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May 24, 2021 - Brief Issue 202
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
Covid-19 Cases Are Down in U.S., But Vaccination Levels Vary Dramatically Between Regions (Health & Science)
Researchers Identify Specific Blood Marker That Measures Vaccine Success (Health & Science)
CDC Looks Into Heart Problems Reported in Young People Post-Vaccination (Health & Science)
Experts Say When It Comes to Covid-19 Risk Factors, PCOS Deserves More Attention (Health & Science)
India’s Virus Toll Passes 300,000 (Around the World)
U.K. Plan Was Herd Immunity, Says Former Aide (Around the World)
Second Doses Lagging Across Africa as Indian Manufacturer Focuses on Domestic Supply (Around the World)
Senator Paul Says He Won’t Get Vaccinated Contrary to CDC Recommendation Amid Government Effort to Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy (U.S. Government & Politics)
Vaccination Expansion Holds Potential to Undercut Biden’s School Covid Testing Plan (U.S. Government & Politics)
Nursing Homes Use Trump-Era Protections to Avoid Liability Over Covid Deaths (U.S. Government & Politics)
Biden, Federal Reserve Diverge From Critics Over State of the Economy (U.S. Economy)
Home Prices Hit Record High, Pace of Purchases Slow (U.S. Economy)
Masking Divides Sandusky, Ohio and Other Cities and Towns (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 33,117,923 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 589,893 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 285,720,586 vaccine doses, with 49.2% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 39.2% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 167,229,205 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,464,997 deaths.
Covid-19 Cases Are Down in U.S., But Vaccination Levels Vary Dramatically Between Regions
With vaccination levels climbing, new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have dropped below 30,000 a day, the lowest in almost a year (NYT). Eight states have hit the milestone of vaccinating 70% of their adult populations – plus, over 600,000 teens between 12 and 15 years old have been vaccinated (CNN, CNN). Yet this progress is distributed unequally across the country. Almost all of the New England states have vaccinated over 60% of adults, while in much of the South, that figure is below 40% (NYT). Experts fear that the longer vaccine-hesitant pockets of the country hold out, the more time the virus will have to mutate its way around currently available vaccines.
Tackling low vaccination rates is a complex process – vaccine-hesitant Americans cite worries about side effects, access, and the speed at which the shots were developed. Cultural views on science, government, and autonomy also play a role. The Biden administration is trying to support community-based vaccination campaigns, and a number of states are offering lottery cash prizes to those who get vaccinated (WaPo, CNN). Some experts wonder if the best move is for employers to mandate or offer vaccines; 20% of Americans said they would be more likely to get the vaccine if it were provided at their workplace. “You have the carrot and stick,” said Thomas LaVeist, dean of the School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine at Tulane University. “I’m beginning to think that the stick is the more likely scenario.”
Researchers Identify Specific Blood Marker That Measures Vaccine Success
An Australian study published in Nature pinpointed a specific marker for measuring Covid-19 vaccine efficacy – a finding that immunologist Daniel Altmann of Imperial College London called a “holy grail” for tackling the disease (Nature). A University of Sydney team reviewed data on neutralizing antibodies, immune system molecules that prevent infection, from clinical trials for seven major vaccines. Neutralizing antibody levels measured early on in trial participants’ blood were strongly correlated with vaccine efficacy results from later trials. And, the authors claimed, even if a vaccine generates 80% less antibody production than natural infection with Covid-19, that translates to a protectiveness of 50% because of the specificity of the immune response induced by a vaccine. “Even low antibody levels, lower than we thought, will probably see you through,” Altmann said, explaining that after just one dose of vaccine, the body develops significant immunity from neutralizing antibodies. According to a co-author of the study, James Triccas, neutralizing antibodies are such a powerful indicator of vaccine efficacy that measuring them earlier on “alleviates the need to do larger, more expensive and time-consuming phase III trials.”
CDC Looks Into Heart Problems Reported in Young People Post-Vaccination
An advisory committee to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating several cases of myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart, in teenagers and young adults who received the Covid-19 vaccine (NYT). There have been “relatively few” instances of myocarditis reported, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices said, and most were mild. The majority of these cases occurred in males, about four days after a second shot of mRNA vaccine. Thus far, the incidence of myocarditis doesn’t appear to be higher following vaccination than it normally is among young people, but experts are still asking doctors to report any potential vaccine-related complications out of caution. “It may simply be a coincidence that some people are developing myocarditis after vaccination,” said infectious disease specialist Dr. Celine Gounder of Bellevue Hospital Center in New York. “It’s more likely for something like that to happen by chance, because so many people are getting vaccinated right now.”
