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July 20, 2020 - Brief Issue 80

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approved Emergency Use Authorization for Pooled Coronavirus Test Samples (Health & Science)

United States Surpasses Its Latest Record of New Coronavirus Cases, Surging Past 77,000 in a Single Day; Texas Becomes Fourth State to Pass 300,000 Coronavirus Cases (Health & Science)

U.S. Should Invest $75 Billion in Testing, Says Bipartisan Committee in Rockefeller Foundation Report (Health & Science)

New Study on Contact Tracing Says “Minimising Testing Delay Had the Largest Impact on Reducing Onward Transmissions” (Health & Science)

U.S. Bureau of Prisons: 3,600 Inmates and 300 Prison Staff Have Tested Positive for the Coronavirus (Health & Science)

Vaccine Candidates: Johnson & Johnson to Begin Phase I Trial on July 22 with Phase III Planned for September; Russia to Begin Phase III Trial in August After Completing Phase I Trial Last Week, Expects Approval in August (Health & Science)

Coronavirus Sparks Protests Around the World (Around the World)

U.K. Plans for Millions of Antibody Tests (Around the World)

Argentina Announces Lockdown Will End, Also Reports Highest Daily Case Count (Around the World)

Cuba Celebrates Zero Cases of Local Transmission (Around the World)

Over 2,000 Healthcare Workers in Ghana Have Tested Positive (Around the World)

Experts Think South Africa Data Could be Undercounting COVID-19 Deaths (Around the World)

Congress Prepares to Debate Extension of Unemployment Benefits, Stimulus Checks, and Funding for Health Agencies in Economic Relief Bill; Trump Refuses Increased Funding for States and CDC (U.S. Government & Politics)

Economic Recovery Contingent on Vaccine and Reducing New Outbreaks (U.S. Economy)

Polls Suggest Many Americans Unwilling to Get a Coronavirus Vaccine (U.S. Society)

Masking Policies Shift Across the U.S., Trend Towards Using Masks Amongst Individuals, Companies, and States (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

As of Monday morning, there have now been 3,773,260 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 140,534 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 1,131,121 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 45,734,327 tests. Worldwide, there have been 14,508,892 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 606,206 deaths. At least 8,134,747 people have recovered from the virus. According to an analysis by Reuters, the world coronavirus cases count passed 14 million on Friday, increasing by 1 million cases in only 100 hours. On Saturday, the World Health Organization reported the highest single day increase of new global coronavirus cases, at 259,848 (Time).

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approved Emergency Use Authorization for Pooled Coronavirus Test Samples

On Saturday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced its authorization of Quest Diagnostics’ coronavirus test “with pooled samples containing up to four individual swab specimens collected.” According to the FDA press release, this is the first test given emergency use authorization for pooled collected samples. In response, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said, “This EUA for sample pooling is an important step forward in getting more COVID-19 tests to more Americans more quickly while preserving testing supplies” adding, “Sample pooling becomes especially important as infection rates decline and we begin testing larger portions of the population.” The FDA noted that while there can be concerns regarding pool testing accuracy because it could be “more difficult to detect positives,” Quest’s data showed that the pooled test it developed “correctly identified all of the pooled samples that contained a positive sample.” As we noted in a previous brief at the end of June, according to a report in STAT, pool testing is “part of a broader disease surveillance strategy, one that allows for regular screening of people who are not experiencing Covid-19 symptoms. Testing asymptomatic people is important because a large portion of people with the coronavirus either show no symptoms or take a few days to start feeling sick, but they can still spread the virus.” Pool testing focuses on batches of people in order to prevent further spread of the virus, which is why it is helpful to test large groups where “negative” results are expected. It’s easier to narrow down the positive tests in a large group of negatives and contact trace from there.

United States Surpasses Its Latest Record of New Coronavirus Cases, Surging Past 77,000 in a Single Day; Texas Becomes Fourth State to Pass 300,000 Coronavirus Cases

On Thursday, the United States recorded over 77,000 new coronavirus cases – its single highest rate of new daily cases, according to Johns Hopkins University data. This increase was nearly 10,000 more cases than two days prior last week, reports CNN. By Friday, the U.S. daily count dropped to 71,000 new cases (WSJ), on Saturday, it was 63,698 (CNN), and by Sunday it was 61,487 (Johns Hopkins). Further, 39 states reported an increase in new coronavirus cases from just one week prior.

Colorado Governor Jared Polis announced that a new mask mandate would be required for all those in public spaces as of Thursday, and Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson announced a mask mandate for those “in the presence of non-household members and aren’t able to socially distance, reports CNN. As we noted in a brief from last week, hospitals in Texas and Arizona put in requests for refrigerated trucks to serve as temporary morgues at their facilities as COVID-19 deaths overtake their emergency rooms (Fox6, Hill, Newsweek).

