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October 26, 2020 - Brief Issue 110

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Records First and Second Highest Daily Covid Case Counts; 38 States Report Increases in Hospitalization Rates (Health & Science)

White House Chief of Staff Says U.S. Will Not Control Pandemic (Health & Science)

Former FDA Commissioner: U.S. Should Consider a National Mask Mandate (Health & Science)

FDA Approves Remdesivir Despite Mixed Clinical Results (Health & Science)

AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson Resume Covid-19 Vaccine Trials in U.S. (Health & Science)

Europe’s Second Wave Gains Momentum as Officials Try to Avoid Imposing Lockdowns Again (Around the World)

Colombia Hits One Million Coronavirus Cases, Prepares to Distribute Vaccine (Around the World)

People Travel Across China for Experimental Vaccine; Asymptomatic Cases Surge in Xinjiang (Around the World)

Melbourne to Exit 112-Day Lockdown (Around the World)

Vice President Pence’s Chief of Staff, Four Other Aides Test Positive for Coronavirus; Pence Says He Will Keep Campaigning Anyways; NYT Reports White House Tried to Keep Outbreak Secret; White House Defends Secrecy Due to Medical Privacy (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pelosi: Relief Deal Still Possible Before Election (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Economy Growing as European Economy Stalls (U.S. Economy)

Data Usage Limits Loom Large as Americans Work From Home (U.S. Society)

NFL Fines Tennessee Titans for Handling of Coronavirus Outbreak (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 8,636,169 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 225,230 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,422,878 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 132,568,375 tests. Worldwide, there have been 43,043,686 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,154,532 deaths. At least 28,972,912 people have recovered from the virus. 

U.S. Records First and Second Highest Daily Covid Case Counts; 38 States Report Increases in Hospitalization Rates

The U.S. reported its highest and second-highest numbers of daily Covid-19 cases, with 83,679 cases reported on Friday and 83,718 reported on Saturday (Johns Hopkins, CNN). “We’re at a dangerous tipping point right now,” said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (CNN). “We’re entering what’s going to be the steep slope of the curve.”

Whereas previous spikes have been driven by particular states or clusters of states, nearly every state is now seeing an increase in cases. Sixteen states set daily case records of their own on Friday, including Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Reuters). Over the past week, 38 states have reported increases in hospitalization rates, and 14 of those – Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming – have reported record hospitalization highs (WaPo). Bonus Read: “Coronavirus Cases Break Records as States in Every Part of U.S. Reel Under Surge,” (NBC)

White House Chief of Staff Says U.S. Will Not Control Pandemic

Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said, “We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas” (CNN). When pressed, Meadows compared Covid-19 to the flu and continued to emphasize vaccines and other therapeutics over strategies to control viral spread.

Although leading vaccine developers Pfizer and Moderna hope to have a Covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use as early as the end of November, scientists and health officials have repeatedly stated that a vaccine is unlikely to be available to everyone in the U.S. until the spring or summer. Until then, they say, it is vitally important to control the spread by other means, including avoiding crowds, physically distancing from other people, and wearing masks. Meadows’ comments come at a time when cases are surging across the country (Johns Hopkins). Bonus Reads: “A Federal Coronavirus Vaccine Contract Released At Last, But Redactions Obscure Terms,” (NPR); “Trump Team Just Announced its Surrender to the Pandemic,” (CNN).

Former FDA Commissioner: U.S. Should Consider a National Mask Mandate

In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb made the case for a national mask mandate. “There is no support for reprising this spring’s stay-at-home orders,” Gottlieb wrote. “It will be essential to use standard interventions, including limits on crowded settings […] But on the current trajectory these measures won’t be enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed in some areas.”

In addition to limiting social gatherings, widespread testing and contact tracing, Dr. Gottlieb suggested a limited, temporary national mask mandate. According to data released Friday by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), if 95% of the U.S. population were to wear a mask in public settings, the number of deaths could be reduced by 100,000 through February.

