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The Morning Risk Report: Tariff Ruling Is a Setback for Trump but Doesn’t End Trade War

By Richard Vanderford | Dow Jones Risk Journal

 

Good morning. Shortly after the news broke that a U.S. court invalidated almost all of President Trump’s tariffs, one Vietnam-based furniture exporter responded with an astonished text: “WHAT???”

The decision by a little-known U.S. federal court heightened uncertainty over the U.S. assault on global trade, the latest in a series of escalations and reversals over trade policy that have whipsawed financial markets and scrambled corporate decision-making.

  • No peace yet: The bottom line, say trade experts, is that the global trade war is far from over. While a setback for Trump, the ruling is unlikely to deter him from seeking to rewrite the rules of global commerce in America’s favor or lead him to abandon tariffs as the principal tool to do so. 
     
  • Decision on hold: A federal appeals court on Thursday temporarily put the ruling on hold while it considers a challenge from the administration.
     
  • Many avenues available: The appeal could ultimately land the case in the Supreme Court. Trade experts and lawyers said the administration has other legal avenues to prosecute the trade war uninhibited by Wednesday’s decision.

    Also:
  • ​Retailers Cheer Trade-Court Surprise, but Stick to Their Plans
  • Tariff Ruling Raises Uncertainty and Costs for U.S. Importers
  • The Economic Arguments That Launched the Suits Against Trump Tariffs
  • Trump’s Team Plots Plan B for Imposing Tariffs
  • Economists Cautiously Cheer Court Ruling Striking Down Trump’s Tariffs
 
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More Risk & Compliance articles from Deloitte
 

Compliance

Former Goldman Sachs banker Tim Leissner arriving at court in New York on Thursday. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg News

Ex-Goldman banker sentenced to two years in 1MDB bribery scandal.

A disgraced former Goldman Sachs banker turned government cooperator was sentenced Thursday to two years in prison for his role in the looting of billions of dollars from a Malaysian sovereign-wealth fund in a global scandal that tarnished the Wall Street bank.

Tim Leissner pleaded guilty in 2018 to conspiring with another Goldman banker and a well-connected Malaysian financier, Jho Low, to bribe foreign government officials and secure lucrative business deals with 1Malaysia Development Bhd., a state-controlled economic-development company known as 1MDB.

 

SEC dismisses lawsuit against Binance.

The Securities and Exchange Commission dismissed its lawsuit against Binance and its billionaire founder Changpeng Zhao, the agency’s latest move to wind down Biden-era enforcement actions against the crypto industry.

In a Thursday court filing, attorneys for the SEC, Binance and Zhao signed on to the agency’s decision to dismiss the 2023 lawsuit. The filing noted that the SEC recently created a “crypto task force” aimed at crafting a new regulatory framework for digital assets, part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to create a friendlier environment for the industry.

 
  • The U.S. Treasury Department placed Funnull Technology and a company administrator on the sanctions list Thursday for allegedly providing computer infrastructure and websites used in cryptocurrency investment scams.
     
  • The Trump administration on Thursday named counties and cities in more than 30 states, including New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, as sanctuary jurisdictions it could go after for not complying with federal immigration laws.
     
  • U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta holds in his hands the fate of Google’s massive search-engine business, which last year he ruled was an illegal monopoly.
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“He will always be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life.”

— Henry Mazurek, a lawyer for ex-Goldman Sachs banker Tim Leissner, who cooperated with prosecutors in the 1MDB bribery investigation.
 

Risk

Trains at the border between North Korea and Russia purportedly carrying munitions to Russia. Photo: Airbus satellite imagery/SIA SuperX

North Korea sent missiles and other arms to Russia in violation of sanctions, U.S. and allies say.

North Korea has supplied at least 100 ballistic missiles and more than 11,000 troops to Russia for its war against Ukraine, according to a new report issued Thursday by the U.S. and key allies that described the transfers as “flagrant violations” of United Nations resolutions.

The missiles enabled Moscow to “increase its missile attacks against Ukrainian cities, including targeted strikes against critical civilian infrastructure,” according to the report. In return, Russia helped North Korea “to fund its military programs” and improve the accuracy of its ballistic missiles, it said.

 

Ben & Jerry’s calls Gaza conflict a genocide, putting Unilever in a tough spot.

Ben & Jerry’s is calling the Gaza conflict a genocide, a rare move for a big consumer brand and one that puts its corporate parent in a difficult position.

The statement is sure to draw ire from Ben & Jerry’s parent company, Unilever. The ice cream brand and its corporate parent have fought bitterly for years over the social activism of Ben & Jerry’s independent board—particularly its public stances on Israel and the Palestinian territories.

Under an unusual provision of the acquisition agreement Unilever struck with Ben & Jerry’s in 2000, the brand’s independent board retains decision-making about its social mission and marketing.

 
  • More people newly filed for unemployment claims last week compared with the week prior, according to the Department of Labor, a larger uptick than expected.
     
  • Back in 2020, many companies set lofty climate goals for the end of the decade. Now, midway to that deadline, some are rolling back their environmental targets. But not Microsoft.
     
  • Seven weeks into negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, Israeli officials are concerned the Trump administration could agree to a deal that doesn’t block Tehran’s ability to produce a nuclear bomb but curtails the option of Israeli military action.
     
  • Greek shipping magnates are ferrying Russian oil after a fall in crude prices and signs of a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow.
     
  • Japanese government data released Friday present a mixed picture of rising inflation and sluggish industrial activity, placing the Bank of Japan in a difficult position when it considers future rate hikes.
 ‏‏‎ ‎
26%

How much Microsoft’s Scope 3 emissions—those linked to its supply chain—went up last year compared to 2020, according to a new sustainability report. The company still wants to be "carbon negative" by 2030.

 

Executive Insights

Here is our weekly roundup of stories from across WSJ Pro that we think you’ll find useful.

  • Big private-equity firms increasingly are taking two different approaches as they strive to expand, with most following an “asset light” strategy.
     
  • U.S. venture capitalists are racing to tap into China’s growing biotechnology prowess.
     
  • Some of the U.S. banks that cut ties with a leading industry climate group have shifted how they talk about their climate efforts.
     
  • Nespresso, purveyor of sophistication, wants to win over Gen Z coffee drinkers. It’s having to get more playful with its marketing to do so.
 

What Else Matters

  • A federal judge Thursday said she would continue to let Harvard University enroll international students for now as the school fights the Trump administration in court.
     
  • OpenAI Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap said the AI revolution has ushered in an opportunity to create a new set of devices.
     
  • The Trump administration will begin to “aggressively revoke” the visas of Chinese students studying in the U.S., according to a statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
     
  • Of course workers want a four-day week. And companies should too, economist Juliet B. Schor argues in an essay.
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About Us

Follow us on X at @WSJRisk. Send tips to our reporters Mengqi Sun at mengqi.sun@wsj.com and Richard Vanderford at richard.vanderford@wsj.com.

You can also reach us by replying to any newsletter, or by emailing our editor David Smagalla at david.smagalla@wsj.com.

 
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