Experts Say When It Comes to Covid-19 Risk Factors, PCOS Deserves More Attention
Polycystic ovary syndrome, known as PCOS, isn’t listed on any Covid-19 comorbidity list, but women with the condition are likely at elevated risk for contracting the virus (CNN). PCOS is common, affecting about 1 in 10 women of “childbearing age.” The disease is characterized by hormonal issues that can cause irregular menstrual cycles, ovarian cysts, fertility issues, and many harder-to-trace health problems – like heart disease, weight gain, and high blood pressure. A U.K study found that women with PCOS are 51% more likely to get Covid-19 than those without, 28% when adjusting for other risk factors. As lead author Anuradhaa Subramanian explained, “it's not just about the risk factors associated with PCOS, but something in PCOS is actually driving this.” According to another study published in Obstetrics and Gynecology, this elevated risk has a number of explanations. Women with PCOS are more sensitive to androgens, which increase the risk of infection, and they often have chronic inflammation. Plus, PCOS is associated with a host of comorbidities known to increase the risk of both contracting Covid-19 and developing severe symptoms. Experts are calling for more research into the connection between Covid-19 and PCOS, which is often dismissed as a women’s health issue that only affects the reproductive system. "My advice would be to include women with PCOS as ... potentially a high-risk group," said Dr. Katherine Sherif, chief of Women's Health at Jefferson University's Department of Medicine.
Pfizer to Support Developing Nations With 2 Billion Vaccine Doses
Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said Friday that his company, alongside partner BioNTech, will deliver 2 billion doses of coronavirus vaccine to developing countries over the next year and a half (WSJ). “It is our hope that this will accelerate our ability to help save even more lives across the globe,” Bourla said at the European Global Health Summit in Rome, promising the first 1 billion doses this year. He said the company has been discounting its prices for some poorer countries. Friday’s pledge includes already-established vaccine deals, including the 40 million doses Pfizer committed to COVAX, the World Health Organization’s equitable vaccine distribution initiative. The company did not announce which countries will receive the doses not yet accounted for. Meanwhile, big drug producers like Pfizer are resisting a push from developing nations to waive vaccine patents in order to boost global supply.
Bonus Reads: “During the First Weekend With Few Restrictions, Business Owners Navigate Freedom and Safety,” (WaPo); “Skepticism of Science in a Pandemic Isn't New. It Helped Fuel the AIDS Crisis,” (NPR).
Around the World
India’s Virus Toll Passes 300,000
On Monday India crossed the grim milestone of more than 300,000 people lost to the coronavirus, the third-highest number in the world, though the true number is thought to be even higher (AP). While infection rates seem to be slowing in big cities, outbreaks in rural areas have completely overwhelmed weak healthcare systems that lack the resources to deal with the number of infected people. In New Delhi, residents have died at home with no oxygen as hospitals have exhausted supplies. In Mumbai, patients have died in crowded hospital corridors. Slowed vaccine deliveries have forced many people to miss their second doses and a rare but often fatal fungal infection is increasing in frequency and worrying doctors. India is the world’s largest vaccine-producing nation and has fully vaccinated just over 41.6 million people, or only 3.8% of its nearly 1.4 billion population. Bonus Read: “As India Stumbles, One State Charts Its Own Covid Course” (NYT).
U.K. Plan Was Herd Immunity, Says Former Aide
Dominic Cummings, a former top aide to Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, said that the U.K. government was pursuing a plan of herd immunity to combat the coronavirus at the outset of the pandemic (Politico). Cummings, who was fired by Johnson in November, said in a 42-tweet tirade late Saturday that the plan “was supposed to be ‘world class’ but turned out to be part disaster, part non-existent." Cummings said the plan to achieve herd immunity by mass infection was abandoned only two weeks before the first lockdown, when ministers were warned that it would lead to “hundreds of thousands choking to death” in hospitals. Cummings said that in early March 2020 “No10 was made aware by various people" that the official plan would "lead to catastrophe. It was then replaced by Plan B. But how ‘herd immunity by Sep’ could have been the plan until that week is a fundamental issue in the whole disaster.” Cummings is scheduled to appear before a House of Commons select committee inquiry into the handling of Covid-19.