Texas passed 300,000 new coronavirus cases as of Friday – joining Florida, New York, and California – after the state recorded another 14,780 new coronavirus cases (NBC News). In one Texas county, 85 infants under 1-year-old have tested positive for the coronavirus (Texas Tribune). And now, 740 military doctors, nurses, and specialists have been sent to California and Texas to help with the rising coronavirus cases, reports Fox News. According to a CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University coronavirus data, “Florida is averaging just over 55 cases per 100,000 people,” and reported 12,478 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, a state single day record (CNN). North Carolina reported its single highest day of new coronavirus cases on Saturday, at 2,481 (WSJ). The Washington Post reports that “Black Mainers — many of them immigrants — have been infected at disproportionate rates, accounting for approximately 23 percent of the cases in a state where they are less than 2 percent of the population.”

On Friday, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the White House coronavirus task force “urged governors and mayors to ‘be as forceful as possible’ to get people to wear face coverings,” reports CNN. This comes after the Center for Public Integrity obtained a 359-page document that was prepared for the task force that said “18 states are in the ‘red zone’ for COVID-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the ‘red zone’ for test positivity, meaning more than 10 percent of diagnostic test results came back positive” (CPI). The 18 states in the new cases red zone are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah; and the 11 states in the test positivity red zone are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Washington (CNN). Bonus Reads: “'Epicenter of the epicenter': Young people partying in Miami Beach despite COVID-19 threat,” (USA Today); “Utah meeting on masks is canceled when residents without masks pack room,” (NBC News); and “‘This is real': Doctors, nurses who helped New York with coronavirus surge warn their home states” (NBC News).

U.S. Should Invest $75 Billion in Testing, Says Bipartisan Committee in Rockefeller Foundation Report

The “impending disaster” of the pandemic “was not and is not inevitable,” write the authors of a 55-page report released by the Rockefeller Foundation. “America can function safely, even as we fight Covid-19. Other countries have shown that a better alternative is possible.” The report emphasizes that “testing is the only way out of our present disaster, and it will remain the case until a vaccine or effective therapeutics are widely available.” The authors are a bipartisan committee of industry experts, scientists, and health officials, including several former U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioners.

The report calls for 30 million tests per week, substantially more than the current 4.5 million per week, and calls for reducing test turnaround time to 48 hours. The current turnaround time of 5-14 days makes the tests almost useless in controlling the spread of the disease. As we noted in previous briefs, a report in April by the Rockefeller Foundation said 3 million tests a week, gradually increasing to 30 million tests a week, are needed to effectively and safely open the American economy, but the authors now say that the rate of testing must increase even faster. A study by Harvard University’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics said the U.S. needs 5 million tests a day, eventually increasing to 20 million tests a day (CNN, Vice, NYT). The Safra Center report was co-authored by New America CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter and was also endorsed by New America. This “crisis demands immediate federal funding,” write the new report’s authors. “Congress took a first step by including $25 billion for testing in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. This plan requires another $75 billion as soon as possible, because tests should be free and accessible to all who need them.”

The plan’s price tag of $75 billion may seem high, but it is small compared to its potential benefits and the estimated $300 billion to $400 billion cost of shutdowns to the U.S. economy, says Paul Romer, one of the authors of the report and the co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in economics (STAT). “There is actually a pretty broad consensus among Republicans and Democrats in Congress to back this level of spending on testing,” Romer said, but approval for the funding may become mired in what Romer calls the less important political fight over extending unemployment benefits. If Congress fails to approve new funding for testing before the August recess, that would be the “worst outcome,” he said.

New Study on Contact Tracing Says “Minimising Testing Delay Had the Largest Impact on Reducing Onward Transmissions”

According to a new study published in The Lancet Public Health from the Utrecht University in the Netherlands, the faster coronavirus tests can be conducted and reported, the more effective contact tracing will be. Further, “minimising testing delay had the largest impact on reducing onward transmissions. Optimising testing and tracing coverage and minimising tracing delays, for instance with app-based technology, further enhanced contact tracing effectiveness, with the potential to prevent up to 80% of all transmissions,” the authors emphasize. According to CNN, which reported on the new study, in order to reduce the spread of the virus, three factors must be met: testing needs to take place as soon as a person develops coronavirus symptoms; contact tracing must start the same day the testing results are returned; and 100 percent of contact tracing coverage must be met. Further, CNN notes, “With a testing delay of more than three days, not even perfect contact tracing could keep the spread of the virus from accelerating.” The researchers highlight how effective contact tracing apps can be because of how fast they can navigate the potential virus spread. However, if five days or more pass after a person has tested positive for the virus, contact tracing with an app does not significantly aid the contact tracing process. As we have noted in previous briefs, not all contact tracing apps are created alike. As Center for Global Health and Massachusetts General Hospital’s Louise Ivers and Daniel Weitzner state, “This is not to claim that mobile apps are lacking in promise, but they do remain unproven as a public health intervention. Therefore, as jurisdictions around the world roll out exposure notification apps, there are crucial questions that must be investigated to understand the efficacy of these apps and to make adjustments necessary to build user trust and adoption, if they are to make a contribution to pandemic response” (Lancet).

