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February 24, 2021 - Brief Issue 157

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Will See 240 Million More Doses of the COVID-19 Vaccines by the End of Next Month, 212 Million Doses Distributed Worldwide; Mexico First North American Country to Receive Russian Covid-19 Vaccine; Fauci: CDC to Soon Release Post-Vaccine Guidance (Health & Science)

New CDC Report Finds “Educators Might Play a Central Role in in-School Transmission Networks” of Covid-19 (Health & Science)

New Study Finds Longer Time between Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine Doses Makes Particular Vaccine More Effective (Health & Science)

Several International Studies Find the Effectiveness of Contact Tracing Mobile Apps in Helping to Prevent the Spread of the Coronavirus (Health & Science)

Afghanistan Begins Vaccine Campaign (Around the World)

World Bank Threatens to Stop Vaccine Funding to Lebanon (Around the World)

South Korea Will Have Herd Immunity by Autumn, Says PM (Around the World)

COVAX Delivers First Vaccine Doses to Ghana (Around the World)

EU to Agree on Coordinated Approach to Curbs on Travel (Around the World)

New Poll: Cuomo Approval Rating Drops But Still Strong (U.S. Government & Politics)

Minimum Wage Proposal Divides Democrats (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fed Likely to Maintain Near Zero Interest Rates (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Reshaping Oscars Process (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 28,261,589 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 502,660 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 342,700,904 tests and distributed 82,114,370 vaccine doses, with 65,032,083 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 112,149,127 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,468,267 deaths. At least 63,325,691 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. Will See 240 Million More Doses of the COVID-19 Vaccines by the End of Next Month, 212 Million Doses Distributed Worldwide; Mexico First North American Country to Receive Russian Covid-19 Vaccine; Fauci: CDC to Soon Release Post-Vaccine Guidance

According to a report by CNN, over 212 million Covid-19 vaccine doses have been distributed and administered in at least 98 countries and territories. The very first vaccine dose, which was created by Pfizer/BioNTech, was received by an individual in the United Kingdom. The rolling seven-day average of administered Covid-19 doses worldwide is 4.7 million as of February 22, 2021. Countries and territories with the largest number of doses per 100 people include Gibraltar (37.4 percent of the population is vaccinated with two doses), Israel (35.5 percent of the population is vaccinated with two doses), and the Seychelles (22 percent of the population is vaccinated with two doses), while the United States leads in the total number of doses distributed, followed by China, the United Kingdom, and then India (all are above 10 million; the United States has distributed over 64 million doses, which accounts for 5.8 percent of the population being fully vaccinated).

According to testimonies by representatives of Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, and Novavax at a U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the Committee on Energy and Commerce meeting, the United States will receive another 240 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines by the end of March (CNN, WaPo). Both Pfizer and Moderna have pledged to deliver 220 million doses combined, and Johnson & Johnson will deliver 20 million doses. In addition, Pfizer plans to increase the number of available doses each week to over 13 million within the next few weeks, an increase from the current 4 to 5 million they are currently producing. Johnson & Johnson plans to deliver 20 million single dose vaccines once it is approved for emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Moderna will increase its number of vaccine shipments to over 40 million a month by April. Lastly, Novavax promises to deliver 110 million doses by the third quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, Mexico is the first North American country to receive the coronavirus vaccine manufactured in Russia. Sputnik V, the name of the Russian vaccine, has been approved for use in over 30 countries worldwide (CNN).

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Anthony Fauci said on Tuesday that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will likely soon release guidance for Americans who have been vaccinated with two doses (CNN, Reuters). However, it is unlikely that life will drastically change in the immediate term since about 66,000 Americans are infected with the coronavirus each day, reports USA Today. On Monday, Fauci said during a Covid-19 response press conference, “There are things, even if you're vaccinated, that you're not going to be able to do in society, for example, indoor dining, theaters, (going) places where people congregate,” adding, “For that reason, we want to make sure that people continue to wear masks despite the fact that they're vaccinated.”

