Grasp the pattern, read the trend
No. 31, August/2021, 1
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Henning Glaser
Editor in Chief
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Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Law and Politics in East Asia
China: First person jailed under Hong Kong security law given nine years
(dx) The first person charged under Hong Kong’s national security law has been sentenced to nine years in prison for terrorist activities and inciting secession. The watershed ruling is seen to set the tone for future cases brought under the law. [BBC] [The Guardian]
Tong Ying-kit was arrested last year after he drove a motorcycle with a flag reading “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times” into police officers during a demonstration on July 1, less than 24 hours after the security law was enacted. Last week, then, Tong was sentenced to six and a half years in prison for inciting secession and eight years for terrorist activities. Of these, two and half years will run consecutively, resulting in a total term of nine years. [The Straits Times 1] [The Straits Times 2]
Parts of the 15-day trial focused on the meaning of the above-mentioned slogan, which was ubiquitous during pro-democracy protests in 2019. The prosecution argued that the phrase literally called for Hong Kong's independence from the mainland, while the defense contended its meaning was more ambiguous. In convicting Tong, the panel of three judges found the slogan was “capable” of being secessionist, and Tong had deliberately incited separatism by displaying the slogan. [Hong Kong Free Press 1]
The verdict was immediately condemned by pro-democracy activists and human rights groups, including Amnesty International, which said Tong’s case marked a significant departure from Hong Kong’s common law traditions, as he was denied bail and a jury trial – the latter for the first time in the court’s 176-year history. [Amnesty International]
China: Radio host’s sedition trial watershed moment for Hong Kong as authorities stamp out dissent
(dx/lm) A pro-democracy Hong Kong radio host went on trial on July 29 for sedition in the first use of the colonial-era law since the city’s handover to China as authorities broaden their criminalization of dissent.
The online talk show host faces eight sedition charges for slogans he either uttered or wrote between January and July of last year. [The Straits Times]
The trial is seen as manifestation of a legal watershed as it sets a precedent for what political phrases and views are now deemed illegal in China’s attempt to stamp out political dissent in HK following the pro-democracy protests two years ago.
Sedition is a colonial-era law that until last year had not been used since Hong Kong’s 1997 handover to China. It carries up to two years in jail for a first offence. Police and prosecutors are now regularly using it alongside the national security law to clamp down on political speech and views.
Earlier this month, the new national security police unit, which is spearheading a sweeping crackdown on dissent, arrested five members of a Hong Kong union behind a series of children’s books that try to explain the city’s democracy movement to children on similar charges. [The Guardian]
Most of those arrested for such crimes are denied bail.
China: Hong Kong cuts ties with teachers’ union, saying it incited protests
(lm) In an unprecedented step, Hong Kong’s government has cut ties with the city’s largest teachers’ union, stripping it of its status as a professional body, in the latest attempt to change an education system that Beijing blamed for fueling social unrest and dissent among students. [The Wall Street Journal, $]
The Education Bureau (EDB)’s announcement on July 31 came within hours after two of China’s state-media outlets called for the Professional Teachers’ Union (PTU) to be “eradicated”, saying it was a “poisonous tumor”. Both outlets also called for an investigation into the union’s role in inciting unrest in Hong Kong, even though the PTU had already distanced itself from two groups that have been accused by Beijing of violating the national security law. [Global Times]
Using similar language, the EDB in its announcement then accused the PTU of engaging in political propaganda under the guise of an education organization, saying it had urged teachers to launch class boycotts and incited students to join “violent and unlawful activities” during the widespread 2019 protests.
The move means the government will no longer meet or consult with the educators’ group. Any member of the union will also be stripped of their positions on government advisory bodies while its teacher’s training courses will also no longer be recognized. [Hong Kong Free Press]
In response, the PTU – which represents some 95,000 members –said in two statements that it did not incite student protests and has opposed separatism since its foundation more than four decades ago. It also said the EDB had already significantly reduced its meetings with the union in recent years, adding that the full termination of ties would be a loss for the teaching industry. [South China Morning Post 1]
The decision comes at a time when Hong Kong’s education sector is experiencing ongoing reforms to promote national security in schools and universities, as required by the Beijing-imposed national security law. Students from at least three publicly funded Hong Kong universities will have to undergo education in the topic as a requirement for graduation from the coming academic year. [South China Morning Post 2]
China: Hong Kong man arrested for allegedly booing Chinese anthem while watching Olympics
(dx/lm) Hong Kong police have arrested a man on suspicion of insulting the national anthem, after he allegedly waved a colonial-era Hong Kong flag and booed during a mall screening of an Olympic event at a mall. [Hong Kong Free Press] [South China Morning Post]
Hong Kong passed a law in June of last year that criminalizes any actions that insult the national anthem. Anyone found guilty of flouting the national anthem law could be jailed up to three years and fined $6,400. Moreover, China’s central government criminalized actions that insult the national flag and emblem in amendments made to a law in October 2020, which is also applicable to Hong Kong. [The Guardian]
China to impose anti-sanctions law on Hong Kong, Macau
(lm) China’s top legislative body is planning to introduce anti-sanctions laws in Hong Kong and Macau, a move that could leave many foreign entities and their employees caught in rising tensions between Washington and Beijing. [The Wall Street Journal][The Straits Times]
The move comes after Beijing rushed through its own “antiforeign sanctions law” last month in response to sanctions imposed on the country by the United States and Europe. The legislation authorizes the Chinese government to seize assets from and deny visas to individuals and groups who formulate or implement sanctions against the country. It also empowers individuals and companies to sue "individuals and organisations" to seek compensation for discriminatory practices in Chinese courts. [AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3]
While much depends on how strictly Beijing chooses to enforce the legislation, the measure could create new headaches for thousands of foreign companies that operate in the two Chinese territories, especially in the financial hub of Hong Kong as it could force firms to deal with potentially incompatible US and Chinese rules. [Nikkei Asia]
China accuses BBC of ‘fake news’ over floods reporting
(lm) China on July 29 accused British national broadcaster BBC of disseminating “fake news” and claimed the media outlet was “naturally unpopular” over its coverage of devastating floods in central China. [The Straits Times 1]
Meanwhile, correspondents of international outlets covering the aftermath of a severe flooding in China’s central province of Henan reported harassment by locals, who accused them of being “rumour mongers”. Reporters from the Los Angeles Times and German outlet Deutsche Welle were physically confronted by angry crowds, who filmed and questioned them, on July 24. Other journalists have been targeted with death threats, with a specific focus on the BBC. [The Guardian] [The Straits Times 2]
According to China Digital Times, Chinese media, which are strictly monitored and controlled by authorities, were ordered to only report “authoritative information” about casualties and property damage, and instructed not to “take an exaggeratedly sorrowful tone or hype or draw connections to past events” without permission. [World Politics Review, $]
The incidents come against the larger backdrop of rising hostility towards foreign media in China, which have made reporting increasingly difficult and risky for foreign outlets. In the past 18 months at least a dozen US journalists have been expelled in a tit-for-tat with Washington, and at least four journalists were forced to flee. Two others were arrested and detained on undefined national security accusations.
China: Outspoken tycoon jailed for 18 years
(dx) Sun Dawu, a rural tycoon and outspoken critic of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, was sentenced to 18 years in prison in a close-door trial on July 28, the latest in a string of punishments against corporate bosses. [South China Morning Post]
Sun had been detained in November of last year, along with 20 relatives and business associates, over a land dispute with a government-run farm. Prosecuted in a trial alongside 19 family members and employees, he was convicted of a range of crimes, including organizing people to attack state agencies, obstructing public affairs and provoking quarrels. He was also fined 3.11 million yuan ($478,697). [BBC]
The Dawu Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Group, a conglomerate that bears the tycoon’s name, was fined more than 30 million yuan ($4.6 million).
Long a thorn in the side of Beijing, Sun has in the past spoken out about human rights and politically sensitive topics. In 2015, he voiced his support for those caught up in the “709 crackdown”, when over 300 human rights lawyers and activists were detained. He also publicly criticized the Hebei authorities in 2019, accusing them of covering up the extent of the damage done by African swine fever outbreaks. [AiR No.29, July/2021, 3]
The sentence comes amid broader efforts by Chinese President Xi Jinping to muzzle outspoken business leaders and bring the private sector to heel. In 2018, Wu Xiaohui, a Chinese tycoon who rose to prominence after he bought the Waldorf Astoria Hotel, was sentenced to 18 years in prison for defrauding investors. Last year, Ren Zhiqiang, a retired real estate mogul, was given an 18-year prison term after he called President Xi a clown in an essay. [The New York Times]
The harsh sentences are likely to have a discouraging effect on other private entrepreneurs.