As we noted in previous briefs, countries have had mixed experience with contact tracing applications. In the United States, states are depending on contact tracing applications to help them track the continuous spread of the coronavirus, but anecdotal evidence across the country shows that many of the apps are not ready to be deployed. The Wall Street Journal reports that the pool of apps, “is a patchwork of buggy or little-used apps, made by partners ranging from startups on shoestring budgets to academics to consulting firms. Some are working with location-tracking firms that have been under fire from privacy advocates.” There is no central countrywide app being used. Some states are paying significant sums for exclusive apps, others are paying nothing. Some states paid for apps before tech giants like Google and Apple started developing their own. The government in the United Kingdom decided to abandon a nearly three month effort in June to create a centralized contract tracing app. The National Health Service (NHS) planned to switch to an alternative designed by Apple and Google (Reuters). This previous app was meant to track phones via Bluetooth technology and keep anonymized data in an NHS database, but this version was not supported by Apple and Google. Norway halted the use of its mobile phone contact tracing app, called Smittestopp (infection stop), after the country’s data privacy watchdog said it was more invasive than the situation warranted (Straits Times, Politico). South Korea and Singapore have effectively used contact tracing, including apps, to slow the spread of the virus (NatGeo, Harvard Business Review). Bonus Read: “Data secrecy is crippling attempts to slow COVID-19’s spread in U.S., epidemiologists warn,” (Science).

U.S. Bureau of Prisons: 3,600 Inmates and 300 Prison Staff Have Tested Positive for the Coronavirus

According to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons’ counts, at least seven prisons in the BOP system have at least 100 inmates or more who have tested positive for the coronavirus. Four have 300 or more cases, and one has over 1,100 (BOP). Coronavirus infections at Federal Correctional Institution (FCI) at Seagoville, a federal prison in northern Texas, have increased to over 1,000 recently, and one inmate has died. The facility only has 1,798 total inmates (NBC News). The second and third largest outbreaks are in Butner Low Federal Correctional Institution in North Carolina, which has 1,109 inmates, and Elkton Federal Correctional Institution in Ohio, which has 2,212 inmates. Each of those prisons has over 300 current coronavirus cases, but Butner has over 320 recovered inmates and Elkton has over 670 recovered inmates (BOP). The FCI at Seagoville case count is particularly alarming because it had 668 inmates test positive just last week, reported NBC Dallas. The inmates at Seagoville have “complained to loved ones that conditions have been deteriorating since March…Prisoners have been confined to their cells since March and the air-conditioning system is not working.” According to NBC News’ reports of the BOP data, almost 3,600 federal prison inmates and over 300 staff have tested positive for the coronavirus. Further, 97 inmates have died from COVID-19, as well as one staff member.

Vaccine Candidates: Johnson & Johnson to Begin Phase I Trial on July 22 with Phase III Planned for September; Russia to Begin Phase III Trial in August After Completing Phase I Trial Last Week, Expects Approval in August

Johnson & Johnson (J&J) plans to start its Phase I trial of its vaccine candidate this week, aiming to enroll more than 1,000 participants, starting in Belgium on July 22 and in the U.S. next week (WSJ). If all goes well, J&J plan to start a large Phase III clinical trial in late September, and is hoping to get strong data on the vaccine by the end of the year, although such trials can take six months or longer to obtain the necessary data. If the candidate is successful, J&J projects that shots will be available early in 2021, with up to a billion doses by the year’s end. As part of its funding agreement for $456 million from the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), J&J has agreed to allocate potential vaccine doses to the U.S. government and is in talks with the government of Japan and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for other allocations of its potential vaccine (HHS, Reuters). Bonus Read: “Inside Johnson & Johnson’s Nonstop Hunt for a Coronavirus Vaccine,” (NYT).