New CDC Report Finds “Educators Might Play a Central Role in in-School Transmission Networks” of Covid-19

On Monday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report highlighting the importance teachers may play in Covid-19 transmission in schools (Reuters, CNBC, U.S. News). The new report referenced a study conducted in a Georgia school district of 2,600 students (or 80 percent of elementary school students across the district) and 700 school staff members who attended in-person learning between December 1, 2020 and January 22, 2021. In this district, “nine clusters of COVID-19 cases involving 13 educators and 32 students at six elementary schools [were found]. Two clusters involved probable educator-to-educator transmission that was followed by educator-to-student transmission in classrooms and resulted in approximately one half (15 of 31) of school-associated cases” (CDC). Some of the preventative measures implemented by the Georgia district were not able to mitigate the spread, such as children sitting less than three feet from one another, even with plastic dividers placed between their desks (U.S. News). In the nine identified clusters, four of them included a teacher as the first identified case; in another cluster, a student was identified as the first identified case; and the first identified cases for the additional four clusters were not known (CNBC). The report noted that “Educators might play a central role in in-school transmission networks” (CDC); however, the research had limitations because the school district was not able to determine if Covid-19 transmission took place inside or outside of the schools. Yet, as a result, the CDC recommends vaccinating teachers when possible (Reuters).

New Study Finds Longer Time between Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine Doses Makes Particular Vaccine More Effective

A new study published in the Lancet found that the coronavirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca was more effective the longer a person waited between their first and second doses. The study included 17,000 people: half received the vaccine and half received a placebo. The data showed that “the longer the gap between jabs, the better the vaccine protected against Covid-19” (Nature). For individuals who received their second vaccine dose less than six weeks after the first, the vaccine was 55 percent effective, but 81 percent effective if individuals waited more than 12 weeks after their first. In addition, the data showed that a single dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine was 76 percent effective for the first three months. In Monday’s brief, we noted that last Friday, Brown University School of Public Health Dean Ashish Jha promoted the idea of pushing back the dates of providing second coronavirus doses in order to inoculate larger swaths of the population, though still advocating for a second dose. However, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci responded that single doses may not be sufficient to build up a sufficient immune response in the body, particularly against recent virus variants (CNN). This conversation was not specific to one vaccine offering.

Several International Studies Find the Effectiveness of Contact Tracing Mobile Apps in Helping to Prevent the Spread of the Coronavirus

As we noted in previous briefs, all kinds of contact tracing apps have emerged during the pandemic. Some are public private partnerships, some are county, region, or state driven, and others are countrywide. Several recent international studies have concluded that contact tracing apps can help quell the spread of the virus, if the data is effectively used by public health officials (Nature). The Google/Apple Exposure Notification (GAEN) system is the primary tool that contact tracing apps use, which employs Bluetooth to determine when phones are physically near one another. That signal proximity helps to identify possible coronavirus contact once a known case is identified. Also, Nature notes, “The GAEN system prevents health authorities from gathering personal information about app users or their devices, thereby helping to address privacy concerns raised early in the pandemic.” However, not all contact tracing apps follow the same privacy protocols.

One successful app example comes from the United Kingdom. The study, though not yet peer-reviewed, found that the National Health Service (NHS) Covid-19 app “may have helped averted more than 224,000 infections between October and December 2020” due to frequent “exposure notifications” to encourage every individual who tested positive to reach out to their contacts with the test results, reports Nature. However, University of Zurich epidemiologist Viktor von Wyl says that it may be difficult to directly draw the connection between app use and averting coronavirus cases. Another study in Spain’s Canary Islands found that their Radar Covid app “notified roughly twice the number of people exposed to simulated infections, compared with manual contact tracing.” In Switzerland, a preprint analysis found that their SwissCovid app “boosted the number of people in quarantine in Zurich by 5%, of which 17% of these people tested positive.” No contact tracing app is perfect, and companies are looking to streamline processes and focus on Covid-19 risk. However, von Wyl points out, “It’s a fine balance between adding more information, or getting more information out of it, but then possibly losing more users because fears of privacy have increased,” (Nature).

