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January 13, 2021 - Brief Issue 137
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
U.S. Plans to Favor States that Administer Vaccines Quickly in New Allocation Plan; CDC Issues New Vaccine Eligibility Guidelines; Trump Administration to Release all Vaccine Doses (Health & Science)
Gorillas at San Diego Zoo Test Positive for Covid-19 (Health & Science)
Covid-19 Restrictions Cause a Decline in Other Common Viral Illnesses (Health & Science)
Disneyland to Become Mass Covid-19 Vaccination Site (Health & Science)
CDC Recommends Covid-19 Vaccination Even for Those with Previous Infections (Health & Science)
AstraZeneca Applies for Emergency Approval in Europe (Health & Science)
Health Authorities Investigate Death that Occurred After Covid-19 Vaccination (Health & Science)
Brazilian Clinical Trial Finds Sinovac Vaccine Less Effective Than Previously Reported (Health & Science)
Ontario Declares Emergency Amid Surge (Around the World)
Japan Set to Expand Emergency Measures to Seven More Prefectures (Around the World)
Israel to Provide Vaccines to Holocaust Survivors Worldwide (Around the World)
Schumer Pledges Agenda Will Include More Coronavirus Relief Amid Impeachment Push (U.S Government & Politics)
Job Postings Still Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels (U.S. Economy)
U.S. Emissions Dropped More Than 10 Percent Last Year (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 22,849,333 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 380,821 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 269,334,131 tests and distributed 27,696,150 vaccine doses, with 9,327,138 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 91,717,877 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,965,030 deaths. At least 50,751,265 people have recovered from the virus.
U.S. Plans to Favor States that Administer Vaccines Quickly in New Allocation Plan; CDC Issues New Vaccine Eligibility Guidelines; Trump Administration to Release all Vaccine Doses
According to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, the federal government will soon change how it distributes Covid-19 vaccines to states. Beginning in two weeks, states will receive vaccine doses based on how quickly they administer them and the size of their elderly population (CNBC). Officials are encouraging states to use the two weeks to improve their data reporting and ensure prompt documentation to the U.S. government.
The policy change comes as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issues new guidance on vaccine eligibility (NYT). Starting immediately, the agency recommends extending vaccination to all individuals over 65, as well as those with certain comorbidities such as diabetes, cancer and heart disease. Previously, CDC guidelines recommended prioritizing health care workers and those in nursing homes, although some states, such as Texas and Florida, had already expanded their eligibility criteria.
Along with the expanded eligibility criteria, the Trump administration announced that it would release all vaccine doses in an effort to speed immunization (WSJ, WaPo). Previously, the administration made the decision to hold back half of all the doses it had received from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna to ensure enough doses remained for booster shots, given several weeks after the first dose. The decision to release the reserve doses comes days after the Biden administration announced that it planned to make a similar change. Second doses will now be provided through additional manufacturing. The move has drawn criticism from some, who worry that any potential delays in manufacturing could mean some people won’t get their second dose on schedule. Others, however, argue that it is more important to initiate vaccination in as many people as possible, even in the event of delayed second doses. So far, manufacturing has ramped up smoothly, and officials expect everyone who has initiated vaccination to be able to receive a second dose on schedule.
Gorillas at San Diego Zoo Test Positive for Covid-19
San Diego Zoo officials said on Monday that two western lowland gorillas had tested positive for Covid-19 (CBS, Reuters). A third gorilla is symptomatic but tested negative. In total, eight gorillas live together and are presumed to be infected. None of the gorillas appear severely ill and all are expected to recover fully. The gorillas are thought to have contracted the virus from an asymptomatic staff member. The infections are the first known cases confirmed in apes, although coronavirus has been confirmed in a handful of other animals, including lions and tigers at the Bronx Zoo and a large population of minks in Denmark.
Covid-19 Restrictions Cause a Decline in Other Common Viral Illnesses
Covid-19 prevention methods – distancing, masking, avoiding crowds – seem to be driving other infections down to unprecedentedly low levels, say infectious disease experts (WaPo). For instance, in the third week of December 2019, before Covid-19 was detected in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 16.2 percent of samples tested for influenza A came back positive. During the same period in 2020, only 0.3 percent of samples were positive. Although some of this decline may be due to high rates of flu vaccination this year, similar drops have been reported for other contagious illnesses.
Overall, the decline in common viral illnesses is good news, particularly for hospitals overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients. However, epidemiologists are concerned about a rebound of these illnesses once Covid-19 is under control and public health measures begin to relax. According to experts, susceptibility to common respiratory infections is slowly rising as immunity to previous infections wanes. Even so, experts are quick to advise continued adherence to public health guidelines and do not recommend anyone purposely expose themselves to possible infection.