Russia plans to manufacture “30 million doses of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine domestically this year, with the potential to manufacture a further 170 million abroad,” writes Reuters, citing Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. Last week amid some unclear news coverage, as we noted in Tuesday’s brief, Russia’s Gamaleya Institute completed a month-long Phase I trial of its vaccine candidate in 38 participants. Usually a Phase II trial would be the next step, but Russia plans to begin a Phase III trial of several thousand participants in August and appears to expect very rapid results. “We believe that based on the current results it will be approved in Russia in August and in some other countries in September..., making it possibly the first vaccine to be approved in the world,” Dmitriev said in an interview.

As we covered in earlier briefs, three coronavirus vaccine candidates are currently in Phase III trials, with two more expected to enter Phase III trials this month. The candidate from Oxford University and AstraZeneca is in Phase III trials in the U.K., Brazil, and South Africa (In the Pipeline, Reuters); full results from their Phase I trial are eagerly awaited, with publication expected Monday in the Lancet (Bloomberg, Telegraph). China’s Sinopharm began a 15,000-participant trial in the United Arab Emirates in July, and Sinovac began a 9,000-participant Phase III trial in Brazil, also in July (Sinovac). Moderna expects to begin a 30,000-participant Phase III trial in the U.S. on July 27 (CNBC, Bloomberg), and Pfizer and BioNTech will select one of four versions of their vaccine candidate for a 30,000-person Phase II trial to begin in the U.S. and globally at the end of July (WaPo, In the Pipeline). Both Moderna’s and Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine candidates use mRNA technology, which has not yet produced an approved vaccine; however, if they prove to be successful, they would be easier and cheaper to produce than traditional vaccines that are based on weakened or inactivated viruses. Bonus Reads: “Covid Vaccine Frontrunner is Months Ahead of Her Competition,” (Bloomberg); “What Are mRNA Vaccines, and Could They Work Against COVID-19?” (Smithsonian); and “Brazil's coronavirus chaos provides a global laboratory for the vaccine race,” (CNN).

New Preprint Manuscript from the U.K. Shows Antibodies Higher in Severe COVID-19 Patients Compared to Mild Cases, but Antibody Levels Decline About a Month After the Onset of Viral Symptoms; T-Cell Response May Play a Role in Longer-Lasting Immunity, New Study in Nature Suggests

According to a new preprint manuscript posted on medRxiv by researchers at King’s College London, Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, and the University of Kent in the United Kingdom, “at the peak of antibody production, people with severe COVID-19 symptoms had higher levels of antibodies than had people with mild disease,” reports Nature, “ However, in most people, antibody levels began to fall about a month after symptoms appeared, sometimes to nearly undetectable levels.” The manuscript notes that antibodies can be seen in “most infected individuals 10-15 days following the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.” The researchers collected samples up to 94 days after the onset of symptoms from 65 confirmed coronavirus-infected patients and 31 healthcare workers who had positive antibody test results. The population studied was 77.2 percent male and the average age was 55.2-years-old in a range of 23-years-old to 95-years-old. Ethnicity information was not collected. The researchers found that those who had more severe cases of the coronavirus had antibodies for a longer period of time, compared to those with mild cases. The researchers believe this study has implications for the possibility of reinfection, as well as how long a vaccine can protect an individual.

Antibodies, while very important, are “not the whole story” of immunity, writes drug researcher Derek Lowe (In the Pipeline). A new study in Nature by a team in Singapore found that convalescent COVID-19 patients show T-cell responses—a type of immune response—to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. While little is known about how long the T-cell response lasts to COVID-19, the authors found that patients who recovered from SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) still have T-cell responses to the SARS-CoV virus that causes SARS, even after 17 years. Lowe speculates that if T-cells help provide immunity to COVID-19, that “is perhaps the way to reconcile the apparent paradox between (1) antibody responses that seem to be dropping week by week in convalescent patients but (2) few (if any) reliable reports of actual re-infection. That would be good news indeed.” Lowe emphasizes that the study raises further research questions about the T-cell response to COVID-19, how protective it may be, and how long it may last. The study also found, surprisingly, that 19 out of 37 people with no known exposure to COVID-19 or SARS and no antibodies to either virus, still showed a T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that exposure to other coronaviruses may confer some degree of protection against COVID-19.

As we’ve noted in previous briefs, there has been speculation about how long a person’s immunity to this particular coronavirus will last for, basing theories on other human coronaviruses and their likeness to SARS-CoV-2. Researchers from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health published a study in Science Magazine in May examining the possibility that the novel coronavirus remains potent for several more years through seasonal outbreaks, somewhat similar to flu seasons. The length of time it would take for SARS-CoV-2 to die out depends on the immunity once contracted. The research looked at previous human coronavirus cases to determine possible lengths of the virus life. Other human coronaviruses (human coronaviruses were first identified in the 1960s) OC43 and HKU1 (known as beta coronaviruses), if contracted, only give immunity for less than a year, so they would not offer a great deal of protection against SARS-CoV-2 had someone had exposure to either. The best case scenario is if immunity is permanent, then the SARS-CoV-2 virus could die out by 2025, but the pandemic will be present until possibly 2022 (STAT). Bonus Read: “You’re a Senior. How Do You Calculate Coronavirus Risk Right Now?” (NYT).