How Studying Superspreader Events Can Help Curb Coronavirus Transmission

We’ve noted in several daily briefs how superspreader events have contributed to the widespread transmission of the coronavirus. Now, researchers believe studying them more closely may help to control the virus’ spread (Nature). Infectious-diseases modeler at the London School of Hygiene & tropical Medicine Akira Endo noticed specific aspects of superspreader events before they became a mainstream transmission concern. For example, superspreader events do not evenly distribute the virus. In Wuhan, in the early phase of the pandemic, “infected individuals weren’t immediately causing exponential local outbreaks,” reports Nature. This viral spreading pattern is very similar to other human coronaviruses, such as SARS-CoV, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV). What’s more, similar patterns take place with the spread of Ebola, tuberculosis, and even smallpox. Researchers now know some of the classic characteristics that lead to superspreading events: indoor events and bad ventilation. Further, Nature highlights, activities that produce a high quantity of aerosolized droplets, such as “singing and aerobic exercise,” are part of the equation. Endo found that “around 10% of cases in countries outside China accounted for 80% of secondary infections up to the end of February.” And, with new variants on the rise, this number may continue to balloon. Infectious-diseases modeler at the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub in San Francisco Lucy Li says, “There will likely be an increase in both the frequency and size of superspreading events.” Public health measures and restrictions can help curb the spread, but essential work environments are still higher risk for coronavirus spread.

Close to 150 Institutional Investors Focus Attention and Funds on Pushing ‘Fair and Equitable’ Global Response to the Pandemic

According to a new report by STAT, “Nearly 150 institutional investors that oversee combined assets worth more than $14 trillion have issued a joint call for a ‘fair and equitable’ global response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and they intend to huddle with health care companies to make progress on that goal.” These individuals are focused on increasing their funding towards the World Health Organization program ACT Accelerator, which centers on equitable distribution and production of Covid-19 vaccines and therapies. This particular program needs to fill a void in funding that amounts to $20 billion. Another target for the 148 investors is Access to Medicines Foundation that focuses on partnerships for research and development, production, pricing, and even licensing of vaccines, notes STAT. According to AXA Investment Managers executive chairman Marco Morelli, “The economic and financial damage triggered by Covid-19 knows no border,” adding, “Symmetrically, a full and lasting recovery will need to be global. If we allow the pandemic to survive in any regions, every country, even those with the most advance healthcare systems and thorough vaccination programs, will remain at risk.” According to the ONE campaign, the world’s wealthiest nations are likely to obtain more than 1 billion additional Covid-19 vaccine doses, while remaining countries have only acquired 2.5 billion total doses. According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “The longer the virus circulates, the longer trade and business will be disrupted and the longer the global recovery will take. Ending the pandemic, restoring confidence and rebooting the global economy requires all of us, in the public and private sectors, pulling in the same direction,” (STAT).

Around the World

Middle East and Central Asia

Afghanistan Begins Vaccine Campaign

A half-million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, produced by Indian manufacturer Serum Institute India, were delivered to Afghanistan’s capital city on Feb. 7 and the vaccination campaign kicked off Tuesday. The first dose was administered at the presidential palace in Kabul to Anisa Shaheed, a television reporter who has covered the pandemic (NYT). But the Afghan government faces many hurdles in its efforts to curb the spread of the virus, the first of which is the general public’s indifference to it. Many people act as if the pandemic doesn’t exist; crowds gather in bazaars and mosques, no one wears masks or pays attention to public health posters warning of Covid-19. In order to successfully inoculate people, public health officials will first have to convince them that the coronavirus exists. For those who do want to be inoculated, there is little faith in the system actually working, as the government is mired in corruption. Logistics present another challenge. As the New York Times writes, “Distributing any vaccine in a desperately poor nation consumed by unrest is a daunting logistical challenge. In addition to overcoming public suspicions and traversing dangerous territories, the Ministry of Public Health must also navigate vaccine delivery in remote provinces with poor roads and primitive infrastructure.”