China: Confusion over three-children policy shift
(dx) China’s top health authority has confirmed that all mainland citizens are allowed to have up to three children, amid confusion over when the major policy shift would take effect. [South China Morning Post 1]
Against the larger backdrop of growing concerns over the nation's rapidly ageing population, China earlier this year put and end to its existing two-child policy –which had failed to lead to a sustained upsurge in births – and replaced it with a three-child limit [see AiR No.22, June/2021, 1].
The move, which was approved by President Xi Jinping at a meeting of top Communist Party officials, was announced on May 31. But the decision has not yet been legislated and the amendment of Population and Family Planning Law is yet to be submitted to the legislature.
The country’s National Health Commission confirmed that couples who want to have a third child can do so and have been able to do so since May 31. Apparently, the May announcement had caused confusion among local governments, which have taken different approaches to implementing the policy change. [South China Morning Post 2]
Besides revising the law on population and family planning, the government will roll out a range of incentive policies to encourage couples to have more children. These measures include reducing the cost of giving birth, raising a child and education; abolishing the country’s fines for violating birth control policies; primary and middle schools will extend the school day; low-cost childcare places will be added and nursery schools for children will be expanded. Still, health authorities remain cautious about prospects for a baby boom. [Global Times] [South China Morning Post 3]
Japan: PM Suga seeks to continue as LDP leader
(dx) Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga last week announced that he intends to seek re-election as President of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), more than two months before his term expires on September 30. [Mainichi Shimbun]
The party plans to set up an 11-member election management committee, which will then have to release an election schedule by the end of this month, as per party rules. Suga apparently hopes that the election will be held after the 49th general election of members of Japan’s House of Representatives, which is scheduled on or before October 22, as required by the Constitution of Japan.
Because no other contenders have so far declared their intention to run for the presidency, there is a good case to believe that Suga hopes to continue as party leader without a vote. This decision seems to be based on presumed support from former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has a strong influence on the Hosoda faction - the LDP's most powerful parliamentary faction.
Another party heavyweight, current LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, last month told Suga that he would support him staying on as prime minister. [Asia Nikkei]
However, some LDP members prefer to see Suga replaced as party chief before the general election, as they believe that the party might not contest the polls well under his leadership given that Suga’s approval ratings have steadily declined since he assumed office last year, reaching a low of 29 percent last month [see AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]. [The Japan Times]
Earlier this month, an LDP-led ruling coalition failed to secure a majority in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which has long been regarded as an important prelude to subsequent national elections. Many Tokyoites are voters without party affiliation, and their vote is often a reflection of broader public sentiment that could boost or depress the ruling parties’ performance in the general election. [AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1]
South Korea: Presidential candidate to become PPP member
(nd) Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl joined the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) to increase his chances of winning the presidential elections next year. The prospective conservative candidate declared to run for office last month. The move was anticipated and will subject him to the party's in-house primary election to pick a presidential candidate. Prior, he had stepped down as a prosecutor due to a feud with the ruling party of President Moon Jae-in and the justice minister, joining the presidential race in opposition to the government. Lately, support for Yoon was decreasing. For now, 11 other candidates are competing with Yoon for the position, including Choe Jae-hyeong, former head of the state audit agency, who became a PPP member last month. Choe opposed Moon’s decision to close a nuclear reactor prematurely. Yoon’s election team emphasized the need to engage with voters in person as well as recruit young and moderate voters, in an effort to broaden the party’s horizon. [Yonhap 1] [Yonhap 2] [Yonhap 3]
Taiwanese retired general urges military Coup to surrender to China
(nds) A retired Taiwanese general urged the country's military to overthrow the democratically elected government in a video titled "Letter from 'General An-Kuo's Unification Forum' to Brothers in the Army, Navy and Air Force," to pave the way for a Chinese take-over of Taiwan. Moreover, he accused the Taiwanese authorities of being responsible for the outbreak of covid cases by refusing the Chinese vaccine. The video sparked an outcry in Taiwanese social networks urging politicians and legal experts to investigate the soldier for treason and violating the National Security Act. In addition, the general could be charged under Article 153 of Taiwan's criminal code, which prohibits inciting another to commit an offense, break the law, or disobey an order. Furthermore, the general filmed himself wearing the official military uniform without authority, which violates Article 159 of the law. [Taiwan News] [Taipei Times]
Taiwan to restrict its citizens from working in critical industries in China
(nd) Taiwan announced to impose heavy fines ranging between NT$2 million (US$71,532) and NT$10 million on citizens trying to work in China involved in “critical industries” in an effort to protect the country’s core technologies. According to the amendment to the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area proposed by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), individuals, corporations, and organizations working related to defense, diplomacy, technology, intelligence, and Chinese affairs have to seek government approval before entering into the Chinese market. [Taiwan News]
Law and Politics in South Asia
Bangladesh: Thousands displaced as floods hit Rohingya camps
(lm) At least 11 Rohingya refugees were killed by landslides or drowned in flooding after heavy monsoon rains inundated refugee camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar district last week, turning settlements into fast-flowing rivers overnight. [The New York Times] [The Guardian] [The Straits Times]
The flooding has particularly affected large parts of the Kutupalong refugee camp, which has existed since the early 1990s but was expanded on uneven, landslide-prone terrain in 2017, when it became the world’s largest refugee camp for the more than 730,000 members of the Rohingya ethnic group escaping military massacres in Myanmar. Initial reports by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) revealed that more than 21,000 refugees had been "affected" by the flooding, while nearly 4,000 shelters had been damaged or destroyed. [UNHCR]
After repeated lockdowns, recent coronavirus outbreaks and a major fire that killed at least 15 people and left tens of thousands homeless in March [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4], there is a sense among refugees that they are being increasingly forgotten by the world.
India: Assam State deploys 4,000 commandos after border clash leaves at least 6 dead
(lm) India’s northeastern state of Assam announced to deploy 4,000 commandos to guard its border with neighboring Mizoram state after six police officers were killed in a standoff involving hundreds of police and civilians over a long-disputed state border crossing.
More than 80 others, including officials, were injured on July 26 when police from the two states within the Indian union fired at each other. Officials from both sides quickly blamed each other for the bloodshed.
Boundary disputes between Mizoram and Assam are not new. The two sides have argued where exactly the line falls on a nearly 500-square-kilometer strip of land since the 1980s, when Mizoram and three other Indian states were carved out of Assam. The federal government has been trying to mediate a truce between the states since 1994. [BBC]
However, last week’s flare-up over the disputed territory was the first involving heavy casualties in decades, experts said, and raised broader questions about India’s ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). For the clash occurred two days after Amit Shah, India’s powerful Home Minister, and a member of the party, held a meeting with the chief ministers of both states meant to resolve the border dispute there and some elsewhere in India’s northeast. [The New York Times]
Though Assam is led by the BJP and Mizoram by a regional party in coalition with the BJP, the talks with Shah appeared not to defuse tensions, as the fighting on July 26 made all too clear. Following the incident, the home minister reportedly spoke to both chief ministers again and urged them to find an "amicable solution". He also said his government will petition the Supreme Court to ensure "not an inch of reserve forest is encroached upon".[The Straits Times]
India: Supreme Court dealing with Pegasus scandal
(lm) India’s Supreme Court is expected to hear a petition this week filed by two veteran journalists seeking an independent probe into the alleged surveillance of Indian citizens using the ‘Pegasus’ military-grade spyware. [The Indian Express]
An investigation published on July 18 by The Washington Post and 16 other media organizations said the spying tool Pegasus – made and licensed by Israeli surveillance firm NSO – had been used to secretly infiltrate phones belonging to a range of targets, including journalists, activists and political opponents in 50 countries. In India, the list of potential surveillance targets included Rahul Gandhi, India’s main opposition leader; Ashok Lavasa, India’s Chief Election Commissioner who is considered an obstacle to Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party; and at least 40 journalists, among others. [AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]
In their plea, the two journalists said the Central government had not categorically denied obtaining Pegasus licenses to conduct surveillance in its response given in Parliament by newly appointed Minister of Communications and Electronics & Information Technology Ashwani Vaishnaw. They also noted that no steps had been taken by the Modi-led government to ensure a credible and independent investigation. [Hindustan Times]
Maldives: Ruling party askes President Solih to impose state of emergency
(lm) An internal congress of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has passed a motion calling on President Ibrahim Solih to impose a state of emergency to allegedly determine the extent of threat of religious extremism and to allow security services to capture suspected terrorists. [The Times of Addu]
The motion, which was passed at a virtual National Congress meeting on August 1, had been submitted by MDP leader and incumbent Speaker of Parliament Mohamed Nasheed, who is currently receiving medical treatment in the United Kingdom for injuries sustained during a failed assassination attempt in May [see AiR No. 19, May/2021, 2].