Disneyland to Become Mass Covid-19 Vaccination Site
Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, California, is soon to become Orange County’s first Covid-19 vaccine “super POD” – point-of-dispensing – site, according to officials (CNN). More “super POD” sites will be announced as agreements are finalized. Other mass vaccination sites around California include iconic sites such as the Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Petco Park in San Diego, and Cal Expo in Sacramento. Vaccination rates have lagged behind expectations, and mass vaccination sites may be one way to increase the pace of distribution.
CDC Recommends Covid-19 Vaccination Even for Those with Previous Infections
Regardless of prior Covid-19 infection status, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that people receive the vaccine when they are able (AP). Scientists don’t yet know how long immunity to the virus lasts, although research suggests protection could last for months or potentially several years. Even so, cases of reinfections have been reported, and there is no way of knowing how long an individual might be immune. In contrast to infections, vaccines are designed to produce an optimal immune response that should provide consistent protection.
AstraZeneca Applies for Emergency Approval in Europe
AstraZeneca has applied to the European Medicines Agency for emergency authorization of their vaccine, developed along with Oxford University (WSJ). The agency said it could approve the vaccine as early as January 29. The E.U. has secured 300 million doses of the vaccine and has the option to order 100 million more. The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine would join the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, approved in the E.U. in late December, and the Moderna vaccine, approved last week.
Health Authorities Investigate Death that Occurred After Covid-19 Vaccination
Health authorities are investigating the death of Dr. Gregory Michael, a Florida doctor who died of a severe case of acute immune thrombocytopenia 16 days after receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at Mount Sinai Medical Center (NYT). Acute immune thrombocytopenia is a condition that prevents blood clotting, and it usually occurs when the immune system mistakenly attacks blood platelets. Vaccines, which stimulate the immune system, could, in rare cases, trigger the condition. Covid-19 itself has also been reported to cause the condition in some patients.
Pfizer released a statement saying that it was “actively investigating” the case, “but we don’t believe at this time that there is any direct connection to the vaccine.” About nine million people have received a Covid-19 vaccine in the United States. Severe reactions have been restricted to 29 cases of anaphylaxis, none of which were fatal. Experts have said that although Dr. Michael’s case was very unusual, it could have been caused by a severe reaction to the vaccine. Local and federal authorities are actively investigating the possibility of a vaccine link. Experts say that such a vaccine reaction would be extremely rare and should not discourage people from seeking immunization.
Brazilian Clinical Trial Finds Sinovac Vaccine Less Effective Than Previously Reported
Brazilian scientists reported on Tuesday that their trial of the Sinovac Covid-19 vaccine showed that the vaccine was only 50.38% effective, far lower than their original report of 78% efficacy (WSJ). The 78% efficacy rating came from numbers that included only volunteers who experienced moderate to severe Covid-19. Those who had very mild symptoms, requiring no medical intervention, were not included. The trial coordinators reported the new efficacy number after scientists accused them of lack of transparency and misleading the public. Although the vaccine barely clears the World Health Organization’s recommended 50% efficacy threshold, it is more effective than some flu vaccines and does not require special freezers for storage, making it a more practical option for low- and middle-income countries.
Coronavirus Likely to Become Akin to Common Cold, Scientists Say
According to a report published in the journal Science on Tuesday, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, may soon be no more threatening than the viruses that cause the common cold (NYT). Scientists predict that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, but once vaccines become more prevalent and populations build up immunity to the virus, it is likely that the disease severity will lessen. Once a virus has been circulating in a population long-term, it is referred to as “endemic.” There are currently four types of endemic coronaviruses that circulate around the world, all of which cause generally mild cold-like symptoms.
In the Science report, researchers examined reinfection patterns for the four endemic coronaviruses, as well as SARS and MERS, two coronaviruses that emerged in recent years but were locally contained. The researchers found that most people are infected with the four endemic coronaviruses for the first time by three to five years of age. For most children, who are constantly exposed to new pathogens, Covid-19 symptoms are very mild. Based on infection patterns for the other four coronaviruses, scientists expect that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate among the population and that reinfections may occur, but that reinfections will be mild since most people will retain some degree of immunity to the virus.
Left to its own devices, SARS-CoV-2 would likely take years or even decades to become endemic, with devastating consequences. However, the advent of a vaccine means that endemic status could take hold much sooner, potentially within a year or less. Some of the details are a little uncertain – after all, the model has to make some assumptions, namely that SARS-CoV-2 will follow similar patterns as cold-causing coronaviruses. However, scientists who spoke to the New York Times who were not involved in the study agreed that the most likely scenario is that the virus will come to resemble a common cold-type virus.
Bonus Reads: “The Mysterious Link Between COVID-19 and Sleep,” (Atlantic); “As the New C.D.C. Chief, I’ll Tell You the Truth,” (NYT).