World Bank Threatens to Stop Vaccine Funding to Lebanon

On Tuesday the World Bank threatened to suspend financing for coronavirus vaccines in Lebanon amid reports of favoritism and news that lawmakers were inoculated in parliament without prior approval (AP). The national vaccine plan requires people to get the shots at predetermined centers without favoritism, but on Monday lawmakers were vaccinated at a building used by the legislature ahead of the rest of the population. A top Lebanese official supervising the vaccine rollout threatened to step down, saying the rollout has been “outrageous.” The World Bank and the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies signed an agreement for independent monitoring of the vaccination program due to decades of corruption and mismanagement in the government. The World Bank has approved $34 million to pay for vaccines for 2 million people; without that assistance, Lebanon would not be able to vaccinate its population as the government is going through an unprecedented financial crisis. “Everyone has to register and wait for their turn! #nowasta,” the World Bank’s regional director, Saroj Kumar Jha, tweeted, using a Lebanese term meaning there should not be nepotism.

Asia

South Korea Will Have Herd Immunity by Autumn, Says PM

South Korea will achieve herd immunity from Covid-19 by the autumn, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun told the BBC, saying the aim is to inoculate some 800,000 people over the next month (BBC). South Korea was hit early by the coronavirus and implemented mass testing and aggressive contact tracing measures but its vaccination campaign has had a slower start. The prime minister defended the rollout, saying that it had allowed officials to learn from other countries. “It's not an easy goal to achieve but we aim to complete the first set of vaccinations on 70% of our population by the end of the third quarter in September. I believe it's possible," said Chung. “You know that Koreans are the master of speed." As we covered in yesterday’s brief, health officials will begin administering vaccines to medical staff in hospitals and care homes later this week. 

Japan Appoints Minister for Loneliness

Japan has appointed its first Minister for Loneliness earlier this month in order to combat the country’s suicde rate, which increased for the first time in 11 years during the Covid-19 pandemic. Tetsushi Sakamoto started in the position on Feb. 12 and said that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga “instructed me to examine the issue and put forward a comprehensive strategy, by coordinating with the related ministry," adding, “I hope to carry out activities to prevent social loneliness and isolation and to protect ties between people” (CNN). The suicide rate among women is especially worrisome: 6,976 women took their lives last year, nearly 15% more than in 2019 (NYT). 

Africa

COVAX Delivers First Vaccine Doses to Ghana

On Wednesday Ghana received its first doses of Covid-19 shots through the World Health Organization’s global vaccine-sharing scheme COVAX (UNICEF, Reuters). Around 600,000 doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine produced by the Serum Institute India arrived in Ghana’s capital Accra and will be used to start the vaccination drive for frontline health workers and other high-risk people. “This is a momentous occasion, as the arrival of the COVID-19 vaccines into Ghana is critical in bringing the pandemic to an end,” Anne-Claire Dufay of UNICEF Ghana and WHO country representative Francis Kasolo said in the statement. “The only way out of this crisis is to ensure that vaccinations are available for all.” The delivery to Ghana is a milestone for COVAX, which has struggled to obtain doses of the vaccine as wealthier countries compete for the supply. COVAX plans to deliver nearly 2 billion vaccine doses this year, including 1.8 billion to poorer countries. 

Europe

EU to Agree on Coordinated Approach to Curbs on Travel 

European Union government leaders will agree on Thursday to keep curbs on all non-essential travel within the EU, according to a draft document seen by Reuters. Current unilateral moves by member countries are disrupting the flow of goods within the bloc and parts of the Franco-German border are at risk of shutting completely. The leaders will meet via video conference tomorrow and Friday to discuss a coordinated approach to border curbs that still allows for the free flow of goods, but the details of that agreement remain to be seen. On Tuesday, the European Commission gave Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary and Sweden 10 days to justify their unilateral restrictions, which Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said had “gone too far.” Nine EU countries have reinstated border controls in what is normally a passport-free travel zone but the patchwork restrictions are causing confusion. Instead, the Commission is aiming for a compromise that would avoid “fragmentation and disruptions to free movement and to supply chains - something we have witnessed again the past weeks,” according to a spokesperson. 

