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Fed Independence Reaches Its Moment of Truth

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

The Supreme Court is poised to decide whether President Trump can remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s board in a case that economists and former Fed officials say threatens to severely erode decades of central bank independence. Leading U.S. economic policymakers over the last 35 years, including every living former chair of the Fed, urged the Supreme Court in a friend-of-the-court brief yesterday to allow Cook to remain in her job as she challenges Trump’s attempt to fire her. Meanwhile, the latest government economic revision shows the U.S. economy was growing at a much stronger clip this spring than previously realized, powered by consumer spending.

 

Top News

Supreme Court Weighs Cook’s Fate

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook, a member of the central bank’s board of governors. PHOTO: Al Drago/Bloomberg News

The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to overturn lower court rulings that said Lisa Cook could stay on the job as a Fed governor while she challenges the White House’s attempt to fire her. A ruling in favor of the White House wouldn’t necessarily be the final word on the matter. But analysts said it would be a crucial development that opens the door for Trump to replace other Fed governors, flattening 90 years of legal precedent that insulated central bank officials from political control.

  • Lisa Cook Tells Supreme Court the Fed’s Independence Is at Stake
  • Former Fed Chairs Urge Supreme Court to Protect Fed Independence
 

U.S. Economy

Economy Had a Strong Spring, Latest Revision Shows

The government now estimates gross domestic product increased at a 3.8% seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate in the second quarter, up from an initial estimate of 3% made in July and a later update to 3.3%. That was the strongest quarterly growth in nearly two years.

Trump to Impose New Tariffs on Pharma, Big Trucks

President Trump announced many new tariffs Thursday, including a large one on drugs from pharmaceutical companies that aren’t building plants in the U.S. “Starting October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America,” Trump posted on his social-media site, Truth Social, without providing details.

  • Trump Takes Aim at Chip Makers With New Plan to Throttle Imports

U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

The number of Americans who newly filed for unemployment benefits dropped last week, the Labor Department said Thursday, a reassuring sign amid growing unease about the job market.

Home Sales Fell in August, Slowed by High Home Prices

Sales of existing homes dipped in August, after high prices kept sales in check despite easing mortgage rates. Home sales were down 0.2% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. 

 

Key Developments Around the World

Bank of Mexico Makes 10th Straight Interest-Rate Cut

The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate to a three-year low Thursday as expected and said further reductions are possible, while it still sees inflation returning to its target next year.

Europe’s Right-Wing Populists Swerve Left on the Economy

Right-wing populists have a new strategy to woo European voters frustrated with cash-strapped governments: Veer left. From Sweden to Greece and Austria, parties that for years favored a small state, low taxes, free trade and deregulation are now calling for higher welfare benefits, subsidies and protectionism—often alongside pro-market positions.

Bank Indonesia Intervenes 'Boldly' Amid Rupiah Weakness

Bank Indonesia is intervening "boldly" in financial markets and reiterated its commitment to maintaining the stability of the rupiah, following recent weakness in the currency. "Bank Indonesia is using all available instruments boldly," to stabilize the rupiah, including intervening in the domestic market through spot instruments, secondary government bond purchases and interventions in overseas markets, Gov. Perry Warjiyo said Friday. (Dow Jones Newswires)

 

Financial Regulation

Unusual Trading Ahead of Crypto-Treasury Deals Draws Scrutiny

Financial regulators have examined unusual trading patterns in the shares of companies that sought to make buying cryptocurrencies their core corporate strategy, people familiar with the matter said.

 

Forward Guidance

Friday (all times ET)

9 a.m.: PIIE discussion with FRB Richmond President Thomas Barkin
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
1 p.m.: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speech on 'Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making'

Monday

10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
1 p.m.: SEC-CFTC Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Opportunities
1:30 p.m.: FRB St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at Washington University in St. Louis event
1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks at Rochester Institute of Technology
6 p.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates conversation with Delta Air Lines CEO

 

Research

First-Half Average U.S. Growth Looks Less Impressive Than 2Q

With the unexpected upward revision on 2Q GDP growth to 3.8% from 3.3% annualized pace, Santander's Stephen Stanley recommends looking at the 1H average, including the 1Q's 0.6% contraction. "By that filter, real GDP averaged 1.6% annualized, real domestic demand grew by 1.9%, essentially in line with the Fed's estimate of long-run potential," he writes. Stanley calls attention to "a boost of around $300 billion to personal income," meaning consumer finances are better than he had thought. "For what it's worth, the bulk of the upward revision to income came not from wages and salaries but from dividend income," he says. — Paulo Trevisani

 

Basis Points

  • Demand for U.S. durable goods recovered after two months of declines, driven by a surge in orders for military and civilian aircraft.
  • The auto industry is flashing warning lights on the state of the U.S. economy. Automakers’ profits are getting squeezed by tariffs. A subprime auto lender recently collapsed, and some car retailers are warning that consumers are pulling back.
  • Canada’s budget deficit is projected to widen and surpass 2% of the economy for the current and coming fiscal years due to weak growth and spending measures planned by Prime Minister Mark Carney to rewire the economy, according to the country’s fiscal watchdog.
  • The pace of price growth in the Tokyo metropolitan area unexpectedly held steady in September, but upward pressure remains, keeping an interest-rate hike in play.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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