Around the World
The Americas
Ontario Declares Emergency Amid Surge
Canada’s largest province declared a tightened lockdown on Tuesday as health officials fear that hospitals are reaching a breaking point. Starting on Thursday, Ontario residents must stay at home except for essential activity. Outdoor gatherings will be restricted to five people, while non-essential construction work will be largely halted. Schools and non-essential business, which have both been shuttered since December 26, will remain closed. The emergency was declared after new modeling suggests that Ontario will have more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day by the middle of next month, representing a tenfold increase from current levels. “I know the stay-at-home order is a drastic measure, one we don’t take lightly. Everyone must stay home to stay lives,” said Ontario premier Doug Ford at a Tuesday press conference. “Enforcement and inspections will increase,” he added (Guardian). Bonus Read: “As Canada Battles Rising COVID-19 Cases, Lack of Sick Leave Fuels Transmission,” (Reuters).
Europe
English Hospitals to Discharge Patients to Hotels
In a bid to ease strain on hospitals, thousands of Covid-19 patients in England will be discharged early to either hotels or even their own homes, the Guardian reported. According to the plan, patients who are medically not at serious risk but nonetheless contagious will be eligible for the plan. They will be cared for by volunteers and family members. “This is for patients who don’t need to be in a hospital bed but still need to be in a protected environment,” said one official to the Guardian. The London Hotel Group has already started taking in homeless patients from King’s College hospital in London, saying it could provide up to 5,000 beds. Lucy Watson, chair of the Patients Association, said that while it appears the National Health Service is running low on options, the program has its risks. She said: “Early discharge can often cause problems that result in harm to the patient and the need to re-admit them. Care by volunteers in hotels is not an adequate substitute for proper hospital care. But at a time when hospitals are overwhelmed by critically ill patients and striving to prevent loss of life on a large scale, clearly they will be making desperate choices” (Guardian).
Russia’s Cosmonaut Center Begins Vaccinating Employees
Russia’s main cosmonaut training center has begun vaccinating employees in preparation for space missions, the Russian space agency told AFP on Tuesday. The center, which is located in Star City near Moscow, has already vaccinated 40 of its 1,500 employees with the Russian-made vaccine Sputnik V. "Training continues and we are prioritizing the vaccination of employees who are in close contact with crews preparing for mission," announced the center’s spokesperson. Vaccinations for cosmonauts began in December, with the next crew slated to launch to the International space station in April. Russia approved the Sputnik V vaccine in August. Its rollout has been slowed, however, by a combination of logistical issues and a lack of public trust in the vaccine, which was approved before the completion of Phase Three testing (AFP).
Asia-Pacific
Japan Set to Expand Emergency Measures to Seven More Prefectures
The Japanese government is expected to expand the scope of its ongoing state of emergency to seven more prefectures on Wednesday as the pandemic worsens. The emergency measures, which currently apply only to Tokyo, are expected to include Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Aichi and Gifu prefectures. Under the emergency orders, businesses are encouraged to tell employees to work from home, with restaurants and bars asked to shutter by either 8 or 9pm. The guidelines will be non-compulsory, however, and schools will remain open. The emergency status will last through February 7. The news was welcomed by Osaka governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, whose prefecture saw more than 3,800 new cases last week. “The central government has made a quick decision, and we will cooperate to stop the spread of the virus,” he said to reporters. As of midnight on January 12, Japan reported 4,864 new cases for the previous 24 hours (Kyodo News, Japan Times).
Vietnamese Flight Attendant Accused of Starting Outbreak Placed Under House Arrest
A Vietnam Airlines flight attendant was placed under house arrest on Tuesday in Ho Chi Minh City on accusations of starting a local outbreak of the coronavirus. Duong Tan Hau, 29, is under investigation for “spreading dangerous infectious diseases in humans” after he allegedly broke quarantine after returning to Vietnam from Japan. He is believed to have contracted the virus by leaving his designated wing at Vietnam Airline’s central quarantine center and mingling with another employee who had contracted the virus in Romania. Once at home for a period of mandatory self-isolation, he invited another friend to stay at his house for two days against regulations. He tested positive for the coronavirus 15 days after returning to Vietnam, along with the friend who had visited him, who in turn spread it to two other individuals. The incident broke an 89-day streak in Vietnam free of community transmission. Vietnam, which has almost entirely closed its borders, has been relatively unscathed by the pandemic, reporting a total of only 1,520 cases and 35 deaths. As of Wednesday, it has been free of community transmission for 41 days (Vnexpress).
China Renews Lockdowns Amid Uptick in Cases
On Monday, China reported 85 cases of community-transmitted Covid-19 cases, the highest daily count in six months. Forty-two additional cases were reported Tuesday. Fearing outbreaks like the one that shut down the city of Wuhan at the beginning of the pandemic, Chinese officials imposed lockdowns on hard-hit areas and asked citizens to avoid traveling over Lunar New Year in February (WSJ, The Hill).