U.S. Government & Politics

New Poll: Cuomo Approval Rating Drops But Still Strong

A new Morning Consult poll finds that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s approval has dropped but remains strong in the wake of controversy over his administration’s withholding of data regarding nursing home deaths during the pandemic (Politico). The poll, which was conducted Feb. 12 and Feb. 21, found that 57% of voters approved of Cuomo and 38% disapproved. Politico writes, “That figure is down from the 63-33 Cuomo polled in a pair of Morning Consult surveys released in late January and earlier this month.” Even so, Politico notes, “it’s still a big jump from the pre-pandemic days. Morning Consult had Cuomo polling at 47-42 at the end of 2019 and 49-40 around the time he coasted to a third term in 2018.” As we covered in a previous brief, a prior Siena College poll found essentially no change following the controversy.

Minimum Wage Proposal Divides Democrats

As the House of Representatives prepares to pass President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package, divisions are apparent among Senate Democrats over the proposed minimum wage hike to $15 included in the bill (WSJ). Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) have both expressed opposition to the hike in the bill. However, the Wall Street Journal reports, “10 other Senate Democrats haven’t signed onto stand-alone legislation increasing the minimum wage to that level and some have voiced objections to the current structure of the pay boost, setting the stage for possible revisions.” Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) commented, “It would require some changes I would think to the minimum wage to get to the 50 votes we need.” Senator John Hickenlooper (D-CO) has also expressed concern about the potential impact on small businesses. One concern remains whether the proposal could be passed through reconciliation. Given the 50-50 split of the Senate, it is unlikely that a hike could break a filibuster, as we have covered previously. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who chairs the budget committee, however, continues to express optimism over the potential for its passage, stating, “I think we’re going to pass it as it is,” and adding, “The Democrats are going to support the president of the United States and the overwhelming majority of the American people want to pass this Covid emergency bill.”

U.S. Economy

Fed Likely to Maintain Near Zero Interest Rates

On Tuesday during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed would keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future (WSJ). Powell said, “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals,” adding that the near-zero rates would continue until “substantial further progress has been made,” which he said, “is likely to take some time.” Bonus Read: “Tech Stocks Pare Losses as Fed Looks Dovish to Investors,” (WSJ).

Pandemic Drives Home Depot/Macy’s Economic Trend Differences

Over the pandemic, two retail companies, Home Depot and Macy’s, have had different experiences that are likely to continue, reports the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The two retailers have been on opposite sides of the Covid-19 pandemic. Home Depot’s revenue increased 20% in the company’s latest fiscal year as Americans spent more time—and money—fixing and renovating their homes. Annual sales at Macy’s tumbled nearly 30% as consumers bought less apparel for going outside, including to work.” Richard McPhail, Home Depot’s finance chief, stated, “The strong and consistent demand environment we’ve seen over the past nine months has continued into February.” Yet McPhail noted that uncertainty clouds their ability to project the future. Meanwhile, Macy’s Chief Executive Jeff Gennette commented, “What we’re expecting is that we’re going to see much of what we saw in the fourth quarter going through the first half.” 

Bonus Read: “Companies Put the Best Face on Covid-19’s Financial Impact,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Pandemic Reshaping Oscars Process

The pandemic is reshaping the way movies are made and nominated for Oscars, the Washington Post reports (WaPo). The Post writes, “The pandemic has upended the rites of award season, moving some panel discussions to Zoom and scrapping many others. In its place, voters are delving into films via a screen in their living rooms, watching on a portal set up by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. It is neither a social nor simple process: A voter opening up the screening app recently would have found themselves confronted with 177 films to consider, with little guidance on which to watch.” The Post interviewed “14 executives and consultants who lead voter-influence campaigns” with many describing the level of disruption and how it “could bring a slew of dark horses and underdogs to the Oscar stage when that show airs April 25.”

Bonus Read: “Simone Biles Hasn’t Competed in More Than a Year. She’s Not Alone,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Eyder Peralta outlines the similarities in inequity between the global HIV crisis and the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine (NPR).

Kara Swisher writes on lessons for resilience from dog sledders and their dogs (NYT).

Joe Pinsker outlines when life may return to normal (Atlantic). 

Allison Hope discusses how the pandemic has created a culture of paranoia for many (CNN).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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