Gottlieb suggests a two-month national mask mandate, with states free to decide how to enforce the mandate. Wearing a mask, Gottlieb believes, is a simple, cost-effective measure that would keep schools and businesses open and mitigate the worst of a winter surge that health experts warn could be severe. Gottlieb, who served as FDA commissioner from May 2017 to May 2019, hopes masks will become “a social and cultural norm, not a political statement.”

FDA Approves Remdesivir Despite Mixed Clinical Results

On Thursday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted full approval for the antiviral drug remdesivir, trade name Veklury, for the treatment of Covid-19 patients (NYT, Politico). The FDA previously granted emergency authorization of the drug in May after a clinical trial led by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) found that it provided a small improvement in recovery time in hospitalized Covid-19 patients.

The decision came just a week after the World Health Organization (WHO) released the results of a large, worldwide clinical trial that found that remdesivir did not improve mortality rates or reduce the need for ventilation in Covid-19 patients (Science). Eric Topol, a public health expert at Scripps Research Translational Institute, expressed disapproval with the decision, commenting, “I don’t think the data supports it” (Politico). However, officials at the FDA point out that the NIH trial results are not incompatible with the WHO results and that the drug may indeed improve outcomes for patients with moderate-to-severe Covid-19 symptoms. FDA commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said in a statement on Thursday, “Today’s approval is supported by data from multiple clinical trials that the agency has rigorously assessed and represents an important scientific milestone in the Covid-19 pandemic” (NYT).

AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson Resume Covid-19 Vaccine Trials in U.S.

AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson each announced on Friday that they would be resuming clinical trials for their Covid-19 vaccines (NBC, WaPo). AstraZeneca paused its trial in September after a British volunteer experienced an unexplained case of spinal cord inflammation. Johnson & Johnson placed a pause on its trial in October after a participant experienced an unspecified “serious medical event.”

Independent safety reviews found no evidence that the medical events were vaccine-related, and both trials were allowed to resume. Dr. Matt Hepburn, vaccine lead for Operation Warp Speed, said at the trial pauses should reassure Americans that vaccine companies are maintaining high standards in the race to develop a safe and effective vaccine. He commented, “This is how to keep a clinical trial running at the highest ethical and quality standards.”

Study Finds No Benefit for Convalescent Plasma in Covid-19 Patients

A new study published in the scientific journal BMJ on Thursday has found no advantage of convalescent blood plasma treatment compared to standard care in Covid-19 patients (CIDRAP). The study, which examined the effects of treatment in 464 adult Covid-19 patients in 39 hospitals in India, was the first randomized, placebo-controlled study of convalescent plasma treatment. Convalescent plasma, which contains antibodies that neutralize Covid-19, has been marked as a potentially promising therapy for patients fighting the virus.

Although the study found that patients who received convalescent plasma treatment tested negative for the virus earlier than patients in the placebo group, there was no evidence of clinical benefit. Mortality rates and rates of clinical deterioration were similar in the treatment and placebo groups. Patients who received treatment were moderately more likely to experience relief from shortness of breath and fatigue, but the study was not blinded, and patients may have been influenced by the knowledge that they were receiving the therapy. No changes were noted in molecular markers for inflammation that are associated with risk of severe respiratory symptoms. 

Bonus Read: “At 12, She’s a Covid ‘Long Hauler,’” (NYT).

Around the World

Europe

Europe’s Second Wave Gains Momentum as Officials Try to Avoid Imposing Lockdowns Again

Nations across Europe are considering their options after a difficult weekend during which coronavirus cases continued to climb in spite of newly introduced measures to combat the spread of the virus. Daily confirmed infections in Europe overtook the U.S.'s daily detected infections in October and the sheer volume is threatening to overwhelm countries’ ability to test, trace, and isolate virus carriers even as health experts warn that the pandemic will intensify in the coming months (WSJ). Governments are hoping that by curbing retail and hospitality services and forcibly limiting socializing, they can control the virus without strangling Europe’s economic recovery.  

On Sunday, Spanish government officials declared a state of emergency and imposed local night time curfews and banned travel between regions in some cases (NYT). “We are living in an extreme situation ... it is the most serious health crisis in the last century,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told a news conference following a cabinet meeting. 