Many of the recent cases are coming out of the northern province of Hebei. Hebi’s largest metro area, Shijiazhuang, sent 11 million residents into lockdown. Five million residents from the city of Langfang are also under lockdown orders. In total, 20 million Chinese residents are under home quarantine orders as authorities work to contain the virus.
Bonus Read: “To Cancel or Not?: IOC, Japan Press Ahead with Tokyo Games,” (AP).
Middle East
Israel to Provide Vaccines to Holocaust Survivors Worldwide
The Israeli government is planning to provide coronavirus vaccines to all Holocaust survivors outside of Israel. Diaspora Affairs Minister Omer Yankelevitch has ordered the Shalom Corps, a global Jewish volunteer movement operating under the auspices of the ministry, to coordinate the process with local vaccination centers across the world. “In a time of acute global crisis in the face of the coronavirus, we have the privilege to repay, if only slightly, Holocaust survivors who survived the inferno of the Nazi oppressor and, thanks to their courage, managed to protect the embers of Judaism," Yankelevitch told Israel Hayom, the Israeli newspaper that first reported the story. The campaign intends to recruit philanthropists to fund the program, with the vaccines to be sourced outside the state’s supply. Holocaust survivors living within Israel will be covered by the state’s normal vaccine distribution network, which is currently on track to complete its mission by the end of March, according to the health ministry (Jerusalem Post). Meanwhile, as we have covered in previous briefs, Israel, despite its significant vaccination successes, has not distributed vaccines to the millions of Palestinians living under its control in the occupied West Bank or in blockaded Gaza (WaPo). Palestinian officials have announced that they plan to try and obtain doses of the AstraZeneca and Russian Sputnik V vaccines.
U.S. Government & Politics
Schumer Pledges Agenda Will Include More Coronavirus Relief Amid Impeachment Push
Current Senate Minority Leader and soon to be Majority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on Tuesday that the Democratic agenda would include more coronavirus relief as well as impeachment (Politico). In a letter to his colleagues, Schumer wrote, “As we continue to reckon with the horrific events on January 6th, our work on behalf of the American people must not and will not be deterred,” adding, “The violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th showed us we need qualified Senate-confirmed people (not in an acting capacity) in key national security positions on Day One” and “The economic challenges our nation faces also require having key economic nominees confirmed and on the job ASAP.” Schumer also told his caucus that one priority would be passing $2,000 direct checks for people, an issue that split the Republican party and became a major issue in the Georgia Senate elections after Trump signaled that he would support such a push while Republican Senate leadership remained largely opposed.
U.S. Likely to Require Covid Testing for All Visitors
The United States is likely to require coronavirus testing for all visitors to the country, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (WSJ). The Journal wrote, “The U.S. government is expected to require all international airline passengers to show proof of a negative Covid-19 test before boarding flights to the country, people familiar with the matter said. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is planning to issue its order as soon as Tuesday, following weeks of discussions among federal agencies and the White House coronavirus task force. The order is expected to go into effect January 26, according to a person familiar with the matter. The CDC and other administration officials were still completing the order.” The Trump administration had previously imposed testing requirements for visitors from the United Kingdom in an effort to prevent the spread of a more infectious strain of coronavirus first discovered there. However, the strain has now appeared in multiple countries. Canada has also instituted a requirement that visitors present a negative test to enter the country.
U.S. Economy
Job Postings Still Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
Despite slow increases, the total number of job postings in the United States remains well below what it was before the pandemic, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Available jobs posted online were down 10.6% at the end of December from a year earlier, according to job-search site Indeed’s measure of job posting trends. Postings rose from the end of November, when the number of available jobs were 11.8% below 2019’s trend, but the pace of improvement has eased since the summer, when businesses started to reopen after spring lockdowns. Indeed measures postings by comparing the recent rate of growth to that of a year earlier.” Some analysts worry that while January is usually a good month for job postings, it may not be this year.
Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Pandemic Drives Municipal Borrowing to 10-Year High,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
U.S. Emissions Dropped More Than 10 Percent Last Year
Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States dropped over 10 percent in 2020, representing the largest single-year decline since World War II and reaching the lowest overall levels in 30 years (NYT). Transportation emissions, the largest U.S. contributor to greenhouse gases, dropped by 14.7 percent as airlines were forced to cancel flights and people started driving less.
This decline in emissions puts the U.S. on track to reach one of the major goals of the Paris climate agreement: lowering U.S. emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels. However, scientists say that a single-year drop in emissions, even one as substantial as this, is not enough to stop climate change. As vaccines become more prevalent and people return to work and begin traveling again, emissions levels are likely to bounce back up. Absent major policy changes, the U.S. is likely to continue facing challenges in addressing climate change.
Analysis & Arguments
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