Prior to the MDP Congress, police last month concluded its probe into the attack on Nasheed, revealing the identities of ten individuals, including the alleged mastermind. Authorities said the suspects supported jihadists ideology, adding that the investigation was not able not establish direct links between the local cell and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group [see AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]. However, Nasheed – a critic of rising extremism in the Indian Ocean archipelago state – remained unsatisfied with the extent of the inquiry.
With the required minimum of 37 votes, the MDP Congress passed the resolution with the votes of 39 out of 43 members present. Twice as many members, however, stayed away from the virtual session, including President Solih. Noticeably, amongst the dissenting voices was that of Ali Azim, the Majority Leader in Parliament, otherwise considered a supporter of Nasheed. During the MDP Congress, he pointed to the exclusivity of the President’s powers in proclaiming emergency and how the party should not pass such a resolution without involving him. [raajje] [The Edition]
Lawmakers close to President Solih are reportedly concerned that the party could risk de-registration for directing the President in what the Constitution defines as his exclusive executive preserve. [Observer Research Foundation]
The Maldives has gone into a state of emergency on multiple occasions, with the last one announced by then President Abdulla Yameen in 2018 in an escalation of a battle with the country’s Supreme Court. Yameen had earlier defied a Supreme Court ruling to release nine jailed opposition leaders, prompting a wave of protests in the capital, Malé, with angry clashes between police and demonstrators. [AiR (3/2/2018)]
In light of recent developments, it is apparent that battles lines are getting increasingly drawn deeper in what is becoming a fratricidal war of words and nerves between rival factions of the ruling MDP. For Nasheed declared earlier last month that he could no longer align himself politically with his long-time friend Solih, which he accused of reneging on his pledge to address religious extremism. [AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]
Pakistan: Women lawmakers demand public hanging of rapists
(lm) 69 female legislators, both from the ruling party and opposition, have unanimously demanded public hanging of all rapists to curb harassment and abuse of women and children in Pakistan. The group also called for the formation of a parliamentary committee to review reports on rape cases. [Gulf News]
The call for action came comes after the daughter of Pakistan’s former ambassador to South Korea and Kazakhstan was first shot and then slaughtered by a mail acquaintance in the capital Islamabad last month. It was the latest in a recent spate of women killings in the country, renewing attention on the country’s paltry record of addressing violence against women. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]
The series of events triggered nationwide outrage and a debate on the state’s failure to protect women, the culture of impunity, and the reasons behind society’s tendency to curtail women’s independence and inflict pain on them. It also renewed calls for police and politicians to prioritize pursuing justice for victims, notably by strengthening the country’s limited domestic violence laws, the first of which was passed in 2013.
But legislation to tighten protections for women against violence has frequently faced pushback from religious and community leaders. Earlier this month, Parliament failed to pass a bill that seeks to protect women from violence at home, including attacks by their husband. Instead, it asked the Council of Islamic Ideology – a constitutional body responsible for giving legal advice on Islamic issues – to weigh in on the measure.
President Arif Alvi also issued an ordinance to set up special courts for speedy trials of the rape cases and to issue verdicts within four months in December of last year. But the law, which also prohibits the disclosure of the identity of rape victims and will create a national sex offenders’ register, is yet to be approved by Parliament. [AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]
Rights groups have been sharply critical of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and his government, saying he panders to the religious right and excuses the perpetrators of attacks on women. In a wide-ranging interview aired on July 27 Khan said that any person who commits rape was “solely responsible” for the crime and “never the victim”, after he was criticized for blaming a rise in sexual assault cases on how women dress. [Al Jazeera] [Associated Press]
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
Myanmar: Junta forms ‘caretaker’ government with Min Aung Hlaing as Prime Minister
(mt) Myanmar’s ruling State Administrative Council (SAC) announced on August 1, it had become a “caretaker” government, with its current chairman Sen. General Min Aung Hlang taking the title of Prime Minister, exactly six months after the military toppled the country’s elected civilian government. [Reuters]
The move involves not only the creation of a Cabinet to be headed by Min Aung Hlaing and his Deputy, Vice-Senior General Soe Win, but also changes the leadership at the state and regional level. [Myanmar Now]
New cabinets were appointed for the states and regions, which will each include a chief minister, six ministers, and an attorney general. Yangon and Mandalay, the country’s two largest cities, will also have ministries in their respective regional governments, with their mayors acting as ministers. Further, the SAC appointed army officers with the rank of colonel to head each state or region’s ministry of security and border affairs, while police colonels will head the ministries of transportation.
The announcement came after the junta leader earlier the same day repeated his pledge to hold multi-party elections at an unspecified future date. He also promised to lift the state of emergency by August 2023 – extending the timeline given in the aftermath of the military takeover. [The Straits Times 1] [The Guardian]
The commander-in-chief also said his government would accept the dispatch of any special envoy named by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). He also said his government had agreed to select Virasakdi Futrakul, a former Thai Deputy Foreign Minister and veteran diplomat, adding that “for various reasons, the new proposals were released and we could not keep moving onwards." [Bangkok Post] [see also article in this edition]
Prior to the televised address, the junta on July 26 cancelled the results of last November’s general election that the National League for Democracy of deposed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi won in a landslide, claiming the polls were “not free and fair”. According to the military-appointed Union Election Commission, investigations had uncovered more than 11 million cases of fraud in the election [see AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]. [The Irrawaddy] [The Straits Times 2]
Initial reaction to the promise to hold an election was mixed, with anti-coup figures citing Myanmar’s long history of past military regimes that defied popular and international pressure to restore democracy and clung to power for years. [Financial Times] [The Irrawaddy] [Voice of America]
Myanmar: Six months after military takeover, strike holdouts keep up junta defiance
(mt) Myanmar has endured six months of turmoil since the military ousted the civilian Aung San Suu Kyi-led government and ended the country’s decade-old experiment with democracy. But the junta is yet to quell public anger as the country is at risk of becoming a super-spreader COVID-19 state that fuels outbreaks across the region. [Nikkei Asia]
Though street protests against the military takeover have significantly decreased since the regime began its running crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators – killing nearly 1,000 people so far – there is little sign that opponents of military rule have given up the fight.
On the eve of the six-month anniversary of latest military rule in Myanmar, also small protests took place across the city of Mandalay on July 31. Protests were held by student groups and university students reaffirmed their rejection of any opening to negotiate with the junta, asking for a return to civilian rule. [The Straits Times 2]
Moreover, tens of thousands of civil servants and other workers have either been sacked for joining protests or are still on strike in support of a nationwide civil disobedience campaign, in an effort to deny the junta legitimacy, manpower and resources. This has led to disruptions in hospitals, schools, but also in the energy sector where people have stopped paying their bills to the state-owned energy provider, and in tax collection operations as people are refusing to work for the financial benefit of the Tatmadaw. [The Straits Times 1]
On top of the deep political and economic crisis, the country is facing its most severe outbreak of COVID-19 yet. The vaccination campaign has ground to a standstill, testing has collapsed, and government hospitals are barely functioning. Against this backdrop, allegations are growing that from residents and human rights activists that the military government is using the pandemic to consolidate power and crush opposition. [Associated Press] [The Guardian]
Myanmar: Military junta uses disinformation on social media to divide anti-coup opposition forces
(mt) Pro-military social media accounts are disseminating disinformation in an apparent attempt to cause rifts between ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy activists but seem to struggle to break the unity of the anti-coup opposition. [Frontier Myanmar]
As communities increasingly take up arms to protect themselves against the military, alliances with the country’s various ethnic armed groups have emerged as key to any potential long-term success. Over the course of recent months, groups like the Kachin Independence Army, Karenni Army and Karen National Liberation Army have sheltered dissidents, trained would-be revolutionaries, and even fought alongside civilian militias against the junta. [see e.g., AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1]
It is against the backdrop of these deepening partnerships that the military junta launched a coordinated campaign of spreading disinformation on social media, to discourage prospective trainees from entering ethnic-controlled territory.
Specifically, many of these posts viewed accuse the ethnic armed organizations of killing or in some way mistreating their civilian trainees. Other posts leverage on the 1988 uprising events when ethnic groups killed young people who went to them in the hope of gaining training to fight the military power at the time, but some were killed or tortured on suspicion of being military-sent spies.
However, no evidence has been provided so far to support such accusations, and civilians who are now fighting for the People’s Defense Forces trained by various armed groups have denied such allegations. On the contrary, they declared that this time things are different and that the unity between civilians and armed groups represents something never witnessed before in the country. [Frontier Myanmar]
Myanmar rights group complain to OECD over Telenor, M1 deal
(mt) 474 Myanmar-based Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) have filed a complaint with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) against Norwegian state-owned telecommunications company Telenor.
