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Fed Governors Could Break Ranks as Trump Intensifies Powell Pressure
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This week’s Federal Reserve meeting could produce something that hasn’t happened since 1993: more than one governor voting against the Fed chair. The groundwork was laid weeks ago. Meanwhile, the next piece of significant economic data out today—the initial reading on gross domestic product for the second quarter—could be deceptively reassuring. And in Canada, there is unanimity the country's central bank will leave its main interest rate unchanged on Wednesday amid elevated underlying inflation and a recent showing of labor-market resiliency.
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Fed Governors May Break Ranks as Trump Intensifies Powell Pressure
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Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg News, Sean
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have signaled they favor maintaining a wait-and-see approach at this week’s meeting. The potential dissenters—governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—happen to be President Trump’s two appointees. Both have voiced support for cutting rates, which Trump also has publicly demanded.
Their break with Powell coincides with Trump intensifying his pressure campaign against the Fed chair, from surprise visits to the Fed to public attacks on the chair’s leadership, all while potential successors jockey for position ahead of Powell’s term ending next May.
The last time more than one governor dissented in a single meeting was more than 30 years ago, a streak that includes 259 policy meetings.
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GDP Growth Will Look Good. Why It’s a Head Fake.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the inflation-adjusted gain in GDP during the second quarter at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet is that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the second quarter. That would amount to a significant reversal from the decline of 0.5% during the three months of the year. (Barron's)
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Consumer-Confidence Survey Improved in July
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American consumers’ economic mood improved this month, but remained clouded by concerns about tariffs and the labor market, according to The Conference Board, a research group that runs a monthly survey. The Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index climbed to 97.2, from 95.2 in June, the group said Tuesday.
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U.S. Trade Deficit for Goods Shrinks
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Key Developments Around the World
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Bank of Canada to Hold Rates, Forecasters Anticipate Autumn Cuts
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All 13 economists surveyed last week by The Wall Street Journal predicted Bank of Canada officials would leave the target for the overnight rate steady at 2.75%, or 2.25 points lower than last year’s peak. This would mark the third-straight decision at which the Bank of Canada chose to maintain the status quo.
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China Politburo Holds off on Further Stimulus
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Singapore’s Central Bank Stands Pat as U.S. Tariffs Loom
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Singapore's labor market strengthened in the second quarter of this year, in line with strong economic growth. Total employment, excluding migrant domestic workers, grew by 8,400 during the quarter, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Manpower on Wednesday. The latest figure is higher than the 2,300 increase in the first quarter, but lower than the 11,300 expansion in the second quarter of last year. (Dow Jones Newswires)
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Tariff Detente Lifts Global Growth Outlook, IMF Says
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7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
8:30 a.m.: Advance estimate GDP
9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
10 a.m.: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment
10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales Index
2 p.m.: U.S. interest rate decision
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7:30 a.m.: Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 a.m.: Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 a.m.: Employment Cost Index
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:45 a.m.: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
2 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Closed Meeting
3 p.m.: Agricultural Prices
4:30 p.m.: Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 p.m.: Foreign Central Bank Holdings
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Kugler Absent From Fed Meeting This Week
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As the Fed's two-day July policy meeting begins ahead of its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, the committee is down a member. Fed governor Adriana Kugler is absent due to a personal matter, the Fed says. That will likely mean that 11 FOMC members will vote on this week's policy decision rather than the usual 12. Despite the possibility of two dissents in favor of lower rates from governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, the committee should still have a comfortable majority for holding rates steady. Under Fed policy, reserve-bank presidents can substitute for each other as alternates if one is missing for a vote, but governor seats don't have alternates. — Matt Grossman
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Fed Could End Quantitative Tightening Program by Year-End
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The Federal Reserve is expected to end its quantitative tightening program by the end of 2025, CreditSights analysts say in a note. Quantitative tightening is a process in which central banks unwind the bond holdings they acquired during periods of quantitative easing. A move to end the QT program is likely to allow the Treasury to issue less debt, easing pressure on Treasury yields, the analysts say. — Miriam Mukuru
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Fed's Powell Might Open the Door for September Rate Cut
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The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged later in the day, with focus on Chair Jerome Powell's comments, says Danske Bank's Filip Andersson in a note. "Unclear data will not allow the Fed to pre-commit, but Powell could verbally open the door for a cut in the September meeting," the co-head of fixed income and forex research says. Markets price in around 17 basis points of rate cuts in September and a cumulative 45 basis points by the year-end, according to LSEG. Danske expects a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, followed by quarterly reductions until September 2026. — Emese Bartha
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U.S. exporters—particularly capital-intensive manufacturers of aircraft, defense equipment, consumer products and semiconductors—scored significant tax cuts in President Trump’s new megalaw..
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The eurozone economy slowed in the three months through June, but showed a resilience that suggests it could recover in the months ahead despite the higher tariffs its exports now face in the U.S.
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France's gross domestic product increased by 0.3% over the quarter, accelerating from 0.1% in the first three months of the year and beating economists' estimates for an unchanged rate of growth. (Dow Jones Newswires)
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Australia’s inflation continued to ease in the second quarter, raising bets that the central bank will deliver its third interest rate cut next month.
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Oil prices hit their highest level in more than a month on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he intends to place sanctions on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow doesn’t agree to a cease fire in Ukraine within 10 days. (Barron's)
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.
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