In Pakistan, Private Hospitals Sell Vaccines to Wealthy Patients
Pakistan has authorized private sales of coronavirus vaccines to those who can afford it, raising serious concerns about inequality in the healthcare system (NYT). The United States and other wealthy nations have bought most of the world’s vaccine supply to protect their own citizens while less developed countries are scrambling over the leftovers. As a result, some countries have allowed doses to be sold privately because it means speeding up vaccination drives overall. But critics say that this method perpetuates the divide between rich and poor and reflects the global disparities in vaccine rollouts. In Pakistan, the cost of the Sputnik V vaccine at a private hospital is about $80, an exorbitant amount in a country where the average worker makes about $110 a month. But officials in Pakistan reason that the private program could help the general population by freeing up doses for low-income residents. If wealthier individuals can purchase doses of the Sputnik V vaccine, they wouldn’t need the free doses, which are made by Sinopharm of China. Pakistan is continuing to battle the virus, with nearly 2,500 infections confirmed each day in recent weeks. However, testing is limited so experts believe many cases are going unreported.
Second Doses Lagging Across Africa as Indian Manufacturer Focuses on Domestic Supply
Across Africa, about 20 million people are due for the second dose of their coronavirus vaccine and about 50 million people should have had their first dose by the end of this month, but vaccine supplies are virtually nonexistent after the main manufacturer supplying the continent, the Serum Institute of India, redirected its supply to domestic use (NPR). More than 90% of the doses that were supposed to be administered in April and May were slated to come from SII, along with most of Africa’s vaccine supply for the rest of 2021. The doses were purchased on behalf of African countries by COVAX. "We have been thrown into total confusion as to where we should reach out to get the additional doses," says Dr. John Nkengasong, head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention — an agency created for the region by African governments. Although COVAX is not the only source of vaccines for African countries, doses obtained from other sources won’t be available for months. France, Sweden, Norway, and the United States have all recently pledged to donate doses to African countries, but the question of whether those doses will arrive in time to stave off fallout like that seen in India remains.
U.S. Government & Politics
Senator Paul Says He Won’t Get Vaccinated Contrary to CDC Recommendation Amid Government Effort to Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy
On Sunday, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) said that he will not get vaccinated, arguing that because he has already had the virus his risk is lower (Hill, NBC). Paul made the comment to conservative radio host John Catsimatidis on his WABC 770 AM radio show. Paul stated, “Until they show me evidence that people who have already had the infection are dying in large numbers or being hospitalized or getting very sick, I just made my own personal decision that I’m not getting vaccinated because I’ve already had the disease and I have natural immunity.” The CDC currently recommends that people get vaccinated even if they have tested positive for Covid, writing in a Frequently Asked Questions page, “Yes, you should be vaccinated regardless of whether you already had COVID-19. That’s because experts do not yet know how long you are protected from getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19. Even if you have already recovered from COVID-19, it is possible—although rare—that you could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 again.” Paul’s comment comes as the government is trying to push vaccination while vaccine hesitancy is increasingly limiting its rate of vaccination.
Vaccination Expansion Holds Potential to Undercut Biden’s School Covid Testing Plan
As growing numbers of Americans become vaccinated, some schools are opening without establishing testing regimes called for by Biden’s policy proposals on school reopening, potentially undercutting Biden’s plans on the issue (Politico). Politico reports, “while the White House announced in March that it would spend $10 billion in stimulus money to support testing programs in schools across the country, planning has been left largely to states, cities and local school districts. The CDC began distributing the money to state and local health departments in early April, but it is not clear how much schools have spent in the waning months of the 2020-2021 school year. Now, with vaccination slowing the virus’s spread, some schools are reopening without the kind of widespread Covid-19 screening that Biden once envisioned as crucial.” Many officials and education and health experts still argue testing is critical as kids under 12 cannot yet be vaccinated. Politico writes, “But with new infections steadily dropping as the summer looms, a debate is brewing about what role widespread screening programs will play in a world where an increasing number of Americans are vaccinated.”