Weather Forecasts Are Less Accurate During the Pandemic, Could Lead to Less Preparedness Before Extreme Weather

A new study published with American Geophysical Union (AGU)’s Geophysical Research Letters by the United Kingdom’s Lancaster University’s Environment Centre has found that global weather forecasts are less accurate than they normally would be due to a drop in air travel (Science Daily, CNN). Science Daily highlights that the report notes: “Aircraft typically inform weather forecasts by recording information about air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind along their flight path. With significantly fewer planes in the sky this spring, forecasts of these meteorological conditions have become less accurate and the impact is more pronounced as forecasts extend further out in time.” The report notes that as hurricane season is quickly approaching in the Western Hemisphere, having advance notice of extreme weather is critical to preparedness (AGU). However, there is “larger deterioration in longer-term forecasts” during the pandemic due to a decrease in “50-75% of aircraft observations globally,” at least reported between March through May this year. The author believes that “establishing more meteorological stations in observation-sparse regions and report data to WMO [World Meteorological Organization] can improve the weather forecast and effectively buffer the impact of global emergencies.” 

Around the World

Coronavirus Sparks Protests Around the World

Large protests have erupted against governments across several countries after coronavirus and the accompanying lockdown measures brought economic problems, corruption, and incompetence to light (CNN). In Israel, protesters demonstrated against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing an ongoing trial on bribery and breach of trust charges, and his handling of the pandemic. In spite of seemingly having the virus under control two months ago, the country’s cases rose rapidly in recent weeks, with up to 1,600 new cases a day. In Serbia, protests took over Belgrade last week after the government announced a plan to introduce a curfew in response to a dramatic surge in coronavirus cases. After two nights of rioting, the government gave up on the curfew and instead reimposed a ban on gatherings of more than 10 people and closed all hospitality and retail outlets between 9 p.m. and 6 p.m. But some smaller protests and rallies continued in Belgrade and other cities as dissent over Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić. Hunger protests erupted in Lebanon in May and protests have flared up in Bulgaria over allegations of corruption.

Europe

EU Leaders Reach Third Day of Negotiations, But Still Can’t Agree on Recovery Plan

EU leaders are trying to hammer out a post-coronavirus economic recovery plan at a summit in Brussels, but the negotiations hadn’t reached a conclusion after the end of the unscheduled third day of meetings. Some member states argue that the €750 billion ($857 billion) package is too large and should be doled out as loans, not grants (BBC). The summit began on Friday and is the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders since lockdowns began in March. Italy and Spain are desperate to revive their economies, both of which have suffered because of high case numbers and strict lockdowns. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Europe was “under the blackmail of the ‘frugals’” and said the negotiations were “heated.” Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte was singled out by one leader this weekend as the “man responsible for the whole mess” and the Spanish and Italian diplomats have called Rutte “Mr. No No No” (Reuters). On Saturday, a crucial late-night meeting including Rutte, Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President Emmanuel Macron ended abruptly in a dispute over how much of the package should be disbursed as grants and how much as loans (Bloomberg). German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Sunday: "I still cannot say whether we will find a solution. There is a lot of goodwill but also many different positions."

U.K. Plans for Millions of Antibody Tests

The U.K. is planning to distribute millions of free coronavirus antibody tests after the tests were successful in secret trials, according to reports read by the Guardian. The tests are based on a finger-prick and can determine in 20 minutes if a person has had coronavirus. They were found to be 98.6 percent accurate in trials in humans in June (Daily Telegraph). The test was developed by the UK Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC), a partnership between Oxford University and leading U.K. diagnostics firms. The tests are expected to gain regulatory approval in the coming weeks and tens of thousands of prototypes are being manufactured across the U.K. in hopes of the tests being made available for a mass screening program by the end of the year. However, it is still unknown whether a person who tests positive coronavirus antibodies is immune to future infections. 

