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May 11, 2021 - Brief Issue 195

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

FDA Authorizes Pfizer Vaccine for Emergency Use in Teens (Health & Science)

Experts Say Global Herd Immunity Won’t Happen Soon, But The World Can Adapt (Health & Science)

While Seasonal Mask-Wearing Might Become the Norm, Fauci Says, Indoor Mask Mandates Could Lift as More People Get Vaccinated (Health & Science)

Novavax to Pursue FDA Authorization in Late Summer 2021 (Health & Science)

WHO Adds Indian Coronavirus Strain to List of Dangerous Variants (Health & Science)

Bodies Wash Up on the Ganges, Calls for National Lockdown in India Increase (Around the World)

China Partitions Mt. Everest’s Summit Due to Coronavirus Risk (Around the World)

AstraZeneca Reaches Shipping Milestone, EU Sues Again (Around the World)

El Salvador Will Donate Doses to Honduran Towns (Around the World)

Cuomo: New York Public Colleges to Require Vaccination (U.S. Government & Politics)

Corn Prices Surge, Fueling Inflation Concerns (U.S. Economy)

Catholic Schools Losing Students (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 32,744,741 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 582,162 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 445,977,307 tests and administered 261,599,381 vaccine doses, with 46% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 34.8% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 159,027,711 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,305,902 deaths. At least 95,110,084 people have recovered from the virus.

FDA Authorizes Pfizer Vaccine for Emergency Use in Teens

The Food and Drug Administration granted emergency authorization to Pfizer’s mRNA Covid-19 vaccine for teens 12-15 years old on Monday, basing its decision on data from a trial of nearly 2,300 adolescents (Science News, NYT, WaPo, STAT). The shot, which was previously authorized in those 16 and up, appears to induce strong immune responses in younger adolescents, and causes side effects similar to those seen in trial participants 16 to 25 years old. Experts say vaccinating younger Americans is an important step in the country’s push for widespread immunity; plus, kids and teens can experience long-term or life-threatening impacts from Covid-19. “My hope is that, if everything goes as planned, by early next year, 2022, we may have an [emergency use authorization] for younger [and] younger children,” said pediatric infectious diseases physician Inci Yildirim of the Yale School of Medicine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will vote Wednesday on whether to approve the FDA’s emergency authorization, and if the measure passes, Pfizer’s shot could start reaching teens within days. Results from Moderna’s vaccine trial on adolescents 12 to 17 years old are slated to be published in the coming weeks. As the shot becomes available to younger Americans, pediatricians are encouraging parents to get their kids caught up on other routine immunizations, which have declined during the pandemic (CNN). 

Experts Say Global Herd Immunity Won’t Happen Soon, But The World Can Adapt

Even as Covid-19 vaccination percentages climb across the globe, experts say fast-spreading variants and wildly unequal vaccine distribution mean global herd immunity − the point at which enough people are immune to Covid-19 to protect those who aren’t − is unlikely to happen in the near future (NYT). Instead, the virus may become endemic, meaning it will be a constant but not necessarily catastrophic threat. “This is the natural progression of many infections we have in humans, whether it is tuberculosis or H.I.V.,” said Dr. David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “They have become endemic and we have learned to live with them and we learn how to do risk assessments and how to protect those we want to protect.” Vaccine inequality poses a threat to getting the virus under control; wealthier countries are far ahead, while, for example, only 1-2% of Africa’s population has at least one dose. Still, deaths are declining globally − if that trend continues alongside vaccine distribution, Covid-19 could become a pervasive but manageable threat like the common cold. 

While Seasonal Mask-Wearing Might Become the Norm, Fauci Says, Indoor Mask Mandates Could Lift as More People Get Vaccinated

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to the White House, said Sunday on NBC that mask-wearing may continue as the Covid-19 pandemic fades, to stem the spread of other respiratory diseases like the flu (WaPo). “We’ve had practically a nonexistent flu season this year merely because people were doing the kinds of public health things that were directed predominantly against Covid-19,” Fauci said. With data clearly showing that mask-wearing and social distancing have curbed flu infections, Fauci said it is “conceivable” that masking could continue on a voluntary and seasonal basis over the next few years. Yet in terms of the Covid-19 pandemic, Fauci said on ABC the same day, states might start relaxing indoor mask mandates as vaccination rates increase: "We do need to start being more liberal, as we get more people vaccinated” (CNN). 

Novavax to Pursue FDA Authorization in Late Summer 2021

American biotech firm Novavax announced plans to apply for emergency use authorization of its two-dose Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S. during the third quarter of this year (CNN). While the company has faced manufacturing and logistical setbacks, CEO Stanley Erck said, Novavax is stockpiling tens of millions of doses of its vaccine. Phase three clinical trial results, from Novavax’s study of over 30,000 people in the U.S. and Mexico, are expected to come out within the next few weeks. Because this trial is ongoing, the data may better reflect the spread of more contagious variants than earlier studies on vaccine efficacy. Erck also said the Novavax shot could serve as a booster shot later this year; the CDC has not yet clarified its stance on the need or plan for booster vaccines. 