Nursing Homes Use Trump-Era Protections to Avoid Liability Over Covid Deaths
Nursing homes are facing a wave of lawsuits seeking to hold them liable for Covid deaths that occurred as the pandemic ravaged nursing homes across the country, but nursing homes are using a law passed under the Trump administration, and the Trump administration’s guidance on the law to shield themselves (Politico). Politico reports, “About 200 lawsuits in nearly half the states have already been filed, and the industry says it’s bracing for many more in the coming months given the virus’ outsize toll on residents and staff. But an emergency preparedness law expanded by Congress last year limiting health providers’ exposure to coronavirus-related lawsuits — and the Trump administration’s broad interpretation of those protections — are upending litigation against nursing homes.” The protections are leading dozens of nursing homes to seek to relocate their cases to federal court so they can take advantage of the liability protections. Whether the strategy will work remains unclear and most cases are not yet decided. Politico notes, “In recent weeks, a federal judge in California found that a nursing home was shielded by federal liability protections, and another in Louisiana agreed to consider a similar request. While most of the lawsuits are still pending, judges in at least 30 other cases have rejected nursing homes’ requests to change venues. But even when the courts have ruled against nursing homes, legal experts say that appeals could drag out the cases for months or even years longer and discourage others from filing lawsuits.”
Biden Signs Hate Crime Legislation Aimed at Anti-Asian Crimes
On Thursday, President Biden signed hate crime legislation into law that focuses on anti-Asian crimes (Politico). In signing the law, Biden stated, “Every time we’re silent, every time we let hate flourish, we make a lie of who we are as a nation.” The law is aimed at addressing wide reports of surging anti-Asian hate crimes over the past year, which have been often attributed to the politics around the pandemic. Politico writes, “The newly enacted law would establish a position within the Justice Department centered on anti-Asian hate crimes and allocate resources to enhance state and local reporting.”
U.S. Economy
Biden, Federal Reserve Diverge From Critics Over State of the Economy
Amid growing criticism from Republicans, investors, and a few liberal economists, President Biden and the Federal Reserve continue to view current signals of economic trouble as temporary and the threat of inflation as limited (NYT). The divergence in assessment is showing up in political debates over issues ranging from new infrastructure proposals to the moves by many Republican governors to limit or end the expanded unemployment benefit. Bonus Read: “Inflation Forces Investors to Scramble for Solutions,” (WSJ).
Home Prices Hit Record High, Pace of Purchases Slow
As we have covered in prior briefs, the pandemic has seen a boom in the housing market. Now, sales are starting to slow as prices hit record highs (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “America’s home-buying frenzy is cooling off for the first time since it heated up last year, as limited inventory and record high prices are excluding potential buyers. Existing-home sales fell 2.7% in April from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.85 million, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. April marked the third straight monthly decline, the longest downward stretch since last spring, when Covid-19-related lockdowns eased and have boomed in the past year.” Many of the forces that drove the boom persist. However, housing stock is limited and the increased interest has spiked prices, encouraging the market to cool off. The Journal writes, “The median existing-home price rose to $341,600 in April, the highest on record, NAR said. The annual price appreciation of more than 19% was the strongest in data going back to 1999.”
Bonus Read: “Bosses Still Aren’t Sure Remote Workers Have ‘Hustle,’” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Bonus Read: “Discord in San Francisco Schools, On Race and Reopening, Looms Large,” (WaPo).
Masking Divides Sandusky, Ohio and Other Cities and Towns
In Sandusky, Ohio, like many towns and cities across the country, the question of whether or not to wear a mask has become a politicized issue that divides communities (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Business owners in cities like Sandusky can’t blame their decisions on a faraway corporate parent. Their decisions on masks have meant confronting friends, neighbors and co-workers on a daily basis. In the 60% of America that lives in cities with fewer than 50,000 people, that can be a deeply personal task.” Eric Wobser, the city manager told the Journal, “We’re not big enough that people can segregate from each other,” adding, “We only have one downtown. If you’re going to go downtown, you’re going there whether you’re Republican, Democrat, Black or white.” The challenges for businesses in divided cities have increased as the CDC relaxed its guidance on masking placing more of the decision in the hands of business owners. Wendy Parmet, a professor at Northeastern University, told the Journal, that many businesses “have been relying on the guidance and the mandates to take the onus off of them.”
Bonus Read: “Vermont Vies for More Residents After Newcomers Flocked to State During Covid-19,” (WSJ).
Analysis & Arguments
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