The complaint was submitted to the Amsterdam-based Centre for Research on Multinational Corporations, a not-for-profit group that operates on behalf of CSOs. However, the Myanmar-based rights groups that endorse the complaint have remained anonymous because of what they called “extreme rights abuses” by the country’s military junta since it ousted the government of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi. [Myanmar Now]
The groups allege that Telenor is “irresponsibly” withdrawing from its operations in Myanmar and failed to act in accordance with OECD and United Nations’ principles on business and human rights when it sold its local business to M1 Group for $105m this month. The Lebanese investment conglomerate is known for doing business with corrupted regimes that openly neglect and violate human rights. [Associated Press] [Mizzima]
Of the telecom companies operating in Myanmar, Telenor was generally considered as the most committed to transparency, and human rights in the lead-up to and following the military takeover. The company published junta demands to interrupt services or block access to content before being ordered by the regime to stop doing so. [Financial Times]
This deal could now very easily result in a further deterioration and greater vulnerability of civilians’, anti-regime activists’, and reporters’ freedom who have already been witnessing junta’s close control on mobile communications and an ever more limited internet access.
Only a week ago, journalists and reporters were calling on Norway to take action to prevent its Telecoms company to sell its operations in Myanmar to the shady Lebanese group in the spirit of European and Norwegian value of human rights beyond the dimension of its shareholders’ profit.
UN warned of ‘dire’ COVID-19 situation in Myanmar; junta seeks international support
(mt/lm) During an informal UN Security Council discussion meeting on Myanmar, the United Kingdom’s UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward warned that about half of coup-wracked country’s population of 54 million could become infected with COVID-19 in the next two weeks.
The British envoy emphasized that the country was not only facing a deep political and economic crisis, but also a healthcare one, as many doctors who joined the Civilian Disobedience Movement are unable to work in military hospitals, all the while oxygen and other important medical supplies to cure people infected are lacking across the country. [The Irrawaddy]
The United Kingdom also urged the Council to ensure Resolution 2565, which demands ceasefires in conflict zones to allow the safe delivery of coronavirus vaccines, is respected in Myanmar as the UN estimates that only 40 per cent of the healthcare facilities across the country are still concretely able to function to address the crisis and that at least 260 military-led attacks have been carried out against medical personnel and 67 medical officials detained. [Aljazeera] [Mizzima]
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military junta is seeking help from the international community to tackle the latest surge in coronavirus cases fueled by the highly infectious Delta variant, state-owned media said on July 28.
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing last week reportedly called for more cooperation on prevention, control and treatment of COVID-19, including with fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and "friendly countries", the Global New Light of Myanmar reported, without giving further details. [Reuters]
Specifically, the commander-in-chief was cited as saying that vaccinations needed to be increased, through both donated doses and by developing domestic production, aided by Russia. He also said Myanmar would seek the release of funds from the ASEAN COVID-19 Response Fund. [Frontier Myanmar]
A first batch of 736,000 doses of the Chinese-made Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine arrived in Myanmar on July 22 to help fight a growing outbreak in the border area. China has also supplied more than 10,000 COVID-19 vaccines to the Kachin Independence Army, an ethnic armed organization operating in Myanmar’s far north near China’s southern border, as Beijing seeks to halt an influx of cases from the country. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]
Vietnam: 15th National Assembly concludes first session, grants vast powers to PM to contain pandemic
(ct/lm) Vietnam's 15th National Assembly (NA) wrapped up its first session on July 28 after nine days of sitting, three days earlier than schedule than previously planned due to rising COVID-10 concerns. [VietnamPlus]
Constitutionally, the National Assembly is the highest government organization and the highest-level representative body of the Vietnamese people. Ultimately, however, the ruling Communist Party has great influence over the legislature, after it secured 485 out of 499 seats in elections in May. [AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4]
Significantly, the NA approved a resolution giving the government of re-elected Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh centralized power for swift decision-making, in a bid to bring a spike in coronavirus infections, primarily in the southern region surrounding Ho Chi Minh City, under control.
The prime minister can impose particular communications restrictions and take other measures to prevent the disease from spreading quickly. Moreover, these include yet-to-be-legislated measures, as well as the government's ability to bypass some important phases in the creation of new legal frameworks in order to combat COVID-19. [Nikkei Asia]
These powers are valid until the end of December 31, 2022, and the government must report to the NA on the application of these special measures at the upcoming session.
In addition, lawmakers decided on the number of the members of the NA Standing Committee, organization structure of the government and the number of Cabinet members. They also elected and approved the appointment of 50 high-ranking state leaders and four judges of the Supreme People’s Court.
Vietnam: Civil society to fill in for authorities?
(ct) With civil society groups taking initiative to fight the pandemic, authorities in Vietnam risk becoming marginalized after failing to manage the global health crisis, according to an analysis in The Diplomat. [The Diplomat]
According to the author, Luke Hunt, people are increasingly hesitant to go to hospitals and medical facilities for examinations and treatments following the implementation of social distancing rules. As a consequence, multiple doctors and experts, mainly in Ho Chi Minh City and some other provinces, have joined to offer a free health consultation campaign.
Vietnam has recorded about 115,000 COVID-19 cases and 524 deaths, mostly in the south, with more than 62,000 cases confirmed in Ho Chi Minh city alone. The government’s failure in managing the vaccination rollout, specifically amid the potent Delta variant, have raised concerns. Just 0.4 percent of Vietnam’s 96.5 million people have been fully vaccinated, with 4.5 percent receiving their first jab.
Malaysia: Muhyiddin accused of treason, opposition demand resignation
(nd) Following Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s announcement to revoke the declared state of emergency, he faces calls to resign from both the opposition and UMNO, the biggest party in the ruling coalition.
His critics assert that Muhyiddin committed treason against the king, who said the revocation of the ordinances was done without his consent and therefore ran counter to the federal constitution and the principles of law. The king said he was “very disappointed” with the confusion created. In his response, Muhyiddin asserted the king was informed of his move beforehand and his assent sought.