Millions of Catalans Urged to Stay Home

On Friday, Catalonia urged some four million people, including residents of Barcelona, to stay home—the strongest measure taken to combat new clusters since Spain emerged from its nationwide lockdown one month ago (Reuters). Barcelona, its suburbs, and the areas of Segria and Noguera were told to shop online and only leave home to go to work, visit a doctor, or carry out other essential activities. On Sunday, officials expanded the request to include more than 96,000 other people living in Figueres and Vilafant in the province of Girona, to also stay home (Reuters). According to Catalonia’s regional health ministry, there were 1,226 new cases on Saturday. Officials also banned meetings of over 10 people, ordered bars and restaurants to limit their capacity to 50 percent inside and have 6 feet between tables outside. Spain was one of Europe’s hardest-hit countries with more than 28,000 deaths due to COVID-19. It ended its strict national lockdown on June 21 but more than 170 new infection clusters have been identified since then. Local authorities have tried to fight these clusters with local restrictions. 

Southern Europe is Open Again for Tourism, but Tourists are Lacking

From Portugal to Italy to Greece, tourism has returned to southern Europe, but its restart has been slowed by new outbreaks in some countries (NYT). Bookings in Italy are down by 80 percent, despite incentives by the government. Ferries that usually carry boatloads of tourists to the Greek islands are at half their capacity. Noticeably absent from many of the vacation hotspots are holiday makers from Britain and Germany, who typically spend billions of euros in the southern part of the bloc each summer. In an effort to make up for the lost income, Italy has tried to promote national tourism by issuing a so-called holiday bonus, a 150-euro voucher per Italian for lodging, up to €500 per family. Dario Franceschini, the Italian minister of culture and tourism, told Parliament this month that about 400,000 vouchers had been issued, worth €183 million in total. But reports by Italian newspapers claim that only a limited number of hotels accept the voucher. In the Canary Islands, only about 20 percent of hotel rooms have reopened, since the area’s dependence on flights to bring the tourists in has made the industry particularly vulnerable to the downturn. “We are doing our best to highlight the fact that we now have almost no virus problem — but of course we cannot transport the tourists here ourselves,” said Jorge Marichal, a Tenerife hotelier who is president of Cehat, the Spanish hotel confederation.

Americas

Argentina Announces Lockdown Will End, Also Reports Highest Daily Case Count 

On Friday, Argentina’s government announced that it will gradually loosen a lockdown of Buenos Aires that has lasted nearly four months, saying the gradual return to normal activities will occur in several stages (Reuters). The first stage will last until August 2 and will permit hair salons, shops, and some professional services to resume business. Outdoor recreation will also be permitted. Schools will remain closed. Later that same day, the government reported 4,518 new cases of coronavirus, Argentina’s highest daily count yet. 

Cuba Celebrates Zero Cases of Local Transmission

On Sunday, Cuba said that there were no new domestic cases of COVID-19 for the first time in 130 days (Reuters). The country is now moving into the final phase of reopening and is resuming normal activities, albeit with masks and social distancing. Only a handful of new cases were reported in the country in the past week and all were in Havana. The country’s success has been attributed to the robust and free community-based healthcare system, door-to-door testing in search of carriers, isolation of those who were sick, and robust contract tracing. 

Bonus Read: “Brazil Health Workers May Have Spread Coronavirus to Indigenous People” (NYT).

Africa

Over 2,000 Healthcare Workers in Ghana Have Tested Positive

The Ghana Health Service said that over 2,000 healthcare workers have tested positive for the coronavirus since the outbreak began in March, six of whom have died (CNN). "I want to be clear," Dr. Anthony Nsiah-Asare, a health adviser to Ghana’s president, said to CNN on Thursday. "The number of those infected is a cumulative figure and not a number that was a result over a short period of time." Ghana faced a shortage of personal protective equipment that made it difficult for medical workers to adequately protect themselves at the start of the outbreak, but "over 90 percent of the infected has recovered and we now have a sufficient supply of PPE," Dr. Patrick Kuma-Aboagye, director general of the Ghana Health Service, said to CNN on Thursday.

Experts Think South Africa Data Could be Undercounting COVID-19 Deaths

Health experts in South Africa are worried deaths from COVID-19 could be undercounted. According to a report by Bloomberg: "The country recorded 10,994 excess deaths between May 6 and July 6, according to the South African Medical Research Council, which publishes weekly figures. The provinces with some of the highest confirmed infection rates—Gauteng and the Eastern Cape—are experiencing a particularly sharp increase. Compared with the predicted number of natural deaths from historical data in the week ending July 3, the Eastern Cape had 90% more and Gauteng 71% more, the latest report showed." Excess deaths are potential deaths due to coronavirus, for example, a patient could be listed as an excess death because they were never tested and had symptoms or because they died after being unable to seek treatment in a hospital for coronavirus. In the Eastern Cape, health experts have also noticed a significant underreporting of cases coming from villages.