In France, hospitals struggled to keep up with the influx of patients and the death count rose. A record 52,010 infections were confirmed on Sunday in just 24 hours, breaking the previous record of 45,422 new cases set on Saturday (Reuters). 

In Italy, officials announced the toughest restrictions since the country exited the national lockdown in the spring, ordering the early closures of bars and restaurants and the total shutdown of gyms, swimming pools, theaters, cinemas, and concert halls (WSJ). A record of 19,640 new cases were recorded on Saturday. 

In Poland, the country is battling one of the most severe outbreaks in Europe as President Andrzej Duda tested positive just days after the deputy prime minister went into quarantine (BBC). The country has entered a nationwide “red zone” lockdown that includes the partial closure of primary schools and restaurants. A daily record of more than 13,600 new infections was recorded on Friday. 

Bulgarian Prime Minister Tests Positive

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has tested positive for coronavirus, announcing in a Facebook message on Sunday: “After two PCR tests, today I am positive for COVID-19” (AP). The number of coronavirus infections in the Balkan country has steadily risen over the past two weeks, with a total of 37,562 confirmed infections and 1,084 deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Americas

Colombia Hits One Million Coronavirus Cases, Prepares to Distribute Vaccine

Colombia surpassed 1 million coronavirus infections on Saturday afternoon, the eighth country in the world to hit the milestone. The country now has 1,007,711 confirmed cases and 30,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic. While other countries join the race to develop a vaccine, Colombia has readied itself for the next step: distribution of that vaccine. It’s prepared thanks to decades of a free government immunization program that offers 21 different vaccines to everyone in the country. “We have a really strong vaccination program that serves as a model and which will incorporate the new formula that will arrive against COVID,” Gerardo Burgos, secretary general of the health ministry, told Reuters. The current program covers everything from infant inoculations to human papillomavirus and the country distributes about 23 million doses per year to its 50 million people and more than 1.7 million Venezuelan migrants. Now, the government is planning to spend up to 300 billion pesos ($78 million) on “transport, information campaigns, regional warehouse expansions and personnel to inoculate the initial 10 million recipients,” according to Reuters.

Peru Facing Twin Outbreaks: Coronavirus and Dengue Fever

Peru has been battling one of the world’s worst coronavirus outbreaks and now health officials say another virus is on the rise: dengue (AP). Dengue is a mosquito-borne illness with painful symptoms including fever and muscle aches, and while severe cases can require hospitalization it is usually not fatal. Officials have reported over 35,000 cases of dengue this year, concentrated largely in the Amazon. The rise comes as the overall cases of coronavirus dip slightly, although authorities worry that a second wave of coronavirus could come while dengue cases continue to climb. Doctors say they are already treating patients with both illnesses.

Asia

People Travel Across China for Experimental Vaccine; Asymptomatic Cases Surge in Xinjiang

A small number of cities in China have reportedly begun offering an experimental coronavirus vaccine to select members of the public in recent weeks and now people are traveling from all over the country in hopes of getting the shot (CNN). Jiazing, a city in Zhejiang province, announced on Oct. 15 it would sell vaccines to citizens in “urgent” need. "Citizens with urgent vaccination needs can go to the community clinic for consultation with the premise of voluntary and informed consent," the Jiaxing Center for Disease Control posted to its official WeChat account. The shot costs about $60 for the required two doses, according to the statement.

Yiwu, another city in the same province is also reportedly offering the vaccine, which is still undergoing clinical trials and considered experimental. Globally, there is currently no coronavirus vaccine that has been proven safe to use. 

China reported its highest number of asymptomatic novel coronavirus infections in nearly seven months on Monday after a cluster of cases linked to a garment factory in the northwestern region of Xinjiang was discovered (Reuters). Health authorities said they found 137 asymptomatic cases on Sunday as they conducted routine tests during a campaign to test the 4.75 million people in the Kashgar area. Contact tracing is being done to discover the origin of the outbreak. The number of new symptomless infections was the highest since China began reporting those numbers on April 1 even though the number of new cases is down from its peak in February. The government has begun mass testing across the country as a way of avoiding further outbreaks.