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim announced he had filed a motion of no confidence against Muhyiddin, claiming he no longer disposed of a majority. In fact, Muhyiddin’s government is built on a razor-thin majority backed by several parties since March 2020. [Jakarta Post] [Reuters] [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2]
Upon the detection of cases of COVID-19 among parliamentarians, Muhyiddin announced to postpone the House’s sitting, which was responded by lawmakers who tried to march into the parliament building on Monday, demanding his resignation. The opposition called the postponement a political move amid ceasing support for his government and challenges to his position. The lawmakers were stopped by the police. [Reuters] [Channel News Asia] [South China Morning Post 3] Most notably in the crowd of protesters over the weekend saw increasing numbers of younger people, signaling a growing level of organization among the youth. [The Diplomat] On Tuesday, Muhyiddin announced the revocation of the state of emergency was not completed and will be debated in parliament. [Malay Mail] According to analysts, the broader growing opposition Muhyiddin faces is likely to end his leadership. [South China Morning Post 4]
Malaysia: Activist charged over Facebook post
(nd) An activist was charged for claiming in a Facebook post that refugees in Malaysia were mistreated and lived in poor conditions. Amnesty International, some 80 NGOs and other rights groups condemned the action and urged the government to “stop all forms of intimidation and threats against human rights defenders” and drop charges “for exercising her constitutional right to freedom of expression.” The activist was charged under the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Act 1998 for “knowingly making and initiating the transmission of offensive communication with intent to hurt other people’s feelings via her Facebook account,” carrying a possible sentence of one year in prison or a fine of up to 50,000 ringgit (U.S. $11,814) or both. Earlier, Malaysia’s Human Rights Commission (Suhakam) had voiced the same issues the activist raised in her post. [Benar News]
Thailand: Media associations criticizing Prime Minister
(nd) In a joint statement, six leading Thai media associations, namely The National Press Council of Thailand, The News Broadcasting Council of Thailand, The Thai Journalists Association, The Thai Broadcast Journalists Association, The Society for Online News Providers and The National Union of Journalists, urged Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha to stop attacking news outlets for what he refers to as fake news about his handling of the pandemic, calling it an official assault on the public’s right to information and free speech.In what they refer to as an effort to intimidate news providers, they referred to Prayuth threatening to take legal action against them for criticizing the administration’s handling of the health crisis. In a social media post, Prayuth ordered agencies to prosecute media workers for the spread of fake news. Criticism on social media by activists, doctors, celebrities and citizens on the government’s vaccination management had recently increased amid the rise in COVID-19 cases. Since March last year, the Emergency Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situations has been used frequently to control news content online. [Benar News 1] On the same day, Prayuth issued an order banning the distribution of "fake news" or information causing public fear. Through that, Internet Service Providers can be obliged to check on IP addresses and suspend services to them. Upon failure of compliance, they can lose their operating license. [Bangkok Post 1] On Monday, media outlets and human rights lawyers asked the Civil Court to void the order and grant a temporary injunction. They argue the order threatens press freedom and is unnecessary since the existing Computer Crime Act covers the areas targeted. [Bangkok Post 2] The order was published in the Royal Gazette and came into effect on Tuesday. [Benar News 2]
Thailand: National Park added to UNESCO list despite rights concerns
(nd) Despite heavy criticism by activists and United Nations human rights experts due to rights abuses against indigenous Karen people, UNESCO has added Thailand’s Kaeng Krachan National Park to its World Heritage List. In a statement last week, UN human rights agency (OHCHR) said there had been no consultation with the community, who was dependent on the traditional use of the land, which also promotes biodiversity. OHCHR, who has been raising these issues since 2019, warned that this decision is setting a precedent for other places with respect to the treatment of indigenous people. Tensions rose when a Karen rights activist went missing in 2014. Offers to relocate by the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation were unsuccessful and villagers were forced to leave. According to OHCHR, the violence escalated in 2021, when over 80 community members were arrested, with 28 of them charged for “encroachment” on their traditional lands in the national park. Karen people are a hill tribe living across Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand. [Radio Free Asia]
Thailand: Protesters to switch to “car mob”, dispersed by police
(nd) On Sunday, pro-democracy protesters took to the streets again, this time in cars and motorcycles, demanding Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to resign. Tooting their horns, protesters expressed their dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the global pandemic. The country’s case numbers and fatalities were on the rise, while the vaccination campaign was criticized as too slow and inefficiently managed. The so-called "car mobs" have developed in an effort to make protests compliant with social distancing measures. The protests lost their momentum after a governmental crackdown on protesters to fight the pandemic. The most recent protesters were again met with tear gas and rubber bullets, causing an outcry among rights groups and urging the government to comply with UN rules of engagement on the use of nonlethal force. The next rally is scheduled for coming Saturday. [Nikkei Asia] [Coconuts Bangkok]
Indonesia: Abuse of disabled Papuan by Air Force members
(nd) President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo was urged to apologize following criticism on an action by two members of the Indonesian Air Force (TNI AU) members against a Papuan. A video footage showed two Air Force members tackling and pressing down a mute Papuan, stepping on his head. A TNI AU spokesman apologized and announced consequences for the members. [Tempo] [Jakarta Globe]
Indonesia: Residents in Lombok claim abuse by construction project
(nd) Residents on Lombok Island claim they have been threatened and not received fair compensation in relation to the Mandalika Special Economic Zone, a multi-billion-dollar project partly funded by the China-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). It is part of a program introduced by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in 2016 as “10 new Balis,” to attract more tourists. Reportedly, hundreds of police, soldiers, and the local government’s security personnel have blocked the road leading to the neighborhood, as well as cut their access to drinking water. Additionally, UN rights experts in April urged the Indonesian government to respect resident’s rights, who have been subjects of land grabs, forced evictions, and intimidation. Advocates have identified gaps in AIIB’s environmental and social framework system leading to human rights violations, raising fears similar situations could occur across Southeast Asia. AIIB was founded in 2016 and is controlled by about 26 percent of voting shares by China. [Radio Free Asia]
Philippines: Faustino appointed next Chief of Staff of Armed Forces
(nd) Lt. Gen. Jose Faustino was appointed as the next Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) by President Rodrigo Duterte, replacing Gen. Cirilito Sobejana. Faustino, however, is set to retire in November, prompting Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana earlier to hint that a “higher position” was waiting for Faustino. Currently, Faustino is the commander of the Joint Task Force for peace and security in Mindanao. [News Info]
Cambodia: Opposition figure convicted, US sanctions for officials
(nd) A former commune council of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was convicted of “incitement to commit a felony” for participating in weekly protests for the release of other arrested opposition party members. The so-called “Friday Wives” are a group of women who have been staging weekly protests demanding the release of their husbands, all CNRP members who were jailed on incitement charges for opposing Prime Minster and CPP leader Hun Sen. The Supreme Court dissolved the CNRP in November 2017, following the arrest of its leader Kem Sokha, which preluded a broader crackdown on NGOs and independent media.
On the same day, US House of Foreign Affairs Committee passed the Cambodia Democracy Act to sanction Cambodian officials for undermining democracy. Last November, a group of senators publicly urged the Trump administration to impose targeted sanctions against CPP leader Hun Sen, who is in power since 1985, under the Global Magnitsky Act. [Radio Free Asia]
Cambodia: Court to sentence opposition activists on incitement charges
(nd) Nine activists, including a lawmaker from the outlawed opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) were sentenced under incitement charges to prison terms ranging from 12 to 20 months. The convicted were rallying in front of the Chinese Embassy in October last year trying to submit petitions to the embassies of China, France, and the United States, arguing Cambodia had violated the democratic principles set forth in the Paris Peace Agreement.
One of the defendants complained about a violation of detainees’ rights, lack of treatment for ill prisoners, and verbal abuses by guards, which was ignored by the judge. Civil society groups condemned the verdict, arguing the peaceful protest in front of the embassy was covered by their freedom of expression.
The CNRP was dissolved in 2017 by Cambodia’s Supreme Court, preluding a wider crackdown on NGOs and the independent media, enabling Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party to win the country’s 2018 general elections. [Radio Free Asia]
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
United States pulls India closer amid challenges in Afghanistan, China
(lm) The United States will give India $25 million to vaccinate against the coronavirus, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced last week during a two-day stop in New Delhi as part of the Biden administration’s effort to strengthen ties with a diplomatic partner wedged between two countries that mark some of the United States’ most notable geopolitical challenges, Afghanistan and China. [South China Morning Post] [The Straits Times 1] [The Washington Post]
Blinken’s visit to New Delhi was the second high profile visit of a member from the Biden administration, following on a visit to India by US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin in March [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. Later last week, Blinken travelled to Kuwait to discuss regional issues including Iran and the ongoing conflict in Yemen.
China loomed large as Blinken and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar jointly reiterated a commitment to flesh out the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a nascent strategic coalition comprising of four democracies that is increasingly seen as a US-led effort to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Hailing Washington’s relationship with India as one of the “most consequential” in the world, Blinken also announced that the United States will give India $25 million to vaccinate against the coronavirus.
Regarding India, Blinken described New Delhi and Washington as largely in lockstep on the need to find a peaceful solution to the Afghan conflict and offered an assurance that his country will remain “very much engaged in Afghanistan.”
The Indian government has been wary of a full military takeover by the Taliban, believing that this is likely to pose a threat to its security and strategic interests, as it may shift the balance of power in the region towards its nemesis Pakistan and its regional competitor China. [see article in this edition]
Significantly, however, Blinken used an earlier meeting with civil society leaders to express what might be seen as a veiled concern about a democratic backsliding and erosion of civil liberties under Indian Prime Minister Modi’s government: “We view Indian democracy as a force for good in defense of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said, adding that the United States would “also recognize that every democracy, starting with our own, is a work in progress.” [Deutsche Welle] [The Straits Times 2]
Last month, Washington urged New Delhi to "respect the vital role of human rights activists in healthy democracies", following the death of a 84-year-old rights activist and Jesuit priest, who had been detained for nine months without trial under Indian anti-terrorism laws. [AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1]
ASEAN foreign ministers discuss special envoy, aid to Myanmar
Foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met virtually on August 2 for their annual gathering with the selection of a special envoy for Myanmar and finalizing an emergency plan to help control a coronavirus outbreak that many fear is spiraling out of control high on the agenda. [Associated Press] [Kyodo News]
The meeting was held a day after Myanmar's military leader Min Aung Hlaing said that his government would accept the dispatch of the special envoy agreed in April by ASEAN to mediate among the parties and find a peaceful resolution to the crisis in the country. [see article in this edition]
The dispatch of the special envoy was one of five items agreed upon at an extraordinary ASEAN summit held in Indonesia in late April to discuss the troubles unfolding in Myanmar. The so-called Five-Point Consensus also included the need for the cessation of violence; the delivery of humanitarian aid through the ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance; and the beginning of political dialogue to end the crisis. [AiR No. 17, April/2021, 4]
Of the three original nominees for the ASEAN special envoy, Min Aung Hlaing said, his government had agreed to select Virasakdi Futrakul, a former Thai Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Yangon, adding that “for various reasons, the new proposals were released and we could not keep moving onwards."