Asia and Oceania

Hong Kong Tightens Restrictions as Cases Rise

Hong Kong again tightened restrictions on Sunday, telling nonessential civil servants to work from home as the city recorded more than 100 cases in the past 24 hours, the most since the pandemic began in late January (Reuters). Amusement parks, gyms, and a variety of other venues will remain closed for another week and restaurants can only provide takeaway after 6 p.m. Face masks were made mandatory in indoor public areas. “The situation is very serious and there is no sign of it coming under control,” Hong Kong’s current chief executive Carrie Lam said at a news conference. 

India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Denying Justice to Activists, Critics 

In recent weeks, almost a dozen prominent activists and potentially dozens of other demonstrators have been detained in India under sedition and antiterrorism laws without access to justice due to coronavirus restrictions. Lawyers and activists say that the lockdown that has been put in place to curb the coronavirus has also closed courts for weeks, made it difficult to impossible to file bail applications, and prevented in-person private meetings between lawyers and their clients (NYT). Rights groups have claimed that the arrests of the activists and demonstrators have been arbitrary and used to quiet any criticism of what some claim is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda that had led to sectarian violence and rioting before the pandemic struck. According to the New York Times: “Among those in custody are a youth activist who raised awareness about police brutality against Muslims; an academic who gave a speech opposing the citizenship law; and Ms. Narwal, a graduate student who co-founded Pinjra Tod, or Break the Cage, a women’s collective that organized some of the largest rallies.”

Australian PM Delays Parliament’s Opening

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison delayed the opening of Parliament on Saturday as the coronavirus continued to surge in the country’s two most heavily-populated states (Reuters). The start of the session is now pushed until August 4 with lawmakers currently scheduled to meet on August 24. “The government cannot ignore the risk to parliamentarians, their staff, the staff within the parliament and the broader community,” Morrison said in a written statement, adding he acted based on the advice of medical authorities. Victoria state reported 363 new cases on Sunday following 217 new cases on Saturday and officials have made face masks mandatory for all activities outside the home (Reuters). In neighboring New South Wales, the highest number of new cases in three months was recorded on Saturday, with 18 cases that included three people with no identifiable links to existing clusters, meaning they likely contracted it through community transmission (Guardian).

U.S. Government & Politics

Congress Prepares to Debate Extension of Unemployment Benefits, Stimulus Checks, and Funding for Health Agencies in Economic Relief Bill; Trump Refuses Increased Funding for States and CDC 

According to the Washington Post, the Trump administration is trying to block “billions of dollars” in an upcoming relief package for states to increase testing and contact tracing, as well as funds allocated to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (WaPo). The strong stance from the White House will further complicate debates between Republicans and Democrats, who are already at odds on issues including the extension of unemployment benefits and stimulus checks. The relief bill will be debated in Congress over the next two weeks, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell expected to unveil a proposed relief plan this week. The Republican plan allocates a reported $25 billion to states to ramp up testing and contact tracing, $10 billion to the CDC, and a combined $25.5 billion to the State Department and Pentagon (NYT). The White House is reportedly against allocating any additional funds to states and the CDC, and wants to cut foreign aid distributed by the State Department and Pentagon for coronavirus relief efforts (WaPo, NYT). 

Congress is under pressure to approve the economic relief package before the August recess, when the additional $600 weekly unemployment benefits are set to expire. Democrats are pushing for a continuation of the benefits through January 2021, while Republicans are worried the additional funds disincentivize people from returning to work (WSJ). Conversely, Trump said he “would consider not signing” a relief bill that does not include a payroll tax cut, putting him at odds with some GOP lawmakers (WaPo). A University of Chicago study found that 68 percent of those eligible for the $600 weekly unemployment benefits got more money from the benefits than from their normal wages. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that “the $15 billion a week in federal spending has provided vital support to an economy staggering from the effects of the pandemic” (WSJ). Over 25 million Americans are currently using the additional unemployment funds, with many struggling financially as businesses remain shut and unemployment high (WSJ). 

Fed Extends Main Street Lending Program to Nonprofits 

On Friday, the Federal Reserve announced new lending opportunities for nonprofit organizations through the Main Street Lending Program. The Fed also loosened its qualifying terms, allowing for smaller businesses with a minimum of 10 employees and up to 15,000 employees to apply. The $600 billion loan program already supports hospitals and schools, but will now support nonprofits that employ 8 percent of the nation’s workforce, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the change, saying “nonprofits provide vital services across the country and employ millions of Americans. We have listened carefully and adapted our approach so that we can best support them in carrying out their vital mission during this extraordinary time” (Bloomberg, WSJ). 