Melbourne to Exit 112-Day Lockdown

The Australian city of Melbourne is planning to end its lockdown on Wednesday after reporting no new coronavirus cases for the first time since June (BBC). The state of Victoria was the center of Australia’s second wave and accounted for more than 90% of its 905 deaths. Melbourne, the state capital, went into lockdown 111 days ago, meaning its residents were confined to their homes, travel was restricted, and retail stores and restaurants were closed. But authorities said on Monday that the city is finally ready to reopen: "With zero cases and so much testing over the weekend... we are able to say that now is the time to open up," said Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. In July, Victoria was recording more than 700 cases per day. 

South Korea Pushes Flu Shot 

South Korea is hoping to dispel concerns over the safety of the seasonal influenza vaccine and is urging citizens to get the shot (Reuters). The government hopes that by vaccinating people against the flu it can avoid stressing its health system with concurrent outbreaks of influenza and coronavirus. Anxiety over the safety of the flu vaccine is at an all time high after at least 59 people died this month after getting the vaccination. Last month, about 5 million doses had to be disposed of after it was discovered that they had not been stored properly. Even though authorities said they found no direct link between the deaths and the flu vaccines, people are hesitant to trust health authorities even though the health ministry says that the benefits of getting the vaccine outweigh any side effects. At a briefing on Monday, a top health official said that severe adverse reactions to the flu vaccines are rare, with just one in 500,000 or a million people suffering from anaphylactic shock.   

U.S. Government & Politics

Vice President Pence’s Chief of Staff, Four Other Aides Test Positive for Coronavirus; Pence Says He Will Keep Campaigning Anyways; NYT Reports White House Tried to Keep Outbreak Secret; White House Defends Secrecy Due to Medical Privacy

At least five aides to Vice President Pence including his Chief of Staff, Marc Short, have tested positive for coronavirus (NYT, WSJ, WaPo). Short tested positive on Saturday, according to a spokesperson for Pence. According to CNN, the other aides who tested positive include Zach Bauer and Marty Obst, an outside adviser close to Pence (CNN). Two sources told CNN that Bauer, Pence’s body man, had tested positive earlier in the week.

Officials say that Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence tested negative, and the Vice President is continuing his campaign activities including attending a rally in Kinston, North Carolina on Sunday (Fox). The decision to hold the rally drew criticism from North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Wayne Goodwin, who commented, “If Donald Trump and Mike Pence won’t even take the necessary steps to protect their own staff from the virus, how can North Carolinians trust them to protect the rest of us?” Bonus Read: “Tough Questions Undercut Trump’s Reliance on Local Media Coverage” (Politico).

Pence’s office did not make any statements on the outbreak among his staff until it announced Short’s positive test on Saturday (CNN). The New York Times reported that the White House had tried to keep the outbreak secret (NYT). In an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows rejected that report, defending the White House’s actions on the grounds of medical privacy (NYT). Meadows said, “Sharing personal information is not something that we should do, not something that we do actually do — unless it’s the vice president or the president or someone that’s very close to them where there’s people in harm’s way.” The outbreak on Pence’s staff follows an earlier White House outbreak during which President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump both tested positive. During that outbreak, Vice President Pence tested negative.

Pelosi: Relief Deal Still Possible Before Election

On Sunday, nine days before the election, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi expressed optimism that a deal on coronavirus relief could still be possible prior to the election (Politico). Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Pelosi said, “I never give up hope. I'm optimistic. We put pen to paper and had been writing the bill based on what we hope will be the outcome, what they said they would get back to us on.” Pelosi told CNN that she had sent Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin a series of questions as part of negotiations on Friday and expects to receive responses today. Even if the White House and House Democrats agree on a bill before the election, it remains unclear whether the Senate GOP would pass the bill before the election, as Senate Republicans have expressed opposition to the larger amounts being negotiated and have pushed their own smaller bill, which Senate Democrats prevented from advancing last week.