WHO Adds Indian Coronavirus Strain to List of Dangerous Variants

The World Health Organization classified B.1.617, the coronavirus variant first identified in India, as a “variant of concern,” making it the most recent addition to a list including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 (WSJ, Science News). How much of a role this variant has played in India’s ongoing Covid-19 surge isn’t clear, although the WHO referenced early evidence showing that it’s more contagious than earlier variants. “This is unlike the first wave,” said Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the WHO’s chief scientist. “And so I think what we’re seeing is more transmissible.” B.1.617, which has appeared in over 20 countries including the U.S., has thirteen mutations, some of which resemble those identified in other contagious and evasive variants. WHO emphasized that people should continue getting vaccinated, as preliminary results suggest vaccines are still effective against the Indian coronavirus strain. Even if B.1.617 makes people more prone to re-infection, said Dr. Ravindra Gupta, one of the lead authors of the not-yet-published study, vaccines are likely to prevent severe disease: “On the individual level vaccination is still fantastic.”

Study Backs Up Much-Disputed Theory On Genetic Mixing Between SARS-CoV-2 and Human DNA 

MIT researchers Rudolf Jaenisch and Richard Young, the team behind a controversial preprint from December 2020 − which claimed that SARS-CoV-2 can integrate its genetic information into human cells, leading to a positive test months after Covid-19 recovery − published a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences backing up their original theory (Science). Scientists criticized the original preprint’s research methods and accused Jaenisch and Young of feeding into unfounded concerns that the mRNA vaccine interferes with human DNA. The paper, published May 6, addressed some of these criticisms: “We now have unambiguous evidence that coronavirus sequences can integrate into the genome,” Jaenisch said. 

Jaenisch and Young focused their research on reverse transcriptase, an enzyme encoded by LINE-1 fragments, which are genetic relics of ancient viral infections found in some people’s DNA. The December preprint claimed that when cells spiked with LINE-1 fragments were infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus integrated itself into the cells’ DNA. This received backlash, as researchers believed the human-virus genetic mixing Jaenisch and Young found was actually just a lab artifact. In the new study, Jaenisch and Young presented proof that this phenomenon couldn’t totally be chalked up to a research fluke. They also further solidified the link between LINE-1 elements and viral integration. Previously skeptical experts say this lends the team’s claims more credence, though the clinical weight of the study is unclear. Harmit Malik, a specialist in ancient viruses in the human genome at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, emphasized that “reverse transcription machinery,” which includes LINE-1 elements, is sparse in normal human cells, so he’s not convinced viral DNA integration is to blame for recurring positive test results. 

Bonus Reads: “Nearly 80% of People in the US Live Within 5 Miles of All Three Covid-19 Vaccines,” (CNN); “See Reopening Plans and Mask Mandates for All 50 States,” (NYT).

Around the World

Asia 

Bodies Wash Up on the Ganges, Calls for National Lockdown in India Increase

Dozens of bodies believed to be Covid-19 victims have washed up on the banks of the Ganges River in northern India as the pandemic spreads into rural areas, overwhelming local health facilities. Local official Ashok Kumar said that about 40 corpses washed up in Buxar district near the border between Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, two of India’s poorest states. “We have directed concerned officials to dispose of all bodies, to either bury or cremate them,” Kumar told AFP. Some media reports said the number of corpses could have been as high as 100. Locals believe the bodies were dumped in the river because the cremation sites were overwhelmed. According to official statistics, about 4,000 people are dying from coronavirus every day in India and the death toll is almost 250,000 but, citing anecdotal evidence from crematoriums, many experts believe the true daily number could be several times higher. For example, Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University, wrote in a tweet on Sunday that it was likely that between two to five million people were being infected every day and that India’s “true” coronavirus death toll was “closer to 25,000 deaths” each day.

A growing number of medical experts are calling on the government to enact another lockdown. Over the weekend, the Indian Medical Associate said it was time for a “complete, well-planned, pre-announced” lockdown to replace the scattershot regional restrictions currently in place across the nation of 1.4 billion. The association said in a statement that it was “astonished to see the extreme lethargy and inappropriate actions from the Ministry of Health in combating the agonizing crisis born out of the devastating second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.” An editorial published on Saturday in The Lancet, a medical journal, said that Mr. Modi “seemed more intent on removing criticism” on social media than “trying to control the pandemic.” The editorial continued, “India squandered its early successes in controlling Covid-19.”

China Partitions Mt. Everest’s Summit Due to Coronavirus Risk

On Sunday, China said it was putting control measures in place on Mount Everest, including the installation of a dividing line on the summit to prevent climbers from the Chinese side and the Nepali side from coming into contact (NYT). Last week, a team of Sherpa guides tied a rope to the summit from the Nepal side, which allowed expeditions to resume for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Nepal has approved a record 408 permits to climb Everest this year, even though several climbers have been flown out of base camp after experiencing Covid-19 symptoms. China approved just 21 permits to climb the mountain from their side this year and expressed concerns about the risk of coronavirus transmission. In addition to the restrictions at the summit, China has installed a checkpoint at the Chinese basecamp. People returning from the Chinese side will have to undergo disinfection and temperature checks. 