U.S. Economy

Economic Recovery Contingent on Vaccine and Reducing New Outbreaks 

Experts predict any sustained economic recovery will rely on a vaccine and the ability to contain the spread of infection (WSJ). While the economy began to rebound following the global recession in the beginning of the year, recent virus surges in the U.S. and around the world have challenged the Trump administration’s promise of a “v-shaped” recovery (Forbes). Rising cases in Texas, Florida, Arizona, and California caused businesses to reclose and have threatened new stay-at-home orders, while jobless claims in Florida, California, and Georgia are spiking (WSJ, NYT). In addition to the direct effects of businesses shutting down, consumers are psychologically impacted by the surges, remaining wary of the virus and curbing their normal spending habits. Randall Kroszner, previous Governor of the Federal Reserve, cautioned against wishful thinking, saying, “If we continue to get these flare-ups, this could lead us into a W-pattern” of slight economic recovery followed by another downturn (WSJ). ​

U.S. Society

Polls Suggest Many Americans Unwilling to Get a Coronavirus Vaccine

Polls find that many Americans would be unwilling to get a coronavirus vaccine, threatening the $10 billion investment in Operation Warp Speed to develop a vaccine and curb the spread of the virus throughout the country (NYT). One poll found that only about half of Americans would be willing to take a vaccine. The polls signal a complication to President Trump’s plan to have a vaccine ready as early as the fall and deliver 300 million doses by the beginning of 2021 (Business Insider). Skepticism about the coronavirus vaccine follows a recent anti-vaccination trend in the U.S. across educational, socio-economic, and political demographics. Mistrust of the coronavirus vaccine is particularly strong amongst Black communities, already disproportionately impacted by the virus, likely stemming from previous medical experiments Black, as well as an increase in conspiracy theories, and distrust of the government. A task force, led by Johns Hopkins University and consisting of epidemiologists and vaccine behavior specialists, found that nearly zero dollars from Operation Warp Speed are devoted to building confidence in the coronavirus vaccine. In a recent report, the task force wrote: “If poorly designed and executed, a Covid-19 vaccination campaign in the U.S. could undermine the increasingly tenuous belief in vaccines and the public health authorities that recommend them — especially among people most at risk of Covid-19 impacts.” Experts advise undertaking confidence-building measures to increase support for the vaccine, including working through community leaders, combating misinformation, and ensuring the vaccine is free and easily accessible, particularly to communities of color (NYT). 

Masking Policies Shift Across the U.S., Trend Towards Using Masks Amongst Individuals, Companies, and States 

Even as President Trump has resisted calls for a national mask mandate, Americans are increasingly moving towards adopting masking. In an interview with Fox News aired on Sunday, President Trump announced he would not pass a national mandate requiring masks to be worn in public, saying, "No, I want people to have a certain freedom, and I don't believe in that, no” (CNN). Trump’s announcement comes after Robert Redfield, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Anthony Fauci, coronavirus task force member, and many other prominent public health experts have advised for masks to be worn in public. Not waiting for a federal mandate, the majority of states now require masks in public (BBC). Additionally, nine of the largest in-person retail companies now require masks, including Costco, Walmart, Kroger, CVS, Walgreens, and Target (WaPo). However, Dollar Tree quietly reversed its masking requirement last Thursday, now “requesting” masks be worn in the store (Forbes). Dollar Tree was the center of one of the first violent episodes regarding masks, when a security guard was shot and killed at a Dollar Tree in Flint, Michigan after trying to enforce the state’s mask mandate (Forbes). 

A New York Times study found that around 80 percent of Americans say they frequently or always wear masks when near others (NYT). While still below public health recommendations, the percent of people wearing masks in the U.S. is relatively high compared to other countries around the world. Experts found that masking behavior is similar to peer pressure, where those hesitant to wear masks are more willing to partake if people around them are wearing masks. The study also found that partisanship is the biggest indicator of masking, with Republicans less likely to wear masks often. However, the data shows an increase in masking following increased coronavirus risk, which might lead to a greater willingness to wear a mask amongst Republicans in the Southern and Western states currently surging in coronavirus cases (NYT). Currently, at least 39 states have some form of mask mandate in place (CNN).

Bonus Reads: “Public Transit Officials Fear Virus Could Send Systems Into ‘Death Spiral,’” (NYT); and “A med-school staffer dived into online groups to debunk coronavirus conspiracy theories. Would anyone listen?” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Nature features a breakdown of all of the available coronavirus testing technologies.

The New York Times released its new coronavirus drug and treatment tracker.

Eva Luo, Toni Golen, and Alexa B. Kimball discuss the important role healthcare providers play in helping to identify intimate partner violence during the pandemic (STAT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk and David Sterman and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Narisara Murray, with Brianna Kablack and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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