Other nominees include Hassan Wirajuda, a former Indonesian Foreign Minister, and Razali Ismail, a Malaysian who in the 2000s served as the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to Myanmar and played a pivotal role in releasing Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in May 2002 [see AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2].
People familiar with the discussions said the 10-member bloc wants to designate Brunei Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof as special envoy to Myanmar, but are waiting on approval from Myanmar’s military regime. Yusof, who is currently serving as ASEAN’s Rotating Chair, had previously visited the country on June 3 for talks with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]. [Al Jazeera]
In their virtual meeting, foreign ministers of the 10-nation bloc were also looking to finalize a plan to bring in medicine and medical equipment to Myanmar through the regional bloc’s disaster-response center with the military leaders’ approval. They were also expected to announce some progress in four years of painstakingly slow negotiations with China to craft a “code of conduct” aimed at preventing conflict in the disputed South China Sea.
Chinese embassy blasts US Defence Secretary Austin for ‘attack and smear’ in Singapore lecture
(lm) The Chinese Embassy in Singapore on July 29 cut up US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin for his comments during a lecture in the city state last week on Taiwan, the South China Sea and Uygur Muslims that it deemed an “attack and smear” on Beijing. [South China Morning Post]
Austin, who had arrived in Singapore earlier last week for his first visit since taking up his post, was speaking on July 27 at an event organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, when he outlined his vision of “integrated deterrence.”
In his lecture, the US official devoted a substantial amount of time to addressing Washington’s relations with Beijing, saying that while his country sought “constructive, stable” ties with China, it “will not flinch” if its interests are threatened. The Pentagon chief, however, couched the somewhat conciliatory comments by listing various concerns including Beijing’s hardened Taiwan policy; its claim to the vast majority of the South China Sea; and the treatment of Uygur Muslims in Xinjiang. [Defense News]
Two days thereafter, the Chinese Embassy in Singapore responded to Austin’s speech with a statement, in which it claimed the US official had "distorted facts and created falsehoods" to serve US geopolitical goals. The Embassy also claimed Austin had played up the "so-called China threat" in an attempt to drive a wedge between China and its neighbors. [The Straits Times]
China hosts Taliban delegation, expects group to play ‘important’ role in Afghanistan peace talks
China offered a high-profile public stage to the Taliban on July 28, declaring that it expected the insurgent group rapidly retaking large parts of Afghanistan would play “an important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction” of the country. [Reuters]
Foreign Minister Wang Yi began two days of consultation with a delegation of nine Taliban leaders in the northeastern Chinese city of Tianjin, significantly raising the group’s international stature at a time when the group’s military ascendancy in Afghanistan has grown. Wang also said that he hoped the Taliban would crack down on the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Muslim separatist group founded by militant Uighurs in China's Xinjiang province, which he called a "direct threat to China's national security".
While the Taliban have a political office in Qatar where peace talks are taking place, they have been on a regional diplomatic blitz over the last month, visiting Tehran, Moscow and the Turkmenistan capital Ashgabat for talks with officials. [The New York Times]
However, the visit to Tianjin was the Taliban’s most significant diplomatic coup yet. For Chinese officials have met with the insurgents’ envoys before, including a meeting in Beijing in 2019, but not at such a high level and in such a public way. The delegation, led by Taliban negotiator and co-founder of the group Mullah Baradar Akhund, was also meeting China's special envoy for Afghanistan.
Earlier this month, the Taliban said they welcome Beijing as a “friend” to Afghanistan and expressed their hope to quickly engage in talks with China about investing in reconstruction work. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]
New Chinese ambassador arrives in Washington amidst worsening China-US ties
(lm) China dispatched its new ambassador to the United States last week — Qin Gang, a diplomat whose record of vigorously contesting Western criticism suggests that Beijing is bracing for a period of extended tensions with Washington. Qin arrived in the United States on July 28 to fill the post vacated last month by long-time ambassador Cui Tiankai, who has passed the retirement age for senior Chinese ambassadors. [Bloomberg] [The New York Times] [The Straits Times]
Unlike nearly all of China’s ambassadors to Washington since the 1980s, Qin Gang has never specialized in dealing with the United States, nor has he been posted there previously. But as the head of the information office of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, and later the chief of protocol, he appears to have won the trust of President Xi Jinping and has regularly accompanied him during trips abroad and in meetings with foreign leaders. [The Diplomat]
In his new role, Qin will instantly become China’s most important overseas envoy, charged with navigating an increasingly thorny and politically charged relationship. He will most likely convey to Washington that President Xi expects his country to be treated as a great power, reflecting a confidence that stems in part from China’s success in controlling the coronavirus epidemic. But in his first remarks in the US Qin struck a cordial note, saying that “the door of US-China relations, which is already open, cannot and should not be closed”. [QUARTZ]
Chinese diplomats showed that emboldened posture last week in rare high-level talks in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin with the Deputy Secretary of State Wendy R. Sherman [see AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4], and in March, when they publicly sparred with Biden administration officials in an unusually rancorous opening encounter in Anchorage [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4].
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden still has not installed an ambassador in Beijing. Former Ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns has been seen as a favorite for the post.
Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for greater focus on military development
(lm) In a speech given two days prior to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s 94th anniversary, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for a greater focus on national defense and the military. [South China Morning Post]
The remarks were delivered during a study session of the 25-member Politburo, the decision-making body of the Communist Party of China (CPC). In his recently published analysis, Brian Hart notes that “Politburo group study sessions […] provide unique insights into the interests and priorities of the [CPC]’s elite,” and thus, allow to identify “significant changes in the party leadership’s priorities”. Interestingly, President Xi has held more than twice the number of study sessions focused on military and security affairs than his predecessor Hu Jintao, according to Hart. [The Jamestown Foundation]
Thus, Xi’s most recent remarks assumes added significance, not least because they come at a time when the country is facing heightened security risks: On China’s western borders, the withdrawal of American and NATO combat forces from Afghanistan has led to a resurgence of the Taliban and instability in the region, which Beijing fears could give Uygur separatists a base from which to conduct attacks in its Xinjiang province. [see also article in this edition]
To the east, tensions are growing as the United States and its allies conduct more naval operations on waters China claims as its own. On July 30, US Marine Corps jets were pictured on the British Royal Navy's aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, which is currently leading the UK’s Carrier Strike Group 21 on its maiden visit to the region. The 28-week deployment to Asia assumes added significance, for it marks the largest concentration of maritime and air power to leave Britain in a generation [see AiR No. 26, June/2021, 5]. [CNN]
Taiwan: Ministry of National Defense to design new armored vehicle
(nds) On July 31, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense announced plans to develop a 105 mm gun combat vehicle instead of the 120mm gun initially selected in 2020. The 105 mm gun is still the most widely used gun for armored vehicles globally. The equipment is supposed to be very mobile, light, and able to respond to incidents, and will be deployed to the joint barracks to carry out front-line strikes and anti-armor missions. [Taiwan News 1] For several months, the Taiwanese authorities have been heavily modernizing their military equipment in the face of an increasingly threatening China. Since last September, Beijing has intensified its military tactics in the Taiwan Strait by conducting frequent military exercises and patrols near the island and regularly sending aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), the latest of which occurred on July 28, marking the 14th intrusion in July. [Taiwan News 2]
US Secretary of Defense Austin visits Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines to fortify regional ties
(ct/nd/lm) US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was on a Southeast Asia swing last week, meeting with leaders in Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines, in an effort to rebuild ties after monthslong absence by US top officials in a region that has been aggressively courted by China. [U.S. Department of Defense]
Austin’s visit was the first by a US Cabinet member to Southeast Asia since President Biden took office in January. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman visited Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand in late May and early June and Japan, South Korea and Mongolia last month before heading to China for talks that appeared to do little to ease deeply strained ties.
The choices assume added significance, because among the 10 countries of Southeast Asia, those are the three that are most strategically aligned with the United States and most supportive of a robust American presence in the region. They are also the three in which some attention from Washington is likely to deliver concrete progress in the short to medium term, according to analysts. [The New York Times] [Center For Strategic & International Studies]
The centerpiece of the secretary’s time in Singapore was his speech at a lecture organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank. It was intended to reassure allies and partners that Washington was still invested in the region after not having showed high-level diplomatic attention for half a year. [see also article in this edition].
Austin’s visit to Singapore was also aimed at making progress on some crucial bilateral partnerships. While meeting with his counterpart Ng Eng Hen, the two reaffirmed the importance of the US-Singapore defense relationship, which is critical to Washington’s naval presence, in particular.