Europe

AstraZeneca Reaches Shipping Milestone, EU Sues Again

AstraZeneca delivered 50 million doses of its Covid-19 vaccine to European Union countries, a milestone the company had originally expected to meet in January. The delivered doses make up just one-sixth of the total amount committed so far. The European Commission is set to launch a second legal case on Tuesday against the company over delayed deliveries, a spokesman for the EU executive said on Monday (Reuters). The repeated cuts to supplies that delayed the bloc’s vaccination drive pushed the Commission to sue AstraZeneca over breach of contract in late April, but the new case will be on the merits of the issue and would allow the EU to seek potential financial penalties. Under its contract with the EU, the company had committed to its "best reasonable efforts" to deliver 300 million doses by the end of June, of which 70 million were supposed to be delivered by the end of January. But AstraZeneca in March said it would deliver only 100 million doses to the EU by the end of June. It delivered 30 million in total by the end of March.

Europe Delivers 200 Millionth Vaccine Dose, Some Countries Cautiously Reopen

Europe is starting to reopen cities and beaches as its vaccination drive reaches a third of all adults across the continent, raising hopes that the summer tourism season can still be saved (Reuters). In Spain, the country’s curfew ended for most residents over the weekend. In Greece, public beaches have reopened with deckchairs safely spaced. And in Germany, sunny weather and Health Minister Jens Spahn’s declaration that the third wave of the virus had finally abated combined to cheer moods over the weekend. Across the EU, the seven-day incidence rate is 185 per 100,000 people, far higher than in countries like Israel (6 per 100,000), Britain (31), or the U.S. (123), all of which have made more progress in their vaccination drives. As Spahn cautioned, "The mood is better than the reality." 

Americas

El Salvador Will Donate Doses to Honduran Towns

The president of El Salvador said on Monday that he will donate coronavirus vaccines to seven towns in Honduras even as his own country’s vaccination program is struggling (AP). President Nayib Bukele was touched by appeals from mayors of seven towns in neighboring Honduras who reached out to him for help. He said the donations will not affect El Salvador’s vaccination drive, which has so far administered about 1.25 shots among the country’s 6.5 million residents. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Cuomo: New York Public Colleges to Require Vaccination

On Monday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced that the State University of New York and City University of New York will both require students to be vaccinated to attend in the fall (Politico). Cuomo stated, “If you must have a vaccine, get it now if you have to get it anyway.” Many private schools including Cornell University and New York University have already announced that they will require students to be vaccinated.

Bonus Read: “As Cuomo Fights for Survival, He Revives His Combative Image,” (NYT).

U.S. Economy

Corn Prices Surge, Fueling Inflation Concerns

Over the pandemic, a range of commodities have seen price surges including lumber. Now, the price of corn is surging, fueling concerns over the potential for inflation,  the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Corn prices have risen 50% in 2021 and a bushel costs more than twice what it did a year ago. Corn has been one of the sharpest risers in the broad rally in raw materials that is prompting companies to boost prices for goods and fueling concern among investors that inflation could hobble the post-pandemic economic recovery.” The price increase will not only affect a range of groceries, but also gas prices with about 40 percent of America’s corn crop being used in gasoline. The Journal notes a range of factors that may be behind the increase including China’s increasing demand for corn and poor growing conditions in South America as well as growing demand due to greater fuel usage as driving picks up with increased travel as pandemic restrictions are relaxed.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Points to Lockdown Mentality to Explain Poor Jobs Report

On Sunday, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis pointed to a lockdown mentality to help explain the weak April jobs report (Politico). He told CBS’ “Face the Nation,” that “It wasn’t simply the lockdowns from the government that put a damper on the economy” but “each of us, each of your viewers, each family taking actions to protect themselves. Yesterday, for the first time in over a year, I got back on an airplane because my wife and I had been vaccinated and we felt comfortable. But it’s going to take time for that psychology to change.” Kashkari said that those factors should improve over the next few months and encouraged people not to focus on a single jobs report.

U.S. Society

Catholic Schools Losing Students

The Wall Street Journal reports that following a year of pandemic many Catholic schools are losing students (WSJ). The Journal reports, “At least 209 of the country’s nearly 6,000 Catholic schools have closed over the past year, according to the National Catholic Educational Association. More closures are expected this summer, and some schools have taken to GoFundMe in an effort to stay open. Nationwide, Catholic school enrollment fell 6.4% at the start of this school year, the largest single-year decline since the NCEA began tracking such data in the 1970s.” The struggles are in part due to the economic impact of the pandemic, which left many families without funds to pay for private schooling. At the same time broader trends are also playing a role, including a declining percentage of the population that identifies as Catholic. The Journal also notes, “Urban dioceses have been hit especially hard: Enrollment in schools run by the Catholic Archdiocese of Los Angeles was down 12% at the start of this school year. In the Archdiocese of New York, enrollment was down 11%.”

Analysis & Arguments

Katherine J. Wu writes that the larger vaccination effort relies on the handling of the J&J vaccine’s reputation (Atlantic).

John Cassidy argues that April’s weak jobs report is not reason to panic (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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