can easily spread (Politico). In March of this year, Democratic lawmakers pressured Biden to instate a military vaccine mandate, in response to reports of high vaccine hesitancy among military members. As of February, data showed one-third of troops turning down the shot, and in April, the Pentagon said almost 40% of Marines had decided to pass on getting vaccinated (Politico, USA Today). Biden is still undecided on requiring the vaccine among the troops: “I’m going to leave that to the military,” he said. “I’m not saying I won’t. I think you’re going to see more and more of them getting it.”

U.S. Economy

Household Income Increases in March, Fueled by Stimulus Checks

In March, U.S. household income rose 21.1% driven by the arrival of stimulus checks (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, that it “was the largest monthly increase for government records tracing back to 1959, largely reflecting $1,400 stimulus checks included in President Biden’s fiscal relief package signed into law in March. The stimulus payments accounted for $3.948 trillion of the overall seasonally adjusted $4.213 trillion rise in March personal income.” Data released by the Commerce Department also showed a sharp 4.2% increase in spending. Personal savings also increased 27.6%.

Unemployment Falls

Data released by the Labor Department on Thursday shows that the number of jobless claims fell by 13,000 last week to 553,000 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The latest reading marked the third straight week jobless claims were below 600,000, their lowest levels since early 2020. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility in the weekly figures, was 611,750, also a pandemic low.”

Supply Chain Struggles and Other Pandemic Challenges Cause Automakers to Reassess “Just in Time” Manufacturing Strategy

Buffeted by supply chain disruptions, at least partly related to the pandemic, as well as swings in demand driven by the pandemic, many automakers are reassessing their strategy of “just in time” manufacturing (WSJ). Rather than only acquiring the materials as they are needed as a way of reducing warehousing and other costs, companies like Toyota are now stockpiling materials. Ashwani Gupta, Nissan Motor Co.’s chief operating officer told the Wall Street Journal, “The just-in-time model is designed for supply chain efficiencies and economies of scale,” adding, “The repercussions of an unprecedented crisis like Covid highlight the fragility of our supply-chain model.”

Lumber Breaks Price Records, Again

As we have covered in prior briefs, the pandemic has seen record lumber prices driven in part by a pandemic-related construction boom. Last week, lumber prices hit new records (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Lumber futures for May delivery ended Friday at $1,500.50 per thousand board feet, an all-time high and roughly four times the typical price this time of year. Futures have risen by the daily maximum allowed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange during nine of the last 17 trading sessions.”

Analysis & Arguments

Joel Achenbach writes on how Americans are still figuring out what risks they are willing to take, a year into the pandemic (WaPo).

Derek Thompson interviews those Americans still refusing to get vaccinated (Atlantic).

Alexander Zaitchik argues that Bill Gates and his foundation have impeded global access to Covid vaccines (New Republic).

Jim Geraghty argues that President Biden has taken an inconsistent approach to travel bans as part of the Covid response (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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