New Jersey Governor Tests Negative for Coronavirus

On Saturday, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and his wife tested negative for coronavirus, following the governor having close contact with a staffer who tested positive (Politico). As we covered in a brief last week, having been informed of the close contact, Governor Murphy rapidly left an event, emphasizing the importance of doing so and criticizing Trump for having previously held an event in New Jersey despite having reason to believe he might have had the virus. Murphy tweeted, “.@FirstLadyNJ and I just got #COVID19 tests and thankfully tested negative. This pandemic is not over, and we all need to stay vigilant. Wear a mask. Social distance. Wash your hands” and urged people to find a testing site via New Jersey’s government website.

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “New York’s Largest Nurses Union Rocked by Internal Political Fights,” (Politico). 

U.S. Economy Growing as European Economy Stalls

The U.S. economy shows signs of growing again even as the European economy shows signs of stalling amid rising coronavirus cases (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Economic activity in the U.S. grew at the fastest pace in more than a year and a half as businesses anticipated greater demand, an easing of coronavirus-related restrictions and less uncertainty following November’s election, surveys of purchasing managers showed.” IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index hit its highest point in 20 months for the United States rising to 55.5 in October with a value over 50 meaning increased activity. However, in Europe, the index fell to 49.4 in October.   

Savings Rose Globally Amid Pandemic and Stimulus Efforts; Decisions on Spending Could Shape Economic Recovery Fate

Decisions on how to spend money may play a critical role in determining the extent and character of any global economic recovery, according to a Sunday report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Households around the world responded to the coronavirus pandemic and its related effects by sharply boosting their savings. What they do with that cash could help shape the global economic recovery. Saving rates in many countries soared last spring as governments pumped stimulus money into people’s pockets and consumers trimmed their spending because of business closures, infection fears or lower expenses while working from home.” Initial evidence from the U.S. suggests that people may be returning to old spending habits, which could help drive an economic recovery. The Journal writes, “In the U.S., the personal saving rate—seasonally adjusted and annualized—rose to a record 33.6% in April when restrictions peaked, but fell to 14.1% in August. That is still well above the 8.3% rate in February, before the pandemic hit, suggesting that while households were spending more by late summer than in the spring, they hadn’t fully resumed their old habits.” However, a lack of consumer confidence as well as the difficulty of spending while under coronavirus-related restrictions may hold back such an infusion of cash into the economy.

U.S. Society

Data Usage Limits Loom Large as Americans Work From Home

As Americans increasingly work from home due to the coronavirus pandemic, millions of Americans are having to monitor their internet habits more closely to prevent work-related data usage from exceeding their limits and generating large bills (WSJ). The increases also come from non-work activities as people are stuck at home looking for entertainment. The Wall Street Journal writes, “The amount of time consumers spend streaming TV, gaming and using Zoom or other video conference platforms substantially increased since the start of the pandemic, activities that often eat up large amounts of data.” Companies point to the role data limits play in maintaining network stability but Comcast and Cox have both adjusted their limits upwards amid the increased usage. 

NFL Fines Tennessee Titans for Handling of Coronavirus Outbreak

The NFL fined the Tennessee Titans $350,000 in response to their handling of a coronavirus outbreak on the team -- including their communication failures and improper mask usage -- but did not impose stiffer penalties, according to reports on Sunday (NFL.com, NYT). The league did not suspend anyone and did not impose any penalties regarding games or draft picks. The League and the player’s union are investigating the outbreaks’ causes. As we covered in a brief last week, some reports and initial data point to social activities rather than gameplay itself as the source of spread.

Bonus Read: “Ovens, Dishwashers and Washing Machines are Breaking Down Like Never Before. But There’s Nobody to Fix Them,” (WaPo). 

Analysis & Arguments

Nicholas Kristof writes on the United States’ “colossal failure of leadership” regarding the pandemic (NYT).

Michelle Chen writes on how teacher’s aides are adapting to the pandemic (Dissent).

Daniel Judt and Maxwell Ulin argue that door to door canvassing can be done safely and is important for campaigns (Nation).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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