Both sides also reaffirmed previous agreements, including the 2019 renewal of the pact that allows American access to Singaporean facilities, and plans for Singapore Air Force F-16s and F-35s to train in Guam. Significantly, the two top officials said they would continue “discussions on U.S. force posture initiatives,” a sign that the city-state is open to additional US access in the future. [The Straits Times]
In Vietnam on July 29, Austin sought to nudge forward security ties that have been steadily deepening amid shared concern about China's activities in the South China Sea.
He arrived in the midst of the crippling COVID-19 pandemic and just days after Washington shipped 3 million doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to Vietnam. The trip also came just days after the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative formally closed a Section 301 investigation into alleged currency manipulation by Vietnam [see AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]. This followed a deal between the US Treasury Department and State Bank of Vietnam, putting to rest a years-long sticking point in the relationship and removing the risk of sanctions. [Office of the United States Trade Representative] [Voice of America]
Austin met with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and President Nguyen Xuan Phuc to discuss cooperation on COVID-19. Together with is Vietnamese counterpart, he also signed a memorandum of understanding that expands support to Vietnam’s efforts to locate and identify Vietnamese killed or missing during the Vietnam War.
After leaving Vietnam, Austin headed to the Philippines and scored a significant success when its President Rodrigo Duterte restored a pact governing the movement of US troops in and out of the country, something strategically vital for Washington’s efforts to counter China. [The Hill] [see article below]
Philippines reverses course, renews key military agreement with the United States
(nd) Following months of uncertainty, the Philippines have walked back on a decision to end a crucial military agreement with the United States, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana announced on July 30 during a visit by her US counterpart Lloyd Austin. [Channel News Asia] [France24] [USNI News]
The Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), originally signed in 1988, facilitates the rotation of thousands of US troops in and out of the Philippines for counterterrorism cooperation, disaster relief operations, and hundreds of training engagements each year. It also makes possible the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), a 2014 deal under which US forces are to gain access and fund upgrades to Philippine military bases for, among other things, a strengthened deterrent against Chinese aggression. [CNN]
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte had previously vowed to terminate the agreement, but had repeatedly pushed back the expiration date, most recently in June after months of negotiations between the two sides [see AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3]. Many analysts had interpreted the about-face as a sign that the Philippine leader was worried about China’s growing military assertiveness.
Indonesia, US to hold joint drills
(nd) Indonesia and the US started joint drills on island defense on Sunday with over 4,500 service members, making it the largest exercise ever conducted by the two countries. It is part of the annual Garuda Shield exercises and conducted on Sumatra, Sulawesi, and Kalimantan for two weeks. A similar exercise is scheduled in the US later this year, following the beginning of the construction of a joint maritime training center in Batam, in the Strait of Malacca. Such efforts are seen by Indonesia as deterrence against Chinese aggression in the disputed sea, recently referred to by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during his address in Singapore as to have "no basis in international law." China is Indonesia’s second largest trading partner, with lately partnerships between their provinces having increased in various sectors, and infrastructure projects as well as the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) as part of the Belt and Road Initiative won ground, deepening economic ties. Likewise, China has donated vaccination jabs. [The Diplomat] Still, Indonesia frequently clashed with China on its military assertiveness in the South China Sea. Both countries held joint naval exercises last May in an effort of Indonesia to remain a balance between the two super powers. In July, the Indonesian navy conducted a large drill in the southern part of the South China Sea. [Nikkei Asia]
US Secretary of State Blinken participates in five ASEAN-related virtual ministerial meetings this week
(mt/lm) US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting virtually with his counterparts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week, as the Biden administration seeks to show the region is a priority while also addressing the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. These will be the U.S.-ASEAN, East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, Mekong-U.S. Partnership, and Friends of the Mekong ministerial meetings. [U.S. Department of State] [Reuters]
Both sides held their first encounter via videoconference on July 14, after Blinken had to cancel the initial meeting over technical difficulties after keeping his counterparts waiting. During the virtual meeting last month, Blinken urged his counterparts to take “immediate action” on the so-called “Five-Point Consensus” reached by the bloc’s leaders in earlier in April and appoint a special envoy to Myanmar. [AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]
The virtual encounters come after the Biden administration in its early days was seen as paying little attention to the region of more than 600 million people, focusing instead on the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a loose strategic coalition comprising of France, the United States, India and Australia. Still, analysts say a vital US engagement cannot only rely on military considerations but will also have to provide an economic perspective
But Washington has failed to introduce any large economic projects in the region after the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement was nixed by the previous US administration in 2017. It has also excluded itself from one of the world’s biggest trade pacts – the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which comprises of fifteen Asia-Pacific economies and has been enthusiastically embraced by China [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [The New York Times]
Against this backdrop, US top US officials have made a string of visits to the region in recent months: Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman visited Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand in May and June [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines this week; and Vice President Kamala Harris is set to visit Singapore and Vietnam next month. [see articles in this edition]
Vice President Harris to visit Vietnam, Singapore, as United States court Southeast Asia
(ct/lm/nd) US Vice President will travel to Singapore and Vietnam next month to fortify regional ties with Southeast Asian nations, as the Biden administration looks to counter Chinese influence in the region and globally. [The Hill]
Harris will be the first US Vice President to visit Vietnam, and the highest-ranking official from the Biden administration to visit the Indo-Pacific, and Asia overall. Importantly, the announcement of her trip comes just days after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s own trip to Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam, which focused on offering support to Southeast Asia nations as territorial rifts with China unfold. [see article in this edition]
The White House did not provide details on the dates of the trip. But analysts consider Harris’ trip the latest in a series of diplomatic efforts aimed at emphasizing Washington's renewed commitment to Southeast Asia, given US President Biden’s focus on Asia as a linchpin of his foreign policy agenda.
Despite China and Vietnam’s communist ties, Hanoi has emerged as a key American partner and a vocal opponent of Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. However, members of the Biden administration have said the US’ relationship with Vietnam will remain limited until the country makes progress on human rights issues. [Reuters]
The vice president’s visit affirms the strength of the relationship between the US and Singapore, according to reporting in the Business Times. Harris will meet with Singapore leaders to discuss ways to cooperate in areas such as defense, digital trade and cyber security. [CNBC]
Russian state-owned news agency to show Taiwan's flag on the Olympic medal table
(nds) During their coverage of the Olympics, Russian press agency RIA Novosti depicted the Taiwanese flag. Athletes must be part of a national Olympic committee attached to an independent state recognized by the international community and the International Olympic Committee to participate in the Olympic Games. However, there are a few exceptions, such as Taiwan, which carries the Olympic rings instead of their flag because of China's claims. Due to their state-backed doping program, Russian athletes are competing under the acronym ROC (Russian Olympic Committee) and a modified flag, a possible motivation for this move. The governmental run news outlet, which therefore respects the "One China" principle, has maintained the name of Chinese Taipei to designate Taiwan on the Olympic medal table, nevertheless. [Taiwan News 1]
Italy's most widely read newspaper used the name and flag of Taiwan in its Olympics coverage. Despite China's attempts to use the Olympics to assert its claim of ownership over Taiwan, there has been a growth in international news agencies using the Taiwanese flag. [Taiwan News 2] Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives passed the "Department of State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Appropriations Act 2022", a foreign assistance bill, with a vote of 217 to 212. One of the bill's amendments prohibits using funds to create, acquire or display maps depicting Taiwan as part of the People's Republic of China. The five Republican representatives who introduced this amendment argued that Taiwan is sovereign, democratic, and independent of communist China. Moreover, they declared that the principle of one China is misleading. [Taipei Times]
The bill is a harbinger of stronger ties between Washington and Taipei. [ See also AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2] Such encounters have become more frequent since the US State Department updated its guidelines for exchanges with Taiwan in April, encouraging more contact between US and Taiwanese officials. Meanwhile, China's mission in Geneva criticized the US for the most recent meeting in Geneva, asking it to "cease all official interaction with the Taiwan region" and respect the "one China" principle.[Taiwan News]
Taiwan to investigate ex-deputy defense minister over espionage allegations
(nd) Taiwanese authorities announced to investigate a former deputy defense minister and other serving and retired military officers over contacts with an alleged Chinese spy. According to a source, the suspects were being used in "penetration efforts" by Beijing, reportedly through a Hong Kong-based representative of the Chinese Central Military Commission, dining with the suspect and organizing a trip to Hong Kong. The former deputy defense minister said he had paid for the trip and always strictly followed rules on secrecy. The Defense Ministry had "actively reinforced anti-espionage education" in an effort to counter “infiltration by enemy spies and protecting national security" according to a statement. The investigation in the most high-level case of suspected spying and comes amid China stepping up pressure on Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory. [Reuters] Just recently, Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu highlighted the threat that China poses to Taiwan, pointing to frequent incursions of Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and China’s destabilizing actions in the Taiwan Strait, challenging peace and order in the Indo-Pacific. Parallelly, Wu called the US Taiwan's “most staunch ally and strategic partner” and emphasized the importance of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), US-Japan summit, US-South Korea summit, EU-Japan summit, and G7 Foreign and Development Ministers’ Meeting, demonstrating the global nature of the issue. [Taiwan News]
Lithuania, Taiwan to move closer
(nd) Following a series of small diplomatic incidents, including a data leak in September revealing a Chinese company gathered information on over 500 prominent Lithuanian citizens, the Baltic nation grew increasingly wary towards China.Lithuania pulled out of China’s "17+1" cooperation bloc with Central and Eastern Europe in spring last year, a prelude to establishing closer ties with Taiwan through vaccination donations and an agreement to open mutual representative offices, naming it somewhat provocatively "Taiwan representative office”. In the following October, a center-right coalition came to power promoting a "values-based foreign policy" under Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, the grandson of a prominent post-Soviet independence leader.
