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The Carbon-Removals Market, AI's Power Thirst; Rare Earths and EVs
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Welcome back: In most commodity markets, traders can hedge on future prices knowing that a unit of the goods they are trading—be it a ton of copper, a barrel of crude oil, or a bushel of wheat—will be the same each time they trade it and can be exchanged for an almost identical unit.
The carbon market could operate in the same way, with one ton of carbon being equivalent to the next. But companies don’t see different types of carbon-removal credit as interchangeable, and they hold vastly different values. A credit from a forest-planting project costs $80 a ton while a top-of-the-range direct air capture credit can come in at $1,000 a ton.
This is one reason why almost no one wants to be a part of it, writes WSJ Pro Sustainable Business's Yusuf Khan. See below for his full story.
Meanwhile, a search on a platform like ChatGPT can use at least 10 times the amount of energy as a google search. Trends suggest that by 2030, data centers for training the largest AI models will require more than five gigawatts of electricity—or roughly enough to power about 5,000 Walmart stores. Developers racing to take advantage of the AI mania are getting frustrated by bottlenecks in power delivery.
Finally, Dysprosium is in many ways the archetypal rare-earth mineral. It was discovered in 1886 by a French chemist, who named the new element after the Greek word for “difficult to obtain.” While dysprosium is mined in China, Myanmar, Australia and the U.S., transforming it into a usable material is a costly multistep process and most of the expertise for refining the element is concentrated in China—leaving the EV industry in a panic.
Read on for more on these stories and other sustainability news.
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Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
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How Can Cities Harness AI for Sustainability, Resilience? Follow the Leaders
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A study of how 250 cities worldwide use artificial intelligence to tackle their most pressing challenges distills seven practices of ‘AI leader’ cities that provide a roadmap for how to optimize AI. Read More
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It Could Be a $250 Billion Market, But Almost No One Is Interested
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Enhanced rock weathering involves spreading dust from crushed rocks over soil to capture carbon. Photo: UNDO
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On an overcast spring morning this year, a group of bankers, investors and officials from some of the world’s largest companies gathered at the Royal Institution in London to discuss technologies they hoped could save the world from the effects of climate change.
Despite their optimism about advances in how carbon can be removed from the atmosphere, they reached a dispiriting conclusion as they sat around a table in a centuries-old building that has witnessed scientific breakthroughs going back to the Victorian era: The market that could drive carbon removal doesn’t exist in any meaningful way and trying to scale it at the moment is a fruitless task, WSJ Pro Sustainable Business's Yusuf Khan writes.
The problem is almost no one wants a part of it. Companies are wary of the risks of investing in nascent technologies and the criticism they could face if removal projects don’t deliver as promised. Many also fear blowback for spending money on carbon removal instead of investing that money on trying to reduce their own emissions.
Currently, much of the market is dominated by a handful of technology companies, with Microsoft by far the largest buyer, making up roughly 35% of purchases. When you exclude nature-based removals and consider just the engineered solutions, only 24.3 million tons of carbon removals have been sold, according to CDR.fyi. That is just 0.2% of what is required. Microsoft makes up 76% of these engineered removals purchases, while a number of other tech firms, including payments business Stripe, search giant Google and consulting firm McKinsey under an umbrella organization called Frontier, together account for another 5% of purchases.
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U.S. Needs More Power for AI—but Equipment Is Pricey and Scarce
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A solar farm outside of Orlando, Florida. Photo: Paul Hennessy/Zuma Press
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The U.S. needs huge amounts of electricity to power the AI race, but it is getting harder to deliver. Investors and developers are putting financing decisions on hold as they try to determine how much more their projects will cost, the WSJ's Jennifer Hiller and Katherine Blunt write.
About 28% of planned wind, solar and battery projects have been delayed or canceled, according to an Atlas Public Policy analysis of government energy data. That is about 42,000 megawatts of capacity, roughly on par with the existing solar, storage and wind energy in California.
President Trump’s trade war has put a wrinkle in some of the development plans. Although he has paused some of his threatened tariffs until July, 25% steel and aluminum levies are still in place, as are 145% duties on imports from China. The U.S. recently also imposed massive tariffs on solar imports from four Southeast Asian countries.
The tariffs are affecting energy projects of all kinds, from renewables to fossil fuels. One U.S. developer is still largely reliant on Chinese imports of battery cells needed to build large-scale storage projects, despite working for years to source steel, solar panels and other materials from U.S. companies.
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Why an Obscure Element Has the EV Industry in a Panic
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Caught in the middle of the U.S.-China trade war is a Chiclet-size magnet that is vital to every new electric vehicle on the road.
The magnet is made with dysprosium. Atomic number 66. A rare-earth mineral with a silver metallic luster. More than 90% of refined dysprosium comes from China, and it is used in magnets that power everything from medical equipment to EV motors, the WSJ's Sean McLain reports.
In its retaliation against U.S. tariffs, China slowed exports of several rare-earth minerals and magnets this month, setting off a panic among U.S. automakers. “You cannot build the motor without the magnet,” said a senior automotive executive. “If we want electric-vehicle production to continue to happen in the United States, this has to be solved.”
Under the new Chinese rules, U.S. companies have to apply for a license to export the minerals from the Asian country, a monthslong process that leaves carmakers uncertain if they will be able to replenish their supplies of this precious material. The potential chaos related to the slowing of one link in the automotive supply chain illustrates how dependent the modern car industry is on global trade.
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Move over, quinoa. There’s a new "it" crop in town—sorghum. (WSJ)
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United Airlines invests in ultra-fuel efficient blended wing aircraft developer Jetzero. (ESG Today)
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European airlines’ emissions on course to exceed pre-pandemic levels. (FT)
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Startups are turning these unconventional ingredients into butter and oil. (Bloomberg)
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Building the world’s biggest plane to help catch the wind. (NYT)
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Duke Energy buys 11 GE Vernova natural gas turbines. (Data Center Dynamics)
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