According to political observers, with respect to viable economic relations, Lithuania aims to primarily cooperate with democracies for their higher level of predictability.It remains unlikely that Lithuania’s dropout will trigger a wave of similar action. Since it triggered a discussion, though, there is a possibility of countries to slowly drift away or send lower-level envoys.After all, the majority of Chinese direct investment in infrastructure was made to the Western Balkans, and outside the region, mostly to Poland and Hungary. Total Chinese investment in Lithuania was calculated about 82 million euros in 2020. With China facing increased criticism for its growing aggression — both NATO’s counterintelligence reports taking note, and the EU including the issue in its Indo-Pacific Strategy — Taiwan gained momentum to expand presence in Europe, most notably with its praised management of the current health crisis. The changing views of China in Europe, also in connection with the situation in Hong Kong, were insofar favorable for Taiwan: According to researchers, this led to more frequent exchanges with respect to medical supplies and vaccines during the pandemic. Amid that, Lithuania’s move is the most pronounced and a sign to Brussel of remaining very independent domestic policies. [Nikkei Asia]
Japan calls for greater attention to ‘survival of Taiwan’
(lm) Japan’s Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi has called on the international community to pay greater attention to the “survival of Taiwan” as he warned that China’s military build-up was enveloping the island, the Financial Times reported. [Financial Times, $]
Kishi, the younger brother of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is known for his close relations with politicians in Taipei and is regarded as both a conservative and a hawk on China.
His comments mark a further uptick in rhetoric after Japan broke with years of precedent and for the first time directly linked Taiwan’s security with its own and with regional stability more widely, in its latest defense white paper, released last month. This followed even firmer language from Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, who said earlier last month that Japan “would have to defend Taiwan” alongside the United States if it was invaded by China. He later retracted the statement. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]
China reacted with predictable fury to the statements, both through official channels and its more bellicose media outlets. In a video aired earlier this month – reportedly with approval of the Chinese Communist Party – Beijing warned that it would use nuclear bombs against Tokyo, if the country were to intervene intervene in a future Taiwan conflict. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]
China calls on Berlin as German warship begins six-months deployment to Indo-Pacific region
(nd/lm) China said on July 3 it would not consider a port call request from a German warship to stop at Shanghai until Berlin until Berlin “clarifies its intentions” in sending the frigate through the South China Sea. [South China Morning Post]
The frigate “Bayern” began its mission to the Indo-Pacific region on July 2 – the first such deployment in almost two decades – as part of efforts by Berlin to show an “increased presence” in the region and demonstrate solidarity with allies and “like-minded” partners.
The six-month deployment follows the government’s overall Indo-Pacific strategy, approved almost a year ago, for dealing with regional challenges. For Germany, that has entailed a delicate dance around the subject of China, which government leaders believe is a would-be adversary in the security arena and an ally in other domains, like fighting climate change.
The sending of the frigate is a sign Berlin is getting more involved in the geopolitically central and disputed region, while at the same time emphasizing a non-confrontational approach, using the usual trade routes and asking permission to visit the Shanghai port. [Naval News]
However, Beijing on Tuesday said it would not consider a port call request from the German frigate until Berlin “clarifies its intentions” in sailing through the South China Sea.
According to Germany’s Ministry of Defense, the frigate will dock in the ports of Germany's allied partners and participate in joint exercises with Australia, Singapore, Japan and the United States. It will also help enforce UN sanctions on North Korea; and support the NATO and EU missions Operation Sea Guardian and Atalanta, respectively. As a show-of-presence and training mission, the ship’s deployment does not fall under the country’s laws requiring parliamentary approval for military operations. [Deutsche Welle] [JANES]
North Korea criticizes US-South Korean exercises
(nds) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un criticized US military drills at an unprecedented "workshop" for commanders and political officers of the Korean People's Army. The workshop was held as part of a significant military event from July 24 to 27. Kim called the US military forces hostile and accused them of systematically expanding their capability to strike North Korea pre-emptively. [Yonhap News Agency 1] South Korea and the US regularly hold military exercises, mainly in spring and summer, to which North Korea has long responded with criticism. [Channel News Asia 1]
On August 1, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister said the combined exercise could undermine efforts to improve inter-Korean relations at a crucial time when long-cut cross-border communication lines have been restored. [Channel News Asia 2] [Yonhap News Agency 1] Joint exercises between the US and the Republic of Korea have been scaled back for much of Trump's presidency, first to facilitate diplomacy and then because of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, US President Joe Biden is unlikely to compromise on the joint exercises, according to Wang Son-Taek, an associate researcher at the Seoul-based think tank Yeosijae. Defense Minister Suh Wook and his US counterpart Lloyd Austin on July 30 reaffirmed their commitment to a strong combined readiness posture. However, according to the defense ministry, the South Korean and American authorities have yet to decide when and how to conduct their annual summer exercise. [N.K. News]
South Korea to re-approve requests to send private humanitarian aid to North Korea
(nds) The Ministry of Unification announced that it would approve requests to send private humanitarian aid to North Korea for the first time since last September. According to national law, aid organizations must receive approval from the Ministry of Unification before transferring items to the North. However, the ministry no longer allowed the transfer of aid from North Korean soldiers who had killed a South Korean who ended up in North Korean waters. [N.K. News 1]
North Korea might reject these humanitarian aid supplies because leader Kim Jong Un had decided that the country would not accept aid from abroad, fearing that the deliveries could carry the COVID-19 virus. [N.K. News 2] This move by the Ministry of Unification follows the reopening of the telephone line between the two Koreas. South Korean officials are reportedly seeking to set up virtual discussions or "safe face-to-face meetings" as soon as possible to move forward with the stalled talks against the backdrop of the pandemic. [N.K. News 3]
US Justice Department Seizes Singaporean Oil Tanker for Violating North Korea Sanctions
(nds) On July 30, the US Department of Justice announced the seizure of a 2,734-ton oil tanker allegedly owned by a Singaporean national who was using it to make shipments of petroleum products to North Korea. In March 2020, the Cambodian authorities had seized the tanker under the US mandate and had held it since then. However, a New York court ruled that the US could control the seized property. The Singaporean owner has not yet been arrested. North Korea is subject to UN and other international sanctions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. For this reason, Pyongyang has resorted to illegal means to circumvent the consequences of international sanctions. North Korea has rebuffed US calls for a return to negotiations on its weapons programs and has long called for lifting sanctions that hamper its economy. Relations between the two countries have become more tense since US President Joe Biden took office. [South China Morning Post]
On Tuesday, South Korea lawmakers said North Korea demands international sanctions banning most importantly its metal exports and imports of refined fuel and other necessities to be lifted as a requirement to restart denuclearization talks with the US. The North Korean economy is left battered amid the pandemic, experiencing its biggest contraction in 23 years. Despite recent diplomatic inter-Korean improvements, the US insists on North Korea to give up its missile program to establish relations. The UN, US, Japan and South Korea have issued sanctions on North Korea, which are not binding for other countries. North Korea has continued its nuclear and ballistic program despite sanctions, has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006 and test-fired missiles capable of hitting the US. [Voice of America]
Australian national convicted of trying to sell North Korean missile parts
(nds) In a statement, the Australian Federal Police announced it had sentenced an Australian national of South Korean origin to more than three years in prison. The convicted had attempted to help sell North Korean missile parts and other goods in violation of UN sanctions.
The defendant initially denied the charges but pleaded guilty to violating the sanctions in February by brokering the sale of Pyongyang's weapons and related equipment in exchange for petroleum products and attempting to export coal from North Korea to Indonesia. [ South China Morning Post]
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